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Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales
Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales
Articles
This paper estimates and applies a risk management strategy for electricity spot exposures using futures hedging. We apply our approach to three of the most actively traded European electricity markets, Nordpool, APXUK and Phelix. We compare both optimal hedging strategies and the hedging effectiveness of these markets for two hedging horizons, weekly and monthly using both Variance and Value at Risk (VaR). We find significant differences in both the Optimal Hedge Ratios (OHR’s) and the hedging effectiveness of the different electricity markets. Better performance is found for the Nordpool market while the poorest performer in hedging terms is Phelix. However …
Performance Of Utility Based Hedges, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Performance Of Utility Based Hedges, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
Hedgers as investors are concerned with both risk and return. However when measuring hedging performance, the role of returns and investor risk aversion has generally been neglected in the literature, by its focus on minimum variance hedging. In this paper we address this by using utility based performance metrics to evaluate the hedging effectiveness of utility based hedges for hedgers with both moderate and high risk aversion together with the more traditional minimum variance approach. To examine this for an energy hedger, we apply our approach to WTI Crude Oil, for three different hedging horizons, daily, weekly and monthly. We …
A Utility Based Approach To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
A Utility Based Approach To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
A key issue in the estimation of energy hedges is the hedgers’ attitude towards risk which is encapsulated in the form of the hedgers’ utility function. However, the literature typically uses only one form of utility function such as the quadratic when estimating hedges. This paper addresses this issue by estimating and applying energy market based risk aversion to commonly applied utility functions including log, exponential and quadratic, and we incorporate these in our hedging frameworks. We find significant differences in the optimal hedge strategies based on the utility function chosen.
Hedging Effectiveness Under Conditions Of Asymmetry, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Hedging Effectiveness Under Conditions Of Asymmetry, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
We examine whether hedging effectiveness is affected by asymmetry in the return distribution by applying tail specific metrics, for example, Value at Risk, to compare the hedging effectiveness of short and long hedgers. Comparisons are applied to a number of hedging strategies including OLS, and both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We apply our analysis to a dataset consisting of S&P500 index cash and futures containing symmetric and asymmetric return distributions chosen ex-post. Our findings show that asymmetry reduces out-of-sample hedging performance and that significant differences occur in hedging performance between short and long hedgers.
Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of …
Hedging: Scaling And The Investor Horizon, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Hedging: Scaling And The Investor Horizon, Jim Hanly, John Cotter
Articles
This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term hedging horizon can be scaled and successfully applied to longer term horizons. We also test the equivalence of scaled hedge ratios with those calculated directly from lower frequency data and compare them in terms of hedging effectiveness. Our findings show that the volatility and covariance dynamics may differ considerably depending on the hedging horizon and this gives rise to significant differences between short term and …