Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Cross-Sectional Analysis Of Index And Commodity Markets Price Discovery., Stoyu Ivanov

Faculty Publications

This study examines the determinants of relative price discovery between the futures and cash prices in 30 index and commodity markets based on the Gonzalo and Granger (1995) permanent-transitory decomposition methodology. Twenty-eight indexes and commodities have proportional futures market information shares greater than 60%. Two commodities are the only exception: Feeders Cattle and Wheat-Minneapolis have price discovery occurring predominantly in the cash markets with information shares of their futures contracts of 33% and 40%, respectively. The research documents a significant cross-sectional variability of the information shares across the 30 indexes and commodities and finds that the information shares of the …

The Geographic Profiling Of Poverty And Accessibility: The Case Of Two Provinces In The Philippines, Alexis M. Fillone, Nicanor Roxas Jr., Cristela G. Dakila

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This study attempts to relate the poverty problem in the Philippines using spatial accessibility measures. Spatial accessibility is the ease with which one could avail of the social services and economic opportunities laid in geographic space to the individual. Using the provinces of Eastern Samar and Siquijor Island as case studies, a Social Composite Index (SCI) value for the household was derived from the 13+1 CBMS core indicators of poverty, which represents the unmet needs of the household and which was then aggregated at the barangay level. The spatial accessibility values were estimated by measuring how each barangay, specifically households, …

Credit Default Swaps Regulation And The Use Of Collateralized Mortgage Obligations In U.S. Financial Institutions, Jon Patraic Neill

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

The fast and easy global movement of capital throughout the financial system, from lenders to borrowers and through intermediaries and financial market participants, has been recognized as a source of instability associated with illiquidity and financial crises. The purpose of this research was to better understand how regulation either enables or constrains capital movement. The theoretical framework comprised 2 contrasting public policymaking models, Arrow's rational-comprehensive model and Kingdon's garbage can model, which were used to derive opposing hypotheses. The research question addressed the nature of the relationship between Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) regulations and the flow of capital into Collateralized …

Relative Pricing Of Publicly Traded U.S. Electric Utility Companies, Nicholas Stephen Jewczyn

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

In the financial turmoil of 2008, U.S. firms reported debt-ratios that differed from the debt-ratios calculated from balance sheets. The problem is that investors bought common stock expecting initial investment return and lost money when companies delisted. The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine sample securities pricing with the application of synthetic assets and debt accrued. Addressed in the research questions was whether those securities were (a) underpriced compared with return-on-assets (ROA), (b) overpriced compared with ROA, (c) a debt-ratio higher than 60% and also overpriced, (d) underpriced with a synthetic asset added, or (e) related by relative …

Institutional Investors And Corporate Financial Policies, Ricky William Scott

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Institutional investors influence corporate payout and research and development (R&D) investment policies. Higher payouts are encouraged by institutional investors, especially in firms with high free cash flow and poor investment opportunities. They also positively influence stock repurchases, particularly in firms with high information asymmetry. The substitution of stock repurchases for dividends as a percentage of total payout is encouraged by institutional investors. Institutional owners persuade firm management to increase research and development (R&D) investment overall and specifically in firms with higher stock liquidity, higher information asymmetry, lower free cash flow, and better investment opportunities. Institutional investors decrease agency costs in …

Delayed-Bang Approach Towards More Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Abhishek S. Pathak

Finance Faculty Publications

This article describes the Delayed Bang Approach for determining the value of risk management alternatives in critical infrastructure security. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management (2) the importance of time valuation in evaluating competing loss prevention and loss reduction alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) hypothetical examples of the Delayed-Bang Approach and significance towards more sustainable risk management.

Evaluating Economic Relationships Of Stapled And Traditional Australian Reits, Jaime Yong, David Allen, Lee Lim

Research outputs 2011

The number of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITs) trading as stapled securities has grown significantly in the past ten years. Though this type of trust structure improves the income growth to investors, stapled AREITs are riskier relative to traditional AREITs that act primarily as holding companies of property assets. Academic literature on REIT characteristics has found that these assets have become less integrated with bonds and more with stocks. An increasingly mature AREIT market implies that prices of these assets have become more integrated with values of the underlying direct property investments. This study employs quarterly prices over 30 …

Modeling Time-Varying Currency Betas: New Evidence From The Selected Markets, P. Jayasinghe, A. Tsui, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

In the past decade, studies of exchange rate exposure have mainly focused on three approaches. The first approach uses conventional methods such as sub-sampling, dummy variables, and overlapping moving window regression to capture exchange rate exposure. The second approach uses pre-specified determinants of exposure coefficients to analyze the time-variation of exchange rate exposure. For example, Allayannis (1997) suggests that currency beta is determined by export and import shares, and finds support for time-variation of exposure in some 4-digit level SIC industries. The third approach employs time-varying second moments to derive time-varying exchange rate exposure (see, for instance, Hunter, 2005; Lim, …

Modeling The Conditional Heteroscedasticity And Leverage Effect In The Chinese Stock Markets, Zhihui Yin, Albert Tsui, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

The Chinese stock market has experienced an astonishing growth and unprecedented development since its inception in the early 1990s, emerged to be the world's second-largest by market value by the end of 2009. The Chinese stock market is also one of the most volatile markets, which has been called by many observers a “casino”. In the recent years there are several far-reaching events that have reshaped the Chinese stock markets. The most notable events include the “dot-com bubble” in 2000, China’s non-tradable shares reform in 2005 and the global financial crisis in 2008. It is noted that the “dot-com bubble” …

Peas In A Pod: Canadian And Australian Banks Before And During A Global Financial Crisis, David Allen, Ray Boffey, Robert Powell

Research outputs 2011

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the Canadian and Australian banking systems have been singled out by some commentators as having performed better than many other banking systems, particularly those in Europe, America and the United Kingdom. Banks in both Canada and Australia, for instance, have continued to report enviable earnings, sound capital levels, and high credit ratings both before and during the GFC. The G-20 and the European Union have tried to identify the features of the Canadian and Australian financial systems which have underpinned this success in order to use them in shaping a revised …

Modeling Exchange Rate Exposure In The Japanese Industrial Sectors, P. Jayasinghe, A Tsui, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

In recent years the volatility of exchange rate exposure and its associated risk have become a hot issue in international financial management. It is often assumed that a firm’s future operating cash flows is proxied by its market value, and the exposure coe fficient would be able to ef ficiently measure the impact of exchange rate changes on a firm’s return and its se nsitivity to the changes. Recen tly, some studies begin to investigate whether exchange rate exposure is asymmetric between currency appreciations and depreciations. By far most existing studies on exchange rate exposure assume that the variances of …

Innovative Transition Matrix Techniques For Measuring Extreme Risk: An Australian And U.S. Comparison, David Allen, Akhmad Kramadibrata, Robert Powell, Abhay Singh

Research outputs 2011

Comparing Australia and the U.S. both prior to and during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), using a dataset which includes more than six hundred companies, this paper modifies traditional transition matrix credit risk modelling to address two important issues. Firstly, extreme credit risk can have a devastating impact on financial institutions, economies and markets as highlighted by the GFC. It is therefore essential that extreme credit risk is accurately measured and understood. Transition matrix methodology, which measur es the probability of a borrower transitioning from one credit rating to another, is traditionally used to m easure Value at Risk (VaR), …

Modeling The Fractional Integration In Volatility Between The Greater China Financial Markets, K. Ho, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

The dynamics of the interrelationships among the financial markets in the Greater China area including Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, is a noteworthy issue of economic research. This is not only because the financial markets in this region have grown rapidly over the past decade, but also because of the arguably asymmetric integration of the emerging Chinese economy with advanced countries in the real side of the economy and tight control over financial market. Since its establishment in the early 1990s, the Mainland Chinese stock market has expanded rapidly in terms of capitalization, turnover, and the new listings. Even …

Modelling Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Australia, China And India, Shrabani Saha, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has attracted a ttention of many researchers in the last three decades due to the adoption of flexible exchange rate system by many countries. The objectives of this study are to make a comparative study by exploring the literature relating pass-through for import prices and domestic prices in Australia, China and India. In particular, we test whether the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is complete, estimate the pass-through to CPI to investigate whether there is any association between the pass-through and the average inflation rate across these countries. Using a structural VAR model we test …

Assessing The Dynamic Relationship Between Small And Large Cap Stock Prices, K. Ho, B. Ernst, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

The historical long-run return on small capitalization stocks has unquestionably outperformed large capitalization stocks since 1926. The phenomenon of small capitalization stocks having higher risk- adjusted returns compared with large capitalization stocks is an equity market anomaly first discovered in 1981. Since then, many academics and investors have strongly argued that “size is dead”. This paper argues that far from being dead, the phenomenon of size effect appears alive and well and it could be exploited effectively over long-term investment horizons. To analyze this phenomenon, we focus specifically on the dynamics of small cap and large cap prices. We test …

Modeling The Conditional Volatility Asymmetry Of Business Cycles In Four Oecd Countries: A Multivariate Garch Approach, K Ho, A Tsui, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

There are many studies on the business cycle indicators in the past decades, but mostly focusing on the asymmetric and non-linear features of business cycles incorporated into the conditional mean equation rather than the conditional variance formulation. Recently, the hypothesis of volatility asymmetry in business cycle indicators has been re-examined by, for instance, Ho and Tsui (2003 and 2004) using univariate asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH) and EGARCH models. However, the main drawback of univariate GARCH analysis is that it fails to capture the co-movement of macroeconomic variables. These co-movement relationships are important issues emphasised by the business cycle researchers, yet …

Are Credit Ratings A Good Measure Of Capital Adequacy?, David Allen, Akhmad Kramadibrata, Robert Powell, Abhay Singh

Research outputs 2011

Focus on capital adequacy intensified since the onset of the Global Financ ial Crisis (GFC), with many US and other global banks experiencing capital shortages over this time. The Basel standardised approach uses credit ratings as a determinant for corporate capital adequacy requirements. A problem with credit ratings is that they were designed to be a measure of relative, as opposed to absolute credit risk, and do not ratchet up or down with changes in economic circumstances. This paper examines how credit risk as indicated by credit ratings (and thei r associated capital requirement) changed pre and post Global Financial …

Credit Risk Measurement Methodologies, David Allen, Robert Powell

Research outputs 2011

The significant problems experienced by banks during the Global Financial Crisis have highlighted the critical importance of measuring and providing for credit risk. This paper will examine four popular methods used in the measurement of credit risk and provide an analysis of the relative shortcomings and advantages of each method. The study includes external ratings approaches, financial statement analysis models, the Merton / KMV structural model, and the transition based models of CreditMetrics and CreditPortfolioView. Each model assesses different cr iteria, and an understanding of the merits and disadvantages of the various models can assist banks and other credit modellers …

Modeling Information Linkages In The Stock And Options Markets, K Ho, L Zheng, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2011

When markets are assumed to be complete, option trading should not contain new information for market participants, as options derive their prices from the underlying stocks. However, if markets are incomplete, then this unidirectional relationship may not be true, because informed traders may prefer to trade options instead of the underlying stocks for several reasons: one, option trading involves lower transaction costs and higher financial leverage; and two, investors who have private information about stock price volatility can only make their bet on volatility in the option market. Compared with the research on the relationship between options trading activity and …

Alexander Hamilton And Asian Capitalism, Ian Austin

Research outputs 2011

Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804), extensive essayist (including The Federalist), long-serving aide de camp to George Washington (1732-1799), the first Secretary to the Treasury (1789-1795), and author of a series of Reports to Congress, takes his rightful place as one of theUnited States ofAmerica’s founding fathers. Like all members of Washington administrations (1789-1797), Hamilton on taking office was acutely aware of the highly precarious nature of the new nation’s future.What was to replace British rule was far fromcertain, and at the time the construction of a functioning republic beyond a small geographical area was considered by political orthodoxy to be dubious. In …

Using Implementation Intentions Prompts To Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates, Katherine L. Milkman, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian

Faculty Publications

We evaluate the results of a field experiment designed to measure the effect of prompts to form implementation intentions on realized behavioral outcomes. The outcome of interest is influenza vaccination receipt at free on-site clinics offered by a large firm to its employees. All employees eligible for study participation received reminder mailings that listed the times and locations of the relevant vaccination clinics. Mailings to employees randomly assigned to the treatment conditions additionally included a prompt to write down either (1) the date the employee planned to be vaccinated or (2) the date and time the employee planned to be …

Behavioral Economics Perspectives On Public Sector Pension Plans, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian

Faculty Publications

We describe the pension plan features of the states and the largest cities and counties in the U.S. Unlike in the private sector, defined benefit (DB) pensions are still the norm in the public sector. However, a few jurisdictions have shifted towards defined contribution (DC) plans as their primary savings plan, and fiscal pressures are likely to generate more movement in this direction. Holding fixed a public employee‘s work and salary history, we show that DB retirement income replacement ratios vary greatly across jurisdictions. This creates large variation in workers‘ need to save for retirement in other accounts. There is …

Consumer Financial Protection, John Y. Campbell, Howell E. Jackson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Peter Tufano

Faculty Publications

Over the past 65 years, fi nancial innovation has presented U.S. households with an ever-widening set of fifi nancial options from an expanding set of fifi rms and accompanied by a sometimes dizzying amount of information. At the same time, consumer fifi nance has increasingly become a “do-it-yourself ” activity (Ryan, Trumbull, and Tufano, 2010). Households are expected to make decisions about pension plan contributions and payouts, to choose from a wide array of credit instruments to fund everything from home purchase to short-term cash needs, and more generally to assume a greater level of responsibility for their fifi nancial …

Why Did U.S. Banks Invest In Highly-Rated Securitization Tranches?, Isil Erel, Taylor Nadauld, René M. Stulz

Faculty Publications

We estimate holdings of highly-rated tranches of mortgage securitizations of American deposit-taking banks ahead of the credit crisis and evaluate hypotheses that have been advanced to explain these holdings. We find that holdings of highly-rated tranches were economically trivial for the typical bank, but banks with greater holdings performed more poorly during the crisis. Though univariate comparisons show that banks with large trading books had greater holdings, the holdings of highly-rated tranches are not higher for banks with large trading books in regressions that control for bank size. The ratio of highly-rated tranches holdings to assets increases with bank assets, …

Earnings Management And The Effect On Long-Run Performance For Firms With Seasoned Equity Offerings, Danielle Enderson

Honors Program Theses

Managers of publicly traded firms use various methods to signal to the market their beliefs about their company's current performance and future prospects. These methods include, among others, the declaration of dividends to common stockholders, a firm's repurchase of its shares in the market, or the issuance of seasoned equity. Each of these actions can be used to send a specific signal to the market based on management's beliefs regarding the firm's financial outlook.

This study focuses on a firm's issuance of seasoned equity. Seasoned equity offerings, or SEOs, are the issuance of additional shares of stock by a firm …

Etf Volatility Around The New York Stock Exchange Close., Stoyu Ivanov

Faculty Publications

In this study we extend the work of Chang, Jain and Locke (1995) who study the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index futures contract volatility around NYSE close by examining three ETFs, the Spider, the Diamonds and the Cubes price volatilities after market close. Similar to the S&P 500 Index futures contract ETFs continue trading until 16:15, which is 15 minutes after their underlying indexes are reported. This is the first study to the best of our knowledge to examine the volatility of ETFs around the NYSE close. We document that similar to the findings of Chang, Jain and …

An Investigation Into The Use Of Neural Networks For The Prediction Of The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Suchira Chaigusin

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

Stock markets are affected by many interrelated factors such as economics and politics at both national and international levels. Predicting stock indices and determining the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions are complicated tasks. Neural networks are one of the popular approaches used for research on stock market forecast. This study developed neural networks to predict the movement direction of the next trading day of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. The SET has yet to be studied extensively and research focused on the SET will contribute to understanding its unique characteristics and will lead to identifying …

Lessons From The Financial Crisis: Report Of The Asian Financial Regulatory Committee, Jeremy Choo Yong Goh, Sri Adiningsih, Maria S. Gochoco-Bautista

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case Of Soccer, Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the extent to which the stock market's inefficient responses to resolutions of uncertainty depend on investors’ biased ex ante beliefs regarding the probability distribution of future event outcomes or their ex post irrational reactions to these outcomes. We use a sample of publicly traded European soccer clubs and analyze their returns around important matches. Using a novel proxy for investors’ expectations based on contracts traded on betting exchanges (prediction markets), we find that within our sample, investor sentiment is attributable, in part, to a systematic bias in investors’ ex ante expectations. Investors are overly optimistic about their teams’ …

Markowitz Meets Talmud: A Combination Of Sophisticated And Naive Diversification Strategies, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The modern portfolio theory pioneered by Markowitz (1952) is widely used in practice and extensively taught to MBAs. However, the estimated Markowitz portfolio rule and most of its extensions not only underperform the naive 1/N rule (that invests equally across N assets) in simulations, but also lose money on a risk-adjusted basis in many real data sets. In this paper, we propose an optimal combination of the naive 1/N rule with one of the four sophisticated strategies—the Markowitz rule, the Jorion (1986) rule, the MacKinlay and Pástor (2000) rule, and the Kan and Zhou (2007) rule—as a way to improve …