Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Characteristics Based Factor Models - Comparison Of Estimation Procedures, Henri Ohl

McKelvey School of Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Understanding cross-sectional and time series variation of asset returns is fundamental in finance, particularly in asset pricing. This thesis explores the integration of factor theory with machine learning to deepen our comprehension of these dynamics. Characteristics based factor models offer a systematic framework for quantifying an asset's underlying risk-return structure, leveraging time-varying conditional information on model parameters carried by firm-specific characteristics. These models serve as valuable tools for discerning the driving components of an asset's expected excess return. Recent research established a novel methodology for consistent parameter estimation within this framework, only requiring a large cross-section but not a long …

Using Hybrid Machine Learning Models For Stock Price Forecasting And Trading., Ahmed Khalil

Theses and Dissertations

Trading stocks of publicly traded companies in stock markets is a challenging topic since investors are researching what tools can be used to maximize their profits while minimizing risks, which encouraged all researchers to research and test different methods to reach such a goal. As a result, the use of both fundamental analysis and technical analysis started to evolve to support traders in buying and selling stocks. Recently, the focus increased on using Machine learning models to predict stock prices and algorithmic trading as currently there is a huge amount of data that can be processed and used to forecast …

Finance And Artificial Intelligence, Luke Schawang

Theses/Capstones/Creative Projects

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into finance represents a significant evolution in the industry, one that has been ongoing for years but is now accelerating rapidly. This paper explores the various forms and functions of AI, from reactive machines to the potential for superintelligence, and examines its impact on banking, business finance, and investing.

In banking, AI has bolstered cybersecurity and fraud detection, leveraging machine learning algorithms to continuously improve accuracy and efficiency. Similarly, in business finance, AI tools like chatbots and algorithms streamline processes, enhance productivity, and reduce costs. In investing, AI-driven solutions such as robo advisors offer …

The Alchemy Of Diversification: A Deep Dive Into The Stock-Bond Correlation, Evan Coffey

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This research delves into the intricate dynamics of the stock-bond correlation, seeking to reveal the underlying factors that drive its fluctuations. Through a comprehensive analysis of empirical data, it investigates the diverse array of influences that contribute to the variability in the relationship between stock and bond returns. Factors such as inflation, unemployment, market volatility, FED policy, and market growth are scrutinized for their impact on altering the correlation pattern. Additionally, the research explores the implications of the stock-bond correlation on portfolio diversification. By explaining the multifaceted nature of the correlation, this study provides valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and …

Multi-Perspective Analysis For Derivative Financial Product Prediction With Stacked Recurrent Neural Networks, Natural Language Processing And Large Language Model, Ethan Lo

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This study developed a multi-perspective, AI-powered model for predicting E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures prices, tackling the challenging market dynamics of these derivative financial instruments. Leveraging FinBERT for analysis of Wall Street Journal data alongside technical indicators, trader positioning, and economic factors, my stacked recurrent neural network built with LSTMs and GRUs achieves significantly improved accuracy compared to single sub-models. Furthermore, ChatGPT generation of human-readable analysis reports demonstrates the feasibility of using large language models in financial analysis. This research pioneers the use of stacked RNNs and LLMs for multi-perspective financial analysis, offering a novel blueprint for automated prediction and …

"Reconstitute": Business Plan Of A Start-Up Art Invsetment Bussiness: Artvest, Jianing Wang

MA Projects

Art is still used as a financial hedge in times of economic uncertainty. According to Artnet’s Financial Art Index, “The art market outperformed the S&P 500 from January 2022 to July 2023, with art returns rising by 4.2% in nominal terms, while the S&P 500 lost 6.6% during the same period.” 1 Although we are currently in a period of uncertainty about the future global economic outlook, the impact of fluctuations in art prices is relatively low. ArtVest will establish against post-pandemic New York in 2024, seamlessly bridging the realms of art and investment. ArtVest recognizes the potential in the …

Market Reaction Test On Banks & Brokers Based On Bitcoin Price History. A Look At National Commercial Banks And Security Broker, Exchanges, And Service Stocks Following The Most Volatile Swings In Bitcoin’S Price., Payton Earl

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines if there is an inverse correlation between Bitcoin’s most volatile price swings and national commercial banks and security brokers, exchanges and service companies performance. Company performance in the dataset is measured by Cumulative Abnormal Returns during 2021 within a two-day period where Bitcoin has had the most significant uptick and downtick events. Using a market-adjusted model for my regression, it is concluded that Bitcoin’s largest uptick event did indeed have an inversely negative effect on traditional banks and trading securities companies, as the Cumulative Abnormal Returns were negative for my 107 observations and the event was statistically …

Bio-Bust: Investigating Biotech Stock Factors Contributing To Abnormal Returns In The Wake Of Silicon Valley Bank's Failure, Spencer Kent

CMC Senior Theses

Following the unprecedented collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, this study explores abnormal stock price reactions within the biotechnology sector. As the chosen financial institution for countless Silicon Valley-type technology and healthcare firms, SVB's failure had a profound impact on small to mid-sized biotech companies. Analyzing a dataset of 180 biotech firms during a two-day event window over SVB’s collapse, I investigate whether exposure to SVB, or other factors, was the primary contributor to negative abnormal stock price reactions, considering variables such as the percentage of cash held at SVB, whether a firm maintained an active SVB …

Capturing Value In Emerging Markets: A Real Options Perspective On Resilience And Risk, Alexander Castillo

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the evaluation of investment opportunities in emerging markets (EMs) through real options analysis, against the backdrop of their unique risk profiles and the recent trend of EMs exhibiting resilience in economic performance. While EMs are associated with high growth rates and infrastructure gaps, they have shown adaptability, particularly in monetary policy responses to inflation. This paper explores the sensitivity of net present value (NPV) and real options (RO) to changes in the capital asset pricing model, adapting the yield spread to capture default risk and local risk-free rates. Utilizing oil benchmark price data, the paper constructs a …

Predictive Ai For The S&P 500 Index, Jacqueline Rose Perry

Computer Science Senior Theses

Artificial intelligence has powerful applications in virtually every field, and the financial world is no exception. Utilizing various elements of artificial intelligence, this research aims to predict the future value of the S&P 500 index using numerous models, and in doing so, identify relevant features. More specifically, models that include combinations of historical data, public sentiment, and technical indicators were employed to predict the stock price one day and three days forward. To account for public opinion, the sentiment of tweets and news headlines from the beginning of 2015 through the end of 2019 was calculated using FinBERT, a pre-trained …

Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines herd behavior in the cryptocurrency market using data of the top 15 large cryptocurrencies and the CCi30 Index as a proxy for market return. The idea that investors mimic and follow the behavior of others in the cryptocurrency market rather than conducting their own research has received attention in the finance literature. The CSAD results in the static model detected herding but given the existence of structural breakdowns and nonlinearities in the data series, we opted to conduct a rolling window analysis. The results indicate strong herding behavior that fluctuates over time. Furthermore, results from the logistic …

Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

In this paper, I conduct a study of comovement between equity and corporate bonds using S&P500 and Investment Grade and High Yield CDX Indexes to evaluate the diversification benefits of holding these assets in portfolios. I assess comovement and diversification potential using DCC-GARCH and copulas. This approach allows for a review of equity and credit linkages through multiple lenses and evaluation of how these relationships have evolved over time. In general, I find only modest potential for diversification between equity and CDX markets and strong evidence of increased comovement over time.

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Assessing The Impact Of Impact Investing: Practices, Challenges, And Opportunities Towards The Standardization Of Impact Assessment Mechanisms, Taylor Poe

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research project focuses on gathering information on which impact measurement mechanisms are currently used in the impact investing industry, and how these mechanisms are standardized across various firms, geographic locations, and fund types. The overarching goal of the study is to provide an assessment of the impact investing industry and the use of standardized impact assessment practices. The specific goal of this research study is to collect and present information on the current state of impact measurement standardization. Research is separated into three large components: interviews with industry leaders, findings from social finance conferences, and research of scholarly sources. …

Outperforming The Stock Market Using Market Anomalies, Brett Bennett

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

The objective of this study is to explore the use of well-researched market anomalies to generate higher risk-adjusted returns than the overall stock market. Four specific market anomalies are examined: the small-firm effect; price reversals; the January effect; and the momentum effect. It focuses on historical evidence, anomaly characteristics, and potential risks. This study also explores the use of anomaly detection techniques, such as machine learning, in identifying market mispricings. It finds that a selective approach, combining market anomalies with traditional investment strategies, is crucial for effective implementation. This study provides insights for investors seeking to capitalize on market anomalies …

An Investigation Into The Economic Useful Life Of Commercial Aircraft As Impacted By Maintenance And Economic Variables, Robert Gallagher

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

This research involved examining the economic useful life of commercial aircraft and the impact of maintenance and economic variables on the viability and longevity of the asset. The data sample consisted of the entire population of Boeing commercial aircraft produced between 1956 and 2021. The objective was to determine the effect of both maintenance and economic variables on the longevity and usefulness of commercial aircraft. As manufacturers work with issues such as service life, economic life, safety, and critical design features, those in the aviation community focus on the operational side of the equation––how long can one operate the asset, …

Blockchain Games: What On And Off-Chain Factors Affect The Volatility, Returns, And Liquidity Of Gaming Crypto Tokens, Sumer Sareen

CMC Senior Theses

Blockchain games took the internet by storm as they offered a new way for users to play video games, own the assets in those games, and benefit monetarily from their efforts. Through Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and cryptocurrencies, new, Web3 games ushered in a unique asset class for retail and institutional investors to diversify into and benefit from. This paper uses cross-sectional data from 30 blockchain gaming companies to identify on and off-chain factors that affect the company’s token volatility, returns, and liquidity. A multiple linear regression found the percentage of tokens dedicated to a company’s private sale and rewarding users, …

Do Divestment Announcements Affect Fossil Fuel Company Stock Returns?, Wesley Dale

CMC Senior Theses

In response to growing dissatisfaction from environmental activists, many large institutional investors have committed to divesting from fossil fuel related assets. Understanding the financial effects of these divestment movements is crucial to assessing their impact on climate change. Using a financial event study methodology with a sample of 50 divestment announcements from 2014 to 2022, this paper examines the effect that the announcement of these divestment decisions has on the stock returns of oil & gas and coal companies. I find the short term effect on stock prices following a divestment announcement to be insignificant, and I show that more …

Art Investment Funds And Nfts, Francesca Osborne

MA Theses

Art price inflation, rising levels of wealth, and the artworld’s financialization have
changed the way investors view the art market. In an attempt to capture the
momentous returns realized by successful collectors, art investment funds have
emerged with the conviction art can be used as a speculative or strategic alternative asset. However, the majority of art funds have been dissolved or put on hold. This paper examines the investment characteristics of fine art to uncover the rationale for art investment fund failures, finding the art market’s inefficiency as the foremost explanation. Subsequently, non-fungible token (NFT) art and collectibles – a …

The Historic Returns Of Gold: Is It The Best Hedge Against Inflation?, Jack William Gillis

Honors Theses and Capstones

The world of investing is rapidly changing as technologies advance. In the past few years especially, we have seen many investors shifting toward decentralized digital money, or what is known as cryptocurrencies. Even with these new asset classes coming out, there has always been one commodity that has stuck around. Gold has been used as a store of value for millenniums. Investors tend to rely on gold because it’s believed to be a safe-haven asset, in times of economic uncertainty. This paper aims to determine whether or not this traditional mindset is still effective in today’s ever-changing investment environment. To …

Portfolio Optimization Analysis In The Family Of 4/2 Stochastic Volatility Models, Yuyang Cheng

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Over the last two decades, trading of financial derivatives has increased significantly along with richer and more complex behaviour/traits on the underlying assets. The need for more advanced models to capture traits and behaviour of risky assets is crucial. In this spirit, the state-of-the-art 4/2 stochastic volatility model was recently proposed by Grasselli in 2017 and has gained great attention ever since. The 4/2 model is a superposition of a Heston (1/2) component and a 3/2 component, which is shown to be able to eliminate the limitations of these two individual models, bringing the best out of each other. Based …

From Shaq To Serena Williams: An Analysis Of Celebrity Spacs, John Boyar

Senior Theses

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) surged in popularity in 2020 and 2021. For the first time in U.S. history, more SPAC IPOs occurred in a particular year than traditional IPOs and direct listings. Amidst the increase in SPAC IPOs, an expanding number of celebrities became involved with these investment vehicles. This thesis investigates the trend of celebrity backed SPACs by examining how celebrity involvement or association with a SPAC may affect the performance of these equities in the market.

This study examines the SPAC period returns, deSPAC period returns, IPO sizes, deal lengths, and PIPE financing amounts of 339 SPAC …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Hock Keong Ong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. I find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, I employ an instrument variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization value of the host country where the PE fund is based. My results apply to Net IRR, multiple and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results …

Three Essays On Climate Finance And Machine Learning In Financial Studies, Huan Kuang

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on climate finance and explore how to incorporate machine learning techniques into financial research. In the first chapter, we focus on climate innovation. Through a novel design to link climate risk and the U.S. firm patents related to climate change mitigation technologies (CCMTs), we find that CCMT innovations generate significant economic value. These innovations are effective in mitigating firms’ carbon risk. We also find that adoption of a new patent classification scheme has promoted more CCMT innovations in the United States. However, we find mixed evidence on firms’ carbon risk and their CCMT innovation activities. Our work …

Non-Profit Accounting And Financial Strategies For The Exponential Age, Nathan A. Judd

Honors Projects

This research project was designed to introduce the current state of digital assets with all of its potential risks and rewards within the non-profit business sector. Non-profit organizations receive donations constantly, but what happens when an individual gives a digital asset such as Bitcoin to the non-profit? The answer is quite complicated from an accounting and strategic business approach but will be unpacked and reviewed. Other nonprofit topics included are the exponential network effects for digital assets, official FASB accounting regulation treatments for digital assets, taxation documentation from the IRS regarding digital assets, and potential implementation strategies to consider.

Risk-Return Dynamics Using Leveraged Etf Options, Eliza Wampler

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study uses barbell strategies on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 to explore if funds invested primarily in fixed income assets with a portion of the investment placed in in-the-money call options can participate in upside potential, while also reducing risk. This study examines call options on the underlying indexes as well as their leveraged, 2x and 3x, counterparts. The barbell strategy studied, 88% in fixed income bonds and 12% in call options, does not have a higher return than the underlying index, and adds additional risk. However, a weighted portfolio with combinations of a risk-free asset and …

Misvaluing Effective Investors In Intangible Capital, Dustin Lind

CMC Senior Theses

Cohen et al. (2013) measure a firm’s ability at investing in knowledge capital, a type of intangible capital, through a model that captures how well a firm translates R&D intensity into future sales growth. Using this model, they show that an investment portfolio comprised of firms that have high R&D spending ability and high R&D intensity earn significant positive abnormal returns. I modify their model to capture a broader investment in intangible capital by replacing R&D intensity with SG&A intensity and substituting sales growth with gross profit growth. My measure of ability at investing in intangible capital has two main …

Securing The Overnight Rates: A Study Of Alternative Reference Rates In Illiquid Overnight Tri-Party Repo Markets, Michael Murphy

CMC Senior Theses

Since 2011, the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) has been on the way out for practitioners and researchers alike due to its manipulation in key bank quotes during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper intends to examine key rates being introduced as LIBOR substitutes, such as SOFR, BSBY, and Ameribor. Specific to its concern, the paper will back test these rates during times of illiquidity in both their respective markets and the broader financial markets to determine which rates will be able to sustain an abnormal drop in transaction volumes. Furthermore, this paper will try to determine whether a …

Modeling The Impact Of Adding Cryptocurrency In A Portfolio, Ashley Pineault

Honors Theses and Capstones

This study examines the backgrounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum. How they came about, where they differ from one another in functions, and what investors believe will be a better cryptocurrency stock as an investment to include in an optimized portfolio. It will also study the impact of adding two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, into a hypothetical, optimal investment portfolio. Data collection includes the adjusted closing price of 30 diversified stocks from 2016 to 2021. Those adjusted closing prices are the beginning of determining the optimal portfolio for three separate portfolios. One has the Ethereum cryptocurrencies, the other has Bitcoin …

Essays In Mutual Funds, Aadhaar Verma

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

This dissertation examines mutual fund portfolio formation, the economic forces that determine how fund managers construct their portfolios, and the market effects of fund portfolio disclosures.

In the first chapter of my dissertation, I study how funds modify their portfolios around disclosure dates in order to cater to their investors’ non-financial preferences. Using social norms and investor boycotts surrounding tobacco and firearm sectors as a proxy for non-financial preferences, I find that these stocks experience significant negative returns on portfolio disclosure dates and significant positive returns on the day after the portfolio disclosure. I also find that funds accelerate their …