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Articles 511 - 540 of 700
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Size And Return: A New Perspective, Fangjian Fu, Wei Yang
Size And Return: A New Perspective, Fangjian Fu, Wei Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We document robust empirical evidence that, after controlling for idiosyncratic volatility, large stocks earn significantly higher returns than small stocks. Our empirical results indicate that idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to return, but negatively related to size. Hence, failure to control for idiosyncratic volatility generates a downward omitted variable bias and leads to the widely documented negative relation between size and return. We explain the two contrasting size-return relations, with and without the control for idiosyncratic volatility, in a parsimonious equilibrium model that incorporates three empirical regularities: some individual investors are under-diversified; small stocks have higher idiosyncratic volatilities than large …
Adverse Selection And Corporate Governance, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Vasan Siraprapasiri
Adverse Selection And Corporate Governance, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Vasan Siraprapasiri
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the impact of corporate governance on the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread of stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange. These companies have been identified by Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia (CSLA) with the highest level of corporate governance among 25 emerging markets. We measure corporate governance by several criteria: discipline, transparency, independence, accountability, responsibilities, fairness, and social awareness. The results show that corporate governance has an inverse relationship with adverse selection. However, only the transparency dimension exhibits a significant inverse relationship with adverse selection. In addition, Government-Linked Companies (GLCs) are shown to have a smaller adverse …
Sec Rule 105 And Price Discovery In The Secondary Market, C. Charoenwong, David K. Ding, P. Wang
Sec Rule 105 And Price Discovery In The Secondary Market, C. Charoenwong, David K. Ding, P. Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
Financial Hedging Decision On Procurement Risk For Newsvendor Model With Value-At-Risk Constraint, Yuan Wen, Qing Ding, Jian Chen
Financial Hedging Decision On Procurement Risk For Newsvendor Model With Value-At-Risk Constraint, Yuan Wen, Qing Ding, Jian Chen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Manufacturers must now deal with increasingly fluctuating procurement prices for commodities and industrial component parts. However, it is hard for them to pass cost increases on to downstream markets efficiently. Therefore, manufacturers have sought to solve this problem with various supply management tactics. While vertical integration of key suppliers or signing long-term contracts is possible, financial hedging emerges as the most effective approach to counter commodities price risks. In situations where market demand uncertainty is still unresolved and often interplays with upstream price volatilities, Value-at-Risk (VaR) can help managers handle the multi-fold uncertainties and their potential interactions, by effectively measuring …
A Martingale Approach For Testing Diffusion Models Based On Infinitesimal Operator, Zhaogang Song
A Martingale Approach For Testing Diffusion Models Based On Infinitesimal Operator, Zhaogang Song
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
I develop an omnibus specification test for diffusion models based on the infinitesimal operator. The infinitesimal operator based identification of the diffusion process is equivalent to a “martingale hypothesis” for the processes obtained by a transformation of the original diffusion model. My test procedure is then constructed by checking the “martingale hypothesis” via a multivariate generalized spectral derivative based approach that delivers a asymptotical null distribution for the test statistic. The infinitesimal operator of the diffusion process is a closed-form function of drift and diffusion terms. Consequently, my test procedure covers both univariate and multivariate diffusion models in a unified …
Earnings Management Surrounding Seasoned Bond Offerings: Do Managers Mislead Ratings Agencies And The Bond Market, Gary L. Gaton, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Choong Tze Chua, Jeremy Goh
Earnings Management Surrounding Seasoned Bond Offerings: Do Managers Mislead Ratings Agencies And The Bond Market, Gary L. Gaton, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Choong Tze Chua, Jeremy Goh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study earnings management (EM) efforts surrounding seasoned bond offerings using discretionary current accruals. We find that issuers tend to inflate earnings performance prior to an offering. In order for EM efforts to effectively mislead ratings agencies and the bond market, they must lead to inflated bond ratings and decreased offering yields. Regression results indicate the opposite; aggressive EM efforts are associated with lower initial ratings and higher offering yields. We also find a statistically lower proportion of subsequent downgrades for firms with the most aggressive EM efforts, which is inconsistent with these firms’ inflated initial ratings. While some firms …
Investor Heterogeneity, Investor-Management Agreement And Open Market Share Repurchase, Sheng Huang, Anjan V. Thakor
Investor Heterogeneity, Investor-Management Agreement And Open Market Share Repurchase, Sheng Huang, Anjan V. Thakor
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper develops and tests a new theoretical explanation for why a firm conducts open-market stock repurchases. Investors may disagree with the manager about the firm’s investment projects. A repurchase causes a change in the investor base as investors who are more likely to disagree with the manager tender their shares. This model leads to the following predictions: first, a firm is more likely to buy back shares when the level of investor-management agreement is low, and second, the level of agreement improves following a repurchase. Our empirical tests provide strong support for these predictions. The results are robust to …
The Implications Of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment On Capital Markets: A Bottom-Up View, David Fernandez
The Implications Of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment On Capital Markets: A Bottom-Up View, David Fernandez
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The buzz around sovereign wealth funds has been turned down a notch, but they remain a hot topic. The accusations of sovereign wealth funds having hidden agendas remain, but with the very public losses suffered by some during the recent financial turmoil, such talk has even less credibility. And given that most of those losses were from investments in US, UK, and European financial institutions, hope that sovereign wealth funds would be the saviors of Wall Street has also faded. At its base, four trends continue to keep sovereign wealth funds in focus. First, there is the phenomenal rise of …
The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka
The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and long-term analyst forecast errors. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns along with downward and upward revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth, respectively. Additional results indicate that investor inattention toward firm-level changes in long-term earnings growth is responsible for these risk-adjusted returns.
How Important Are Earnings Announcements As An Information Source?, Sudipta Basu, Truong Xuan Duong, Stanimir Markov, Eng Joo Tan
How Important Are Earnings Announcements As An Information Source?, Sudipta Basu, Truong Xuan Duong, Stanimir Markov, Eng Joo Tan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In a competitive information market, a single information source can only dominate other sources individually, not collectively. We explore whether earnings announcements constitute such a dominant source using Ball and Shivakumar's (2008) [How much new information is there in earnings?, Journal of Accounting Research, 2008, 46(5), pp. 975–1016] R 2 metric: the proportion of the variation in annual returns explained by the four quarterly earnings announcement returns. We find that the earnings announcement days' R 2 is 11% – higher than the corresponding R 2 of days with dividend announcements, management forecasts, preannouncements, and 10-K and 10-Q filings and …
Technical Appendix To "Stochastic Capacity Investment And Flexible Vs. Dedicated Technology Choice In Imperfect Capital Markets", Onur Boyabatli
Technical Appendix To "Stochastic Capacity Investment And Flexible Vs. Dedicated Technology Choice In Imperfect Capital Markets", Onur Boyabatli
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Technical appendix with proofs for the technical statements in the article: Stochastic capacity investment and flexible vs. dedicated technology choice in imperfect capital markets. (2011). Management Science, 57 (12), 2163 - 2179. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1395
The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper evaluates hedge funds that grant favorable redemption terms to investors. Within this group of purportedly liquid funds, high net inflow funds subsequently outperform low net inflow funds by 4.79% per year after adjusting for risk. The return impact of fund flows is stronger when funds embrace liquidity risk, when market liquidity is low, and when funding liquidity, as measured by the Treasury-Eurodollar spread, aggregate hedge fund flows, and prime broker stock returns, is tight. In keeping with an agency explanation, funds with strong incentives to raise capital, low manager option deltas, and no manager capital co-invested are more …
Consolidating Information In Option Transactions, Richard Holowczak, Jianfeng Hu, Liuren Wu
Consolidating Information In Option Transactions, Richard Holowczak, Jianfeng Hu, Liuren Wu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Underlying each stock trades hundreds of options at different strike prices and maturities. The order flows from these option transactions reveal important information about the underlying stock price. How to aggregate the trade information of different option contracts underlying the same stock presents an interesting and important question for developing microstructure theories and price discovery mechanisms in the derivatives markets. This paper takes options on QQQQ, the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock, as an example and examines different order flow consolidation mechanisms in terms of their effectiveness in extracting information about the underlying stock price and volatility movements. The analysis leads …
Hedge Funds, Managerial Skill, And Macroeconomic Variables, Doron Avramov, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Hedge Funds, Managerial Skill, And Macroeconomic Variables, Doron Avramov, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper evaluates hedge fund performance through portfolio strategies that incorporate predictability based on macroeconomic variables. Incorporating predictability substantially improves out-of-sample performance for the entire universe of hedge funds as well as for various investment styles. While we also allow for predictability in fund risk loadings and benchmark returns, the major source of investment profitability is predictability in managerial skills. In particular, long-only strategies that incorporate predictability in managerial skills outperform their Fung and Hsieh (2004) benchmarks by over 17% per year. The economic value of predictability obtains for different rebalancing horizons and alternative benchmark models. It is also robust …
The Unintended Effects Of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Vidhi Chhaochharia, Clemens A. Otto, Vikrant Vig
The Unintended Effects Of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Vidhi Chhaochharia, Clemens A. Otto, Vikrant Vig
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) was passed in the wake of several scandals that rocked corporate America in 2001 and 2002. The objective behind SOX was to improve corporate governance by improving accounting disclosures. Compliance with Section 404 is considered by many to be the most costly requirement of SOX and has been argued to be a disproportionate burden for small firms. Consequently, firms with a public float below $75 million were granted several exemptions from compliance. We document an unintended effect of these exemptions: a weakening of corporate governance through a weakening of the market for corporate control.
A Divertissement On The Financial Crisis: We've Been Speculating, Stefano Harney
A Divertissement On The Financial Crisis: We've Been Speculating, Stefano Harney
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We’ve been speculating. They say our speculation is going to make things worse. But we keep speculating. We’re on the porch, on the corner, in the bar, at the stove, speculating. We’re with others speculating. We’re in debt, bad debt, with others. We’re speculating on others and they’re speculating on us at the table, round the playground, on the bus. We’ve been speculating, banking on each other. We’ve been counting on others, speculating about them. We’re with them and they’re with us, speculating. Our speculation is scattered. Our speculation is scattered among others. Our speculation is valued among others, others …
Pairwise Correlations, Tarun Chordia, Amit Goyal, Qing Tong
Pairwise Correlations, Tarun Chordia, Amit Goyal, Qing Tong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Pairwise stock correlations increase by 27% on average when stock returns are negative. It is trading activity in small stocks that leads to higher correlations when returns are negative. We provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that co-ordinated selling by retail investors drives this asymmetry in correlations. The co-ordinated selling activity by retail investors is triggered by negative market returns.
Out-Of-Sample Industry Return Predictability: Evidence From A Large Number Of Predictors, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Out-Of-Sample Industry Return Predictability: Evidence From A Large Number Of Predictors, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We uncover extensive evidence of out-of-sample return predictability for industry portfolios based on a principal component approach that incorporates information from a large number of predictors. Moreover, we find substantial differences in the degree of return predictability across industries. To understand these differences, we propose a decomposition of out-of-sample industry return predictability into beta and alpha shares, where the former corresponds to a conditional beta pricing model. A conditional version of the popular Fama-French three-factor model accounts for nearly all out-of-sample industry return predictability, with exposures to time-varying market and size risk premiums especially important for explaining differences in return …
Lessons From The Financial Crisis: Report Of The Asian Financial Regulatory Committee, Jeremy Choo Yong Goh, Sri Adiningsih, Maria S. Gochoco-Bautista
Lessons From The Financial Crisis: Report Of The Asian Financial Regulatory Committee, Jeremy Choo Yong Goh, Sri Adiningsih, Maria S. Gochoco-Bautista
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case Of Soccer, Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres
Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case Of Soccer, Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine the extent to which the stock market's inefficient responses to resolutions of uncertainty depend on investors’ biased ex ante beliefs regarding the probability distribution of future event outcomes or their ex post irrational reactions to these outcomes. We use a sample of publicly traded European soccer clubs and analyze their returns around important matches. Using a novel proxy for investors’ expectations based on contracts traded on betting exchanges (prediction markets), we find that within our sample, investor sentiment is attributable, in part, to a systematic bias in investors’ ex ante expectations. Investors are overly optimistic about their teams’ …
Markowitz Meets Talmud: A Combination Of Sophisticated And Naive Diversification Strategies, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Markowitz Meets Talmud: A Combination Of Sophisticated And Naive Diversification Strategies, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The modern portfolio theory pioneered by Markowitz (1952) is widely used in practice and extensively taught to MBAs. However, the estimated Markowitz portfolio rule and most of its extensions not only underperform the naive 1/N rule (that invests equally across N assets) in simulations, but also lose money on a risk-adjusted basis in many real data sets. In this paper, we propose an optimal combination of the naive 1/N rule with one of the four sophisticated strategies—the Markowitz rule, the Jorion (1986) rule, the MacKinlay and Pástor (2000) rule, and the Kan and Zhou (2007) rule—as a way to improve …
Do Foreign Institutions Improve Stock Liquity?, Chi Shen Wei
Do Foreign Institutions Improve Stock Liquity?, Chi Shen Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines whether capital flows by foreign institutions improve liquidity in domestic markets. I find that stocks with increased foreign institutional ownership subsequently experience higher liquidity. However, it is difficult to interpret this evidence as a causal relation because institutions tend to self-select into more liquid stocks. To solve this problem, I exploit the 2003 US dividend tax cut as a natural experiment. The results from a 2SLS (IV) regression confirm that liquidity improved more in dividend-paying stocks located in US tax-treaty countries compared to similar stocks located in non-treaty countries. These patterns are consistent with the notion that …
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact finite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on devian information criterion …
International Diversification With Factor Funds, Cheol S. Eun, Sandy Lai, Frans A. De Roon, Zhe Zhang
International Diversification With Factor Funds, Cheol S. Eun, Sandy Lai, Frans A. De Roon, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose a new investment strategy employing “factor funds” to systematically enhance the mean-variance efficiency of international diversification. Our approach is motivated by the increasing evidence that size (SMB), book-to-market (HML), and momentum (MOM) factors, along with the market factor, adequately describe international stock returns, and by the direct link between investors’ portfolio choice problems and international asset pricing theories and tests. Using data from ten developed countries during the period 1981-2008, we show that the “augmented” optimal portfolio involving local factor funds substantially outperforms the “benchmark” optimal portfolio comprising country market indices only as measured by their portfolio Sharpe …
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This article develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model, the Expectations Hypothesis (ET) and affine yield curve models; it permits a class of low-parameter, multiple state variable dynamic models for the forward curve. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the …
Incorporating Economic Objectives Into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice Under Parameter Uncertainty, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Incorporating Economic Objectives Into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice Under Parameter Uncertainty, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper proposes a way to allow Bayesian priors to reflect the objectives of an economic problem. That is, we impose priors on the solution to the problem rather than on the primitive parameters whose implied priors can be backed out from the Euler equation. Using monthly returns on the Fama-French 25 size and book-to-market portfolios and their 3 factors from January 1965 to December 2004, we find that investment performances under the objective-based priors can be significantly different from those under alternative priors, with differences in terms of annual certainty-equivalent returns greater than 10% in many cases. In terms …
The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper evaluates hedge funds that grantfavorable redemption terms to investors. Within this group of purportedlyliquid funds, high net inflow funds subsequently outperform low net inflowfunds by 4.79% per year after adjusting for risk. The return impact of fundflows is stronger when funds embrace liquidity risk, when market liquidity islow, and when funding liquidity, as measured by the Treasury-Eurodollar spread,aggregate hedge fund flows, and prime broker stock returns, is tight. Inkeeping with an agency explanation, funds with strong incentives to raisecapital, low manager option deltas, and no manager capital co-invested are morelikely to take on excessive liquidity risk. These results …
Price Movers On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand: Evidence From A Fully Automated Order-Driven Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje
Price Movers On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand: Evidence From A Fully Automated Order-Driven Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study examines trade sizes used by informed traders. The selected sample includes 73 active stocks from the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), a pure limit order market, that cover two distinct market conditions of a bull and bear market. Using intraday data, the study finds that large sized trades (i.e., larger than the 75th percentile) account for a disproportionately large impact on changes in traded and quoted prices. This finding compares with the results of studies conducted on U.S. markets that show informed traders employ trade sizes falling between the 40th and 95th percentiles (Barclay and Warner 1993; Chakravarty …
Investor Diversification And The Pricing Of Idiosyncratic Risk, Fangjian Fu
Investor Diversification And The Pricing Of Idiosyncratic Risk, Fangjian Fu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Theories predict that, due to investor under-diversification, idiosyncratic risk is positively priced in expected stock returns. Empirical studies based on various methodologies yield mixed evidence. This study circumvents the debate on methodological issues and traces the pricing of idiosyncratic risk to its economic source – investor under-diversification. Assuming that institutional investors tend to hold more diversified portfolios and thus care little about idiosyncratic risk relative to individual investors, we find that the positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns is significantly stronger (weaker) in stocks that are held and traded more by individual (institutional) investors. In addition, the pricing …
How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu
How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for …