Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 2, No. 1, 1994, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Health Insurance Reform and its Effects on the Small Employer Market: A Review of H.R. 3626 • P. Anthony Hammond

An Introduction to Individual Disability Income Insurance • Mark J. Chartier

Cost Containment in Workers' Compensation: Evaluating Medical Fee Schedules • David L. Durbin and Barry I. Llewellyn

The Markov Chain Interest Rate Scenario Generator Revisited • Sarah L.M. Christiansen

Managing the Costs and Risks of Housing Finance: A New Role For Actuaries • Anthony Asher

Reconciling Two Rate Level Indications: A Chain Rule Approach • Cheng-Sheng Peter Wu

Tax Assistance to Qualified Retirement Savings Plans: Deferral or Waiver? …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 2, No.2, 1994, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Disenrollment Patterns of Elderly in Managed Care and Fee for Service • Kenneth G. Manton, H. Dennis Tolley, Robert Newcomer, James C. Vertrees, and Charlene Harrington

Modeling Insurance Cash Flows for Universal Life Policies • Robert E. Hoyt

Modal Premium Factors in Ordinary Life Insurance • James B. Ross and Criss G. Woodruff

Predicting Automobile Insurance Multi-Regional Base Pure Premiums • Edward Nissan and Iskandar S. Hamwi

A Statistical Approach to IBNR Reserves • Bradford S. Gile

Safety First and Ambiguity • Lawrence A. Berger and Howard Kunreuther

Discussion of Robert L. Brown's "Tax Assistance to Qualified Retirement Savings …

Disenrollment Patterns Of Elderly In Managed Care And Fee For Service, Kenneth G. Manton, Dennis H. Tolley, Robert Newcomer, James C. Vertrees, Charlene Harrington

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

As the trend to provide health care through managed care facilities increases, the need to examine ,vhy insured individuals voluntarily terminate managed care coverage grows. Voluntary termination of coverage, or dis enrollment, has both social and fiscal implications. Particularly among the elderly, patterns of disenrollment likely are related to self assessment of care needs and levels of health. In this paper we examine the patterns of dis enrollment among elderly enrollees as a function of health status and disability. We focus on disenrollment patterns from an experimental prepaid extended care facility, called a social HMO (S/HMO) and compare this pattern …

Cost Containment In Workers' Compensation: Evaluating Medical Fee Schedules, David L. Durbin, Barry I. Llewellyn

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Medical expenditures in workers' compensation programs have been subjected to few cost containment strategies. As workers' compensation costs have escalated, however, increasing attention is being given to the role of medical fee schedules in containing the prices of medical services. To this end, we develop a model for estimating the potential cost savings from implementing medical fee schedules. A market basket of medical services received by injured workers is constructed. This basket is used to estimate the parameters of the model. In addition, the basket is used to determine the impact of imposing a fee schedule linked to usual and …

The Markov Chain Interest Rate Scenario Generator Revisited, Sarah L.M. Christiansen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper furthers the development of the Markov chain interest rate generator. Though the basic technique remains essentially unchanged, there are still many significant changes to the model. For example: (i) the long (key) rates are now are generated by a mean reversionary process; (ii) the number of shapes is increased from seven to 11; (iii) the limitation of changing by only two shape codes per year is removed; and (iv) the random walk matrix that determines the shapes is revised to be more realistic. An algorithm is developed to determine the shape code of the original yield curve, thus …

An Introduction To Individual Disability Income Insurance, Mark J. Chartier

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

There are several actuarial software packages purporting to calculate expected benefit cash flows on disability income insurance policies. To the author's knowledge, however, there is no published text that explains how to perform these calculations. This paper is intended to fill this gap in the literature. It describes some of the more common techniques for pricing disability income insurance. Those techniques for which claim costs can be used and those for which the pricing actuary must project cash flows are identified.

Tax Assistance To Qualified Retirement Savings Plans: Deferral Or Waiver?, Robert L. Brown

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

There exist significant tax incentives for retirement savings plans in Canada and the United States. Qualified employer and employee contributions, within limits, are tax deductible to the employer and nontaxable to the employee. Also, investment income is not taxed until taken. On the other hand, monies received from funds having such tax incentives are taxable in full as income to the recipient when taken. This paper analyzes the two tax advantages of qualified retirement savings plans: the tax deductibility of contributions and the nontaxation of investment income until it has been distributed. The algebraic analysis shows that the deductibility of …

"Tax Assistance To Qualified Retirement Savings Plans: Deferral Or Waiver": Author's Reply To Previous The Discussion*, Robert L. Brown

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

Safety First And Ambiguity, Lawrence A. Berger, Howard Kunreuther

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

There is considerable empirical evidence suggesting that ambiguity (i.e., parameter risk) impacts pricing decisions by actuaries and underwriters and their desire to provide coverage. Stone proposed a safety first model of choice that provides a possible explanation for this behavior. This paper analyzes Stone's proposed stability and survival constraints and compares the results with those predicted by expected utility theory. The analysis is motivated by insurers' increasing reluctance to provide coverage for certain specific risks such as earthquake damage insurance where the probability of loss is ambiguous. We show that such behavior is consistent with safety first but is difficult …

Reconciling Two Rate Level Indications: A Chain Rule Approach, Cheng-Sheng Peter Wu

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The problem considered is that of reconciling two rate level indications that are based on several common factors, but have been made at different review periods. A popular approach to this problem is the so-called sequential replacement method, which calculates the impact of each individual factor. Unfortunately, this method has a serious deficiency: the estimated impact of a factor depends upon the order of the replacement. To counteract this defect, a new approach, called the chain rule approach, is developed. Using this approach, an explicit formula is given for calculating the impact and the marginal impact of each factor.

Job Complexity, "Type A" Behavior, And Cardiovascular Disorder: A Prospective Study, John Schaubroeck, Daniel C. Ganster, Barbara Ellen Kemmerer

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Interview-based measures of "type A" behavior and psychological and task-person indexes of job complexity were obtained from 251 police and fire department employees with sound cardiovascular health. Fol- low-up data on cardiovascular disorder were collected seven years later from participants who had remained with their organizations. The type A behavior pattern predicted cardiovascular disorder over time, and the relationships between the two complexity indexes and cardio- vascular morbidity were positive among individuals with high type A behavior ratings but negative among those with low ratings. We discuss the implications of these findings for worker health and job design.

Discussion Of David Knox's "A Critique Of Defined Contribution Plans Using A Simulation Approach", Michael Sze

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

Global Social Security: How The Rules Are Changing In Certain Countries, Robert J. Myers

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Social security programs (i.e., national pension systems) differ widely between countries. This is only natural, and desirable, because of varying social and economic conditions and philosophies. This paper discusses some of the general worldwide trends, such as the equal treatment of men and women, increases in the normal retirement age, projection of future costs, and the different philosophies of social security. Some of the interesting and unique changes recently made in selected countries-Canada, Chile, Eastern European countries, Germany, Japan, People's Republic of China, Saudi Arabia, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, United Kingdom, and United States-are described.

A Critique Of Defined Contribution Plans Using A Simulation Approach, David M. Knox

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

During the 1980s there was a trend in many countries away from defined benefit plans toward defined contribution plans. This development means that the individual member bears the full investment risk in the preretirement period and the annuity rate risk at retirement, as no pension benefit (expressed as a percentage of salary) is provided. This paper, through the use of a stochastic model for both inflation and a range of investment returns, analyses the distribution of retirement incomes that will be produced from a defined contribution plan. The impacts of changing entry and exit ages, different investment strategies, alternative career …

Discussion Of Mark J. Browne's "The Definition Of Insurance: Implications For A Health Insurance Demand Model", Charles Fuhrer

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

Estimating The Effect Of Statutory Changes On Insured Casualty Losses Using Generalized Indicator Variables, Ruy A. Cardoso

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Techniques for estimating future insured losses in casualty insurance typically assume consistency in the insurance environment over time. Statutory changes, however, can create sharp discontinuities in the loss-generating process, complicating the estimation of those losses. Using indicator variables and dummy variables allows for quantification of the effect of such discontinuities. Three examples from private passenger automobile insurance are presented to illustrate how these variables can be used.

The Definition Of Insurance: Implications For A Health Insurance Demand Model, Mark J. Browne

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses data from the 1977-78 National Medical Care Expenditures Survey to evaluate five different measures of insurance: a family's expected out-of-pocket payment for medical care, the expected value of the indemnity (fee-for-service) benefits from an insurance policy for a family, the percentage of the expected loss that the insured pays, the policy premium, and the policy limit of coverage. The study provides information that can help us understand whose insurance coverage will change significantly as a result of health care reform. For example, it shows that those with low income (such as minorities, families headed by females, and …

On The Equivalence Of The Loss Ratio And Pure Premium Methods Of Determining Property And Casualty Rating Relativities, Robert L. Brown

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

There are two distinct stages in the property and casualty ratemaking process. First, there is the portfolio average rate change. Second, there is the adjustment of classification relativities. It is well known that the loss ratio and pure premium (also called the loss cost) methods are algebraically equivalent in the stage called the portfolio average rate change. This paper reviews the proof of this equivalence. Further, it is proved algebraically that the loss ratio and pure premium methods are also equivalent in calculating classification relativities (or differentials) if certain data requirements can be met. A short numerical example of this …

The Process Of Pension Forecasting, Michael Sze

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper explains the process of pension forecasting. It discusses the common purposes and uses of pension forecasts, the major steps involved, and the principal limitations of these forecasts. Some insights into each stage of the forecasting process are provided. Among the stages discussed are: the background research to be performed; the selection of scenario assumptions; shortcuts used in the actual performance of the forecast; review of the forecast results; and communication of the forecast findings.

Book Reviews, Hoque A. Sharif

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

A New Approach To Modeling Excess Mortality, Peter D. England, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper describes a complete framework for the statistical modeling of excess mortality, with particular reference to the experience of insured, impaired lives. The principal measure of excess mortality considered is the standardized mortality ratio. The modeling approach, based on the theory of generalized linear models, allows us to build models containing several explanatory variables. The statistical significance of these variables can be tested, and the effect of interactions between the variables can be assessed rigorously. The paper uses data drawn from the extensive, continuing investigation into the mortality of insured, impaired lives conducted by the Prudential Assurance Company (UK). …

Group Insurance, Charles Fuhrer

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

On Becoming A Cost Effective Company, Robert D. Shapiro, Barton H. Clennon

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The 1990s financial services environment requires each life company to identify its distinct capabilities and competitive strengths and to build its future direction from these features. This demands a fundamental rethinking of traditional approaches to planning, organization, and financial management.

Ethical Issues, Helps, And Challenges: Perceptions Of U.S. Actuaries, Therese M. Vaughan, Robert W. Cooper, Garry L. Frank

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper reports the findings of a survey of Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS) to determine their perceptions of the key ethical issues and dilemmas facing the industry today and the factors they view as most helpful and challenging in resolving these dilemmas. The responses are compared to a previous survey of Fellows of the Society of Actuaries (FSA). The study finds that FSAs and FCASs tend to rank key ethical issues similarly and that both groups of actuaries tend to look first to their own personal values, second to certain factors in their business environment, and last …

Life Insurance Applications Of Recursive Formulas, Timothy L. Giles

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses several practical applications of recursive formulas:

a) Traditional whole life-As an introduction, the well-known relationship between successive terminal reserves is reviewed. Recursive formulas are developed to calculate the reserves and the premiums;

b) Universal life-Recursive formulas are used both for the calculation of target premiums and reserves. Consideration is given to the TEFRA corridor;

c) Paid-up rider-A participating single premium rider that provides a level death benefit can be devised using an inherent one year term benefit. Recursive functions are used to determine the premium that precisely matures the rider.

Because the APL programming language is particularly …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 1, No.1, 1993, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Global Social Security: How the Rules are Changing in Certain Countries • Robert J. Myers

On Becoming a Cost Effective Company • Robert D. Shapiro and Barton H. Clennon

The Process of Pension Forecasting • Michael Sze

Cost-Based Pricing of Individual Automobile Risk Transfer: Car-Mile Exposure Unit Analysis • Patrick Butler

Discussion • Ruy A. Cardoso & Richard G. WolI & Patrick Butler's Reply

A New Approach to Modeling Excess Mortality • Peter D. England and Steven Haberman

The Small Plan Audit Program: The Opinions of the Court • Arnold F. Shapiro

BOOK REVIEWS

A. Hoque Sharif reviews "Options …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 1, No. 2, 1993, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Ethical Issues, Helps, and Challenges: Perceptions of U.S. Actuaries • Therese M. Vaughan, Robert W. Cooper, and Garry L. Frank

Managing the Relative Volumes of Participating and Nonparticipating Business in a Mutual Life Company • Robert G. Chadburn

A Critique of Defined Contribution Plans Using a Simulation Approach • David M. Knox

Discussion • Michael Sze & David M. Knox's Reply

The Definition of Insurance: Implications for a Health Insurance Demand Model • Mark J. Browne

Discussion • Charles S. Fuhrer & Mark J. Browne's Reply

On the Equivalence of the Loss Ratio and Pure Premium Methods of Determining …

Funding Methods And Pension Plan Amendments, Keith P. Sharp

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper considers the treatment of plan amendments under the individual entry age normal and projected unit credit methods. Alternative treatments are considered, and comments are made about their acceptability.

The Small Plan Audit Program: The Opinions Of The Court, Arnold F. Shapiro

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

One of the most important issues of recent years from the perspective of many pension actuaries is the IRS's small plan audit program. The program initially was expected to raise two-thirds of a billion dollars by targeting well-funded defined benefit plans with five or fewer participants. The focus of the audit was the assumed interest rate and the normal retirement age, both of which the IRS generally regarded as too low. While the focus of the audit was relatively narrow, the issue it raised was a funda mental one. The basic question was the extent to which the IRS could …

Managing The Relative Volumes Of Participating And Nonparticipating Business In A Mutual Life Company, Robert G. Chadburn

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Management decisions of a mutual life company involving the amounts and relative proportions of participating (with profits) and nonparticipating (without profits) business and the level of expenses are examined in relation to their effect on participating policyholders' returns. A particular expense ratio is defined that plays a key role in a framework for making such decisions. The sensitivity of participating policy returns to changes in each factor are analyzed. Companies with expense ratios (as defined) of less than 2 are shown to prefer a different strategy from companies with higher ratios. There is an incomplete tendency for the ratio to …