Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

The Alchemy Of Diversification: A Deep Dive Into The Stock-Bond Correlation, Evan Coffey

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This research delves into the intricate dynamics of the stock-bond correlation, seeking to reveal the underlying factors that drive its fluctuations. Through a comprehensive analysis of empirical data, it investigates the diverse array of influences that contribute to the variability in the relationship between stock and bond returns. Factors such as inflation, unemployment, market volatility, FED policy, and market growth are scrutinized for their impact on altering the correlation pattern. Additionally, the research explores the implications of the stock-bond correlation on portfolio diversification. By explaining the multifaceted nature of the correlation, this study provides valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and …

Capturing Value In Emerging Markets: A Real Options Perspective On Resilience And Risk, Alexander Castillo

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the evaluation of investment opportunities in emerging markets (EMs) through real options analysis, against the backdrop of their unique risk profiles and the recent trend of EMs exhibiting resilience in economic performance. While EMs are associated with high growth rates and infrastructure gaps, they have shown adaptability, particularly in monetary policy responses to inflation. This paper explores the sensitivity of net present value (NPV) and real options (RO) to changes in the capital asset pricing model, adapting the yield spread to capture default risk and local risk-free rates. Utilizing oil benchmark price data, the paper constructs a …

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Ownership Of Esg Characteristics, Mark E. Bateman, Lisa R. Goldberg

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

A portfolio can be viewed as the collection of the businesses, policies and practices of constituent companies. We measure investors' Ownership of this collection. Ownership metrics aggregate an assortment of company specific Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) characteristics to the portfolio level, and they can inform investment and engagement decisions. Relative to a benchmark, investor Ownership is active and satisfies a zero-sum property, which underscores the distinction between Ownership and impact. Ownership of ESG characteristics may be interpreted as ascribing ethical responsibility, but that conclusion and any decisions that result from it belong to the investor.

Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …

Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …

Forecasting Equity Index Volatility By Measuring The Linkage Among Component Stocks, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Qiankun Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

The linkage among the realized volatilities of component stocks is important when modeling and forecasting the relevant index volatility. In this article, the linkage is measured via an extended Common Correlated Effects (CCEs) approach under a panel heterogeneous autoregression model where unobserved common factors in errors are assumed. Consistency of the CCE estimator is obtained. The common factors are extracted using the principal component analysis. Empirical studies show that realized volatility models exploiting the linkage effects lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance, for example, an up to 32% increase in the pseudo R2. We also conduct various forecasting exercises …

Do Esg Funds Deliver On Their Promises?, Quinn Curtis, Jill E. Fisch, Adriana Z. Robertson

All Faculty Scholarship

Corporations have received growing criticism for their role in climate change, perpetuating racial and gender inequality, and other pressing social issues. In response to these concerns, shareholders are increasingly focusing on environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) criteria in selecting investments, and asset managers are responding by offering a growing number of ESG mutual funds. The flow of assets into ESG is one of the most dramatic trends in asset management.

But are these funds giving investors what they promise? This question has attracted the attention of regulators, with the Department of Labor and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) …

A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach To Portfolio Selection: An Application To The Blue Chip Stocks In The Philippine Stock Exchange (2010-2019), Vishal Bhagia, Colleen Monica K. Chiu, Paulynne J. Castillo, Roberto B. Raymundo, Joel Q. Tanchuco

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

There has been a growing interest in the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a nonparametric approach in portfolio optimization due to its flexibility in overcoming the limitations of the conventional mean-variance portfolio (MVP) model. Therefore, this study aims to validate the allocative efficiency of the DEA cross-efficiency model using blue chip stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2019. This study finds that the proposed model is able to distinguish a unique set of best-performing stocks across each holding period and outperforms the MVP more consistently. The results of this study suggest that the proposed DEA …

Mutual Fund Stewardship And The Empty Voting Problem, Jill E. Fisch

All Faculty Scholarship

When Roberta Karmel wrote the articles that are the subject of this symposium, she was skeptical of both the potential value of shareholder voting and the emerging involvement of institutional investors in corporate governance. In the ensuing years, both the increased role and engagement of institutional investors and the heightened importance of shareholder voting offer new reasons to take Professor Karmel’s concerns seriously. Institutional investors have taken on a broader range of issues ranging from diversity and political spending to climate change and human capital management, and their ability to influence corporate policy on these issues has become more significant. …

What Is New In Value Investing? A Systematic Literature Review, Florencia Roca

Journal of New Finance

This study provides an overview of the academic research in the field of Value Investing (VI), identifying the knowledge structure, influential authors, connections between relevant papers, and salient trends. Following a defined protocol, the Google Scholar database is examined to extract, rank, and connect influential books and academic articles in VI. Through a systematic literature review methodology, this study retrieves a database of 400 academic works published between 1965 and 2020. Using rigorous bibliometric and visualization tools, it identifies four major research clusters: (1) competing explanations of the value premium, (2) anomalies research, (3) momentum and fundamentals, and (4) wrong …

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities' implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 min and 5 min, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …

Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines the association between liquidity injections and capital allocations in the United States. In the analysis, liquidity injections are proxied by monetary base and the capital allocations are reflected by excess reserves, vault cash, total bank credit, and M2-M1. Monthly data are utilized for all variables for the sample period March 1984 – June 2020. Four Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regressions and Markov switching estimations are employed to examine changeable patterns and interactions. The results indicate that liquidity injections are imbalanced and are allocated to total bank credit prior to quantitative easing, excess reserves prior to QE through post-QE, …

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities’ implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 minutes and 5 minutes, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …

Are Investment Banks Helpful Or Hurtful? An Analysis Of Intraday Volatility In The Direct Listing Process As Compared To Investment Bank-Involvement In Traditional Ipos, Alexis Paff

Scripps Senior Theses

In this paper, I carry out an empirical analysis of the pricing volatility of direct listings as compared to traditional IPOs. Direct listings solve an efficiency problem in the US going-public market, in which well-funded, late-stage firms lack incentives to pursue a public listing, which would create liquidity for preexisting shareholders and allow for a more diverse body of public shareholders. Direct listings have been allowed on the New York Stock Exchange since early 2018, and four firms, Spotify, Slack, Asana, and Palantir, have gone public through this new listing mechanism. While underwriters are heavily involved in the IPO process, …

Synthetic Governance, Byung Hyun Anh, Jill E. Fisch, Panos N. Patatoukas, Steven Davidoff Solomon

All Faculty Scholarship

Although securities regulation is distinct from corporate governance, the two fields have considerable substantive overlap. By increasing the transparency and efficiency of the capital markets, securities regulation can also enhance the capacity of those markets to discipline governance decisions. The importance of market discipline is heightened by the increasingly vocal debate over what constitutes “good” corporate governance.

Securities product innovation offers new tools to address this debate. The rise of index-based investing provides a market-based mechanism for selecting among governance options and evaluating their effects. Through the creation of bespoke governance index funds, asset managers can create indexes that correspond …

Diversifying Investment Portfolios With Collectible Sneakers: Expected Returns And Benefits Of Diversification, Samuel Soo

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis seeks to identify if collectible sneakers can provide diversification benefits to an investor’s portfolio. Using data from a global collectible sneaker marketplace, StockX, I constructed an index to compare it with other traditional assets, including the S&P 500 index and 5-year US Treasury Bills. By calculating key metrics including expected returns, volatility, and correlation, I analyzed the risk-return characteristics of the collectible sneaker asset class compared to other traditional asset classes. From the data analysis I performed, I found that collectible sneakers did not outperform returns significantly compared to traditional asset classes, but had low correlations, which provides …

Investor Behavior In The Midst Of A Global Pandemic, Abigail N. Bates

Honors Projects

Investors partaking in portfolio and asset management through the stock market and other avenues do so with certain reasoning and methods in hand. Each investor may have different interests and risk tolerances that guide their choices for investment. Behavioral finance allows for an in-depth look at an investor’s actions and the influencing psychology behind it. Before this approach was popularized, early studies of finance assumed that investors were always rational in their decision making and put resources only into opportunities that would increase their utility or happiness. The behavioral finance approach takes a more comprehensive look at these behaviors and …

Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial literacy in Singapore has not been analyzed in much detail, despite the fact that this is one of the world’s most rapidly aging nations. Using the Singapore Life Panel®, we explore older Singaporeans’ levels of financial knowledge and compare them to those observed in the United States. We assess portfolio complexity for these older households, to examine how financial literacy is related to outcomes of interest. We show that older Singaporeans’ levels of financial literacy are comparable overall to those in the United States, even though older Singaporeans score slightly lower on some dimensions (knowledge of interest and inflation), …

Socially Useless? The Crucial Contribution Of Finance To Economic Life, Philip Booth, Diego Zuluaga

Journal of New Finance

The value of financial markets is under-appreciated. Financial markets perform fundamental functions which are vital in reducing transactions costs in the economy for businesses and households. Without well-functioning financial markets, business would find if much more costly to raise capital and ordinary households would find retirement, protection against everyday risks and day-to-day transactions impossible. Those who criticise financial markets ignore the breadth of their functions and focus on a narrow range of activities. However, even activities such as trading, speculation and so on have social value. The evidence that they cause social problems appears more circumstantial when put under closer …

Stock Market Drivers: Corporate Share Repurchases, Parker Wolf

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Such financial tools as share buybacks are coming under scrutiny by many investment experts. Evidence suggests that share repurchases foster a short-term focus in corporate managers who have a share-based compensation. Recent studies and research draw attention to the negative consequences of corporate share repurchases. While share buybacks were originally intended to create financial value for intrinsically undervalued shares, they are increasingly coming under scrutiny for enabling shareholders to increase their value of wealth at the expense of other stakeholders. With increased stock option plans for corporate executives, the association between increase in open market share buyback activity and compensation …

Why Is Las Vegas Busy Everyday? A Behavioural Analysis Of Impact Investors’ Attitude And Decision-Making Process, Isha Shah

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Remarking a discrepancy in the statistics of a growing influence of impact investment and yet its restrictive inclusion in the financial market has encouraged this inductive research to take an alternative approach to address the impact investment market. In an emic perspective, this study aims to assess the factors motivating individuals and institutions to pursue impact investment. Further, it also investigates some elements that guide the decision making of the investors in this field. The qualitative nature of the research demands exceptional secondary sources and it is rendered more credible with the inclusion of three relevant primary sources. The analysis …

The Performance Of Stock Portfolios: Evidence From Analysing Malaysia Case, And Implication For Open Innovation, Ariful Hoque, Sharmeen Rakhi, Kamrul Hassan, Thi Le

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This research examines the performance of the Islamic stock portfolio (ISP) and conventional stock portfolio (CSP) for the five industrial sectors and market in Malaysia. The capital asset pricing model statistics indicate that the ISP provides a higher return with a lower systematic risk compared to the CSP in different sectors; however, the ISP and CSP perform equally in the market. The non-parametric stochastic dominance approach reveals that the ISP is better than the CSP for portfolio return without considering the riskiness for all sectors except properties; further, the ISP outperforms …

Market Risk And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Carolyne Cebrian Soper

WCBT Faculty Publications

We examine interactions between market risk and market-implied inflation expectations. We argue that these interactions are asymmetric and varied in time. Specifically, market risk becomes elevated by expectations of either very low or high expected inflation. Market risk does not react to expectations of moderate, stable inflation. In our analysis, market risk is proxied by VIX and market-implied inflation expectations are reflected by five- and ten-year breakeven inflation. We use daily data for 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation and VIX for the sample period January 3, 2003 – January 24, 2019 for empirical testing. We employ asymptotic VAR, multiple …

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.

International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.

The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper studies the impact of immigration policy on financial markets. I estimate the cumulative abnormal returns surrounding two events the effective start date of the Immigration Act of 1990 and the implementation of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of Nicaragua and Honduras in 1999. Focusing on agriculture, construction, and manufacturing firms, I find that the CARs surrounding the events are indeed positive and significant, suggesting that the market anticipated growth among industries that are likely to hire Central American immigrants.

Procesos Administrativos Y Contables Para La Fundación Dejando Huellas Mets, Diego Mauricio Cárdenas Diaz, Ivonne Alexandra Vargas Valderrama

Contaduría Pública

El trabajo presentado a continuación permite identificar el seguimiento realizado a la Fundación Dejando Huellas METS, ubicada en la localidad 18 Rafael Uribe Uribe de la ciudad de Bogotá, en la cual se realizó un proceso de investigación y acompañamiento que permitió la recopilación de información primaria a través de visitas al entorno interno y externo de dicha institución. Por medio de entrevistas realizadas a la señora Marisol Rincón, en su calidad de fundadora y presidente, se logró identificar las limitantes de conocimiento sobre temas administrativos y contables, elementos necesarios para ejecutar procesos de planeación y seguimiento que permitiera un …

The Influence Of Publicly-Traded Reits And Market-Based Inflation Expectations On Daily-Priced Private Commercial Real Estate Returns, Tiffany Burns Gherlone

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Investors requiring daily Net Asset Values (NAV) represent a large and growing source of capital for the private institutional real estate asset class. Defined contribution and other daily-valued vehicles are increasing their investments into private, direct commercial real estate through funds that estimate changes to income and values in order to mark a daily NAV. Utilizing nine years of daily data from the NCREIF Fund Index – Daily Priced, we optimize a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-GED) to better understand the influence of publicly-traded real estate securities and changes in market-implied inflation expectations on …