Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Understanding Volatility: An Analysis Of The Stock Market Return-Variance Correlation, Richard Traub

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper attempts to explain the negative correlation between stock market returns in the United States (measured by the risk premium of the S&P 500 Index) and the respective volatility of these returns. The academic research regarding two primary schools of thought on this issue, the volatility feedback effect and the leverage effect, is furthered as potential explanations for this phenomenon. A tertiary explanation relating to investor behavior is also explored as a viable cause. In order to empirically study this relationship, I examine the risk premium quintiles and the corresponding CBOE Volatility Index levels for the time-series dating from …

Essays On Networks And Corporate Finance, Tatiana Salikhova

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In my dissertation I explore how personal networks affect firms’ financial decisions. In the first essay, I study how social connections among divisional managers affect the capital allocation to divisions in diversified conglomerates. In contrast to the previous studies, I focus on the horizontal connections or connections formed among managers of the same level of corporate hierarchy. I show that connections among divisional managers lead to higher sensitivity of segment capital spending to segment’s growth opportunities, higher firm-level allocation efficiency and higher firm value. Additionally, firms tend to strategically assign better-connected managers to these segments, and connections help to reduce …

Surecash: Promoting Financial Inclusion In Bangladesh, Aurobindo Ghosh, Lipika Bhattacharya

Asian Management Insights

The street scene of honking cycle rickshaws, jaywalking pedestrians and precariously tilting buses in crowded Dhaka was an easy distraction. It was December 2017 when Matteo Chiampo, an advisor to the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP),1 was writing an advisory report on the future growth strategy for SureCash, a mobile financial services (MFS) company in Bangladesh. Brainstorming for questions, and not answers, was something he had not tried before. Nevertheless, Chiampo tried to focus on the questions he had on his mind—questions that he believed would give novel and transformative insights on the way forward.

The Impact Of Social Media On Reputational Risk, Samantha Claire Hamilton

Senior Honors Projects

In the era of social media, reputation is a crucial feature of business activity and can help companies attract customers and reach the economies of scale and scope that justify their investment. Reputational risk is a challenging topic. This is partly because it involves temporal perception and stock market frenzy like we saw with the first bubble, Tulipmania, and the Dotcom Bubble. These potential threats have strengthened due

to social media platforms playing a main role in these “panic-in, panic out” investing behaviors. As we see from many company crises, this reputational value can grow and then disappear in moments. …

The Investment Potential Of Modern Hip Hop Artists, Kyle Garuccio

Renée Crown University Honors Thesis Projects - All

Popular modern hip-hop artists are often seen flaunting custom jewelry, pricey cars, expensive personal collections, and other highly-depreciative luxury items. The influence of hip hop culture on the spending habits of its members is responsible for these traditional portrayals. Members of the hip hop community feel the need to mold to the norms established by its history and momentous idols. If those who identify themselves as members of the hip hop community invested their money in the financial markets and instruments, they may have the opportunity to grow their income at a much larger rate. I propose possible market investment …

Is Bitcoin Reminiscent Of Past Bubbles?, Jessica L. Leath

Honors Theses

Bitcoin, an open-source decentralized peer-to-peer payment system, has made an unprecedented rise to notoriety in the last decade. In 2018, Bitcoin reported its worst year in history with depreciation of more than 70% from its year opening price. Consequently, the narrative of a bubble that surrounded Bitcoin was amplified by this news. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the presence of a bubble within Bitcoin by comparing its price volatility and the psychological factors that influence its price formation to that of two historic bubbles, the Dotcom Bubble and the Tulip Mania.

Essays In Corporate Finance, Bina Sharma

Theses and Dissertations

In this dissertation, I explore the effects of exogenous shocks on firms' and managers' behaviors. The first essay examines the effect of shareholder-initiated litigation risk on opportunistic insider trading by exploiting US states' staggered adoption of Universal Demand (UD) laws, which weakened shareholders' ability to file derivative lawsuits against corporate insiders. I find that UD laws lead to significantly more profitable insider trades, specifically insider sales. After the adoption of UD laws, insider sales on average avoid an additional loss of about 2 percent ($24,000) per month in buy-and-hold abnormal returns. The benefit of UD laws is greater for insiders …

An Analysis Of The Business Structures And Performance Of Traditional Vs. "Freemium" Applications, Daztar Pagdiwala

Honors Scholar Theses

This thesis will examine the rationale and financial success of “freemium” applications versus traditional applications. I define what the “freemium” model is, and how it compares to the traditional (premium) and “free trial” models. In addition, I discuss the value proposition of the business structure, and how it is fully dependent on the consumer’s ability to perceive an increase in value through the purchase of additional features. I also analyze the major positive and negative aspects of the “freemium structure.

Overall trends that I note in the paper include a general shift towards “freemium” and “subscription” based products; within the …

Three Essays On Information Diffusion And Market Friction, Li Guo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

How markets impound information into asset prices is one of the most important concerns of financial economics. Due to behavioural bias and transaction friction, information could be mispriced in the real world, thus driving market anomalies and return predictability of behavioural factors. My dissertation contributes to the literature by investigating how information can be quantified, acquired, disseminated and priced in the financial market with the existence of market frictions.

In Chapter 2, we propose an efficient method based on machine learning and textual analysis to quantify cross industry news and shed light on how news travels across different industries. The …

Three Essays On Venture Capital Backed Firms And Peer To Peer Lending, Abdelhamid Riani

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation includes three separate essays related to venture capital backed firms and peer to peer lending. The first essay, presented in Chapter II, studies underpricing and buy and hold abnormal returns in venture capital backed firms.

In this chapter, I conduct an analysis of underpricing and buy-and-hold abnormal returns in venture capitals' portfolio of firms using a sample of 991 venture backed IPOs between 1985 and 2018. I show that the more experienced the venture capital is, the larger the underpricing and the lower the buy-and-hold returns of the whole portfolio. Venture capital investors underprice significantly their portfolio of …

Essays On Anomalies In Asset Pricing, Xinrui Duan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In Chapter 1, we examine whether various anomalies can be driven by two common behavioral forces, namely, "subjective" sentiment (representing investors' subjective biased beliefs) and "objective" limited attention (representing investors' objective cognitive constraints). While sentiment explains well many anomalies that are more speculative on the short-leg, it fails to explain anomalies that are equally speculative on the long and short-leg, including momentum and post-earnings announcement drift. Market-wide attention shifts, proxied by number of news averaged across stocks, significantly attenuates underreaction-driven anomalies, beyond the effect of sentiment. Our findings suggest that increase in market-wide attention can temporarily reduce the cost of …

Essays In Asset Pricing, Wanshan Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

My dissertation centers on two areas related to market microstructure. First, the role of retail traders, or the information they have, for financial markets. I use retail short selling as an example to narrow down the topic and study their trading patterns and trading strategies. Second, the role of passive indexers such as index funds or ETFs, for financial markets. I am trying to analyze the channels through which the nominally uninformed traders have influences on the return and market quality of the underlying stocks.

In Chapter 2, I study retail short sellers. It is interesting to paint retail short …

Machine Learning And Empirical Asset Pricing, Yingnan Yi

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

In this paper, I conduct a comprehensive study of using machine learning tools to forecast the U.S. stock returns. I use three sets of predictors: the past history summarized by 120 lagged returns, the technical indicators measured by 120 moving average trading signals, and the 79 firm fundamentals, which helps to understand the weak-form market efficiency, algorithm trading and fundamental analysis. I find each set independently has strong predictive power, and buying the top 20% stocks with the greatest predicted returns and shorting bottom 20% with the lowest earns economically significant profits, and the profitability is robust to a number …

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

The Stock Return Changes Of Chinese Adr Before And After Trump's Election And Imposed Tariff On Chinese Goods, Suyao Liu

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This study examines the stock return changes of Chinese ADR company likely be affected by Trump’s election on November 9, 2016, the signing of tariff Chinese goods bill on March 8, 2018, and the tariff bill takes into act on March 23, 2018. The results show that, relative to the entire market, the stock prices of Chinese ADR companies underperform. Our analysis provides evidence that it’s hard to find that these three events would affect a particular industry of Chinese ADR the most.

Predictability Of Mid-To-Long Term Price Direction Following Price Shocks Unassociated With Regularly Scheduled Earnings Calls In Domestic Equity Markets, Noah Braden

Undergraduate Theses

This thesis examines the question of whether a company’s stock classification as either growth or value, as indicated by its trailing twelve-month price-to-equity (TTM P/E) ratio or price-to-tangible-book value (TTM PTBV) ratio, has an impact on the price retracement toward, or continued divergence from the previous fair market value of the stock subsequent to a market-moving event uncorrelated with a 10-K or 10-Q filing by the company of interest. The categorization of growth versus value is non-binary and dependent on each firm’s TTM P/E ratio and TTM PTBV ratio (in a secondary model), with a higher ratio in both cases …

Financial Literacy: The Argument For Required Coursework Regarding Personal Finance In Schools, Maclain Canfield

Honors Theses

Financial literacy is one of the most important skills for adults to possess, and therefore personal finance should be required education. Being financially literate provides individuals with the knowledge needed to make financially prudent decisions that substantially impact their lives (Kenton, 2019; Lusardi, 2008; Zucchi, 2018). However, only fifty-seven percent of adults in the United States are financially literate (Klapper, Lusardi, & Oudheusden, 2015).

Although financial literacy provides lifelong benefits, basic personal finance is seldom taught in schools (Council for Economic Education, 2018; NPR, 2019). Research shows that students are more financially literate where financial education in high school is …

What Happened To Venezuela?, Harris Jones

Honors Theses

By studying academic research, I investigate the root causes of the crisis in Venezuela today. The research studied lays out the historical factors that have contributed to the crisis. Venezuelan politics and global politics play a role in the crisis in addition to economic factors. The situation in Venezuela has been developing for years but has gained more attention recently as the economic crisis has caused a humanitarian and political crisis as well. I chose this topic because I am interested in how colossal crises occur and I am interested in Spanish speaking countries because it is my minor. Specifically, …

The Cfa Research Challenge, Kevin Grube

Honors Student Research

This paper explores the CFA Research Challenge, a financial analysis competition, and what it entails. The paper expands on a wide range of topics regarding the challenge, motivations of its competitors, class influences towards the challenge, and tips and tricks for future competitors. The paper includes my team's finalized research paper and includes our graded rubrics. It also discusses my opinions on the CFA as an organization, detailing my distaste with the professionalism I observed over the challenge.

Public Capital Budgeting In Germany, Natalia Ermasova

Research Days

According to the WEF Global Competitiveness Report (2017), Germany’s infrastructure ranked eighth in the world. The public investment in Germany has increased significantly in last thirty years. The government gross fixed capital formation increased by 37% in 2018 in comparison to 1990 (German Finance Ministry, 2018). The government gross fixed capital formation in relation to nominal GDP (the investment-to-GDP ratio) was 2.6% in 2018, compared with 1.7% in 2001.These outstanding public infrastructure system and investment profiles are likely a consequences of the country’s healthy public finances, robust institutional framework, structural reforms, and continuous public investments to boost competitiveness.

The goal …

Exploiting Wall Street: An Algorithmic Approach To Investing, Sterling Lemon

Student Research Symposium

Technology has advanced dramatically over the years, yet the old investment strategy of "buy and hold" has remained prevalent. While this strategy performed well historically, it serves as a stark contrast to modern investing which, by utilizing machine learning and advanced data analytics, is generating unprecedented returns This research project will demonstrate the strength behind algorithmic investing and how the investment strategy of "buy and hold" will become a thing of the past.

Demonetization In India: An Analysis Of An Instant Decision, Jaymin Patel

Honors College Theses

This analytical study examines the impact of demonetizing the Rs. 500 and the Rs. 1000 legal tender in India, which occurred on November 8^th, 2016. The study analyzes impacts on the GDP of India, employment rate, stock market volatility, agriculture sector, and the overall economy. The study shows that the demonetization movement had more short-term impacts than long-term and it generally failed to achieve its main objective.

Essays On Time Series And Machine Learning Techniques For Risk Management, Michael Kotarinos

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Capital Asset Pricing Model combined with the Sharpe ratio is a standard method for choosing assets for selection in a portfolio. However, this method has many structural issues and was designed for a time when high dimensional computing was in its infancy. An alternative to these methods using a mix of Multi-Level Time Series Clustering, the MACBETH algorithm and traditional time series techniques was constructed that minimized data loss and allow for customized portfolio construction for investors with different risk profiles and specialized investment needs. It was shown that these methods are adaptable to cloud computing environments and allow …

Essays On Migration Flows And Finance, Suin Lee

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the first essay, I examine stock market implications of state-to-state migration flows that are known to provide the basis for social and business networks. I observe sizeable and robust excess return comovement between migration-flow receiving and sending states at both the individual stock and the state portfolio levels. Although I find that migration flows are associated with firms’ business activities, this comovement is not fully explained by economic fundamentals and decreases substantially when firms relocate to other states. In line with the view that migration networks form the basis for a common investor base for receiving and sending states …

Research Project In Finance: Kinder Morgan Inc. (Kmi), Christopher Holmes

Student Scholarship

KMI is a buy because the market is currently mispricing the company due to fears over their CO2 segment and their debt level.

First, it is currently being rumored that management is considering the sale of its CO2 business. This would be a positive because it would take away the concerns regarding CO2 and could help lead to a higher multiple. Additionally, the company’s backlog would become much more concentrated in higher growth areas if this segment is sold.

Second, the debt picture is misunderstood. The company currently has an investment grade rating from the rating agencies and currently has …

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Spring 2019, Scott Deacle, Isaac Abrams, Paul Cottam, Elvi Sopiqoti, Wilbert Diaz, Johnny Myers

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this Issue:

What's New?

Brief History of Ursinus

What Our Newest Students are Saying

What are "They" Saying?

Vanguard Field Trip

2019 Fund Performance

Looking Forward

Fundraising & Gallery

Clarity For Due Diligence In 401(K) Qualified Retirement Plans, Erin O'Reilly

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

My focus for this project is to educate myself and my peers on the process of analyzing a 401(k) plan, specifically the due diligence that should be performed when analyzing a retirement plan. Specific aspects of this project will involve: (1) explaining the different roles needed to administer a 401(k) plan; (2) discussing an advisor's role in a 401(k) plan; (3) analyzing fiduciary duty levels; (4) reviewing the appropriate types of investments to include in a 401(k) plan; (5) providing suggestions for financial wellness programs; and (6) discerning the appropriate level of fees for each service. I seek to provide …

Effects Of Terrorism On The U.S. Stock Market: Evidence From High Frequency Data, Kyla Scanlon

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This paper investigates the effects that terrorist attacks and mass shootings had on the U.S. stock market, using high frequency intraday data to identify stock price and variability reactions in the hours after the attack. The impact that terrorist attacks had on price level variability was examined using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The market reaction to domestic versus foreign attacks was examined to measure a potential for contagion across financial markets. The potential for flight-to-safety/quality and capital reallocation in response to terrorist attacks were measured using ordinary least squares (OLS) model, measuring the respective betas of small …

Reputation Concerns Under At-Will Employment, Jian Sun, Dong Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study a continuous-time model of long-run employment relationship with fixed wage and at-will firing; that is, termination of the relationship is non-contractible. Depending on his type, the worker either always works hard, or can freely choose his effort level. The firm does not know the worker’s type and the monitoring is imperfect. We show that, in the unique Markov equilibrium, as the worker’s reputation worsens, his job becomes less secure and the strategic worker works harder. We further demonstrate that the relationship between average productivity and job insecurity is U shaped, which is consistent with typical findings in the …

Success Through Scripture: Redefining Success From A Biblical Perspective, Bobbi Jo Dallas

Senior Honors Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to reveal how an intimate relationship with God can bring internal and external success. The research will demonstrate that success from a relativistic society does not always produce overall success. Through a secular approach, success is defined differently by each human being and formed by his or her own perception of the subject. However, through a biblical worldview approach, one can achieve internal and external success brought about by a relationship with God. First, the research will recognize a few of the many man-made theories of success and analyze the different components that are …