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Articles 1021 - 1050 of 1293

Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management

The Long And Short Of It: Evidence Of Year-End Price Manipulation By Short Sellers, Jesse Blocher, Joseph Engelberg, Adam V. Reed Sep 2010

The Long And Short Of It: Evidence Of Year-End Price Manipulation By Short Sellers, Jesse Blocher, Joseph Engelberg, Adam V. Reed

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

We identify a setting in which there is a predictable incentive for short sellers to manipulate prices, and we find patterns consistent with short sellers manipulating prices. Specifically, we find that stocks with high short interest experience abnormally low returns on the last trading day of the year. This effect is strongest among stocks that are easily manipulated and during the last hour of trading. Further, this effect reverses at the beginning of the year, consistent with the temporary nature of price manipulation. We show that hedge funds’ portfolios are closely related to market-wide short interest, suggesting that hedge funds, …

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International Diversification With Factor Funds, Cheol S. Eun, Sandy Lai, Frans A. De Roon, Zhe Zhang Sep 2010

International Diversification With Factor Funds, Cheol S. Eun, Sandy Lai, Frans A. De Roon, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose a new investment strategy employing “factor funds” to systematically enhance the mean-variance efficiency of international diversification. Our approach is motivated by the increasing evidence that size (SMB), book-to-market (HML), and momentum (MOM) factors, along with the market factor, adequately describe international stock returns, and by the direct link between investors’ portfolio choice problems and international asset pricing theories and tests. Using data from ten developed countries during the period 1981-2008, we show that the “augmented” optimal portfolio involving local factor funds substantially outperforms the “benchmark” optimal portfolio comprising country market indices only as measured by their portfolio Sharpe …

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Price Movers On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand: Evidence From A Fully Automated Order-Driven Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje Aug 2010

Price Movers On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand: Evidence From A Fully Automated Order-Driven Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines trade sizes used by informed traders. The selected sample includes 73 active stocks from the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), a pure limit order market, that cover two distinct market conditions of a bull and bear market. Using intraday data, the study finds that large sized trades (i.e., larger than the 75th percentile) account for a disproportionately large impact on changes in traded and quoted prices. This finding compares with the results of studies conducted on U.S. markets that show informed traders employ trade sizes falling between the 40th and 95th percentiles (Barclay and Warner 1993; Chakravarty …

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A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine Aug 2010

A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model, the Expectations Hypothesis (ET) and affine yield curve models; it permits a class of low-parameter, multiple state variable dynamic models for the forward curve. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the …

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Incorporating Economic Objectives Into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice Under Parameter Uncertainty, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou Aug 2010

Incorporating Economic Objectives Into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice Under Parameter Uncertainty, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper proposes a way to allow Bayesian priors to reflect the objectives of an economic problem. That is, we impose priors on the solution to the problem rather than on the primitive parameters whose implied priors can be backed out from the Euler equation. Using monthly returns on the Fama-French 25 size and book-to-market portfolios and their 3 factors from January 1965 to December 2004, we find that investment performances under the objective-based priors can be significantly different from those under alternative priors, with differences in terms of annual certainty-equivalent returns greater than 10% in many cases. In terms …

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The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo Aug 2010

The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper evaluates hedge funds that grantfavorable redemption terms to investors. Within this group of purportedlyliquid funds, high net inflow funds subsequently outperform low net inflowfunds by 4.79% per year after adjusting for risk. The return impact of fundflows is stronger when funds embrace liquidity risk, when market liquidity islow, and when funding liquidity, as measured by the Treasury-Eurodollar spread,aggregate hedge fund flows, and prime broker stock returns, is tight. Inkeeping with an agency explanation, funds with strong incentives to raisecapital, low manager option deltas, and no manager capital co-invested are morelikely to take on excessive liquidity risk. These results …

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Private Equity: The Players, The Jargons, And What Lies Ahead, Knowledge@Smu Jul 2010

Private Equity: The Players, The Jargons, And What Lies Ahead, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

What do private equity and venture capital fund managers do? The short answer to that question will hardly do justice to the profession. Yet, it is not easy to provide an accurate explanation without first condensing the nuts and bolts that form the mechanics of the industry. Dan Schwartz, editor of the Asian Venture Capital Journal, does just that, albeit in the form of the 236-page The Future of Finance: How Private Equity and Venture Capital Will Shape the Global Economy – a book that has prominent industry leaders speaking to the layman.

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Before The Fields Run Dry: How To Avoid The 'Dutch Disease', Knowledge@Smu Jul 2010

Before The Fields Run Dry: How To Avoid The 'Dutch Disease', Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

For any economy, the discovery of abundant natural resources is almost akin to striking nature's lottery. But as any eager financial planner might say to a lottery winner, no windfall can last for long without a solid financial plan. Singapore, a country admired for its relatively substantial national reserves, is home to almost no natural resources (except for human capital, we're told). This lack of natural resources, however, may well be the reason behind the country's economic success. According to Svein Gjedrem, governor of Norges Bank, natural resource-rich countries often suffer from a 'disease' that causes them to rely too …

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Reference Point Adaptation And Disposition Effect: Evidence From Institutional Trading, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Zongfei Yang Jul 2010

Reference Point Adaptation And Disposition Effect: Evidence From Institutional Trading, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Zongfei Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a large proprietary database of institutional trades, we investigate whether, and to what extent, the dynamic adaptation of reference point translates into variations in the disposition effect, and establish three key results. First, the propensity to realize losses declines sharply with the magnitude of prior losses due to insufficient adaptation of reference point. Second, recent adverse information accelerates investors’ adaptation to price depreciation and increases investors’ willingness to realize losses. Finally, a priori of losing money in highly speculative investments decreases investors’ aversion to realize losses. Collectively, the findings suggest that both prior outcomes and recent expectations contribute to …

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Investor Diversification And The Pricing Of Idiosyncratic Risk, Fangjian Fu Jul 2010

Investor Diversification And The Pricing Of Idiosyncratic Risk, Fangjian Fu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Theories predict that, due to investor under-diversification, idiosyncratic risk is positively priced in expected stock returns. Empirical studies based on various methodologies yield mixed evidence. This study circumvents the debate on methodological issues and traces the pricing of idiosyncratic risk to its economic source – investor under-diversification. Assuming that institutional investors tend to hold more diversified portfolios and thus care little about idiosyncratic risk relative to individual investors, we find that the positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns is significantly stronger (weaker) in stocks that are held and traded more by individual (institutional) investors. In addition, the pricing …

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How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu Jul 2010

How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for …

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Weathering The Storm: Asian Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo Jun 2010

Weathering The Storm: Asian Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

How has the financial crisis shaped the hedge fund industry in Asia? We survey the style, investment region, and assets under management landscape of Asia-based hedge funds before and after the recent economic downturn. Our findings suggest that during the early part of the crisis in 2007, macro and fixed income funds based in Australia were especially vulnerable. When Asian financial markets succumbed in 2008 and 2009, hedge fund exits ramped up in Singapore and Hong Kong, particularly amongst event driven and Japan-focused funds. Small funds were most susceptible to closure during the liquidity crunch. Conversely, CTAs and Greater China-focused …

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Secrets And Lies: How One Man Charmed His Way Into The Hearts, Minds And Wallets Of New York's Rich And Powerful, Knowledge@Smu Jun 2010

Secrets And Lies: How One Man Charmed His Way Into The Hearts, Minds And Wallets Of New York's Rich And Powerful, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Bernie Madoff’s reputation as the largest ponzi scheme operator will probably outlast the 150-year jail sentence he is now serving. For decades, the man created an aura around himself that spoke to the romantic ambitions of Wall Street's sycophants: unyielding success, exclusivity and power. Moreover, Madoff conjured a mystique so intriguing he had investors practically begging to surrender their money. But not everyone was blinded. Harry Markopolos, a financial consultant turned famous whistleblower, was convinced that the magician hath no magical abilities. For close to ten years, he nudged US regulators to no avail. His journey is detailed in the …

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Side-By-Side Management Of Hedge Funds And Mutual Funds, Tom Nohel, Z. Jay Wang, Lu Zheng Jun 2010

Side-By-Side Management Of Hedge Funds And Mutual Funds, Tom Nohel, Z. Jay Wang, Lu Zheng

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

We examine situations where the same fund manager simultaneously manages mutual funds and hedge funds. We refer to this as side-by-side management. We document 344 such cases involving 693 mutual funds and 538 hedge funds. Proponents of this practice argue that it is essential to hire and retain star performers. Detractors argue that the temptation for abuse is high and the practice should be banned. Our analysis based on various performance metrics shows that side-by-side mutual fund managers significantly outperform peer funds, consistent with this privilege being granted primarily to star performers. Interestingly, side-by-side hedge fund managers are at best …

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Financial Sector Liberalization And Its Challenges To The Local Banks: The Experience Of Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Gilbert Yip Wei Tan Jun 2010

Financial Sector Liberalization And Its Challenges To The Local Banks: The Experience Of Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Gilbert Yip Wei Tan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The main theme of the paper is about the challenges that financial sector liberalization poses to local banks. It reviews the experience of Singapore. We begin by explaining the unique circumstances surrounding Singapore. A small city-state controlled by a single party with about 65% majority in Parliament, Singapore has a paternalistic government that can be protective of industries that are strategic to the development of the country. Yet its government is also pragmatic, forward looking and pro-reformists. Because of its unique circumstances, the Singapore experience with liberalization is worth studying. Three key ideas will emerge in the paper. First, the …

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Pricing Options In An Extended Black Scholes Economy With Illiquidity: Theory And Empirical Evidence, Umut Cetin, Robert Jarrow, Mitchell Protter, Mitchell Warachka Jun 2010

Pricing Options In An Extended Black Scholes Economy With Illiquidity: Theory And Empirical Evidence, Umut Cetin, Robert Jarrow, Mitchell Protter, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article studies the pricing of options in an extended Black Scholes economy in which the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. The resulting liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic supply curve, with the transaction price being a function of the trade size. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, the supply curve is upward sloping with purchases executed at higher prices and sales at lower prices. Optimal discrete time hedging strategies are then derived. Empirical evidence reveals a significant liquidity cost intrinsic to every option. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

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An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh Jun 2010

An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct an agent-based model to study the interplay between extreme price shocks and illiquidity in the presence of systematic traders known as trend followers. The agent-based approach is particularly attractive in modeling commodity markets because the approach allows for the explicit modeling of production, capacities, and storage constraints. Our study begins by using the price stream from a market simulation involving human participants and studies the behavior of various trend-following strategies, assuming initially that their participation will not impact the market. We notice an incremental deterioration in strategy performance as and when strategies deviate further and further from the …

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Mutual Fund Flows, Performance Persistence, And Board Quality, Sandy Lai, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe (Joe) Zhang Jun 2010

Mutual Fund Flows, Performance Persistence, And Board Quality, Sandy Lai, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe (Joe) Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper provides evidence on the impact of fund board quality on (a) the fund flow-performance relation, (b) persistence in fund performance, and (c) a fund’s potential change of strategy following a period of underperformance. We use Morningstar’s board quality ratings as a proxy for the quality of the fund’s board and document three main results. One, we show that funds that rank in the bottom quintile of rankings based on past performance, experience significantly lower flows at the margin when their board quality rating is poor compared to when the board quality is rated as good. Two, we document …

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The Roles That Forecast Surprise And Forecast Error Play In Determining Management Forecast Precision, Jong-Hag Choi, Linda A. Myers, Yoonseok Zang, David A. Ziebart Jun 2010

The Roles That Forecast Surprise And Forecast Error Play In Determining Management Forecast Precision, Jong-Hag Choi, Linda A. Myers, Yoonseok Zang, David A. Ziebart

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Studying the determinants of management forecast precision is important because a better understanding of the factors affecting management’s choice of forecast precision can provide investors and other users with cues about the characteristics of the information contained in the forecasts. In addition, as regulators assess the regulation of voluntary management disclosures, they need to better understand how managers choose among forecast precision disclosure alternatives. Using 16,872 management earnings forecasts collected from 1995 through 2004, we provide strong evidence that forecast precision is negatively associated with the magnitude of the forecast surprise and that this negative association is stronger when the …

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Hot Seats And Seat Warmers: The Hunt For Directors Of Quality, Knowledge@Smu May 2010

Hot Seats And Seat Warmers: The Hunt For Directors Of Quality, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Is it humanly possible for a person to hold more than five directorships? Why are there so few female directors in Singapore? Are we short of qualified directors? How can regulations help maintain standards? These were some of the questions that confronted a panel of seasoned directors speaking at the graduation ceremony of a certification programme for directors; issues that have seen heated debates in Singapore of late. This follows recent reports that an unusually high percentage of directors sit on many different boards, leading to questions of their ability to fully discharge their responsibilities as directors.

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Collective Investments For Pension Savings: Lessons From Singapore's Central Provident Fund Scheme, Benedict S. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Joelle H. Y. Fong May 2010

Collective Investments For Pension Savings: Lessons From Singapore's Central Provident Fund Scheme, Benedict S. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Joelle H. Y. Fong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Singapore's mandatory national defined contribution pension system permits participants to invest their retirement savings in a wide range of investment instruments if they wish, rather than leaving their savings in Central Provident Fund (CPF) accounts to earn interest rates by default. This article asks whether workers seeking to earn higher returns can expect to do better than the CPF-managed default, by moving their money into professionally managed unit trusts. We use historical data to investigate whether fund managers possess superior stock picking and market timing skills, as well as whether they exhibit persistence in performance and offer diversification benefits to …

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Portfolio Selection Under Distributional Uncertainty: A Relative Robust Cvar In Portfolio Management, Dashan Huang, Shushang Zhu, Frank Fabozzi, Masao Fukushima May 2010

Portfolio Selection Under Distributional Uncertainty: A Relative Robust Cvar In Portfolio Management, Dashan Huang, Shushang Zhu, Frank Fabozzi, Masao Fukushima

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Robust optimization, one of the most popular topics in the field of optimization and control since the late 1990s, deals with an optimization problem involving uncertain parameters. In this paper, we consider the relative robust conditional value-at-risk portfolio selection problem where the underlying probability distribution of portfolio return is only known to belong to a certain set. Our approach not only takes into account the worst-case scenarios of the uncertain distribution, but also pays attention to the best possible decision with respect to each realization of the distribution. We also illustrate how to construct a robust portfolio with multiple experts …

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Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong May 2010

Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Portfolio Decisions?, Jun Tu May 2010

Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Portfolio Decisions?, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, …

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Watch The Vote: Avoiding Undesirable Zero-Sum Outcomes, Knowledge@Smu Apr 2010

Watch The Vote: Avoiding Undesirable Zero-Sum Outcomes, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Luxury watches often invoke a lot of debate amongst its aficionados. After the great lengths to which people go to, to collect, study, appraise and critique these mobile mechanical clocks, it is no surprise that they feel very strongly about their picks. Decisions made by prestigious bodies, such as the Grand Prix d’Horlogerie, are hence quite delicate. People's money, ego, and pride are at stake. So picking the winner that will keep the majority satisfied is crucial, yet quite difficult to do. Drawing comparisons to political election outcomes, SMU Economics professor Massimiliano Landi explores a new voting system to address …

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Hedge Fund Contagion, Melvyn Teo Mar 2010

Hedge Fund Contagion, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

Why do correlations all go to one when economic conditions turn bad? We review the latest research on funding liquidity (the ease with which hedge funds obtain capital) and discuss its implications on the asset liquidity and valuations of securities held by funds, on subsequent fund performance, and on contagion across hedge fund investment styles.

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Rewriting The World Order: China's Footprint On The Credit Crisis And International Affairs, Knowledge@Smu Mar 2010

Rewriting The World Order: China's Footprint On The Credit Crisis And International Affairs, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Tired of reading conventional theories to what caused the recent financial crisis? How about a theory that places the blame on China, for a change? Giles Chance, author of “China and the Credit Crisis”, dances between the fine lines as he gives a fresh spin on the crisis, blind Western policymakers, a global currency and the world order that is to come as the "China effect" dominates familiar Western models of capitalism, politics and diplomacy.

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Climate Risk Management: The Case Of Forecasting Tropical Cyclones, Carolyn W Chang, Sk Jack Chang, Kian Guan Lim Mar 2010

Climate Risk Management: The Case Of Forecasting Tropical Cyclones, Carolyn W Chang, Sk Jack Chang, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Global warming has induced an increasing number of deadly tropical cyclones with a continuing trend. Developing high-functional climate risk management tools in forecasting, catastrophe modeling, pricing and hedging is thus crucial. By using transactional price changes of traded hurricane derivatives as the predictor in a doubly-binomial pricing framework, we develop a dynamic market-consensus hurricane forecasting model. Our model can forecast when and how a hurricane will make landfall, and how these forecasts will update themselves upon trading arrival.

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Debt And Study, Fred Moten, Stefano Harney Mar 2010

Debt And Study, Fred Moten, Stefano Harney

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

They say we have too much debt. We need better credit, more credit, less spending. They offer us credit repair, credit counseling, microcredit, personal financial planning. They promise to match credit and debt again, debt and credit. But our debts stay bad. We keep buying another song, another round. It is not credit that we seek, nor even debt, but bad debt -- which is to say real debt, the debt that cannot be repaid, the debt at a distance, the debt without creditor, the black debt, the queer debt, the criminal debt. Excessive debt, incalculable debt, debt for no …

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Overinvestment And The Operating Performance Of Seo Firms, Fangjian Fu Mar 2010

Overinvestment And The Operating Performance Of Seo Firms, Fangjian Fu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Prior studies have documented that firms' operating performance deteriorates following seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). This paper proposes and empirically tests the hypothesis that the poor performance is caused by managers' overinvestment. I show that, subsequent to the offering, SEO firms tend to invest more heavily than non-issuing control firms that are in the same industry and have enough financial slack and similar amounts of investment opportunities. More importantly, I find a negative relation between post-issue investment and operating performance, controlling for investment opportunities and pre-issue performance. The evidence supports an overinvestment interpretation as it stands in contrast to the prediction …

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