Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

The Importance Of Marketing And Total Quality Management In Libraries, Rajashekhar D. Kumbar

E-JASL: Electronic Journal of Academic and Special Librarianship (1999-2009, Volumes 1-10)

Introduction

Herb White, states in Library Journal, “... it should be fairly clear that librarians do not market and that they never have marketed.” He concludes, “What we need to tell people is not how wonderful our public libraries are but rather how wonderful they could be. The awakening of these dreams is the purpose of marketing” (Besant & Sharp, 2000). Since the 1960’s, the most widely taught marketing concept was the marketing mix theory: the 4Ps (product, price, place and promotion)—so clean, so neat, so inappropriate for libraries. Marketing theory cannot always be so succinctly described since relationships …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 11, 2004, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES (the entire volume)

Product Innovation in Financial Services: A Survey • Christopher O'Brien 5

Phased Retirement for Defined Benefit Plan Participants • Patricia L. Scahill and Jonathan Barry Forman . 43

The Actuarial Value of Life Insurance Backdating • James M Carson and Krzysztof M Ostaszewski . 63

Decision Tree Analysis of Terminated Life Insurance Policies • Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, and Hian Chye Koh . 79

A Comparative Study of Parametric and Nonparametric Estimators of Old-Age Mortality in Sweden • Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, and Kitt Skovsø Petersen 103

Estimation of Complete …

A Comparative Study Of Parametric And Nonparametric Estimators Of Old-Age Mortality In Sweden, Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, Kitt Skovso Petersen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A recent study of Swedish old-age mortality used a modified GompertzMakeham model with a linear hazard for the force of mortality. We propose an alternative model using smooth two-dimensional kernel hazard estimators and introduce a new estimator based on the multiplicative bias correction for the multivariate marker dependent hazard. The multiplicative bias correction appears to have great potential for estimating mortality rates at the highest ages. We also observe that mortality continues to increase at an exponential rate even in old-age.

Phased Retirement For Defined Benefit Plan Participants, Patricia L. Scahill, Jonathan Barry Forman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The demographic makeup of the U.S. workforce is changing. The population between ages SS and 64 is projected to increase significantly by 2020, but employment rates for this age group have not been increasing. Employers will likely need to encourage critical employees in this age group to delay retirement. Phased retirement is one tool for delaying retirement, while also not continuing full-time employment, so it can be a compromise for employers and employees. Both Congress and two administrative agencies have begun to consider changes in pension laws and regulations that would be needed to accommodate phased retirement for employers who …

Credibility Theory And Geometry, Elias S.W. Shiu, Fuk Yum Sing

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We present a geometric approach to studying greatest accuracy credibility theory. Our main tool is the concept of orthogonal projections. We show, for example, that to determine the Buhlmann credibility premium is to find the coefficients of the minimum-norm vector in an affine space spanned by certain orthogonal random variables. Our approach is illustrated by deriving various common credibility formulas. Several equivalent forms of the credibility factor Z are derived by means of similar triangles.

Estimation Of Complete Period Life Tables For Singaporeans, Siu-Hang Li, Wai-Sum Chan

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Complete period life tables, with death rates for every year of age, are not available in Singapore. This study constructs such tables for Singaporeans from the limited mortality information contained in the abridged life tables provided by the Singapore Department of Statistics. We find that linear interpolation, Whittaker graduation, and the Coale-Kisker method together can generate complete life tables that are smooth and continuous. The validity of the complete life tables generated by our method is further confirmed by (1) comparing the life expectancies calculated from our estimated life tables with those provided by the Singapore Department of Statistics, and …

Measuring Cognitive Ability With The Overclaiming Technique, Delroy L. Paulhus, Peter D. Harms

Leadership Institute: Faculty Publications

The overclaiming technique requires respondents to rate their familiarity with a list of general knowledge items (persons, places, things). Because 20% of the items are foils (i.e., do not exist), the response pattern can be analyzed with signal detection methods to yield the accuracy and bias scores for each respondent. In Study 1, the accuracy index showed strong associations with two standard IQ tests (β = .50–.59). Study 2 replicated the validity of the accuracy index with IQ and showed coherent associations with school grades, peer ratings, and self-ratings. Study 3 ensured that the validity of the accuracy index is …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 11 (2004) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, …

The Actuarial Value Of Life Insurance Backdating, James M. Carson, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Backdating is a common (and legal) practice in the U.S. whereby a life insurance contract bears a policy date that is prior to the actual application date. This practice often results in the opportunity for some insureds to reduce the annual premium paid. Using cash flow projections and U.S. mortality, lapse, and interest rate data, we provide a model of the actuarial value of term life insurance backdating. Results indicate that the benefits to the applicant of backdating a term life insurance policy increase as the applicant age (and hence premium) increases. Increasing mortality, lapse, and interest rates, as well …

Decision Tree Analysis Of Terminated Life Insurance Policies, Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, Hian Chye Koh

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Statistical methods such as regression and survival analysis have traditionally been used to investigate the factors affecting the duration of terminated life insurance policies. This study explores a different approach: it uses a more recently developed data mining technique called decision trees. By sequentially partitioning the data to maximize differences in the dependent variable (duration in this study), the decision trees technique is good at identifying data segments with significant differences in the dependent variable. This identification can be useful when a company is trying to understand the factors driving or associated with the termination of life insurance policies. Decision …

Rapid Calculation Of The Price Of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit Ratchet Options Embedded In Annuities, Eric R. Ulm

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper presents a new method of obtaining quick and accurate values and deltas for discrete look back options using Taylor series expansions. This method is applied to the case of ratchet guaranteed minimum death benefits attached to annuity contracts, and the method is extended to include annuities where a fixed fund is attached to the variable account. Finally, both the speed and the accuracy of the method are compared to Monte Carlo simulation and the exact analytic solution. The Taylor expansion method is shown to be faster and, in most cases, more accurate than the alternative methods.

Approximating The Bias And Variance Of Chain Ladder Estimates Under A Compound Poisson Model, Janagan Yogaranpan, Sue Clarke, Shauna Ferris, John Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the problem of estimating the outstanding claims produced by a homogeneous general insurance portfolio. The specific model considered in this paper is one where the number of claims in any loss period follows a Poisson distribution, settlement delays follow the same multinomial distribution, and settlements are single lump sums that are independent identically distributed random variables. Simulations using this model reveal that the development ratios and the outstanding claims estimates produced using the chain ladder method are positively biased. We obtain approximate formulas for the biases using Taylor series expansions of the random variables about their means. The …

Product Innovation In Financial Services: A Survey, Christopher O'Brien

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper considers product innovation in insurance and other financial services, an area where actuaries have an important role. It considers the proposition that there is no unique formula for success and that what works well in one situation may not work well in another. It first examines the sources of ideas for new products and, in particular, the role played by consumers, which is generally regarded as weak. It then looks at how ideas are implemented, with particular importance attributed to cross-functional teams and the formality of the product development process. Then it considers how success is measured (with …

Positive Psychological Capital: Beyond Human And Social Capital, Fred Luthans, Kyle W. Luthans, Brett C. Luthans

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

With the rising recognition of human resources as a competitive advantage in today’s global economy, human capital and, more recently, social capital are being touted in both theory, research, and practice. To date, however, positive psychological capital has been virtually ignored by both business academics and practitioners. “Who I am” is every bit as important as “what I know” and “who I know.” By eschewing a preoccupation with personal shortcomings and dysfunctions and focusing instead on personal strengths and good qualities, today’s leaders and their associates can develop confidence, hope, optimism, and resilience, thereby improving both individual and organizational performance.

Human, Social, And Now Positive Psychological Capital Management: Investing In People For Competitive Advantage, Fred Luthans, Carolyn M. Youssef

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

There is growing evidence that human resources are crucial to organizational success, and may offer the best return on investment for sustainable competitive advantage. Jeffery Pfeffer’s extensive work, summarized in his book The Human Equation, discusses substantially supported but unfortunate findings that only about half of today’s organizations and their managers believe that human resources really do matter. Moreover, only half of those organizations act upon their beliefs beyond paying lip service to this vital resource. Few organizations have adopted high performance work practices, such as 360-degree feedback, pay-for-performance, self-managed teams, employee empowerment, and other human-oriented initiatives. Furthermore, Pfeffer shows …

Recognition And Development Of Hope For South African Organizational Leaders, Fred Luthans, René Van Wyk, Fred Walumbwa

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

The significant challenges faced by South Africa at present are well known. How to deal with the problems from a political and economic perspective abound, but taking a psychological approach has been neglected. This paper proposes a positive approach to South African organizational leadership based on the psychological capacity of hope. After giving a brief background on the context surrounding South African organizations, the theory, research, and application of hope relevant to organizational leadership in the “Rainbow Nation” are presented and analyzed. Such an overlooked positive approach represented by hopeful organizational leaders seems needed at this juncture of South Africa’s …

Unlocking The Mask: A Look At The Process By Which Authentic Leaders Impact Follower Attitudes And Behaviors, Bruce Avolio, William L. Gardner, Fred Walumbwa, Fred Luthans, Douglas R. May

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

The conceptual and empirical links between authentic leadership and follower attitudes, behaviors, and performance outcomes have not been fully developed. Although we have a number of articles developing the theory of authentic leadership and testing propositions that will appear in a forthcoming special issue of The Leadership Quarterly (Vol. 16, Issue 3, 2005), the focus of this article is to provide some of the initial foundation work for the broader theoretical framework of how authentic leaders influence follower attitudes, behaviors, and performance. Here, we draw from positive organizational behavior, trust, hope, emotion, identification, and identity theories to describe the processes …

It Competency And Firm Performance: Is Organizational Learning A Missing Link?, Michael J. Tippins, Ravipreet S. Sohi

Department of Marketing: Faculty Publications

Many companies have developed strategies that include investing heavily in information technology (IT) in order to enhance their performance. Yet, this investment pays off for some companies but not others. This study proposes that organization teaming plays a significant role in determining the outcomes of IT. Drawing from resource theory and IT literature, the authors develop the concept of IT competency. Using structural equations modeling with data collected from managers in 271 manufacturing firms, they show that organizational learning plays a significant role in mediating the effects of IT competency on firm performance.

The Over-Claiming Technique: Measuring Self-Enhancement Independent Of Ability, Delroy L. Paulhus, Peter D. Harms, M. Nadine Bruce, Daria C. Lysy

Leadership Institute: Faculty Publications

Overclaiming is a concrete operationalization of self-enhancement based on respondents’ ratings of their knowledge of various persons, events, products, and so on. Because 20% of the items are nonexistent, responses can be analyzed with signal detection formulas to index both response bias (over-claiming) and accuracy (knowledge). Study 1 demonstrated convergence of over-claiming with alternative measures of self-enhancement but independence from cognitive ability. In Studies 2–3, the validity of the overclaiming index held even when respondents were (a) warned about the foils or (b) asked to fake good. Study 3 also showed the utility of the over-claiming index for diagnosing faking. …

Behavioral Management And Task Performance In Organizations: Conceptual Background, Meta-Analysis, And Test Of Alternative Models, Alexander D. Stajkovic, Fred Luthans

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

In this study, we provide the conceptual background, meta-analyze available behavioral management studies (N = 72) in organizational settings, and examine whether combined reinforcement effects on task performance are additive (sum of individual effects), redundant (combined effects are less than the additive effects), or synergistic (combined effects are greater than the sum of the individual effects). We found a significant overall average effect size of (d.) = .47 (16% improvement in performance; 63% probability of success), and a significant within-group heterogeneity of effect sizes. To account for this variation, we conducted a theory-driven moderator analysis, which indicated that money, feedback, …

360-Degree Feedback With Systematic Coaching: Empirical Analysis Suggests A Winning Combination, Fred Luthans, Suzanne J. Peterson

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Wanted: High-performance work practices to gain a competitive advantage. An increasingly common answer to this desperate call is 360-degree programs; unfortunately, they have, at best, mixed reviews when empirically assessed. This study found that a way to improve the effectiveness of 360s may be to combine them with coaching focused on enhanced self-awareness and behavioral management. In a small manufacturer, this feedback-coaching resulted in improved manager and employee satisfaction, commitment, intentions to turnover, and at least indirectly, this firm’s performance. This feedback-coaching may be a winning combination to help in the competitive battles in today’s global economy.

What Knowledge Managers Really Do: An Empirical And Comparative Analysis, Arben Asllani, Fred Luthans

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

The advent of information technology has generated not only interest in how to acquire, store and ‘‘mine’’ data, but also how to manage knowledge. Yet, there is still considerable confusion and a lack of understanding of what today’s knowledge managers really do. Continuing a stream of previous research on the behavior activities of traditional managers, this study investigated the relative amount of time today’s knowledge managers (N = 307) spend on traditional management functions, communications, human resources and networking. Besides identifying what knowledge managers really do, this study examined what successful knowledge managers do. Comparisons are then made with …

Complexity Theory And Al Qaeda: Examining Complex Leadership, Russ Marion, Mary Uhl-Bien

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Recent events in the world are forcing us to restructure our understanding of leadership and organization. The al- Qaeda organization and its pervasive presence in the world demonstrated first-hand the power of a flexible, moderately coupled network of individuals brought together by a common need and aligned behind an informal and emergent leader. Its structure, which resulted from bottom-up coordination of individuals who voluntarily came together based on common need rather than from top-down hierarchical control, clearly demonstrates the power of a networked system based on relationships and shared vision and mission. To understand this and other types of network …

Reciprocity In Manager-Subordinate Relationships: Components, Configurations, And Outcomes, Mary Uhl-Bien, John M. Maslyn

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

The present study examines both positive and negative norms of reciprocity in managerial work relationships by assessing three components of reciprocal behavior: immediacy, equivalence, and interest motive. The findings show that subordinate reports of immediacy, equivalence, and self-interest were negatively associated, and mutual-interest was positively associated, with relationship quality as reported by both subordinates and managers (other-interest was not significant). These components of reciprocity were also subjected to cluster analysis to identify groupings of reciprocity styles. The results indicate styles reflecting high quality (n = 65), low quality (n = 120), and negative social exchanges (n = …

The Duality Of Race And Gender For Managerial African American Women: Implications Of Informal Social Networks On Career Advancement, Gwendolyn Combs

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Research suggests that women have progressed in equalizing their representation, status, and earning power as managers in organizations. These improvements may not reflect the career advancement of managerial African American women. African American women contend with the convergence of race and gender in improving their organizational standing and career advancement opportunities. The literature on workplace social networks indicates that informal more than formal socialization systems are salient in advancing careers. Due to the duality of race and gender, African American women in managerial and executive positions may be forced into out-group status in terms of informal social networks. Informal social …

Use Of Exemplar Surveys To Reveal Implicit Types Of Intelligence, Delroy L. Paulhus, Paul Wehr, Peter D. Harms, David I. Strasser

Leadership Institute: Faculty Publications

Implicit theories of intelligence were investigated via surveys of exemplars of intelligence. Study 1 was a four-sample survey of famous exemplars. These diverse samples reported a similar set of popular exemplars, which clustered into five groups. These groups represented five types of intelligence: scientific, artistic, entrepreneurial, communicative, and moral intelligence. In Study 2, the minimal overlap of intelligence exemplars with those of fame, creativity, and wisdom refuted the possibility that exemplar reports are indiscriminate or solely a result of availability. In Study 3, knowledgeable judges rated the similarity of 50 famous persons to exemplars representing each type of intelligence. All …

Modeling Size-Of-Loss Distributions For Exact Data In Winbugs, David P.M. Scollnik

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses how the statistical software WinBUGS can be used to implement a Bayesian analysis of several popular severity models applied to exact size-of-Ioss data. The particular models targeted are the gamma, inverse gamma, loggamma, lognormal, (two-parameter) Pareto, inverse (two-parameter) Pareto, Weibull, and inverse Weibull distributions. It is possible to implement additional size-of-Ioss models (including those for truncated data) using methods analogous to those described herein.

Unearned Premiums And Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses In Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Joseph Cheng

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A prorata formula is commonly used to calculate unearned premium reserves in property-casualty insurance. I believe, however, that an exposure-adjusted formula is more appropriate in automobile extended warranties. This paper describes the exposure-adjusted approach to calculate the unearned premium reserves of an automobile extended warranty insurance program, to test the adequacy of the calculated reserves, and to determine the allowable deferred policy acquisition expenses from an insurance company's perspective.

Can Utility-Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning?, Zaki Khorasanee

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Utility-maximization models for optimizing portfolio choices can be subdivided into two classes: those based on maximizing the expected utility of lifetime consumption and those based on maximizing the expected utility of retirement wealth. It is argued that the first type of model, which optimizes both saving and investment decisions, is difficult to apply in practice because of inadequate (or unreliable) information about individual preferences. Although the second type of model only optimizes investment decisions, it is of greater practical value because fewer data on individual preferences are required. The second type of model is used to derive formulae for the …

Some Comments On The Pricing Of An Exotic Excess Of Loss Treaty, Jean-Francois Walhin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses a multivariate analog of Panjer's algorithm to develop a method for pricing a complex excess of loss treaty. The treaty is such that some layers inure to the benefit of other layers. The structure of this treaty is discussed. Numerical examples are provided.