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Portland State University

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Bayesian Networks

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Full-Text Articles in Engineering

Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick Jan 2023

Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This …


Data From: Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick Dec 2022

Data From: Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Datasets

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This …


Graphical Models In Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Networks, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick Jul 2021

Graphical Models In Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Networks, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) are both probabilistic graphical modeling methodologies used in machine learning and artificial intelligence. There are RA models that are statistically equivalent to BN models and there are also models unique to RA and models unique to BN. The primary goal of this paper is to unify these two methodologies via a lattice of structures that offers an expanded set of models to represent complex systems more accurately or more simply. The conceptualization of this lattice also offers a framework for additional innovations beyond what is presented here. Specifically, this paper integrates RA and …