Engineering Commons^™

An Overview Of Elements And Relations: Aspects Of A Scientific Metaphysics, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A talk on my book, Elements and Relations: Aspects of a Scientific Metaphysics. Book description:

This book develops the core proposition that systems theory is an attempt to construct an “exact and scientific metaphysics,” a system of general ideas central to science that can be expressed mathematically. Collectively, these ideas would constitute a non-reductionist “theory of everything” unlike what is being sought in physics. Inherently transdisciplinary, systems theory offers ideas and methods that are relevant to all of the sciences and also to professional fields such as systems engineering, public policy, business, and social work. To demonstrate the generality …

Systems Thinking Activities Used In K-12 For Up To Two Decades, Diana Fisher, Systems Thinking Association

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Infusing systems thinking activities in pre-college education (grades K-12) means updating precollege education so it includes a study of many systemic behavior patterns that are ubiquitous in the real world. Systems thinking tools include those using both paper and pencil and the computer and enhance learning in the classroom making it more student-centered, more active, and allowing students to analyze problems that have been heretofore beyond the scope of K-12 classrooms. Students in primary school have used behavior over time graphs to demonstrate dynamics described in story books, like the Lorax, and created stock-flow diagrams to describe what was needed …

Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This …

System Dynamics Modeling For Traumatic Brain Injury: Mini-Review Of Applications, Erin S. Kenzie, Elle L. Parks, Nancy Carney, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a highly complex phenomenon involving a cascade of disruptions across biomechanical, neurochemical, neurological, cognitive, emotional, and social systems. Researchers and clinicians urgently need a rigorous conceptualization of brain injury that encompasses nonlinear and mutually causal relations among the factors involved, as well as sources of individual variation in recovery trajectories. System dynamics, an approach from systems science, has been used for decades in fields such as management and ecology to model nonlinear feedback dynamics in complex systems. In this mini-review, we summarize some recent uses of this approach to better understand acute injury mechanisms, recovery …

Reducing Opioid Use Disorder And Overdose Deaths In The United States: A Dynamic Modeling Analysis, Erin J. Stringfellow, Tse Yang Lim, Keith Humphreys, Catherine Digennero, Celia Stafford, Elizabeth Beaulieu, Jack Homer, Wayne Wakeland, Multiple Additional Authors

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; …

Reconstructability Analysis: Discrete Multivariate Modeling, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

An introduction to Reconstructability Analysis for the Discrete Multivariate Modeling course and for other purposes.

Graphical Models In Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Networks, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) are both probabilistic graphical modeling methodologies used in machine learning and artificial intelligence. There are RA models that are statistically equivalent to BN models and there are also models unique to RA and models unique to BN. The primary goal of this paper is to unify these two methodologies via a lattice of structures that offers an expanded set of models to represent complex systems more accurately or more simply. The conceptualization of this lattice also offers a framework for additional innovations beyond what is presented here. Specifically, this paper integrates RA and …

Universal Biological Motions For Educational Robot Theatre And Games, Rajesh Venkatachalapathy, Martin Zwick, Adam Slowik, Kai Brooks, Mikhail Mayers, Roman Minko, Tyler Hull, Bliss Brass, Marek Perkowski

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Paper presents a concept that is new to robotics education and social robotics. It is based on theatrical games, in motions for social robots and animatronic robots. Presented here motion model is based on Drift Differential Model from biology and Fokker-Planck equations. This model is used in various areas of science to describe many types of motion. The model was successfully verified on various simulated mobile robots and a motion game of three robots called "Mouse and Cheese."

Using Information Theory To Extract Patterns From Categorical Raster Data, David Percy

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Information theory -- Reconstructability Analysis (RA) implemented in the Occam software -- was used to extract patterns from National Land Cover Data. The aim was to predict temporal change in evergreen forests from time-lagged and spatially adjacent states. The NLCD satellite data were preprocessed with Python and submitted to Occam for analysis, and Occam output was also explored with R-studio. The effectiveness of RA methodology for the analysis of this type of categorical space-time grid data was demonstrated.

Sensitivity Analysis Of An Agent-Based Simulation Model Using Reconstructability Analysis, Andey M. Nunes, Martin Zwick, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability analysis, a methodology based on information theory and graph theory, was used to perform a sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model. The NetLogo BehaviorSpace tool was employed to do a full 2^k factorial parameter sweep on Uri Wilensky’s Wealth Distribution NetLogo model, to which a Gini-coefficient convergence condition was added. The analysis identified the most influential predictors (parameters and their interactions) of the Gini coefficient wealth inequality outcome. Implications of this type of analysis for building and testing agent-based simulation models are discussed.

Binary Decision Diagrams And Crisp Possibilistic Reconstructability Analysis, Martin Zwick, Alan Mishchenko

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The paper discusses the application of Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) in the reconstructability analysis of crisp possibilistic systems. In particular, we show how BDDs can be used to represent set-theoretic relations and implement the three basic operations of reconstructability analysis.

Globally Convergent Approximate Dynamic Programming Applied To An Autolander, J.J. Murray, Richard Saeks, C.J. Cox, George G. Lendaris

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A globally convergent nonlinear Approximate Dynamic Programming algorithm is described, and an implementation of the algorithm in the linear case is developed. The resultant linear Approximate Dynamic Programming algorithm is illustrated via the design of an autolander for the NASA X-43 research aircraft, without a priori knowledge of the X-43's flight dynamics.