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Predicting Medical Student Success On Licensure Exams, Charles A. Gullo, Michael J. Mccarthy, Joseph I. Shapiro, Bobby L. Miller

Biochemistry and Microbiology

Many schools seek to predict performance on national exams required for medical school graduation using prematriculation and medical school performance data. The need for targeted intervention strategies for at-risk students has led much of this interest. Assumptions that preadmission data and high stakes in-house medical exams correlate strongly with national standardized exam performance needs to be examined. Looking at prematriculation data for predicting USMLE Step 1 performance, we found that MCAT exam totals and math-science GPA had the best prediction from a set of prematriculation values (adjusted R 2 = 11.7 %) for step 1. The addition of scores from …