Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Technology Disaster Recovery.Docx, D'Andre D. Lampkin

D'Andre Lampkin

Does Beating Cash Flow Benchmarks Reduce The Cost Of Debt?, Mauricio A. Melgarejo

Mauricio Melgarejo

This paper examines whether beating previous year cash flow values and analysts' cash flow forecasts impact the firms' cost of debt. Creditors are expected to be more concerned about firm solvency than firm profitability. Accordingly, if lenders have any reference point it may be related to cash flow numbers. This study finds that firms that beat analysts' cash flow forecasts have smaller initial bond yield spreads in the next period and a decrease in their initial bond yield spreads between consecutive periods. This effect is more pronounced at short maturities and for observations with less informative earnings. Firms with lower …

Building And Testing A Portfolio Of Marijuana Stocks: Why U.S. Sec Trading Suspensions Might Cause Some To Crash Before (Or After) Reaching New High, Anthony J. Cataldo Ii, Thomas Miller, Glenn S. Soltis, Brian J. Halsey

Brian Halsey

No abstract provided.

The Sfa Business Review Vol. 2 No. 2, M. Dudley Stewart, Ralph L. White, John H. Lewis, Danny R. Arnold, John D. Whitt, Patsy Spurrier, Janelle C. Ashley

Ralph E. White

No abstract provided.

Corporate Security: Using Knowledge Construction To Define A Practising Body Of Knowledge, David Brooks

David J Brooks Dr.

Security is a multidimensional concept, with many meanings, practising domains, and heterogeneous occupations. Therefore, it is difficult to define security as a singular concept, although understanding may be achieved by its applied context in presenting a domicile body of knowledge. There have been studies that have presented a number of corporate security bodies of knowledge; however, there is still restricted consensus. From these past body of knowledge studies, and supported by multidimensional scaling knowledge mapping, a body of knowledge framework is put forward, integrating core and allied knowledge categories. The core knowledge categories include practise areas such as risk management, …

Share-Price-Changes-Volume Relation On The Singapore Equity Market, David K. C. Lee, Mohamed Ariff

David LEE Kuo Chuen

A critical review of the literature on security-price-changes-volume research suggests that the published studies in the United States and one each in Hong Kong and Japan have largely ignored the impacts on the results from autocorrelation, non-normality of distributions, heteroscedasticity and non-linear functional forms. Therefore, the reported findings are not robust. In testing for this relation from a small sample of continuously traded shares in the Singapore share market, we find that consistent results may not be obtained because of violations of basic test conditions. A task that remains is an application of alternative test models with data transformation using …

Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong

Caroline Yeoh

No abstract provided.

How Diversified Is Your Equity Portfolio?, Bruce Vanstone

Bruce Vanstone

Extract: There can’t be many investors today who aren’t aware of the importance of diversification. Even the simplest form of naïve diversification, which just entails spreading your equity investments over as many companies as possible, is beneficial. Other more complex forms, such as modern portfolio theory allow investment professionals to use diversification as a construct in managing portfolio risk.

Assessing The Financial Failure Using Z-Score And Current Ratio: A Case Of Sugar Sector Listed Companies Of Kse, Muhammad Shahzad Ijaz, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Rauf I. Azam

Ahmed Imran Hunjra (PhD)

Since 1968, after the development of multivariate model, financial health of the corporate sector to predict their financial failure is heavily studied. Altman Z-Score is the most efficient model to judge the financial failure of the companies. This study uses Altman’s Z-Score and current ratio to assess the financial status of sugar sector companies listed at Karachi stock exchange. Sugar sector is the second largest slice among all sectors listed at Karachi stock exchange. Total population sampling technique was used in this study and all thirty five sugar sector listed companies at KSE were included in this study to get …

An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Shih-Fen Cheng

We construct an agent-based model to study the interplay between extreme price shocks and illiquidity in the presence of systematic traders known as trend followers. The agent-based approach is particularly attractive in modeling commodity markets because the approach allows for the explicit modeling of production, capacities, and storage constraints. Our study begins by using the price stream from a market simulation involving human participants and studies the behavior of various trend-following strategies, assuming initially that their participation will not impact the market. We notice an incremental deterioration in strategy performance as and when strategies deviate further and further from the …

Would Position Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Shih-Fen CHENG

On May 6, 2010, the US equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. Earlier research by Lee, Cheng and Koh (2010) identified the conditions under which a “flash crash” can be triggered by systematic traders running highly similar trading strategies, especially when they are “crowding out” other liquidity providers in the market. The authors contend that the events of May 6, …

An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Shih-Fen Cheng

We construct an agent-based model to study the interplay between extreme price shocks and illiquidity in the presence of systematic traders known as trend followers. The agent-based approach is particularly attractive in modeling commodity markets because the approach allows for the explicit modeling of production, capacities, and storage constraints. Our study begins by using the price stream from a market simulation involving human participants and studies the behavior of various trend-following strategies, assuming initially that their participation will not impact the market. We notice an incremental deterioration in strategy performance as and when strategies deviate further and further from the …

Would Price Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Shih-Fen CHENG

On May 6, 2010, the U.S. equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see Figure 1) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. The authors contend that the events of May 6, 2010 exhibit patterns consistent with the type of "flash crash" observed in their earlier study (2010). This paper describes the results of nine different simulations created by using a large-scale computer model to reconstruct the critical elements …

An Agent-Based Commodity Trading Simulation, Shih-Fen Cheng, Yee Pin Lim

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, an event-centric commodity trading simulation powered by the multiagent framework is presented. The purpose of this simulation platform is for training novice traders. The simulation is progressed by announcing news events that affect various aspects of the commodity supply chain. Upon receiving these events, market agents that play the roles of producers, consumers, and speculators would adjust their views on the market and act accordingly. Their actions would be based on their roles and also their private information, and collectively they shape the market dynamics. This simulation has been effectively deployed for several training sessions. We will …

Investing In Hedge Funds: Risks, Returns And Pitfalls, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, David Kuo Chuen Lee, Kok Fai Phoon

Francis Koh

Hedge funds are collective investment vehicles fast becoming popular with high net worth individuals as well as institutional investors. These are funds that are often established with a special legal status that allows their investment managers a free hand to use derivatives, short sell, and exploit leverage to raise returns and cushion risk. Given that that they have substantial latitude to invest, it is instructive to examine the performance of hedge funds compared to other forms of managed funds. This paper provides an overview of hedge funds and discusses their empirical risk and return profiles. It also poses some concerns …

Modeling Dependence Using Skew T Copulas: Bayesian Inference And Applications, Michael S. Smith, Quan Gan, Robert Kohn

Michael Stanley Smith

[THIS IS AN AUGUST 2010 REVISION THAT REPLACES ALL PREVIOUS VERSIONS.]

We construct a copula from the skew t distribution of Sahu, Dey & Branco (2003). This copula can capture asymmetric and extreme dependence between variables, and is one of the few copulas that can do so and still be used in high dimensions effectively. However, it is difficult to estimate the copula model by maximum likelihood when the multivariate dimension is high, or when some or all of the marginal distributions are discrete-valued, or when the parameters in the marginal distributions and copula are estimated jointly. We therefore propose …

The Benefits And Costs Of Large Block Ownership Before And During The East Asian Crisis, Parthiban David, Michael A. Hitt, Wee Liang Tan

Wee Liang TAN

No abstract provided.

Commercial Real Estate Lending Concentrations: New Evidence, Elisabeta Pana

Elisabeta Pana

This study documents the management of risk used by small banks with commercial real estate lending concentrations prior to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We show that banks with commercial real estate concentrations traded interest rate risk for credit risk. The trade-off is accompanied by a higher leverage and liquidity risk. Our findings support the argument advanced by policymakers and academic researchers that the increased scrutiny over banks’ lending standards and risk management practices is justified.

Lessons Learned From The “Oracle Of Omaha” Warren Buffett, Todd A. Finkle

Todd A Finkle

Designing Short Term Trading Systems With Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Tobias Hahn

Tobias Hahn

There is a long established history of applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to financial data sets. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the use of this methodology to develop a financially viable, short-term trading system. When developing short-term systems, the authors typically site the neural network within an already existing non-neural trading system. This paper briefly reviews an existing medium-term long-only trading system, and then works through the Vanstone and Finnie methodology to create a short-term focused ANN which will enhance this trading strategy. The initial trading strategy and the ANN enhanced trading strategy are comprehensively benchmarked both in-sample and …

Do Initial Stop-Losses Stop Losses?, Bruce Vanstone

Bruce Vanstone

A great many traders use stop-loss rules in their everyday trading. In addition, during periods of high volatility, many traders attempt to protect their downside by moving their stops closer to the price action. However, there appears to be little real justification for doing this. There is a shortage of evidence that demonstrates that stops are actually providing the benefits that traders believe they are. This paper is an empirical study of the use of stops within a defined trading strategy. The methodology used within this paper can easily be ported to any individual traders’ strategy. In the specific case …

A Computational Exploration Of The Efficacy Of Fibonacci Sequences In Technical Analysis And Trading, Sukanto Bhattacharya, Kuldeep Kumar

Kuldeep Kumar

Among the vast assemblage of technical analysis tools, the ones based on Fibonacci recurrences in asset prices are relatively more scientific. In this paper, we review some of the popular technical analysis methodologies based on Fibonacci sequences and also advance a theoretical rationale as to why security prices may be seen to follow such sequences. We also analyze market data for an indicative empirical validation of the efficacy or otherwise of such sequences in predicting critical security price retracements that may be useful in constructing automated trading systems. © 2006 Peking University Press

Applying Fundamental Analysis And Neural Networks In The Australian Stockmarket, Bruce J. Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

This paper demonstrates how Neural Networks may be successfully applied to the problem of security selection in the Australian stockmarket. In practice, it is unrealistic for a trader to apply capital to all securities available in the market, and a selection technique must be employed to reduce the number of securities competing for capital. Selection techniques are generally based on either fundamental analysis procedures, or technical analysis procedures. This paper focuses on fundamental procedures, and implements a neural network which enhances the effectiveness of these procedures.

A Survey Of The Application Of Soft Computing To Investment And Financial Trading, Bruce Vanstone, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of applying Soft Computing to Investment and Financial Trading. It analyses the literature according to the style of soft computing used, the investment discipline used, the successes demonstrated, and the applicability of the research to real world trading. This papers contribution is to expose the key areas where research is being undertaken, and to attempt to quantify the degree of successes associated with the different research approaches.

Enhancing Security Selection In The Australian Stockmarket Using Fundamental Analysis And Neural Networks, Bruce Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

This paper examines financial trading from the aspect of security selection. In practice, it is unrealistic for a financial trader to participate in the full market of tradeable securities, and a selection mechanism must be employed to reduce the number of possible securities competing for investment capital. Essentially, there are two main methodologies used, namely, Fundamental Analysis, and Technical Analysis. This paper examines the practice of Fundamental Analysis, and demonstrates how neural networks can be practically employed to enhance the fundamentalist selection process.

Designing Short Term Trading Systems With Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Tobias Hahn

Bruce Vanstone

There is a long established history of applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to financial data sets. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the use of this methodology to develop a financially viable, short-term trading system. When developing short-term systems, the authors typically site the neural network within an already existing non-neural trading system. This paper briefly reviews an existing medium-term long-only trading system, and then works through the Vanstone and Finnie methodology to create a short-term focused ANN which will enhance this trading strategy. The initial trading strategy and the ANN enhanced trading strategy are comprehensively benchmarked both in-sample and …

The Risk Components Of Liquidity, Lorán Chollete, Randi Naes, Johannes Skjeltorp

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Insider Trading Around New Drug Approvals, Todd A. Finkle, Laurence Blose, Reinhold Lamb

Todd A Finkle