Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

An Examination Of The Determinants Of Optimal Corporate Credit Hegde: Perspectives From Firms Listed In Djia30 And Nasdaq100, Dina Rofael

Theses and Dissertations

Raising number of corporate defaults could threaten the financial stability, thus modelling credit risk is a key ingredient of financial stability analysis. This paper tries to answer a specific question regarding the drivers of this risk: idiosyncratic risk (industry-specific or firm-specific) and/or systematic risk (macro-economic specific). As a first step, the paper estimates the optimal hedge ratio based on the interest coverage ratio, that acts as a measure for the probability of default. Against this background, the paper applies one of the fundamental-based models of credit risk, known as hybrid model after estimating the proposed indicator variable. The suggested model …

Stock Market Manipulation Detection Using Continuous Wavelet Transform & Machine Learning Classification, Sarah Youssef

Theses and Dissertations

Stock market manipulation detection is important for both investors and regulators. Being able to detect stock manipulation and preventing it gives investors the confidence in the market fairness and integrity. It also helps maintaining liquidity of the stocks and market efficiency. Implementing data mining algorithms in manipulation detection is a relatively recent technique but in the past few years there has been an increasing interest in it's applications in this domain. The benefit of monitoring manipulative trade behavior is that it can be implemented on live feed of stock data, which saves a lot of time in detecting stock price …

An Intelligent Market Cycle Detection System, Michael Azer

Theses and Dissertations

The detection of stock market cycles has attracted the attention of finance scholars and market practitioners. Accurately identifying the direction of a market can significantly increase the returns of investors. Despite this importance, conventional methodologies in the literature have predominantly attempted to evaluate the effect of subsets of factors as precedents to stock market cycles and with little agreement on what constitutes critical factors. There seems to be a lack in the literature for a comprehensive study that examines a multitude of factors at the same time on the S&P500 as the laboratory. Factors are categorized into: political events, economic …

Stock Prediction Using Natural Language Processing Sentiment Analysis On News Headlines During Covid-19, Mina Ibrahim

Theses and Dissertations

Stock prediction based on NLP sentiment analysis is one of the most researched topics due to the revenues they generate for investors. Researchers have used various tools to achieve this, especially fundamental and technical analysis based on historical data helped to achieve this target. Due to the technological advancement and abundance of data, the introduction of machine learning tools accelerated that approach. However, as the public mood affects the stock market, the need for another analysis emerged. Natural language processing sentiment analysis on data from various sources was able to capture public events and moods. NLP is one of the …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Analysis Of Time-Phased Estimates Accuracy, Budget Profile And Under-Spending In Defense Acquisition Programs, Thinh Q. Tran

Theses and Dissertations

As fiscal resources become more limited due to the expanding range of mission needs, accurate cost estimating and budgeting have become more important than ever before. Accurate cost estimates allow the Department of Defense (DoD) to budget with confidence and to effectively communicate its needs to Congress. This research looks to analyze estimates from Air Force’s programs using Milestone B and Initial Operational Capability as the analysis window. Initial analysis of the linear interpolation of the percent budget change indicates that there is underspending in the earlier stages of acquisition programs’ development cycle. Additionally, looking at the cumulative budget change …

The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in Egypt for the 15 years period, starting from 2005 to 2019. The study concentrates on the non-banking financial sector which includes the stock market, the debt market, the mortgage and the insurance sectors. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is utilized to describe the relationship between GDP growth rate, as a proxy for economic growth, and a number of variables from the financial sector. Results of the analysis show that there is a significant relationship and statistical causality between the growth rate and the debt market, represented …

Ai Stock-Screening Methodology For Portfolio Construction, Omar Ahmed Khater

Theses and Dissertations

Selecting profitable stocks is crucial in constructing an all-equity portfolio. Investors need to rely on screening mechanisms to aid investment decision making. New stock selection methods are highly desired, and existing methods are constantly improved. In this research, we investigate the potential of relying on artificial intelligence to guide the stock selection process. The developed model employed genetic algorithms to optimize the selection of screening rules from among a set of widely accepted fundamental indicators. The model robustness and performance are tested using stock market real data over a 14-year period from 2006 till 2019. Based on portfolio quality factors …

Essays On Investments And Real Estate Finance, Shahedur Rahaman Chowdhury

Theses and Dissertations

Essay I examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in explaining the explosive behavior or price exuberance in the US local housing markets. Using monthly observations between November 1997 and December 2016 we employ the double recursive approach from Philips et al., (2015) to identify the emergence of price exuberance in each of the 291 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the sample. Our estimations results show that population and income per capita have a significant positive effect on price exuberance, while unemployment rate and fixed mortgage interest rate have a negative effect. The marginal impacts of these macro fundamentals on housing …

Equity Crowdfunding In The United States: Evolution, Determinants And Performance, Kenny Ozuna

Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, equity crowdfunding has developed into an alternative form of early stage financing for startup firms. The main purpose of this dissertation is to understand the evolution, process and regulation of equity crowdfunding in the United States as well as assess the determinants of a successful campaign and whether this capital market lead to an enduring business.

The first essay examines the evolution, process and regulation surrounding equity crowdfunding. I establish a clear definition of crowdfunding and its restructuring of the music industry to establishing an alternative form of raising capital for nascent firms via equity crowdfunding. I …

The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato

Theses and Dissertations

The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …

Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …

Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford

Theses and Dissertations

Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.

Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimators commonly use the analogy and factor method when developing Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) estimates. Previous studies discussing and developing factors for the production lifecycle phase have been limited in scope and statistical analysis efforts. This research significantly expands the currently available toolkit for Department of Defense cost analysts by updating the current database of historical data and exploring potential relationships through statistical testing. Specifically, 3,462 unique factors were created across nine level II Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements broken down into four categories; commodity type, contract type, contractor type, and service. The production cost factors were created …

The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic

Theses and Dissertations

The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making – from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to …

Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves a study of Air Force science and technology (S&T) programs which includes the creation of standard factors and a program analysis. There has been little prior cost research on S&T programs, which occur very early in the acquisition lifecycle. This leads the cost analyst to utilize estimating techniques such as analogy, factors, and parametric in order to develop budgets with minimal information. The absence of formal S&T cost reporting requirements and common cost elements necessitate a segregated two phased data analysis. The Factor Development phase accomplishes the development and creation of two new standard cost factors along …

Performance Of Islamic Stocks Versus Conventional Stocks During Crisis And Non Crisis Period: Evidence From Mena Region., Eshraq Abou El Enein

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the performance of both Islamic and conventional stocks, and to investigate whether the Islamic filtering criteria acts as a shield of protection for investors during crisis or not, based on a panel sample of 12 countries in the MENA region covering 10 different sectors from 1998-2018. Using panel fixed effect regression. We divided out sample into three periods; 1998-2006 pre-crisis period, 2007-2008 crisis period and 2009-2018 post crisis period. Our main finding is that the filtering criteria has a positive relation with the returns significant for the post crisis period and positive …

Preferences Of Institutional Investors: Evidence From The Arab Region, Mohamed Ahmed Magdy Elsayed

Theses and Dissertations

In this research, we examine the preferences of institutional investors in the Arab region. Institutional investors’ investment decisions are based on various factors or measures that are used in assessing the worthiness of a company for investment. The research uses measures for stock risk and return, financial leverage, profitability, ownership concentration and trading activity, as well as measures for company size, value, sector, and country as predictor variables for the rate of institutional ownership and analyzes the impact of these variables. Using a cross-sectional model, the research gathers evidence from the Arab region’s leading stock markets by market capitalization for …

Environmental Governance For Whom? Examining The Political, Institutional, Fiscal, And Legal Determinants Of State Environmental Agency Budget Policy In The Us, Andrew R. Duggan

Theses and Dissertations

Budgets are a prospective tool of governance, and appropriations are a planning vehicle reflecting: bureaucracies’ values, complex interactions, collective preferences, political influences, and available resources. Research spanning 30 years finds that environmental pollution is a key determinant of environmental budgets in the US, though myriad factors, actors, and subsystems are important to consider. Due to federalism and devolution of responsibilities and authorities, environmental governance falls largely to the states. While the dynamics that shape state environmental budget policy have received scholarly interest, theoretically-driven examinations of environmental appropriations remain limited within the public budgeting and environmental policy literature.

Using panel data …

Essays In Corporate Finance, Bina Sharma

Theses and Dissertations

In this dissertation, I explore the effects of exogenous shocks on firms' and managers' behaviors. The first essay examines the effect of shareholder-initiated litigation risk on opportunistic insider trading by exploiting US states' staggered adoption of Universal Demand (UD) laws, which weakened shareholders' ability to file derivative lawsuits against corporate insiders. I find that UD laws lead to significantly more profitable insider trades, specifically insider sales. After the adoption of UD laws, insider sales on average avoid an additional loss of about 2 percent ($24,000) per month in buy-and-hold abnormal returns. The benefit of UD laws is greater for insiders …

Three Essays On Venture Capital Backed Firms And Peer To Peer Lending, Abdelhamid Riani

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation includes three separate essays related to venture capital backed firms and peer to peer lending. The first essay, presented in Chapter II, studies underpricing and buy and hold abnormal returns in venture capital backed firms.

In this chapter, I conduct an analysis of underpricing and buy-and-hold abnormal returns in venture capitals' portfolio of firms using a sample of 991 venture backed IPOs between 1985 and 2018. I show that the more experienced the venture capital is, the larger the underpricing and the lower the buy-and-hold returns of the whole portfolio. Venture capital investors underprice significantly their portfolio of …

Developing Standard Emd Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Matthew R. Markman

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves the creation of standard factors that more accurately reflect observed outcomes in the development stages of major programs. Traditionally, estimation techniques such as analogy, parametric, engineering build-up, and factors are utilized to develop budgets and serve as the baseline for measuring project progress. This effort accomplishes the development and creation of 443 new standard cost factors that are delineated by five categories: commodity type, contract type, contractor type, development type, and service. The factors are developed for those elements that are "common" in a wide array of projects such as program management, systems engineering, data, training or …

An Analysis Of Estimate Variance In Program Office Estimates, Benjamin J. Bonenfant

Theses and Dissertations

Past research has shown that predicting the cost growth within DoD systems is an important topic. Total program cost growth and predictors of program cost growth have been studied. Kozlak (2017) studied cost growth at four major reviews: Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability. This research attempts to assess cost growth and cost variance at similar points in a program life cycle. In the past the majority of studies have been done identifying programs as either: Acquisition Category (ACAT) I and non-ACAT I programs, or Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) and non-MDAP …

Comparing Estimated To Actual Development Budgets For Air Force Space Programs, Christopher J. Elworth

Theses and Dissertations

The accuracy of budget estimates is vital in ensuring cost efficiency and decreasing the possibility of budget and schedule growth. The goal of this study was to determine when budget estimates increase and what may cause those increases. Percent schedule and linear interpolation was used to analyze the budget changes. Space program budget growth does not increase at a constant rate between Milestone B (MS B) and Initial Operational Capability (IOC). When an exponential curve was fit to the deviations in budget growth, the mean and median R2 for the programs in this study were .83 and .91, respectively. Many …

An Analysis Of Profit Margin In Relation To The Better Buying Power Initiative, Jerry (Trey) L. Baker Iii

Theses and Dissertations

Recent Better Buying Power (BBP) initiatives have sought to better contractually align contractor profit with performance. Profit should incentivize efficiency in cost and schedule and only be awarded when earned. The current research seeks evidence that BBP has been effective in improving performance. The first part of the research examines the trends of profit margin and cost growth both before and after the implementation of the first BBP initiative. BBP recommended the use of incentive type contracts over award fee contracts, where appropriate. This research found an increased use of incentive type contracts and a reduced use of award fee …

A Case Study Of Epa Clauses As They Apply To Fixed Price Contracts, Trevor A. Enos

Theses and Dissertations

Adjusting fixed price contract prices over long periods of performance is vital to protect both the government and contractor from market price fluctuations. This is accomplished via an Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) clause which currently utilize forecasts of producer price indexes (PPI) as a baseline. There is currently a lack of research on if the use of these forecasts as a baseline for calculating EPAs is the best alternative. This research involves determining the validity of using Global Insight (GI) forecasts for the purpose of calculating EPAs in fixed price contracts. Two EPA clauses are examined as a case study …

Adapting Financial Technology Standards To Blockchain Platforms, Gabriel Bello

Theses and Dissertations

Traditional payment systems have standards designed to keep transaction data secure, but blockchain systems are not in scope for such security standards. We compare the Payment Application Data Security Standard’s (PA-DSS) applicability towards transaction-supported blockchain platforms to test the standard’s applicability. By highlighting the differences in implementation on traditional and decentralized transaction platforms, we critique and adapt the standards to fit the decentralized model. In two case studies, we analyze the QTUM and Ethereum blockchain platforms’ industry compliance, as their payment platforms support transactions equivalent to that of applications governed by the PA-DSS. We determine QTUM’s and Ethereum’s capabilities to …

An Analysis Of The Financial Reporting Quality Of Early Adopters Of Accounting Standards Update, Asu 2016-02, Hannah D. Eubanks

Theses and Dissertations

In 2016, the Financial Accounting Standards Board updated the way lease transactions are reported. This paper offers insight into the financial reporting quality of the early adopters of Accounting Standards Update on Leases, ASU 2016-02. Methodology modeled after an event study on clawback provisions conducted by Dehaan, Hodge, and Shelvin (2013) aids in the development of the hypothesis and matched-sample event study using restatements and audit opinions as proxies for financial reporting quality. It is hypothesized that the early adopters of ASU 2016-02 will have better financial reporting quality when compared to a control group. Results do not support the …

Young Adults With Disabilities Financial Skills And Goals: A Mixed Methods Strengths And Needs Assessment, Allison D'Aguilar

Theses and Dissertations

Young adults with disabilities face barriers that affect their financial capability and financial inclusion in the marketplace. Barriers include a lack of autonomy, skills, and opportunities. This mixed method strengths and needs assessment aimed to explain and explore the financial skills and goals of young adults with disabilities. A standardized scale captured young adults with disabilities financial skills, photovoice participatory action research documented their valued financial skills and goals, and semi-structured interviews notated parents financial aspirations and goals for their daughters and sons. The mixed methods analysis suggested young adults with disabilities underlying financial skills fell 25 percent below the …

Essays On Market Linkages In Nafta And Latin American Countries: Studies Of Cointegration And Contagion, John K. Tarwater

Theses and Dissertations

The globalization of securities in recent years has led to an increase in market linkages. These linkages are strong among countries that have entered into bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. I investigate the linkages of stock markets in NAFTA countries by exploring their cointegrating relationship, and I explore market linkages in Latin America by showing evidence of financial contagion between Brazil and her Latin American neighbors.

In the first essay, I employ a vector error correction model to examine the linkages between price stock indexes of NAFTA countries that have been segregated into tiers based on market capitalization. In each …