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Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

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Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management

On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang Jul 2005

On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing empirical studies indicate that inferences on the intertemporal relation between expected return and volatility are highly sensitive to empirical specifications of return dynamics. Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (1993) attempt to resolve this confusing situation by examining several generalizations of the standard GARCH-M model. They conclude a negative risk-return relation solely based on the models that are identified in the first step through a variety of diagnostic tests as relatively “better” models. However, it has not been shown in their study whether the evidence supporting their first-step model selection decision is significant or not. To the extent the strength …

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Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh Mar 2005

Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper discusses the different forms of corporate divestitures, the motives for this corporate activity, and the empirical findings about their economic outcomes. A sample of corporate divestitures is also used to identify the main motivations in the Singapore context. We conclude that divestitures are carried out to achieve operational efficiency and gain incremental profitability and liquidity. Using share price data around the event-dates, we show that announcements of divestitures generally lead to significant increases in the returns of the parent company. The positive abnormal returns are related to the relative size of the divestitures and the computed accounting gains. …

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The Effects Of Decimalization On Return Volatility Components, Serial Correlation And Trading Costs, Yan He, Chunchi Wu Mar 2005

The Effects Of Decimalization On Return Volatility Components, Serial Correlation And Trading Costs, Yan He, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the composition of return volatility, serial correlation, and trading costs before and after decimalization on the New York Stock Exchange. We decompose the variance of price changes into components associated with public news, rounding errors, and market-making frictions. We find that when stocks move from a fractional to a decimal trading system, the variance components due to market-making frictions and rounding errors decline significantly, whereas the component due to public news remains unchanged. The serial correlation of price changes weakens substantially after decimalization. The uninformed component of bid-ask spreads decreases significantly whereas the informed component has no significant …

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The Performance Of Value And Growth Portfolios In East Asia Before The Asian Financial Crisis, David K. Ding, Jia-Leng Chua, Thomas A. Fetherston Mar 2005

The Performance Of Value And Growth Portfolios In East Asia Before The Asian Financial Crisis, David K. Ding, Jia-Leng Chua, Thomas A. Fetherston

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine value and growth portfolios in seven East Asian countries just before the onslaught of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. The value premiums in these countries, except in Indonesia, Taiwan, and Thailand, are found to be mainly positive. After controlling for firm size, risk, liquidity, and growth potential, we find higher returns among value stocks with a small firm size and low growth potential in Hong Kong and Malaysia. In Japan and Singapore, higher returns are found in growth portfolios with a small firm size and low growth potential. Growth stocks in Taiwan with a small firm size, and …

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Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee Mar 2005

Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, organized stock exchanges with daily price limits adopted wider limits as narrower limits were criticized for jeopardizing market efficiency. This study examines the impact of a wide price limit on price discovery processes, using data from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Specifically, examined is the impact of daily price limits on (i) information asymmetry; (ii) arrival rates of informed traders; and (iii) order imbalance. Using both trade-to-trade transaction data and the limit order book, we compile evidence that price limits do not improve information asymmetry, delays the arrival of informed traders, and exacerbates order imbalance. These results …

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On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck Mar 2005

On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the paper “Investment Decisions in the Theory of Finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies”, Magni [Eur. J. Operat. Res. 137 (2002) 206] shows that using the net present value rule for making investment decisions can lead to inconsistencies and antinomies. The author claims that the so-called equivalent-risk tenet of finance, whereby an investor needs to compare an investment opportunity with an asset of equivalent risk, is impossible to implement. In this paper, we show that the main thesis of this paper is incorrect, and that finance theory, when applied correctly, can be used to value investment projects by comparing assets …

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Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka Feb 2005

Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, …

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Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2005

Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We apply a robust bootstrap to evaluate the performance of a large universe of hedge funds. Our bootstrap estimates indicate that the performance of the top hedge funds cannot be attributed to chance alone. This is true even after adjusting for back fill bias, serial correlation, and structural breaks. Also, we find that hedge fund alpha differences persist over three year horizons. However, an investment strategy designed around this will run into difficulties as the persistence is often confined to small funds that are effectively closed to new inflows. Moreover, Bayesian estimates suggest that standard alphas may be overestimated by …

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Smooth Test For Density, Aurobindo Ghosh, Anil K Bera Jan 2005

Smooth Test For Density, Aurobindo Ghosh, Anil K Bera

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recently econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts because at the heart of market risk measurement is the forecast of the probability density functions of various financial variables. In this paper, we propose a formal test for density forecast evaluation based on Neyman's smooth test procedure. Apart from accepting or rejecting the tested model, this approach provides specific sources (such as the location, scale and shape of the distribution) of rejection, thereby helping in deciding possible modifications of the assumed model. Our applications to S&P 500 returns indicate capturing time-varying volatility and non-gaussianity significantly …

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Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong Dec 2004

Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recent studies show that decimal pricing led to significant reductions in the spread and depth on the NYSE. In this paper, we examine how the observed changes in the spread and depth can be attributed to different factors. We show that stocks with higher proportions of one-tick spreads and odd-sixteenth quotes, and more frequent trading before decimalization experienced larger declines in the spread and depth afterwards. We interpret this result as evidence of reduced binding constraints and increased price competition under decimal pricing. We also find that decimal pricing led to nontrivial changes in select stock attributes, and that these …

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Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang Dec 2004

Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S. Nov 2004

International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S.

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, a number of researchers have examined the existence and source of shareholder wealth effects around announcements of international joint ventures. The results of these studies are mixed with no clear answers as to when and why investors attach value to firms using joint ventures to enter overseas markets. In this context, we examine the shareholder wealth effects for 92 international joint venture announcements made by Australian firms during June 1988 - December 1997. We find that, on average, shareholders of firms announcing joint ventures realize an abnormal return of +1.65% over the two-day announcement period of days …

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Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo Nov 2004

Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using CRSP stock and mutual fund data, we find strong evidence for reversals at the style level (e.g., large value, small growth, etc.). There are significant excess and risk-adjusted returns for stocks in styles characterized by the worst past returns and net inflows. We also find evidence for momentum and positive feedback trading at the style level. These value and momentum effects are driven neither by fundamental risk nor by stock-level reversals and momentum. Taken together, the results are consistent with the style-level positive feedback trading model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003).

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The Impact Of Regulation Fair Disclosure On Information Asymmetry And Trading: An Intraday Analysis, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Christine X. Jiang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Robert A. Wood Nov 2004

The Impact Of Regulation Fair Disclosure On Information Asymmetry And Trading: An Intraday Analysis, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Christine X. Jiang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Robert A. Wood

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on liquidity, information asymmetry, and institutional and retail investors trading behavior. Our main findings suggest three conclusions. First, Regulation FD has been effective in improving liquidity and in decreasing the level of information asymmetry. Second, retail trading activity increases dramatically after earnings announcements but there is a significant decline in institutional trading surrounding earnings announcements, particularly in the pre‐announcement period. Last, the decline in information asymmetry around earnings announcements is closely associated with a lower participation rate in the pre‐announcement period and more active trading of retail investors after earnings …

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The Contribution Of A Satellite Market To Price Discovery: Evidence From The Singapore Exchange, Vicentiu Covrig, David K. Ding, Buen Sin Low Oct 2004

The Contribution Of A Satellite Market To Price Discovery: Evidence From The Singapore Exchange, Vicentiu Covrig, David K. Ding, Buen Sin Low

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Singapore Exchange (SGX), a small satellite market, successfully competes with a large home market, the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE), in trading the Nikkei 225 futures index. In this paper, we investigate the contribution of the SGX to price discovery and shed light on the reasons for its continued success. Evidence is provided from information revelation and price discovery of three competing but informationally linked markets of the Nikkei 225 index - domestic spot (Tokyo Stock Exchange), domestic futures (OSE), and foreign futures (SGX), which represents the satellite market. Overall, the futures market contributes 77% to price discovery, with the …

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House Prices And Fundamental Value, John Krainer, Chi Shen Wei Oct 2004

House Prices And Fundamental Value, John Krainer, Chi Shen Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The performance of the residential housing market over the last ten years has been remarkable. According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), house prices have appreciated at an annual rate of 5.4% on average (68.9% over the whole time period). Perhaps even more remarkable is that the performance was strong even when economic activity overall was weak. Average annual appreciation rates have been 7.4% (26% in total) since the collapse of the Nasdaq in 2000 and 7.1% (20% in total) since 2001:Q1, the beginning of the 2001 recession. In contrast, since the start of the 2001 recession, …

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Prospect Theory, Analyst Forecast, And Stock Returns, David K. Ding, Charlie Charoenwong, Raymond Seetoh Oct 2004

Prospect Theory, Analyst Forecast, And Stock Returns, David K. Ding, Charlie Charoenwong, Raymond Seetoh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper documents how prospect theory can be used to explain stock returns and analysts' forecast behavior. Positive earnings surprises are associated with increases in abnormal returns but negative earnings surprises have only a limited negative impact on returns. We find that analysts display asymmetric behavior towards positive and negative earnings growth. Analysts' forecasts are found to be accurate during periods of positive earnings growth, but overly optimistic during periods of negative earnings growth. Our findings have implications for the structuring of investment products, as well as the role of market timing in their introduction.

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Investing In Hedge Funds: Risks, Returns And Performance Measurement, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kok Fai Phoon Oct 2004

Investing In Hedge Funds: Risks, Returns And Performance Measurement, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kok Fai Phoon

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds are collective investment vehicles that are often established with a special legal status that allows their investment managers a free hand to use derivatives, short sell, and exploit leverage to raise returns and cushion risk. We review various issues relating to the investment in hedge funds, which have become popular with high net-worth individuals and institutional investors, as well as discuss their empirical risk and return profiles. The concerns regarding the empirical measurements are highlighted, and meaningful analytical methods are proposed to provide greater risk transparency in performance reporting. We also discuss the development of the hedge fund …

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The Economy And Demand For Finance Ph.D.S: 1989-2001, David K. Ding, Sheng-Syan Chen Sep 2004

The Economy And Demand For Finance Ph.D.S: 1989-2001, David K. Ding, Sheng-Syan Chen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the demand for new finance Ph.D.s from 1989 to 2001. Three categories of schools (Top 20, Top 21-50, and Other Finance Departments) are explored and the differences between private and public institutions are reported. The demand for assistant professors is the greatest and most institutions require an earned Ph.D. While most do not specify the position type, there is some evidence that tenure-tracked ones are on the rise. The most desired areas of expertise are corporate/business finance, investments, and bank management/financial markets and institutions. The total demand is positively related to the Gross Domestic Product and Dow Jones.

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Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitchell Warachka Sep 2004

Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper introduces the concept of statistical arbitrage, a long horizon trading opportunity that generates a riskless profit and is designed to exploit persistent anomalies. Statistical arbitrage circumvents the joint hypothesis dilemma of traditional market efficiency tests because its definition is independent of any equilibrium model and its existence is incompatible with market efficiency. We provide a methodology to test for statistical arbitrage and then empirically investigate whether momentum and value trading strategies constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities. Despite adjusting for transaction costs, the influence of small stocks, margin requirements, liquidity buffers for the marking-to-market of short-sales, and higher borrowing rates, …

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Risk, Return And Risk Aversion: A Behavioral Rendition, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting Sep 2004

Risk, Return And Risk Aversion: A Behavioral Rendition, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Behavioral finance and classical finance based on utility maximization appear to be mutually exclusive schools of thought. Despite the fundamental difference, we show that behavioral finance also has a linear relation between risk and return. This relation is obtained without the assumptions of market equilibrium, rational expectations, a specific utility function and the market portfolio. In the behavioral approach, the pricing error of CAPM is not an error. It is attributable to the higher-order moments of return. Empirical tests suggest that the relative risk aversion coefficient is positive and time-varying. Moreover, it correlates negatively with both volatility and return.

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Information Contents Of Trade And Quote Imbalances, And The Hypothesis Of Reverse Liquidity, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting Sep 2004

Information Contents Of Trade And Quote Imbalances, And The Hypothesis Of Reverse Liquidity, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, we study the information contents of imbalances in trades and quotes emanated from an exchange resembling the one envisioned by Black (1971). We find dollar volume is more informative than number in measuring daily trading and quoting activities. Our measure of quote imbalance permits an investigation on the information asymmetry between market and limit orders. In case illegal insider trading does not occur regularly, we present a hypothesis of reverse liquidity as an alternative interpretation for our empirical findings. It could be that market-order traders charge an implicit liquidity premium for fulfilling the contrarian trading demand of …

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How Do Institutional Investors Trade, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo Aug 2004

How Do Institutional Investors Trade, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a novel and detailed custody trades dataset, this paper analyzes the trading behavior of institutions. Extant studies have examined the effects of past performance on trading by retail investors, day traders, and futures floor traders. Yet very little work has been done on institutions. We find that unlike other investors, institutions take on more risk following an increase in net profit and loss. However, the responses to a gain and loss are highly asymmetric. Institutions aggressively reduce risk in the wake of losses, but only mildly increase risk in the wake of gains. This asymmetry is more pronounced for …

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Analysis Of Limit Order Book And Order Flow, Charlie Charoenwong, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, David K. Ding Jul 2004

Analysis Of Limit Order Book And Order Flow, Charlie Charoenwong, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, David K. Ding

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper extensively employs the order and trade data to analyze the shape of limit order book and the behavior of strategic order submission. The order book of stocks exhibits weakly convex pattern on the bid side due to wide price spreads away from the market. This characteristic of liquidity is particularly strong for the small stocks with large minimum tick size. In addition, the same order type occurs more frequently after the event had occurred than it would unconditionally. This diagonal effect is not fully explained by the order splitting. Moreover, the determinants driving order aggressiveness include bid-ask spread, …

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Equity Style Returns And Institutional Investor Flows, Kenneth A. Froot, Melvyn Teo Mar 2004

Equity Style Returns And Institutional Investor Flows, Kenneth A. Froot, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores institutional investor trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style behavior, we assign equities to deciles in each of five style dimensions: size, value/growth, cyclical/defensive, sector, and country. We find, first, strong evidence that investors organize and trade stocks across style-driven lines. This appears true for groupings both strongly and weakly related to fundamentals (e.g., industry orcountry groupings versus size or value/growth deciles). Second, the positive linkage between flows and returns …

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Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka Mar 2004

Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell). Applying the ACMD model to tick movements, we study the influence of trade frequency, direction and size on price dynamics, volatility and the permanent and transitory price impacts of trade. We also apply the ACMD model to analyze trade-direction data and estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN). We find that trade frequency has a critical role in price …

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Privatizing Telecoms And Residual State Influence On Financial Performance, Burkhard N. Schrage, Paul M. Vaaler Jan 2004

Privatizing Telecoms And Residual State Influence On Financial Performance, Burkhard N. Schrage, Paul M. Vaaler

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We test competing theoretical perspectives explaining likely shareholder returns from material investment decisions announced by privatizing telecommunications firms (telecoms) with varying levels of residual state ownership. A principal-agent perspective suggests that decrease in residual state ownership in privatizing telecoms leads to more positive shareholder returns. Over time, this effect increases. An alternative credible privatization perspective suggests that retention of substantial (though not controlling) residual state ownership leads to more positive shareholder returns, but only in the short run. Over time this ownership effect fades quickly. We examine empirical support for these competing perspectives with an event study analyzing cumulative abnormal …

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Price Rounding And Bid-Ask Spreads Before And After The Decimalization, Yan He, Chunchi Wu Jan 2004

Price Rounding And Bid-Ask Spreads Before And After The Decimalization, Yan He, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate price rounding before and after the pilot decimalization on the NYSE. We find that although rounding exists in transaction, bid, and ask prices in both the pre- and postdecimalization periods, it becomes less salient after the decimalization. The cross-sectional relationship between rounding and trading variables is similar before and after the decimalization, and so is the relationship between execution costs and rounding when trading variables are held constant. More importantly, the quoted and effective bid–ask spreads decrease after decimal trading, and this decrease can be ascribed to the decrease in rounding frequency after controlling for the changes in …

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Prospect Theory And Institutional Investors, Melvyn Teo, Paul G. J. O'Connell Nov 2003

Prospect Theory And Institutional Investors, Melvyn Teo, Paul G. J. O'Connell

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

There is ample evidence that past performance affects the trading decisions of individual investors. This paper looks at this issue using a detailed database of currency trading decisions of institutional investors. Past performance manifestly affects currency risk-taking in this group, but the sign and magnitude of the effect runs counter to much of the existing theory and evidence. There is no evidence whatsoever of disposition effects; rather, the dominant characteristic is aggressive risk reduction in the wake of losses. This effect is more prominent later in the year, and among older and more experienced funds. A modified version of the …

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Incorporating Diversification Into Risk Management, Mitchell Craig Warachka, A. Purnanandam, Y. Zhao, W.T. Ziemba Oct 2003

Incorporating Diversification Into Risk Management, Mitchell Craig Warachka, A. Purnanandam, Y. Zhao, W.T. Ziemba

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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