Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the paper “Investment Decisions in the Theory of Finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies”, Magni [Eur. J. Operat. Res. 137 (2002) 206] shows that using the net present value rule for making investment decisions can lead to inconsistencies and antinomies. The author claims that the so-called equivalent-risk tenet of finance, whereby an investor needs to compare an investment opportunity with an asset of equivalent risk, is impossible to implement. In this paper, we show that the main thesis of this paper is incorrect, and that finance theory, when applied correctly, can be used to value investment projects by comparing assets …

On The Observational Equivalence Of Devaluation And Monetary Policy, Russell S. Boyer

CRIF Seminar series

Devaluation has been viewed as being quite different from monetary policy (Caves, Cooper, Ethier, Frankel, Frenkel, Harberger, Johnson, Jones, Kenen, McCallum, Mussa, Salvatore, Tsiang) or even just the opposite of it in terms of its effects on real variables (Berglas, Dornbusch, Mundell). This paper yields to the temptation that Allen and Kenen set out: to follow one’s intuition and come to the clear conclusion that these two policy initiatives are very similar. It does this by specifying the conditions under which the two are identical in the small-country setting with a general degree of management of the exchange rate. The …

Measuring Investor Sentiment In Equity Markets, Arindam Bandopadhyaya, Anne Leah Jones

Financial Services Forum Publications

Recently, investor sentiment has become the focus of many studies on asset pricing. Research has demonstrated that changes in investor sentiment may trigger changes in asset prices, and that investor sentiment may be an important component of the market pricing process. Some authors suggest that shifts in investor sentiment may in some instances better explain short-term movement in asset prices than any other set of fundamental factors. In this paper we develop an Equity Market Sentiment Index from publicly available data, and we then demonstrate how this measure can be used in a stock market setting by studying the price …

Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, …

Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We apply a robust bootstrap to evaluate the performance of a large universe of hedge funds. Our bootstrap estimates indicate that the performance of the top hedge funds cannot be attributed to chance alone. This is true even after adjusting for back fill bias, serial correlation, and structural breaks. Also, we find that hedge fund alpha differences persist over three year horizons. However, an investment strategy designed around this will run into difficulties as the persistence is often confined to small funds that are effectively closed to new inflows. Moreover, Bayesian estimates suggest that standard alphas may be overestimated by …

The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Lim Kian Guan, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.

Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting, Martin D. Evans, Richard K. Lyons

CRIF Seminar series

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap). Over our 3-year forecasting sample, we find that the micro-based model consistently out-performs both the random walk and the macro model. Micro-based forecasts account for almost 16 per cent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes. These results provide a level …

Credit Union Service Organization Products And Services: Implications, Decisions, And Strategies, Michael Burnett Bare

Theses Digitization Project

This project will create strategic tools for the Credit Union and CUSO to use in order to best create a more symbiotic relationship between the two entities.

Tax Complexity And Small Business: A Comparison Of The Perceptions Of Tax Agents In The United States And Australia, Laura R. Ingraham, S. Karlinsky, M. Mckerchar

Faculty Publications

There is ongoing pressure in both the United States and Australia to simplify their respective tax systems, particularly in regard to small business taxpayers. In the case of both regimes, if substantial progress is to be made towards simplification, the areas of greatest need and the necessary reforms will require careful evaluation. The views of tax agents (practitioners) are highly relevant to the implementation of successful reform in that both regimes rely on self-assessment. It was considered that by undertaking a cross-jurisdictional comparison a greater understanding of complexity, from the perspective of tax agents, could be gained and that, the …

Tax Professionals' Perceptions Of Small Business Tax Law Complexity, Laura R. Ingraham, S. S. Karlinsky

Faculty Publications

The author’s report in this article on their study in questionnaire format that tested the perception of 89 small-business tax practitioners regarding the com- plexity of 37 tax provisions. They found overwhelming consistency on the five most complex and five least complex small-business tax provisions with partner- ships, estate and gift valuations, tax-deferred ex- changes, frequency of law changes, and retirement plans topping the hit parade. Progressive tax rates, estimated taxes, Social Security/self-employment taxes, corporate capital gain provisions, and cash ver- sus accrual method were uniformly and consistently perceived as the least complex. These results have tax policy implications. According …

Preparing Your Business For Valuation, Margaret D. Nowicki, Eric E. Lewis, Jeffrey W. Lippitt

New England Journal of Entrepreneurship

There is a tremendous need for the valuation of small businesses. Oftentimes, small businessowners do not have the wherewithal to gather the data and keep it up to date for use in situations that require valuation. Formal valuations are necessary because they provide objective evidence of value, in contrast to value set by markets on which public companies are traded. This article focuses on some factors that impact the valuation of the business and will help small businessowners feel more comfortable talking with financial professionals about how the business might be valued.

Indiana State University Financial Report 2005, Indiana State University

Financial Reports

No abstract provided.

2004-2005 Financial Summary, Morehead State University. Budget & Financial Planning Office.

Morehead State University Financial Summaries Archive

2004-2005 Financial Summary of Morehead State University.

Modeling Clusters Of Extreme Losses, Beatriz Vaz De Melo Mendes, Juliana Sa Freire De Lima

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We model extreme losses from an excess of loss reinsurance contract under the assumption of the existence of a subordinated process generating sequences of large claims. We characterize clusters of extreme losses and aggregate the excess losses within clusters. The number of clusters is modeled using the usual discrete probability models, and the severity of the sum of excesses within clusters is modeled using a flexible extension of the generalized Pareto distribution. We illustrate the methodology using a Danish fire insurance claims data set. Maximum likelihood point estimates and bootstrap confidence intervals are obtained for the parameters and statistical premium. …

To Judge Leviathan: Sovereign Credit Ratings, National Law, And The World Economy, Christopher Bruner, Rawi Abdelal

Scholarly Works

Recent decades have witnessed the remarkable rise of a kind of market authority almost as centralized as the state itself – two credit rating agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. These agencies derive their influence from two sources. The first is the information content of their ratings. The second is both more profound and vastly more problematic: Ratings are incorporated into financial regulations in the United States and around the world. In this article we clarify the role of credit rating agencies in global capital markets, describe the host of problems that arise when their ratings are given the force …

A Primer On Duration, Convexity, And Immunization, Leslaw Gajek, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Hans-Joachim Zwiesler

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The concepts of duration, convexity, and immunization are fundamental tools of asset-liability management. This paper provides a theoretical and practical overview of the concepts, largely missing in the existing literature on the subject, and fills some holes in the body of research on the subject. We not present new research, but rather we provide a new presentation of the underlying theory, which we believe to be of value in the new North American actuarial education system.

Optimal Dividend Strategies: Some Economic Interpretations For The Constant Barrier Case, Maite Marmol, M. Merce Claramunt, Antonio Alegre

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the surplus process of a non-life insurance portfolio with a dividend component represented by a constant dividend barrier strategy. The optimal dividend barrier is known when individual claim amounts follow an exponential distribution. This result for the optimal dividend barrier is used to develop combinations of the levels of the insurer's initial surplus and of the barrier which, under certain economic and financial criteria, can be regarded as optimal.

A New Hybrid Defined Benefit Plan Design, Wayne E. Dydo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Traditional defined benefit plans can be difficult to understand and complex to administer. Hybrid plans (cash balance and pension equity) arose in part to address the former issue, but at a price of greater administrative and litigation risk. I introduce a design for defined benefit pension plans that is easy to communicate to participants, allows for accrual patterns that closely replicate those of the two most common forms of hybrid pension plans, and avoids the controversial nondiscrimination issues that currently trouble sponsors of hybrid plans. The design defines the benefit as a fixed percentage of pay payable over a period …

Risk-Based Regulatory Capital For Insurers: A Case Study, Christian Sutherland-Wong, Michael Sherris

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We study the issues in determining regulatory capital requirements using advanced modeling by assessing and comparing capital requirements under the two alternative approaches. A dynamic financial analysis (DFA) model is used for this case study. These issues are of current international interest as regulators, insurers, and actuaries face the significant issues involved with the introduction of risk-based capital for insurers.

Reputation Pricing: A Model For Valuing Future Life Insurance Policies, Rami Yosef

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The reputation of a life insurer is used to develop a model for determining the value of future life insurance policies. An M / G / 00 process is used to describe the sales and terminations (due to death or maturity) of future policies. The intensity of the arrival process is assumed to depend on the company's reputation. Explicit expressions are derived for the actuarial reserves and expected profits of these future policies.

On The Pricing Of Top And Drop Excess Of Loss Covers, Jean-Francois Walhin, Michel Denuit

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A top and drop cover is a treaty that can be found on the retrocession market. It offers capacity that can be used either to protect a top layer or a working layer. The former is called a "top" and the latter is called a "drop." Using the traditional collective risk model, we demonstrate the use of a multivariate version of Panjer's algorithm to price this cover. We also compare the premium obtained within the exact model with the premiums obtained either with the Frechet bounds or with the wrong assumption of independence.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 12 (2005) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

An Application Of Control Theory To The Individual Aggregate Cost Method, Alexandros A. Zimbidis, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper investigates the individual aggregate cost method (also known as the individual spread-gain method), which is normally applicable in small pension funds or fully contributory schemes, using a control theoretical framework. We construct the difference equations describing the mechanisms of the respective funding method and then calculate the optimal control path of the contribution rate assuming (first) a stochastic and (second) a deterministic pattern for the future investment rates of return. For the first case, the optimal solution is achieved through a linear approximation and using stochastic optimization techniques. It is proved that the contribution rate is (optimally) controlled …

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-Eig Distribution, Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, Adrian Y.W. Wong

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The log-EIG distribution was recently introduced to the probability literature. It has positive support and a moderately long tail, and is closer to the lognormal than to the gamma or Weibull distributions. Our simulations show that data generated from a log-EIG distribution cannot be adequately described by lognormal, gamma, or Weibull distributions. The log-EIG distribution is a worthwhile candidate for modeling insurance claims (loss) data or lifetime data. Examples of fitting the log-EIG to published insurance claims data are given.

A Modern Approach To Modeling Insurances On Two Lives, Maria Bilikova, Graham Luffrum

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The analysis of life insurance contracts on two lives using the traditional deterministic approach has been an important part of actuarial education for the past fifty years or more. Recently there has been a shift from this deterministic approach to one using a more modern stochastic approach involving the future lifetime random variable. In this paper we will look at the problem using multiple-state models. In our view this approach allows a deeper analysis than either the traditional or the random future lifetime ones.

Ultimate Ruin Probability For A Time-Series Risk Model With Dependent Classes Of Insurance Business, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a discrete-time risk model with m (m ~ 2) dependent classes of insurance business. The claim processes of these m classes are assumed to follow a multivariate autoregressive time-series model of order 1. Given this claims model, we explore the probability of ultimate ruin assuming exponentially bounded claims. As an example, we use simulations to study the case where there are two business and the underlying losses are of two types: bivariate exponential and bivariate gamma claim distributions.

Herzberg's Two-Factor Theory Of Motivation Applied To The Motivational Techniques Within Financial Institutions, Shannon Riley

Senior Honors Theses and Projects

Throughout time, many have attempted to develop detailed theories and studies of motivation, satisfaction, and self-awareness. Each of those theories at some point has been applied and tested as to its effects on people’s lives, jobs, and personal goals in life and in the work place. Due to my strong interest in the management fields specifically, I have decided to look into the different styles of motivation that managers and leaders of organizations within the financial industry typically use. After all, it has been said that one of the manager’s most basic tasks is to communicate with and motivate their …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 12, 2005, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Risk-Based Regulatory Capital for Insurers: A Case Study • Christian Sutherland-Wong and Michael Sherris 5

A New Hybrid Defined Benefit Plan Design • Wayne E. Dydo . 47

A Primer on Duration, Convexity, and Immunization • Leslaw Gajek, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, and Hans-Joachim Zwiesler 59

Modeling Clusters of Extreme Losses • Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes and Juliana Sa Freire de Lima 83

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-EIG Distribution • Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, and Adrian Y W Wong 101

A Modern Approach to Modeling Insurances on Two Lives • Maria Bilikova and Graham Luffrum 127

On the …

A System Dynamics Approach To Assessing Public Policy Impact On The Sustainable Growth Rate Of New Ventures, Jeff W. Trailer, Kuau Garsson

New England Journal of Entrepreneurship

The growth of firms is fundamentally based on self-reinforcing feedback loops, one of the most important of which involves cash flow. When profit margin is positive, sales generate cash, which may then be reinvested to finance the operating cash cycle. We analyze simulations of a sustainable growth model of a generic new venture to assess the importance of taxes, and regulatory costs in determining growth. The results suggest that new ventures are particularly vulnerable to public policy effects, since their working capital resource levels are minimal, and they have few options to raise external funds necessary to fuel their initial …

Stock Market Liberalization And Operating Performance At The Firm Level, Todd Mitton

Faculty Publications

I use firm-specific measures of openness to foreign investors to study the impact of stock market liberalization on firm-level operating performance. In a sample of over 1,100 firms from 28 countries, firms with stocks that are open to foreign investors experience higher growth, greater investment, greater profitability, greater efficiency, and lower leverage. Strategies to address potential endogeneity suggest that the observed relationship, at least in part, reflects a causal effect of openness on operating performance.