Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Unexpected Movement In Monetary Aggregates And Its Effect On Asset Price In Thailand, Paripon Sriboon

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This paper aims to develop a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to study the dynamic relationships between broad money and other macroeconomics variables in Thailand. The structural restrictions on SVAR model are based on economics intuition and novel finding that money does not react contemporaneously to transitory component of the short-term interest rate. The model also features stock price and house price as the different response of asset price and goods price will be monitored. There are total of seven monthly endogenous variables included in the model covering the period of 2010 - 2020. The result based on forecast error …

Determining The Tracking Error And Value-At-Risk Of An Active Portfolio When Combined With A Passive Portfolio With Value-At-Risk Constraint, Nuttawoot Ladee

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

When an asset manager manages a portfolio, he usually imposes a TE or a VaR limit on his portfolio to control portfolio risks. However, a portfolio may be divided into different portions. In our research, we consider a portfolio that consists of an active portion and a passive portion. Having a VaR budget of an entire portfolio, we propose methods to determine TE and VaR limit on the active portfolio and illustrate them by using real data. In the empirical part, some problems can occur when we relax certain theoretical assumptions such as (1) stocks in an investment universe can …

Double Bottom Pattern Recognition For Trading Strategy, Chusana Nuntanart

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

We utilize the Double bottom pattern, which is a common and the most easily recognized reversal pattern in the technical analysis approach, to seek the existence of abnormal returns from 1 Jan 2009 to 31 Dec 2019. The general event study methodology was used to statistically test for the existence of abnormal returns from 611 stocks in SET. We concluded that there was an existence of abnormal return from trading with the Double bottom pattern strategy. This led to the conclusion that the Thai stock market might be not as informationally efficient as academics have conjectured.

Option Pricing Using Local Volatility Function: How To Specify Its Knots?, Wisuth Raweerojthanatt

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

European options of an asset are priced following a continuous 1-factor diffusion model and the generalized Black-Scholes equation. Volatility knots are determined by many specifications that are the number and the location of knots at any stock price and time to expiration. Considering the volatility knots as a set of decision variables, we can approximate the local volatility function with a bicubic spline function to compute option values fitted to a finite set of market data by solving a constrained nonlinear optimization problem. With the real market data of SET50 Index options, pricing accuracy of different knots’ specifications are demonstrated. …

Reverse Stress Testing On Non-Elliptical Jointly Distributed Multivariate Data, Chevincee Werawanich

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

No abstract provided.

The Hybrid Pareto Distribution, Implied Risk-Neutral Density And Option Pricing, Purin Luanloy

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This paper aims to develop a new European option pricing model based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We assume that, in the risk-neutral probability measure, simple negative returns of the S&P500 index follow the Hybrid Pareto (HP) distribution. Then, we derive closed-form pricing formulas for call and put options according to the risk-neutral pricing method. Additionally, we assume that the distribution has a fat tail. Our study’s benchmark model is the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model proposed by Markose and Alenton (2011). We estimate model parameters by minimizing the root-mean-square error. The results show that the HP model provides …

News Shocks And Business Cycle In Emerging Markets, Jakkraphan Kangwanvibul

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study examines news shocks in theoretical real-business-cycle model in the aspect of emerging-market economy. Many features in emerging-market business cycles, such as consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, sudden stop pattern in capital flows and strongly countercyclical current account to income, distinguish itself from a developed small opened economy, and in this study, it also differentiates itself from previous works in the literature by studying in the aspect of business cycles in emerging markets. The study uses simulation method, developing on real-business-cycle theory to generate artificial business cycle moments and impulse response function. For the result, it considers news …

Market Liquidity And Mutual Fund Performance During Financial Crisis, Matina O-Warinrat

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

Market illiquidity influences mutual fund performance differently between crisis and non-crisis period. A significant drop in market liquidity makes investors panic leading to the early and large redemption. Fund managers have to liquidate the portfolio putting pressure on the asset prices, so the underperformance of mutual fund is recognized in non-crisis period. However, the result of illiquidity is different during crisis. The total effect of market illiquidity is positively related to all fund classes. This could then be interpreted as the evidence of management skills, market-timing and volatility-timing skills in fund managers to provide superior fund performance. Moreover, the further …

Financial Vulnerability And The Reproduction Of Disadvantage In Economic Exchanges, Tianyu He, Rellie Derfler-Rozin, Marko Pitesa

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Integrative value generation through negotiated business deals is a fundamental way in which organizations and economic systems attain economic benefits. It is also an important way in which individuals can improve their financial situation. We propose that individuals most in need of improving their financial standing, those in a financially vulnerable situation, are least likely to reap the benefits of integrative value generation. We theorize that financial vulnerability induces a more zero-sum construal of success, or a view that success for one person must come at another person’s success. A more zero-sum construal of success, in turn, hampers negotiators’ ability …

Sell-Side Analysts' Benchmarks, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their recommendations. A buy for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its industry, while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform the market, or some return threshold. We show that these stated benchmarks have implications for the distribution of recommendations, price reactions to recommendations, and the investment value of recommendations. We conclude that, depending on the question, academics may need to account for the benchmarks when studying analysts’ outputs, and investors may find the benchmarks beneficial in interpreting analysts’ advice.

Potential Pilot Problems: Treatment Spillovers In Financial Regulatory Experiments, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In analyzing regulatory experiments, a fundamental assumption is that the control group is unaffected. However, in many settings, this assumption may not hold. Generally, the total effect of a regulatory change consists of direct and indirect effects, but the standard difference-in-difference approach measures only direct effects. We apply our methods to the 2007 repeal of the uptick rule by the SEC. The indirect effects are substantial, because unlike the 2005 partial repeal, total repeal enables aggressive portfolio shorting. In particular, we find that short sellers become much more aggressive across the board, and shorting activity increases, even in control stocks …

Sale-Leaseback Transactions: Price Premiums And Market Efficiency, C. F. Sirmans, Barrett A. Slade

Faculty Publications

Sale-leaseback transactions are ubiquitous in real estate markets in the United States with annual volume estimated to be greater than $7 billion. However, there is no evidence concerning the price impact of such transactional arrangements. Using a data set of sale-leaseback transactions, this study examines the price impact on commercial property transactions across seven markets. The findings reveal that transactions structured as saleleasebacks occur at significantly higher prices than market transactions. In addition, after accounting for income differentials, buyers and sellers are appropriately pricing the transactions resulting in no undue advantage to either party, that is, the expected price premium …

Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring In The Covid Crisis, Robin Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson, David Thesmar

Faculty Publications

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many surviving firms will need to be downsized or acquired. In normal times, this triage is supported by the court system, banks, and financial markets. The goal of this paper is to size up the coming surge of financial distress, list the challenges it presents in the current environment, and analyze potential policy solutions. …

Real Effects Of Search Frictions In Consumer Credit Markets, Bronson Argyle, Taylor Nadauld, Christopher Palmer

Faculty Publications

We establish two underappreciated facts about costly search. First, unless demand is perfectly inelastic, search frictions can result in significant deadweight loss by decreasing consumption. Second, whenever cross-price elasticities are non-zero, costly search in one market also affects quantities in other markets. As predicted by our model of search for credit under elastic demand, we show that search frictions in credit markets contribute to price dispersion, affect loan sizes, and decrease final-goods consumption. Using microdata from millions of auto-loan applications and originations not intermediated by car dealers, we isolate plausibly exogenous variation in interest rates due to institution-specific pricing rules …

Collaborative Regulatory Development In The Mobile Money Sector: A Case Study In Sri Lanka, Suwandaarachchi Chaminda Methsiri

Student Works (2020-2029)

Providing financial services for the unbanked has been challenging, mainly due to relatively high operational costs and the difficulty of reaching remote areas. Mobile money has brought bank-like facilities to the unbanked communities, through its low-cost operations and widespread agent network, thus making them financially included. Regulatory response and support are essential for this advancement, where they necessitate significant changes to the current regulatory practices. This task is difficult for regulators due to their limited technical knowledge and resources in the field of financial technologies. Regulators collaborate with industry to overcome these challenges. However, studies on such collaborations are scarce. …

Initial Public Offerings And Pricing Anomalies, Hon Wei Leow

Student Works (2020-2029)

Initial Public Offering (IPO) is a form of fundraising through the stock market of which has evolved as an essential platform to study the performance of newly issued shares. In the case of an emerging market like Malaysia, the pricing anomalies that measure the performance of initial return and flipping activity of IPO remain an interesting subject. During the period of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-09, it is believed that the market sentiment will affect the initial return of new IPO and oversubscription will be negative, and hence firms will be unwilling to do the new listing on the …

Determinants Of Defense Expenditure In South Korea, So Yeon Lee

Student Works (2020-2029)

This research pointed out the importance of defense spending as an „economic means‟ for national security in South Korea while due to the aftermath of US-China trade war, the threats and tension between North Korea and other neighboring countries such as China have become much more severe. In this context, an empirical study was conducted to investigate the factors determining national defense expenditure with secondary data from 1960 to 2018. The domestic factors namely economic growth, arms trade, the threat of North Korea and the Republic of Korea (ROK)-United States (US) defense alliance were established as those explanatory variables. The …

Rethinking The Regulatory Sandbox For Financial Innovation: An Assessment Of The Uk And Singapore, Christopher Chen

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

After the UK launched the first regulatory sandbox regime in 2016, the approach was quickly transplanted to numerous other countries as a means of promoting innovation, improving competition and enhancing financial inclusion. However, it remains unclear whether the approach can effectively achieve the relevant policy goals and thus justify the differential regulatory treatment. This chapter provides a broad overview of the regulatory sandbox regime and examines its potential benefits and problems. The chapter then provides some empirical evidence by analyzing the sandboxes awarded in the UK and Singapore between 2016 and 2018 with the aim of identifying what the businesses …

Which Early Withdrawal Penalty Attracts The Most Deposits To A Commitment Savings Account?, John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Harris, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Jung Sakong

Faculty Publications

Previous research has shown that some people voluntarily use commitment contracts that restrict their own choice sets. We study how people divide money between two accounts: a liquid account that permits unrestricted withdrawals and a commitment account that is randomly assigned in a between-subject design to have either a 10% earlywithdrawal penalty, or a 20% early withdrawal penalty, or not to allowearlywithdrawals at all (i.e., an infinite penalty).When the liquid account and the commitment account pay the same interest rate, higher early-withdrawal penalties attract more commitment account deposits. This pattern is predicted by the hypothesis that some participants are partially- …

Do Physician Incentives Increase Patient Medication Adherence?, Edward Kong, John Beshears, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Kevin Volpp, George Loewenstein, Jonathan Kolstad, James J. Choi

Faculty Publications

Objective: To test the effectiveness of physician incentives for increasing patient medication adherence in three drug classes: diabetes medication, antihypertensives, and statins.

Data Sources: Pharmacy and medical claims from a large Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan from January 2011 to December 2012.

Study Design: We conducted a randomized experiment (911 primary care practices and 8,935 nonadherent patients) to test the effect of paying physicians for increasing patient medication adherence in three drug classes: diabetes medication, antihypertensives, and statins. We measured patients’ medication adherence for 18 (6) months before (after) the intervention.

Data collection/extraction methods: We obtained data directly from the …

Estimating The Need For Additional Bankruptcy Judges In Light Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Benjamin Iverson, Jared A. Ellias, Mark Roe

Faculty Publications

In this Article, we present the first effort to use an empirical approach to bolster the capacity of the bankruptcy system during a national crisis—here, the COVID-19 crisis. We provide two analyses, one using data from May 2020, very early on in the crisis, and another using data from September 2020, closer to the publication of this Article. Our analysis is based on an empirical observation: Historically, an increase in the unemployment rate has been a leading indicator of a rise in bankruptcy filings. If this historical trend continues to hold, the May 2020 unemployment rate of 13.3% would have …

A Pedagogical Model For Teaching Data Analytics In An Introductory Information Systems Python Course, Heber C. Brau, James C. Brau, Mark Keith

Faculty Publications

In this paper we answer the call of Sheppard (2012) and Brunner & Kim (2016) and present a model for teaching data analytics in an introductory information systems class using the Python programming language. The pedagogy follows an active-learning strategy in which students are assumed to have no statistical or Python programming training prior to class. The learning outcomes include: 1) Data: write code to import and manipulate data; 2) Visualization: write code to generate useful and theoretically sound data visualizations; 3) Feature Engineering: write code to generate, condense, or recombine variables (i.e., "features") of any type (numeric, categorical, ordinal, …

The Narrowness Of Shorting Profitability, Karl B. Diether

Faculty Publications

I examine the persistence in stock level short-selling profitability by using contract level shorting data. I do find that short-sellers are profitable on average using an approach that takes into account the exact timing of the opening and closing of short positions. But I also find that this profitability is driven by the set of stocks for which short-sellers previously had strongly profitable outcomes. I find that if short-selling contracts for a given stock are profitable in the last six months that on average short sellers continue to make profitable trades in that stock in the future. For stocks with …