Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Systems And Methods Of Derivative Strategy Selection And Composition, Greg Hammond

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

A method and apparatus of selecting derivative strategies, where candidate derivative strategies are selected from a set of essentially all possible derivative strategies available for an underlying, based upon a user's market sentiment for an underlying, to perform favorably under the foreseen conditions being most appropriate to the user's strategic intent and the choices afforded by the relevant markets.

Health Care And The Cross-Section Of Us Stock Returns, Brian C. Payne, John Geppert

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Health care costs represent a large and growing component of business and consumer expenditures in the US. Medical inflation represents these costs, and it differs from aggregate inflation and other market factors with respect to its rate of growth, statistical properties and the extent to which it can be hedged by households and firms. Using multiple model specifications for the 25-year period from 1985 to 2009, we find medical inflation is robustly priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. It commands a risk premium of between 31 and 51 basis points per annum per unit change in beta. Medical …

Simulation Of Tax Revenues From Individuals Receiving Advanced College Degrees, Dejing Kong

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

State governments always want graduates who received higher education in universities and colleges to stimulate the economic growth of the state. Many state universities want to contribute more to the state’s economy as well, and state universities frequently have relevant economic development activities and offices. The state universities normally receive annual budgeted financial support and occasional special funding from the state government while the state expects contributions to the economic growth and an educated citizen in return. In this research, the economic impact of a graduate degree funded by the state government was considered in the state of Nebraska.

Simulation …

Shareholder Returns From Supplying Trade Credit, Matthew D. Hill, G. Wayne Kelly, G. Brandon Lockhart

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We examine shareholder wealth implications of supplying financing to customers. Robust results demonstrate that excess returns and trade receivables are directly and significantly related. Further evidence indicates the value of receivables is higher for suppliers with stronger motives relating to operating and contracting costs. The results also suggest a discounted value of receivables for financially unconstrained firms. Overall, we conclude that investors recognize trade credit as an effective instrument in mitigating frictions hindering sales growth. Thus, certain suppliers are positioned to derive increased strategic benefits from credit policy.

Heterogeneous Beliefs And Risk Neutral Skewness, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Yi Zhang, Thomas Zorn

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This study tests whether investor belief differences affect the cross-sectional variation of risk-neutral skewness, using data on firm-level stock options traded on the CBOE from 2003 to 2006. Using well known proxies for heterogeneous beliefs, we find that stocks with greater belief differences have more negative skews, even after controlling for systematic risk and other firm-level variables known to affect skewness. This result also goes beyond the net price pressure hypothesis suggested by Bollen and Whaley (2004). Factor analysis identifies latent variables linked to systematic risk and belief differences. The belief factor explains more variation in the risk-neutral density than …

Pricing Mortality Securities With Correlated Mortality Indexes, Yijia Lin, Sheen Liu, Jifeng Yu

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

This article proposes a stochastic model, which captures mortality correlations across countries and common mortality shocks, for analyzing catastrophe mortality contingent claims. To estimate our model, we apply particle filtering, a general technique that has wide applications in non-Gaussian and multivariate jump-diffusion models and models with nonanalytic observation equations. In addition, we illustrate how to price mortality securities with normalized multivariate exponential titling based on the estimated mortality correlations and jump parameters. Our results show the significance of modeling mortality correlations and transient jumps in mortality security pricing.

Building A Better Mousetrap: Enhanced Dollar Cost Averaging, Lee Dunham, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This paper presents a simple, intuitive investment strategy that improves upon the popular dollarcost- averaging (DCA) approach. The investment strategy, which we call enhanced dollar-costaveraging (EDCA), is a simple, rule-based strategy that retains most of the attributes of traditional DCA that are appealing to most investors but yet adjusts to new information, which traditional DCA does not. Simulation results show that the EDCA strategy reliably outperforms the DCA strategy in terms of higher dollar-weighted returns about 90% of the time and nearly always delivers greater terminal wealth for reasonable values of the risk premium. EDCA is most effective when applied …

Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

The focus of this paper is on the house price stress test (termed ALMO) that was designed to assess the fiscal strength of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and, if necessary, to trigger remedial action in order to avert a crisis. We assess whether the ALMO stress test was an adequate representation of an extremely weak housing market, given the best available information leading up to the Great Recession. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to estimate the severity of low probability events (i.e., severe house price declines). We illustrate the complexity and subjective nature of the process used …

Financial Literacy Explicated: The Case For A Clearer Definition In An Increasingly Complex Economy, David L. Remund

College of Journalism and Mass Communications: Faculty Publications

This study explicates the concept of financial literacy, which has blossomed in use this century. Scholars, policy officials, financial experts, and consumer advocates have used the phrase loosely to describe the knowledge, skills, confidence, and motivation necessary to effectively manage money. As a result, financial literacy has varying conceptual definitions in existing research as well as diverse operational definitions and values. This study dissects the differing financial literacy definitions and measures, urging researchers toward common ground. A clearer definition should improve future research, in turn helping consumers better understand and adapt to changing life events and an increasingly complex economy.

Executive Compensation And The Maturity Structure Of Corporate Debt, Paul Brockman, Xiumin Martin, Emre Unlu

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Executive compensation influences managerial risk preferences through executives’ portfolio sensitivities to changes in stock prices (delta) and stock return volatility (vega). Large deltas discourage managerial risk-taking, while large vegas encourage risk-taking. Theory suggests that short-maturity debt mitigates agency costs of debt by constraining managerial risk preferences. We posit and find evidence of a negative (positive) relation between CEO portfolio deltas (vegas) and short-maturity debt. We also find that shortmaturity debt mitigates the influence of vega- and delta-related incentives on bond yields. Overall, our empirical evidence shows that short-term debt mitigates agency costs of debt arising from compensation risk.

Overreaction In The Thrift Ipo Aftermarket, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Christopher Swift

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We study the initial returns and long-run performance of a unique sample of thrifts that have recently converted from mutual to stock form. In addition to a full claim on all IPO proceeds, new investors in a converted thrift also receive a claim on all pre-conversion market value at no cost. Thus, the average firm in our sample has a degree of underpricing automatically built into its offer price. We find that after removing the large initial returns, cumulative excess returns for the firms in our sample are positive for 12 months after the IPO. Beginning in the second year …

The Predictive Content Of Aggregate Analyst Recommendations, John S. Howe, Emre Unlu, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Using more than 350,000 sell-side analyst recommendations from January 1994 to August 2006, this paper examines the predictive content of aggregate analyst recommendations. We find that changes in aggregate analyst recommendations forecast future market excess returns after controlling for macroeconomic variables that have been shown to influence market returns. Similarly, changes in industry-aggregated analyst recommendations predict future industry returns. Changes in aggregate analyst recommendations also predict one-quarter-ahead aggregate earnings growth. Overall, our results suggest that analyst recommendations contain market- and industry-level information about future returns and earnings.

Price Trends And Patterns In Technical Analysis: A Theoretical And Empirical Examination, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Paul Weller, Lee Dunham

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

While many technical trading rules are based upon patterns in asset prices, we lack convincing explanations of how and why these patterns arise, and why trading rules based on technical analysis are profitable. This paper provides a model that explains the success of certain trading rules that are based on patterns in past prices. We point to the importance of confirmation bias, which has been shown to play a key role in other types of decision making. Traders who acquire information and trade on the basis of that information tend to bias their interpretation of subsequent information in the direction …

Dividend Policy, Creditor Rights, And The Agency Costs Of Debt, Paul Brockman, Emre Unlu

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We show that country-level creditor rights influence dividend policies around the world by establishing the balance of power between debt and equity claimants. Creditors demand and managers consent to a more restrictive payout policy as a substitute for weak creditor rights in an effort to minimize the firm’s agency costs of debt. Using a sample of 120,507 firm-years from 52 countries, we find that both the probability and amount of dividend payouts are significantly lower in countries with poor creditor rights. A reduction in the creditor rights index from its highest value to its lowest value implies a 41% reduction …

P/E Changes: Some New Results, Thomas S. Zorn, Donna M. Dudney, Benjamas Jirasakuldech

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

The P/E ratio is often used as a metric to compare individual stocks and the market as a whole relative to historical valuations. We examine the factors that affect changes in the inverse of the P/E ratio (E/P) over time in the broad market (S&P 500 Index). Our model includes variables that measure investor beliefs and changes in tax rates and shows that these variables are important factors affecting the P/E ratio. We extend prior work by correcting for the presence of a long-run relation between variables included in the model. As frequently conjectured, changes in the P/E ratio have …

Do Tax-Exempt Yields Adjust Slowly To Substantial Changes In Taxable Yields?, Donna Dudney, John Geppert

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This paper examines the profitability of two futures trading strategies: a municipal bond futures contract strategy and a spread strategy consisting of a municipal bond futures contract and a Treasury bond futures contract. Both strategies are designed to exploit a slow municipal yield adjustment following changes in Treasury yields. We find economically significant profits to both strategies. Average holding period returns per trade for both strategies tend to increase with the magnitude of the Treasury yield change. Profit distributions associated with various Treasury yield change thresholds tend to be positively skewed, and median profits are significantly lower than average profits. …

Securitization Of Catastrophe Mortality Risks, Yijia Lin, Samuel H. Cox

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Securitization with payments linked to explicit mortality events provides a new investment opportunity to investors and financial institutions. Moreover, mortality-linked securities provide an alternative risk management tool for insurers. As a step toward un¬derstanding these securities, we develop an asset pricing model for mortality-based securities in an incomplete market framework with jump processes. Our model nicely explains opposite market outcomes of two existing pure mortality securities.

Ex–Dividend Day Price And Volume: The Case Of 2003 Dividend Tax Cut, Yi Zhang, Kathleen A. Farrell, Todd A. Brown

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We examine the impact of the 2003 dividend tax cut, which removes the differential taxation between dividends and capital gains for individual investors, on the ex–dividend day price and trading volume. We find the ex–dividend day price and volume are affected by taxes, risk, and transaction costs. The ex–dividend day price drop ratio (excess return) increases (decreases) and dividend clienteles weaken after the tax cut. Ex–dividend day abnormal volume among high dividend yield stocks decreases after the tax cut consistent with a diminished motivation for tax–induced trading. Our results suggest that individual investors have a measurable effect on the ex–dividend …

How Do Firms Adjust Director Compensation?, Kathleen A. Farrell, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Philip L. Hersch

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This paper examines outside director compensation for a sample of 237 Fortune 500 firms over the 1998-2004 period. We document a trend towards fixed-value equity compensation and away from cash only and fixed-number equity compensation. Adjustments to director compensation are consistent with firms targeting a market level of compensation, and firms that deviate from their market wage symmetrically adjust compensation back toward the market level. We also document the relation between changes in compensation and changes in equity values, and find that upward adjustments begin sooner than downward adjustments. When equity values rise, we find virtually no immediate offset to …

An Empirical Examination Of Jump Risk In U.S. Equity And Bond Markets, Lee M. Durham, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

ABSTRACT
Actuaries manage risk, and asset price volatility is the most fundamental parameter in models of risk management. This study utilizes recent advances in econometric theory to decompose total asset price volatility into a smooth, continuous component and a discrete (jump) component. We analyze a data set that consists of high-frequency tick-by-tick data for all stocks in the S&P 100 Index, as well as similar futures contract data on three U.S. equity indexes and three U.S. Treasury securities during the period 1999–2005. We find that discrete jumps contribute between 15% and 25% of total asset risk for all equity index …

On The Lack Of Participating Policy Usage By Stock Insurance Companies, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Stock insurers can reduce or eliminate agency conflicts between policyholders and stockholders by issuing participating insurance. Despite this benefit, most stock companies don’t offer participating contracts. This study explains why. We study an equilibrium with both stock and mutual insurers in which stockholders set premiums to provide a fair expected return on their investment, and with a policyholder who chooses the insurance contract that maximizes her expected utility. We demonstrate that stockholders cannot profitably offer fully participating contracts, but can profitably offer partially participating insurance. However, when the policyholder participation fraction is high, the fair-return premium is so large that …

Changes In Ceo Compensation Structure And The Impact On Firm Performance Following Ceo Turnover, David W. Blackwell, Donna M. Dudney, Kathleen A. Farrell

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We document changes in compensation structure following CEO turnover and relate them to future performance. Compared to outgoing CEOs, incoming CEOs derive a significantly greater percentage of their compensation from option grants and new stock grants. The voluntary turnover sample shows similar changes in compensation structure while the forced turnover sample results suggest that new stock grants drive the significant increase in incentive compensation following turnover. Post-turnover performance is positively associated with new stock grants as a percentage of total compensation in the full sample and when analyzing forced and voluntary turnovers separately. We find limited evidence that future operating …

A Note On The Instability Of The Unprojected Individual Level Premium Cost Method, Pierre Devolder, Valerie Goffin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We compare the unit credit and the unprojected individual level premium cost methods in a continuous time environment and show that the latter may produce unstable contribution rates in a dynamic environment. Specifically, assuming there are no unfunded liabilities, we prove that the unprojected individual premium cost method may produce non-bounded contributions if benefits change too close to the normal retirement age.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 13 (2006) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

Estimation Of Large Insurance Losses: A Case Study, Tine Buch-Kromann

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper demonstrates an approach to analyzing liability data recently developed by a Danish insurance company. The approach is based on a Champernowne distribution, which is corrected with a non-parametric estimator. The correction estimator is obtained by transforming the data set with the estimated modified Champernowne cdf and then estimating the density of the transformed data set by using the classical kernel density estimator. Our approach is illustrated by applying it to an actual data set.

Solvency Of Life Insurance Companies: Methodological Issues, Rosa Cocozza, Emilia Di Lorenzo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper deals with solvency assessment for life insurance business; some methodological issues concerning the solvency of life insurance companies, particularly connected to the investment risk, are suggested. Considerations about the technical equilibrium of an insurance portfolio and the financial regulation lead to a dynamic system involving risk measure and solvency assessment. The formal model is applied to a life annuity cohort in a stochastic context in order to exemplify the potential of the model, especially referred to the need to frame solvency assessment in a dynamic perspective.

On Some Risk-Adjusted Tail-Based Premium Calculation Principles, Edward Furman, Zinoviy Landsman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper explores two tail-based premium calculation principles, the tail standard deviation (TSD) premium and the tail conditional expectation (TCE) premium, in their risk-adjusted and unadjusted forms. They are risk-adjusted using so-called distortion functions. We prove that the proportional hazard (PH) risk-adjusted TCE premium is larger than the unadjusted TCE premium. Additionally, given a risk distribution with location and scale parameters, we prove that the PH risk-adjusted TCE premium reduces to the unadjusted TSD premium.

Bayesian Analysis Of A Health Insurance Model, Helio S. Migon, Edison M.O. Penna

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the problem of determining health insurance premiums based on past information on size of loss, number of losses, and size of population at risk. The size of loss and the number of losses are treated as mutually independent random variables. The number of losses is assumed to follow a Poisson process, and the loss sizes are independent and identically distributed non-negative random variables, and the population at risk is assumed to follow a non-linear growth model. An expression for the premium is obtained through maximization of the insurer's expected utility under a Bayesian model. The parameter estimation process …

Analysis Of An Insurance Risk Model With Thinning Dependence And Common Shock, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a continuous-time insurance risk model with m dependent classes of business with dependent claim number processes due to thinning dependence and a common shock. The impact of the dependence is studied via the adjustment coefficient. The case m = 2 is investigated analytically for exponential claim distributions and via simulation for non-exponential claim distributions.

Pricing Insurance Policies With A Distribution-Free Financial Pricing Model, Min-Ming Wen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The highly skewed and heavy tailed distributions used to model insurance losses (claims) raise a concern about the validity of the applications of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to insurance pricing when market risks are essential. This paper provides an alternative pricing model, called the Rubinstein-Leland model, which can be used to price insurance contracts. The Rubinstein-Leland model has a distribution-free feature that can fully capture the asymmetry embedded in insurance losses. Thus, this model is better able to derive fair prices for insurance policies than is the CAPM.