Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

Global Social Security: How The Rules Are Changing In Certain Countries, Robert J. Myers

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Social security programs (i.e., national pension systems) differ widely between countries. This is only natural, and desirable, because of varying social and economic conditions and philosophies. This paper discusses some of the general worldwide trends, such as the equal treatment of men and women, increases in the normal retirement age, projection of future costs, and the different philosophies of social security. Some of the interesting and unique changes recently made in selected countries-Canada, Chile, Eastern European countries, Germany, Japan, People's Republic of China, Saudi Arabia, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, United Kingdom, and United States-are described.

A Critique Of Defined Contribution Plans Using A Simulation Approach, David M. Knox

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

During the 1980s there was a trend in many countries away from defined benefit plans toward defined contribution plans. This development means that the individual member bears the full investment risk in the preretirement period and the annuity rate risk at retirement, as no pension benefit (expressed as a percentage of salary) is provided. This paper, through the use of a stochastic model for both inflation and a range of investment returns, analyses the distribution of retirement incomes that will be produced from a defined contribution plan. The impacts of changing entry and exit ages, different investment strategies, alternative career …

Discussion Of Mark J. Browne's "The Definition Of Insurance: Implications For A Health Insurance Demand Model", Charles Fuhrer

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

Estimating The Effect Of Statutory Changes On Insured Casualty Losses Using Generalized Indicator Variables, Ruy A. Cardoso

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Techniques for estimating future insured losses in casualty insurance typically assume consistency in the insurance environment over time. Statutory changes, however, can create sharp discontinuities in the loss-generating process, complicating the estimation of those losses. Using indicator variables and dummy variables allows for quantification of the effect of such discontinuities. Three examples from private passenger automobile insurance are presented to illustrate how these variables can be used.

The Definition Of Insurance: Implications For A Health Insurance Demand Model, Mark J. Browne

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses data from the 1977-78 National Medical Care Expenditures Survey to evaluate five different measures of insurance: a family's expected out-of-pocket payment for medical care, the expected value of the indemnity (fee-for-service) benefits from an insurance policy for a family, the percentage of the expected loss that the insured pays, the policy premium, and the policy limit of coverage. The study provides information that can help us understand whose insurance coverage will change significantly as a result of health care reform. For example, it shows that those with low income (such as minorities, families headed by females, and …

On The Equivalence Of The Loss Ratio And Pure Premium Methods Of Determining Property And Casualty Rating Relativities, Robert L. Brown

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

There are two distinct stages in the property and casualty ratemaking process. First, there is the portfolio average rate change. Second, there is the adjustment of classification relativities. It is well known that the loss ratio and pure premium (also called the loss cost) methods are algebraically equivalent in the stage called the portfolio average rate change. This paper reviews the proof of this equivalence. Further, it is proved algebraically that the loss ratio and pure premium methods are also equivalent in calculating classification relativities (or differentials) if certain data requirements can be met. A short numerical example of this …

The Process Of Pension Forecasting, Michael Sze

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper explains the process of pension forecasting. It discusses the common purposes and uses of pension forecasts, the major steps involved, and the principal limitations of these forecasts. Some insights into each stage of the forecasting process are provided. Among the stages discussed are: the background research to be performed; the selection of scenario assumptions; shortcuts used in the actual performance of the forecast; review of the forecast results; and communication of the forecast findings.

Book Reviews, Hoque A. Sharif

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

A New Approach To Modeling Excess Mortality, Peter D. England, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper describes a complete framework for the statistical modeling of excess mortality, with particular reference to the experience of insured, impaired lives. The principal measure of excess mortality considered is the standardized mortality ratio. The modeling approach, based on the theory of generalized linear models, allows us to build models containing several explanatory variables. The statistical significance of these variables can be tested, and the effect of interactions between the variables can be assessed rigorously. The paper uses data drawn from the extensive, continuing investigation into the mortality of insured, impaired lives conducted by the Prudential Assurance Company (UK). …

Group Insurance, Charles Fuhrer

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

On Becoming A Cost Effective Company, Robert D. Shapiro, Barton H. Clennon

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The 1990s financial services environment requires each life company to identify its distinct capabilities and competitive strengths and to build its future direction from these features. This demands a fundamental rethinking of traditional approaches to planning, organization, and financial management.

Ethical Issues, Helps, And Challenges: Perceptions Of U.S. Actuaries, Therese M. Vaughan, Robert W. Cooper, Garry L. Frank

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper reports the findings of a survey of Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS) to determine their perceptions of the key ethical issues and dilemmas facing the industry today and the factors they view as most helpful and challenging in resolving these dilemmas. The responses are compared to a previous survey of Fellows of the Society of Actuaries (FSA). The study finds that FSAs and FCASs tend to rank key ethical issues similarly and that both groups of actuaries tend to look first to their own personal values, second to certain factors in their business environment, and last …

Life Insurance Applications Of Recursive Formulas, Timothy L. Giles

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses several practical applications of recursive formulas:

a) Traditional whole life-As an introduction, the well-known relationship between successive terminal reserves is reviewed. Recursive formulas are developed to calculate the reserves and the premiums;

b) Universal life-Recursive formulas are used both for the calculation of target premiums and reserves. Consideration is given to the TEFRA corridor;

c) Paid-up rider-A participating single premium rider that provides a level death benefit can be devised using an inherent one year term benefit. Recursive functions are used to determine the premium that precisely matures the rider.

Because the APL programming language is particularly …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 1, No.1, 1993, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Global Social Security: How the Rules are Changing in Certain Countries • Robert J. Myers

On Becoming a Cost Effective Company • Robert D. Shapiro and Barton H. Clennon

The Process of Pension Forecasting • Michael Sze

Cost-Based Pricing of Individual Automobile Risk Transfer: Car-Mile Exposure Unit Analysis • Patrick Butler

Discussion • Ruy A. Cardoso & Richard G. WolI & Patrick Butler's Reply

A New Approach to Modeling Excess Mortality • Peter D. England and Steven Haberman

The Small Plan Audit Program: The Opinions of the Court • Arnold F. Shapiro

BOOK REVIEWS

A. Hoque Sharif reviews "Options …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 1, No. 2, 1993, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Ethical Issues, Helps, and Challenges: Perceptions of U.S. Actuaries • Therese M. Vaughan, Robert W. Cooper, and Garry L. Frank

Managing the Relative Volumes of Participating and Nonparticipating Business in a Mutual Life Company • Robert G. Chadburn

A Critique of Defined Contribution Plans Using a Simulation Approach • David M. Knox

Discussion • Michael Sze & David M. Knox's Reply

The Definition of Insurance: Implications for a Health Insurance Demand Model • Mark J. Browne

Discussion • Charles S. Fuhrer & Mark J. Browne's Reply

On the Equivalence of the Loss Ratio and Pure Premium Methods of Determining …

Funding Methods And Pension Plan Amendments, Keith P. Sharp

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper considers the treatment of plan amendments under the individual entry age normal and projected unit credit methods. Alternative treatments are considered, and comments are made about their acceptability.

The Small Plan Audit Program: The Opinions Of The Court, Arnold F. Shapiro

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

One of the most important issues of recent years from the perspective of many pension actuaries is the IRS's small plan audit program. The program initially was expected to raise two-thirds of a billion dollars by targeting well-funded defined benefit plans with five or fewer participants. The focus of the audit was the assumed interest rate and the normal retirement age, both of which the IRS generally regarded as too low. While the focus of the audit was relatively narrow, the issue it raised was a funda mental one. The basic question was the extent to which the IRS could …

Managing The Relative Volumes Of Participating And Nonparticipating Business In A Mutual Life Company, Robert G. Chadburn

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Management decisions of a mutual life company involving the amounts and relative proportions of participating (with profits) and nonparticipating (without profits) business and the level of expenses are examined in relation to their effect on participating policyholders' returns. A particular expense ratio is defined that plays a key role in a framework for making such decisions. The sensitivity of participating policy returns to changes in each factor are analyzed. Companies with expense ratios (as defined) of less than 2 are shown to prefer a different strategy from companies with higher ratios. There is an incomplete tendency for the ratio to …

Cost-Based Pricing Of Individual Automobile Risk Transfer: Car-Mile Exposure Unit Analysis, Patrick Butler

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Every mile traveled by a car transfers risk to its insurer. This paper posits that the product of a cents-per-mile rate based on class experience and the miles recorded on the car's odometer appropriately earns prepaid premium while the car is driven. Operation of a practical car-mile system is described briefly. To test the competing idea that driver-record pricing responds to known large differences in risk transfer, a model used to validate claim free discounts is reexamined with the car-mile as the measure of individual cost. Driver-record pricing is found to inflate car-year price-to-cost differences. Consequences of accident rate variability …

Discussion Of Patrick Butler's "Cost-Based Pricing Of Individual Automobile Risk Transfer: Car-Mile Exposure Unit Analysis", Ruy A. Cardoso

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

No abstract provided.

Event-Study Methodology Under Conditions Of Event-Induced Variance, Ekkehart Boehmer, Jim Masumeci, Annette B. Poulsen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many authors have identified the hazards of ignoring event-induced variance in event studies. To determine the practical extent of the problem, we simulate an event with stochastic effects. We find that when an event causes even minor increases in variance, the most commonly-used methods reject the null hypothesis of zero average abnormal return too frequently when it is true, although they are reasonably powerful when it is false. We demonstrate that a simple adjustment to the cross-sectional techniques produces appropriate rejection rates when the null is true and equally powerful tests when it is false.

A Direct Test Of Rock's Model Of The Pricing Of Unseasoned Issues, Francis Koh, Terry Walter

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Unique data availability and institutional arrangements for new issues in Singapore allow a direct test of the empirical implications of Rock's model of pricing unseasoned new issues. Our empirical results are consistent with the model. Specifically we find that the unseasoned new issues' anomaly disappears when the rationing associated with new issues is incorporated into the analysis. The winner's curse is evident in allocation patterns used in Singapore.

Ambiguities In The Cross-Section Analysis Of Per Share Financial Data, E G. Davis, D M. Dunn, William (Bill) H. Williams

Publications and Research

In analyzing corporate financial data it is standard procedure to adjust the data to reflect the current number of shares outstanding. In this study, we show that this simple ,standard procedure can cause serious difficulties in a financial analysis.

A Simple Method For The Construction Of Empirical Confidence Limits For Economic Forecasts, William (Bill) H. Williams, M. L. Goodman

Publications and Research

A simple method for the construction of empirical confidence intervals for time series forecasts is described. The procedure is to go through the series making a forecast from each point in time. The comparison of these forecasts with the known actual observations will yield an empirical distribution of forecasting errors. This distribution can then be used to set confidence intervals for subsequent forecasts. The technique appears to be particularly useful when the mechanism generating the series cannot be fully identified from the available data or when limits based on more standard considerations are difficult to obtain.

A Statistical Grouping Of Corporations By Their Financial Characteristics., William (Bill) H. Williams, Michael L. Goodman

Publications and Research

It appears to a widely held view that corporations with similar operational characteristics ought to have similar financial characteristics. For example, one might expect that the financial characteristics of two drug companies would be similar. This seems entirely reasonable. Unfortunately however, there does not appear to be any quantitative analysis of this point in the literature. Furthermore, discussions with our financial colleagues lead to the conclusion that, if such financial differentiation of corporations were possible, it is by no means obvious what the variables of differentiation would be. Consequently, such an analysis was undertaken and is described in this paper. …