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Articles 1 - 30 of 48
Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer
Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes …
Technical Note: The Impact Of Spatial Scale In Bias Correction Of Climate Model Output For Hydrologic Impact Studies, Edwin P. Maurer, Darren L. Ficklin, W. Wang
Technical Note: The Impact Of Spatial Scale In Bias Correction Of Climate Model Output For Hydrologic Impact Studies, Edwin P. Maurer, Darren L. Ficklin, W. Wang
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Statistical downscaling is a commonly used technique for translating large-scale climate model output to a scale appropriate for assessing impacts. To ensure downscaled meteorology can be used in climate impact studies, downscaling must correct biases in the large-scale signal. A simple and generally effective method for accommodating systematic biases in large-scale model output is quantile mapping, which has been applied to many variables and shown to reduce biases on average, even in the presence of non-stationarity. Quantile-mapping bias correction has been applied at spatial scales ranging from hundreds of kilometers to individual points, such as weather station locations. Since water …
Improved Bias Correction Techniques For Hydrological Simulations Of Climate Change, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch
Improved Bias Correction Techniques For Hydrological Simulations Of Climate Change, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction methods, and a new one developed here, are applied to daily maximum temperature and precipitation from 21 GCMs to investigate how different methods alter the climate change signal of the GCM. The quantile mapping (QM) and cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) bias correction methods can significantly alter the GCM’s mean climate change signal, with differences of up to 2°C and 30% points for monthly mean temperature and precipitation, respectively. Equidistant quantile matching (EDCDFm) bias correction …
Climate Change And Stream Temperature Projections In The Columbia River Basin: Habitat Implications Of Spatial Variation In Hydrologic Drivers, Darren L. Ficklin, B. L. Barnhart, J. H. Knouft, Iris T. Stewart-Frey, Edwin P. Maurer, Sally L. Letsinger, G. W. Whittaker
Climate Change And Stream Temperature Projections In The Columbia River Basin: Habitat Implications Of Spatial Variation In Hydrologic Drivers, Darren L. Ficklin, B. L. Barnhart, J. H. Knouft, Iris T. Stewart-Frey, Edwin P. Maurer, Sally L. Letsinger, G. W. Whittaker
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). …
An Enhanced Archive Facilitating Climate Impacts And Adaptation Analysis, Edwin P. Maurer, Levi Brekke, Tom Pruitt, Bridget Thrasher, J. Long, Philip B. Duffy, Michael D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan, James W. Arnold
An Enhanced Archive Facilitating Climate Impacts And Adaptation Analysis, Edwin P. Maurer, Levi Brekke, Tom Pruitt, Bridget Thrasher, J. Long, Philip B. Duffy, Michael D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan, James W. Arnold
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
We describe the expansion of a publicly available archive of downscaled climate and hydrology projections for the United States. Those studying or planning to adapt to future climate impacts demand downscaled climate model output for local or regional use. The archive we describe attempts to fulfill this need by providing data in several formats, selectable to meet user needs. Our archive has served as a resource for climate impacts modelers, water managers, educators, and others. Over 1,400 individuals have transferred more than 50 TB of data from the archive. In response to user demands, the archive has expanded from monthly …
Bias Correction Can Modify Climate Model Simulated Precipitation Changes Without Adverse Effect On The Ensemble Mean, Edwin P. Maurer, David W. Pierce
Bias Correction Can Modify Climate Model Simulated Precipitation Changes Without Adverse Effect On The Ensemble Mean, Edwin P. Maurer, David W. Pierce
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated difference in mean precipitation between two eras. This has important implications when the precipitation is used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. The tendency of quantile mapping to alter model-predicted changes is demonstrated using synthetic precipitation distributions and elucidated with a simple theoretical analysis, which shows that the alteration of model-predicted changes can be controlled by the ratio of model to observed variance. To further evaluate the effects of quantile mapping in a more realistic setting, …
A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset Of Land Surface Fluxes And States For The Conterminous United States: Update And Extensions, Ben Livneh, Eric A. Rosenberg, Chiyu Lin, Bart Nijssen, Vimal Mishra, Kostas M. Andreadis, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset Of Land Surface Fluxes And States For The Conterminous United States: Update And Extensions, Ben Livneh, Eric A. Rosenberg, Chiyu Lin, Bart Nijssen, Vimal Mishra, Kostas M. Andreadis, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
This paper describes a publicly available, long-term (1915–2011), hydrologically consistent dataset for the conterminous United States, intended to aid in studies of water and energy exchanges at the land surface. These data are gridded at a spatial resolution of latitude/longitude and are derived from daily temperature and precipitation observations from approximately 20 000 NOAA Cooperative Observer (COOP) stations. The available meteorological data include temperature, precipitation, and wind, as well as derived humidity and downwelling solar and infrared radiation estimated via algorithms that index these quantities to the daily mean temperature, temperature range, and precipitation, and disaggregate them to 3-hourly time …
Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow And Subbasin- Scale Hydrology In The Upper Colorado River Basin, Darren L. Ficklin, Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewert
Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow And Subbasin- Scale Hydrology In The Upper Colorado River Basin, Darren L. Ficklin, Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewert
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6uC for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM …
The Key Role Of Heavy Precipitation Events In Climate Model Disagreements Of Future Annual Precipitation Changes In California, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
The Key Role Of Heavy Precipitation Events In Climate Model Disagreements Of Future Annual Precipitation Changes In California, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This disagreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (>60 mm day−1) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that precipitation frequency will decrease by the …
Errors In Climate Model Daily Precipitation And Temperature Output: Time Invariance And Implications For Bias Correction, Edwin P. Maurer, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan
Errors In Climate Model Daily Precipitation And Temperature Output: Time Invariance And Implications For Bias Correction, Edwin P. Maurer, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" …
Tools For Assessing Climate Impacts On Fish And Wildlife, Chad B. Wilsey, Joshua J. Lawler, Edwin P. Maurer, Donald Mckenzie, Patricia A. Townsend, Richard Gwozdz, James A. Freund, Keala Hagmann, Karen M. Hutten
Tools For Assessing Climate Impacts On Fish And Wildlife, Chad B. Wilsey, Joshua J. Lawler, Edwin P. Maurer, Donald Mckenzie, Patricia A. Townsend, Richard Gwozdz, James A. Freund, Keala Hagmann, Karen M. Hutten
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how …
Making Climate Data Relevant To Decision Making: The Important Details Of Spatial And Temporal Downscaling, Evan H. Girvetz, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Aaron Ruesch, Bridget Thrasher, Chris Zganjar
Making Climate Data Relevant To Decision Making: The Important Details Of Spatial And Temporal Downscaling, Evan H. Girvetz, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Aaron Ruesch, Bridget Thrasher, Chris Zganjar
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
This paper examines potential regional-scale impacts of climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on the hydrologic system, soil and groundwater salinity with associated crop yield reductions. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which were downscaled to the 1,400 km2 study area. We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Significant uncertainty in projected precipitation creates …
Using A Gridded Global Dataset To Characterize Regional Hydroclimate In Central Chile, E.M.C. Demaria, Edwin P. Maurer, J. Sheffield, E. Bustos, D. Poblete, S. Vicuña, F. Meza
Using A Gridded Global Dataset To Characterize Regional Hydroclimate In Central Chile, E.M.C. Demaria, Edwin P. Maurer, J. Sheffield, E. Bustos, D. Poblete, S. Vicuña, F. Meza
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Central Chile is facing dramatic projections of climate change, with a consensus for declining precipitation, negatively affecting hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Rising from sea level to 6000 m within a distance of 200 km, precipitation characterization is difficult because of a lack of long-term observations, especially at higher elevations. For understanding current mean and extreme conditions and recent hydroclimatological change, as well as to provide a baseline for downscaling climate model projections, a temporally and spatially complete dataset of daily meteorology is essential. The authors use a gridded global daily meteorological dataset at 0.25° resolution for the period 1948–2008, …
Probabilistic Estimates Of Future Changes In California Temperature And Precipitation Usingstatistical And Dynamical Downscaling, David W. Pierce, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
Probabilistic Estimates Of Future Changes In California Temperature And Precipitation Usingstatistical And Dynamical Downscaling, David W. Pierce, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar …
Technical Note: Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulated Daily Temperature Extremes With Quantile Mapping, Bridget Thrasher, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Colin Mckellar
Technical Note: Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulated Daily Temperature Extremes With Quantile Mapping, Bridget Thrasher, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Colin Mckellar
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diuWhen applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique …
Development And Application Of A Hydroclimatological Stream Temperature Model Within The Soil And Water Assessment Tool, Darren L. Ficklin, Yuzhou Luo, Iris T. Stewart-Frey, Edwin P. Maurer
Development And Application Of A Hydroclimatological Stream Temperature Model Within The Soil And Water Assessment Tool, Darren L. Ficklin, Yuzhou Luo, Iris T. Stewart-Frey, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
We develop a stream temperature model within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that reflects the combined influence of meteorological (air temperature) and hydrological conditions (streamflow, snowmelt, groundwater, surface runoff, and lateral soil flow) on water temperature within a watershed. SWAT currently uses a linear air-stream temperature relationship to determine stream temperature, without consideration of watershed hydrology. As SWAT uses stream temperature to model various in-stream biological and water quality processes, an improvement of the stream temperature model will result in improved accuracy in modeling these processes. The new stream temperature model is tested on seven coastal and mountainous …
Low-Tech Coconut Shell Activated Charcoal Production, Ami Cobb, Mikel Warms, Edwin P. Maurer, Steven Chiesa
Low-Tech Coconut Shell Activated Charcoal Production, Ami Cobb, Mikel Warms, Edwin P. Maurer, Steven Chiesa
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Water treatment technologies in the developing world typically focus on removing two types of impurities from water sources: suspended solids and microbial pathogens. However, as industrialization and high-input agriculture has expanded into the developing world, chemical impurities such as pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers have found their way into drinking water supplies and have been linked to severe health-related issues. Activated carbon has the capacity to remove these problematic chemicals from water sources. A simple, inexpensive, and effective activated carbon production process using local agricultural waste byproducts was assessed for the community of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Coconut shell charcoal was produced on …
Guidelines For Constructing Climate Scenarios, Philip Mote, Levi D. Brekke, Philip B. Duffy, Edwin P. Maurer
Guidelines For Constructing Climate Scenarios, Philip Mote, Levi D. Brekke, Philip B. Duffy, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Scientists and others from academia, government, and the private sector increasingly are using climate model outputs in research and decision support. For the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 18 global modeling centers contributed outputs from hundreds of simulations, coordinated through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), to the archive at the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI; http://pcmdi3.llnl.gov) [Meehl et al., 2007]. Many users of climate model outputs prefer downscaled data—i.e., data at higher spatial resolution—to direct global climate model (GCM) outputs; downscaling can be statistical [e.g., Meehl et al., …
The Utility Of Daily Large-Scale Climate Data In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Daily Streamflow In California, Edwin P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan
The Utility Of Daily Large-Scale Climate Data In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Daily Streamflow In California, Edwin P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (used as a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaled meteorology was used to drive a hydrologic model over California. The historic record was divided into an “observed” period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for downscaling, and a “projected” period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscaling methods included a biascorrection/ spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which relies solely on monthly large scale meteorology and resamples the historical record to obtain daily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale anomalies, and a hybrid method …
Basin-Scale Water System Operations With Uncertain Future Climate Conditions: Methodology And Case Studies, Sebastian Vicuna, John A. Dracup, Jay R. Lund, Larry L. Dale, Edwin P. Maurer
Basin-Scale Water System Operations With Uncertain Future Climate Conditions: Methodology And Case Studies, Sebastian Vicuna, John A. Dracup, Jay R. Lund, Larry L. Dale, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
The old and useful paradigm used by water resource engineers, that hydrology in a given place is stationary, and hence it is sufficient to look into the past to plan for the future, does not hold anymore, according to climate change projections. This becomes especially true in snow-dominated regions like California, where not only the magnitude but also the timing of streamflow could be affected by changes in precipitation and temperature. To plan and operate water resources systems at the basin scale, it is necessary to develop new tools that are suited for this nonstationary world. In this paper we …
Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans
Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
This paper examines potential regional-scale impacts of climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on the hydrologic system, soil and groundwater salinity with associated crop yield reductions. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which were downscaled to the 1,400 km2 study area. We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Significant uncertainty in projected precipitation creates …
Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool, Evan H. Girvetz, Chris Zganjar, George T. Raber, Edwin P. Maurer, Peter Kareiva, Joshua J. Lawler
Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool, Evan H. Girvetz, Chris Zganjar, George T. Raber, Edwin P. Maurer, Peter Kareiva, Joshua J. Lawler
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Background: Although the message of ‘‘global climate change’’ is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings: …
Observed 1970-2005 Cooling Of Summer Daytime Temperatures In Coastal California, Bereket Lebassi, Jorge González González, Drazen Fabris, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Cristina Milesi, Paul Switzer, Robert Bornstein
Observed 1970-2005 Cooling Of Summer Daytime Temperatures In Coastal California, Bereket Lebassi, Jorge González González, Drazen Fabris, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Cristina Milesi, Paul Switzer, Robert Bornstein
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
This study evaluated 1950–2005 summer [June–August (JJA)] mean monthly air temperatures for two California air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA). The study focuses on the more rapid post-1970 warming period, and its daily minima temperature Tmin and maxima temperature Tmax values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of trends for each air basin. Additional analyses included concurrent SSTs, 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) sea level coastal pressure gradients, and GCM-downscaled average temperature Tave values. Results for all 253 California National Weather Service …
Water For Life: A Journey To Nicaragua Exploring Sustainable Development, Edwin P. Maurer
Water For Life: A Journey To Nicaragua Exploring Sustainable Development, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
When I first arrived in the Peruvian Altiplano as a Maryknoll missioner 15 years ago, I was struck by the presence of a beautifully engineered system of irrigation canals extending through several communities. Engineers love to solve problems, and seeing progress like this in a very poor region of mostly subsistence farming was encouraging…until I learned that it had never delivered a drop of water, and probably never would. The design of the system had been done by outsiders unfamiliar with the intricacies of farming in the harsh, high-elevation climate, completely unaware of the unique form of land ownership. As …
Assessing Reservoir Operations Risk Under Climate Change, Levi D. Brekke, Edwin P. Maurer, Jamie D. Anderson, Michael D. Dettinger, Edwin S. Townsley
Assessing Reservoir Operations Risk Under Climate Change, Levi D. Brekke, Edwin P. Maurer, Jamie D. Anderson, Michael D. Dettinger, Edwin S. Townsley
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how …
Projected Climate-Induced Faunal Change In The Western Hemisphere, Joshua J. Lawler, Sarah L. Shafer, Denis White, Peter Kareiva, Edwin P. Maurer, Andrew R. Blaustein, Patrick J. Bartlein
Projected Climate-Induced Faunal Change In The Western Hemisphere, Joshua J. Lawler, Sarah L. Shafer, Denis White, Peter Kareiva, Edwin P. Maurer, Andrew R. Blaustein, Patrick J. Bartlein
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we …
Climate Model Based Consensus On The Hydrologic Impacts Of Climate Change To The Rio Lempa Basin Of Central America, Edwin P. Maurer
Climate Model Based Consensus On The Hydrologic Impacts Of Climate Change To The Rio Lempa Basin Of Central America, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was appliedTemperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface …
Using Synoptic-Scale Land Surface Moisture Indices For Hydrologic Prediction, Andrew Wood, Edwin P. Maurer
Using Synoptic-Scale Land Surface Moisture Indices For Hydrologic Prediction, Andrew Wood, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Forecasting seasonal runoff is an important challenge in the western U.S. because the timing and volume of summer (dry season) streamflow plays a critical role in managing water supply and delivery systems. Beginning in December of each year, observations of the snow pack begin to provide invaluable information on the amount of runoff expected in late spring and summer. The skill of such water supply forecasts also benefits, in some locations, from the consideration of synoptic climate indices -- e.g., using sea surface temperature anomalies to characterize ENSO or PDO state, which have been shown to have predictable teleconnections to …
Impact Of Climate Change On Irrigation Water Availability, Crop Water Requirements And Soil Salinity In The Sjv, Ca, Jan Hopmans, Edwin P. Maurer
Impact Of Climate Change On Irrigation Water Availability, Crop Water Requirements And Soil Salinity In The Sjv, Ca, Jan Hopmans, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
We examine potential regional-scale impacts of global climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on cropping patterns, groundwater pumping, groundwater levels, soil salinity, and crop yields. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which are downscaled here to the scale of the study area (~30 km across). We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering output from two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. …
Utility Of Daily Vs. Monthly Large-Scale Climate Data: An Intercomparison Of Two Statistical Downscaling Methods, Edwin P. Maurer, Hugo G. Hidalgo
Utility Of Daily Vs. Monthly Large-Scale Climate Data: An Intercomparison Of Two Statistical Downscaling Methods, Edwin P. Maurer, Hugo G. Hidalgo
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Downscaling of climate model data is essential to local and regional impact analysis. We compare two methods of statistical downscaling to produce continuous, gridded time series of precipitation and surface air temperature at a 1/8-degree (approximately 140 km2 per grid cell) resolution over the western U.S. We use NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 1950–1999 as a surrogate General Circulation Model (GCM). The two methods included are constructed analogues (CA) and a bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD), both of which have been shown to be skillful in different settings, and BCSD has been used extensively in hydrologic impact analysis. Both methods …