Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Prudex-Compass: Towards Systematic Evaluation Of Reinforcement Learning In Financial Markets, Shuo Sun, Molei Qin, Xinrun Wang, Bo An

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The financial markets, which involve more than $90 trillion market capitals, attract the attention of innumerable investors around the world. Recently, reinforcement learning in financial markets (FinRL) has emerged as a promising direction to train agents for making profitable investment decisions. However, the evaluation of most FinRL methods only focuses on profit-related measures and ignores many critical axes, which are far from satisfactory for financial practitioners to deploy these methods into real-world financial markets. Therefore, we introduce PRUDEX-Compass, which has 6 axes, i.e., Profitability, Risk-control, Universality, Diversity, rEliability, and eXplainability, with a total of 17 measures for a systematic evaluation. …

Automatic Identification Of Crash-Inducing Smart Contracts, Chao Ni, Cong Tian, Kaiwen Yang, David Lo, Jiachi Chen, Xiaohu Yang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Smart contract, a special software code running on and resided in the blockchain, enlarges the general application of blockchain and exchanges assets without dependence of external parties. With blockchain's characteristic of immutability, they cannot be modified once deployed. Thus, the contract and the records are persisted on the blockchain forever, including failed transactions that are caused by runtime errors and result in the waste of computation, storage, and fees. In this paper, we refer to smart contracts which will cause runtime errors as crash-inducing smart contracts. However, automatic identification of crash-inducing smart contracts is limited investigated in the literature. The …

Exchange-Traded Funds And Real Investment, Constantinos Antoniou, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the link between exchange-traded funds and real investment. Cross-sectionally, higher ETF ownership is associated with an increased sensitivity of real investment to Tobin's q and a heightened ability of stock returns to forecast future earnings. Inclusion of stocks in industry ETFs enhances investment-q sensitivity and implies greater incorporation of earnings information into prices prior to public releases. Greater nonmarket ETF ownership leads to increased (reduced) reliance of real investment on own (peers') stock prices. Overall, the evidence is consistent with ETFs positively affecting real investment efficiency via greater flows of information.

Loan Spreads And Credit Cycles: The Role Of Lenders' Personal Economic Experiences, Daniel Carvalho, Janet Gao, Pengfei Ma

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide evidence that changes in lender optimism can lead to excessive fluctuations in credit spreads across the credit cycle. Using data on the real estate properties of loan officers originating large corporate loans, we find that credit spreads overreact to sophisticated lenders' recent local economic experiences, captured by local housing price growth. These effects are only present when borrowers own real estate assets and during times of greater uncertainty about real estate values, i.e., boom-and-bust cycles in housing prices. Our analysis suggests that recent personal experiences shape sophisticated lenders' beliefs about real estate values, which affect their pricing decisions.

Strategic Financial Management Part Iii: Debt Maturity And Priority And Corporate Liquidity, Fangjian Fu, Clifford W. Smith

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This is the third in our series ofJACFarticles that explores thecorporate motives for and consequences of seasoned equity offer-ings (SEOs) by U.S. public companies over the past 50 years. Likeits two predecessors, this article begins by examining each of thethree standard theories (or “models”) of corporate capital structureand financing policy that continue to receive serious considerationin academic discussions: (1) the Tradeoff Model;(2)thePeckingOrder Model, and (3) theMarket Timing Model.Aswealsobeganby noting in our two previous articles, each of these three modelshas implications that do not fit comfortably with the findings ofour analysis of over 8500 SEOs by U.S. companies between 1970and 2019.

A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedging is a common trading activity to manage the risk of engaging in transactions that involve derivatives such as options. Perfect and timely hedging, however, is an impossible task in the real market that characterizes discrete-time transactions with costs. Recent years have witnessed reinforcement learning (RL) in formulating optimal hedging strategies. Specifically, different RL algorithms have been applied to learn the optimal offsetting position based on market conditions, offering an automatic risk management solution that proposes optimal hedging strategies while catering to both market dynamics and restrictions. In this article, the author provides a comprehensive review of the use of …

Price Comovement And Market Segmentation Of Chinese A- And H-Shares: Evidence From A Panel Latent-Factor Model, Yingjie Dong, Wenxin Huang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the price comovement of cross-listed Chinese A- and H-shares using a panel model with latent factors and a heterogeneous long-run structure. Our model is more flexible than the cointegration system and is estimated using the data-driven Cup–Lasso method. The long-run H-share price discounts are heterogeneous across different groups of stocks. We have identified both stationary and nonstationary latent factors in the price differentials, which are driven by different economic variables. By analyzing the factor loadings of the nonstationary latent factor, we identify some trading-friction and information-friction variables that have effects on the price convergence between the A- …

Are Markets Interested In Adapting To Climate? Insights From Singapore, Stella Whittaker, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

We have collected the views of leading practitioners and academics in Singapore involved in funding and financing urban climate change adaptation1 (thereon referred to as urban adaptation). Throughout this paper we discuss several vital perspectives on adaptation financing, namely responsibility for adaptation investment, the extent of government adaptation investment, private sector adaptation investment appetite and prospects for experimentation in adaptation financing. We also attempt to shed light on the existence or not of an adaptation financing gap2 in Singapore.

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

The City Never Sleeps: But When Will Investment Banks Wake Up To The Climate Crisis?, Theodor Florian Cojoianu, Andrea G. F. Hoepner, Fabiola I. Schneider, Michael Urban, Anh Vu, Dariusz Wojcik

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

Using a global dataset of over 840,000 equity, bond and syndicated loan investment banking deals, we build the fossil fuel investment brokerage profile of financial centres worldwide between 2000 and 2018. We also study whether city-level fossil fuel divestment commitments and country-level green banking policies impact the profile of fossil fuel financial centres over our study timeframe. We find that several financial centres shift their fossil fuel investment brokerage profiles substantially, including the asset classes in which they are active. However, we do not find any evidence that this is driven by city-level divestment commitments. In contrast, we find that …

Simultaneous Multilateral Search, Sergei Glebkin, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Ji Shen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper studies simultaneous multilateral search (SMS) in over-the-counter markets: When searching, a customer simultaneously contacts several dealers and trades with the one offering the best quote. Higher search intensity (how often one can search) improves welfare, but higher search capacity (how many dealers one can contact) might be harmful. When the market is in distress, customers might inefficiently favor bilateral bargaining (BB) over SMS. Such a preference for BB speaks to the sluggish adoption of SMS trading, like request-for-quote protocols, in over-the-counter markets. Furthermore, a market-wide shift to SMS may not be socially optimal.

The Financialization Of Cryptocurrencies, Lei Huang, Tse-Chun Lin, Fangzhou Lu, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that change in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium is the single most significant predictor of Bitcoin daily return. This sentiment measure is similar to the closed-end fund discount measure as in Baker and Wurgler (2006), but more likely to reflect the excess demand from traditional investors than from blockchain specialists. Although there is a substantial variation in Bitcoin price quotes worldwide, this Grayscale premium and discount predict Bitcoin daily return for the most liquid Bitcoin exchanges. Using K-means clustering and LDA analysis, we find that this predictability is especially significant when there is a large variation in bullish and …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …

Research@Smu: Sustainable Living, Singapore Management University

Research Collection Office of Research

Sustainable Living is one of the three key priorities of the SMU 2025 Strategy, and the University is committed to develop it into an area of cross-disciplinary strength. The articles in this booklet highlight impactful sustainability research accomplishments at SMU, which spans five broad pillars: Sustainable Business Operations; Sustainable Finance and Impact Assessment; Sustainable Ageing and Wellness; Sustainable Urban Infrastructure; and Sustainable Agro-business and Food Consumption.

Contents:

Sustainable Business Operations

• Managing the Load on Loading Bays
• Going the Last-mile
• Feeding a Growing World
• Pooling the Benefits of Sharing a Ride

Sustainable Finance and Impact Assessment

• When Going Green Becomes a …

From Market Making To Matchmaking: Does Bank Regulation Harm Market Liquidity?, Gideon Saar, Jian Sun, Ron Yang, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis bank regulations raised market-making costs for bank-affiliated dealers. We show that this can, somewhat surprisingly, improve overall investor welfare and reduce average transaction costs despite the increased cost of immediacy. Bank dealers in OTC markets optimize between two parallel trading mechanisms: market making and matchmaking. Bank regulations that increase market-making costs change the market structure by intensifying competitive pressure from non-bank dealers and incentivizing bank dealers to shift their business toward matchmaking. Thus, post-crisis bank regulations have the (unintended) benefit of replacing costly bank balance sheets with a more efficient form of financial intermediation.

An Integrated Framework On Human-In-The-Loop Risk Analytics, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Risk analytics is an integral component in the overall assessment of the risk profile for potential and existing obligors. For example, credit worthiness is often assessed via the use of scorecards, which are regulatory credit risk models developed based on historical data and domain expertise in banks and financial institutions. A pure statistical model, however, often fails to entertain regulatory requirements on both predictiveness and interpretability at the same time. Instead, practical risk models are developed by incorporating expert opinions within the development process, such as forcing the direction of travel for certain financial factors. In this article, the author …

Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …

Human-Centred Artificial Intelligence In The Banking Sector, Krishnaraj Arul Obuchettiar, Alan @ Ali Madjelisi Megargel

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Changes in technology have shaped how corporate and retail businesses have evolved, alongside the customers’ preferences. The advent of smart digital devices and social media has shaped how consumers interact and transact with their financial institutions over the past two decades. With the rapid evolution of new technologies and customers' growing preference for digital engagement with financial institutions, organizations need to adopt and align with emerging technologies that support speed, accuracy, efficiency, and security in a user-friendly manner. Today, consumers want hyper-personalized interactions that are more frequent and proactive. Moreover, financial institutions have a growing need to cater to consumers' …

The Livingston Survey 2022, S. Anderson, B. Bovino, M. Brown, Thomas Lam, Et Al

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The 16 participants in the December Livingston Survey weakened their forecasts for real GDP growth, compared with their projections in the June 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 2.0 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the second half of 2022. They project 0.4 percent annualized growth over the first half of 2023. The forecasters predict that real GDP will continue to decline and reach -1.0 percent annualized growth in the second half of 2023.

Understanding Sentiment Through Context, Richard M.Crowley, M.H. Franco Wong

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine whether empirical results using text-based sentiment of U.S. annual reports depend on the underlying context, within documents, from which sentiment is measured. We construct a clause-level measure of context, showing that sentiment is driven by many different contexts and that positive and negative sentiment are driven by different contexts. We then construct context-level sentiment measures and examine whether sentiment works as expected at the context-level across four prediction problems. Our results demonstrate that document-level sentiment exhibits significant noise in prediction and suggest that document-level aggregation of sentiment leads to missed empirical nuances. The contexts driving sentiment results vary …

Learning From Manipulable Signals, Mehmet Ekmekci, Leandrro Gorno, Lucas Maestri, Jian Sun, Dong Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study a dynamic stopping game between a principal and an agent. The agent is privately informed about his type. The principal learns about the agent’s type from a noisy performance measure, which can be manipulated by the agent via a costly and hidden action. We fully characterize the unique Markov equilibrium of this game. We find that terminations/ market crashes are often preceded by a spike in (expected) performance. Our model also predicts that, due to endogenous signal manipulation, too much transparency can inhibit learning. As the players get arbitrarily patient, the principal elicits no useful information from the …

The Effects Of Prior Trading Performance Have On Risk-Taking Of Subsequent Trading – The House Money Effect, Lenz Tan Koon Bin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study tests for house money effect on 2,030 non-professional FX investors trading through an Australian Financial Service provider. The results indicate that, in general, investors display a positive relationship between prior gains and the change in subsequent weekly risk-taking - the house money effect. The results also suggest that astute investors display a stronger house money effect than mediocre investors following prior gains. In comparison, mediocre investors display a stronger disposition effect following prior losses than astute investors. The study further reveals that investors who initially demonstrated the house money effect became more prone to the disposition effect during …

Responsible Hedge Funds, Hao Liang, Lin Sun, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds that endorse the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) underperform other hedge funds after adjusting for risk but attract greater investor flows, accumulate more assets, and harvest greater fee revenues. Consistent with an agency explanation, the underperformance is driven by PRI signatories with low environmental, social, and governance (ESG) exposures and is greater for hedge funds with poor incentive alignment. To address endogeneity, we exploit regulatory reforms that enhance stewardship and show that the ESG exposure and relative performance of signatory funds improve post reforms. Our findings suggest that some hedge funds endorse responsible investment to pander …

Towards Automated Safety Vetting Of Smart Contracts In Decentralized Applications, Yue Duan, Xin Zhao, Yu Pan, Shucheng Li, Minghao Li, Fengyuan Xu, Mu Zhang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We propose VetSC, a novel UI-driven, program analysis guided model checking technique that can automatically extract contract semantics in DApps so as to enable targeted safety vetting. To facilitate model checking, we extract business model graphs from contract code that capture its intrinsic business and safety logic. To automatically determine what safety specifications to check, we retrieve textual semantics from DApp user interfaces. To exclude untrusted UI text, we also validate the UI-logic consistency and detect any discrepancies. We have implemented VetSC and applied it to 34 real-world DApps. Experiments have demonstrated that VetSC can accurately interpret smart contract code, …

Commonality In Credit Spread Changes: Dealer Inventory And Intermediary Distress, Zhiguo He, Paymon Khorrami, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Two intermediary-based factors—a corporate bond dealer inventory measure and a broad intermediary distress measure—explain more than 40% of the puzzling common variation in credit spread changes beyond canonical structural factors. A simple intermediary-based model with partial market segmentation accounts for intermediary factors’ explanatory power and delivers three further implications with empirical support. First, whereas bond sorts on risk-related variables produce monotonic loading patterns on intermediary factors, non-risk-related sorts produce no pattern. Second, dealer inventory comoves with corporate-credit assets only, whereas intermediary distress comoves with both corporate-credit and non-corporate-credit assets. Third, dealers’ inventory responds to (instrumented) bond sales by institutional investors.

Riding Off Into The Sunset: Dual-Class Structure In The Age Of Unicorns Going Public, Hao Liang, Junho Park, Wei Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The increasing adoption of dual-class shares (DCS)—an ownership structure that gives corporate insiders greater voting power than other shareholders—among newly listed companies has raisedsignificant governance concerns. We investigate the decision to adopt the DCS structure and itsvalue implications in the recent U.S. IPOs. Using founder cultural traits and Silicon Valley lawfirms as instrumental variables, we find significant post-IPO outperformance by firms adopting DCSwith a sunset clause, especially incapacity-based sunset which stipulates that the DCS will ceaseafter founders’ death, incapacitation or departure, compared to non-DCS firms and DCS firms without sunsets. This outperformance is more pronounced for high-tech firms, after Google’s …

The Alphabet Soup In Reporting And Measuring Esg, Hao Liang, Kam Chee Chan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Harmonising frameworks with the Impact-Weighted Accounts Framework.

The Sun Is Rising In The East: Dual-Class Shares And The Competitive Landscape Of Technological Industries In Asia, Hao Liang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen, Wei Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

There has recently been a relaxation of listing regulations to accommodate and attract firms going public with dual-class shares (DCS), notably in Asia. We examine the value implications of DCS adoption by employing an event study around a regulatory change allowing DCS listings in Hong Kong. We find negative market reactions around these regulatory discussions for firms already listed in Hong Kong, especially for firms in technology (tech) sectors. However, the market reaction turned positive for tech firms during Hong Kong’s first DCS listing. We identify two distinct channels that influenced shareholders’ perspectives on DCS: the competition channel, which dominated …

Bringing Excitement To Empirical Business Ethics Research: Thoughts On The Future Of Business Ethics, Mayowa T. Babalola, Matthijs Bal, Charles H. Cho, Lucia Garcia-Lorenzo, Omrane Guedhami, Hao Liang, Greg Shailer, Suzanne Van Gils

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

To commemorate 40 years since the founding of the Journal of Business Ethics, the editors-in-chief of the journal have invited the editors to provide commentaries on the future of business ethics. This essay comprises a selection of commentaries aimed at creating dialog around the theme Bringing Excitement to Empirical Business Ethics Research (inspired by the title of the commentary by Babalola and van Gils). These editors, considering the diversity of empirical approaches in business ethics, envisage a future in which quantitative business ethics research is more bold and innovative, as well as reflexive about its techniques, and dialog between quantitative …

A Study On The Mechanisms Of Shareholders’ Equity Adjustment In Bankruptcy Reorganization Of Listed Companies, Yongliang Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In recent years, amid cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations, national economic slowdown, economic restructuring, and over-expansion of some enterprises, a number of listed companies have faced serious debt and operational challenges, many of which are worthy of keeping afloat. From June 1, 2007 when the Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the People’s Republic of China came into effect, up to the end of 2021, a total of 93 listed companies in China have gone through bankruptcy reorganization, one of the major means to save the listed companies in distress.

The bankruptcy reorganization of listed companies, by its nature, is a process of game …