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Economics

2023

Articles 1 - 6 of 6

Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou Dec 2023

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …

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Ucimco Endowment Semi-Annual Presentation, Fall 2023, Will Alain, Billy Cardino, Tyler Causa, Patrick Collins, Bill Cook, Cole Grubbs, Kieran Hollander, Dylan Hollick, Jared Minnichbach, Alexandra Nenish, Jordan Pick, Kipp Ransome, Kirk Ransome, Kyle Rosenfeld, Tyler Sargent, Michael Scheller, Max Shilstone, Mckade Trauger, Nick Troha Oct 2023

Ucimco Endowment Semi-Annual Presentation, Fall 2023, Will Alain, Billy Cardino, Tyler Causa, Patrick Collins, Bill Cook, Cole Grubbs, Kieran Hollander, Dylan Hollick, Jared Minnichbach, Alexandra Nenish, Jordan Pick, Kipp Ransome, Kirk Ransome, Kyle Rosenfeld, Tyler Sargent, Michael Scheller, Max Shilstone, Mckade Trauger, Nick Troha

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. This presentation, by the endowment team, examines performance and investment philosophy while discussing selections in the portfolio including: fixed income, U.S. and international equities, real estate and commodities.

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Ursinus College Women's Investment Fund, Fall 2023, Sarah Dilello, Emily Carkhuff, Katie Ciuffreda, Laura Bradley, Samantha Mallen, Carly Troilo, Camila Knipe, Isabella Scarpetti, Mayleigh Rickey, Carlie Shiller Oct 2023

Ursinus College Women's Investment Fund, Fall 2023, Sarah Dilello, Emily Carkhuff, Katie Ciuffreda, Laura Bradley, Samantha Mallen, Carly Troilo, Camila Knipe, Isabella Scarpetti, Mayleigh Rickey, Carlie Shiller

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. In 2020, a group of women students began to manage their own fund. This presentation reviews activities of the Fall 2023 semester and analyzes the stock performance of various companies including: Salesforce, InterDigital Inc., SPX Technologies, NextEra Energy and RenaissanceRe Holdings.

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Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad May 2023

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

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Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang Jan 2023

Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …

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Ownership Of Esg Characteristics, Mark E. Bateman, Lisa R. Goldberg Jan 2023

Ownership Of Esg Characteristics, Mark E. Bateman, Lisa R. Goldberg

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

A portfolio can be viewed as the collection of the businesses, policies and practices of constituent companies. We measure investors' Ownership of this collection. Ownership metrics aggregate an assortment of company specific Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) characteristics to the portfolio level, and they can inform investment and engagement decisions. Relative to a benchmark, investor Ownership is active and satisfies a zero-sum property, which underscores the distinction between Ownership and impact. Ownership of ESG characteristics may be interpreted as ascribing ethical responsibility, but that conclusion and any decisions that result from it belong to the investor.

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