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Articles 451 - 480 of 538

Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management

On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu Feb 2007

On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Economic and econometric analysis of continuous-time affine asset pricing models often necessitates solving systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) numerically. Explicit RungeûKutta (ERK) methods have been suggested to solve these ODEs both in the theoretical finance literature and in the financial econometrics literature. In this paper we show that under many empirically relevant circumstances the ODEs involve stiffness, a phenomenon which leads to some practical difficulties for numerical methods with a finite region of absolute stability, including the whole class of ERK methods. The difficulties are highlighted in the present paper in the context of pricing zero-coupon bonds as well …

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A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan Feb 2007

A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper models large swings in exchange rates by introducing nonlinearity via the generalized normal (GEN) distribution [Lye, J.N., Martin, V.L., 1993. Robust estimation, nonnormalities and generalized exponential distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 261-267]. As the distribution allows for bimodality, a switch between modes may give rise to currency crashes. A statistic known as Cardan's discriminant, based on the shape parameters of the GEN, is used to detect bimodality. The Cardan's discriminant is found to reliably predict currency crashes for eight emerging countries and generate relatively low false signals for stable currencies.

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Synthetic Collateral Debt Obligation Pricing, Zhanyong Liu Jan 2007

Synthetic Collateral Debt Obligation Pricing, Zhanyong Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Portfolio credit products, such as CDO and Single Tranche CDO (STCDO) have gained their popularity in financial industry. The key problem facing by the financial engineers is how to price these portfolio credit derivatives, especially how to model the dependent default structure. Copula model proposed by Li (2000) is widely used in practice. Comparing with simulation, factor copula model and conditional independent framework provide good balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, but it is hard to achieve good performance if sticking to normal distribution. There are a few ways to improve it: introducing Levy distributions, using generic copula functions, and …

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Do Warrants Lead The Underlying Stocks And Index Futures?, Ying Kui Lin Jan 2007

Do Warrants Lead The Underlying Stocks And Index Futures?, Ying Kui Lin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The lead-lag relation between options and stocks has been a subject of controversy for years with conflicting findings in the literature. In this thesis, we present an intuitive method to examine the lead-lag relation, if any, in the tick-by-tick data of covered warrants and their underlying stocks or underlying index futures. Our method is non-parametric and needs no assumptions which are critical to the regression-based methods. We find that the electronically traded warrants do not lead stocks or index futures; the movements in the warrants' quotes provide little information about the quotes of the underlying stocks or index futures. Instead, …

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Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu Jan 2007

Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The reason for volatility changing over time is still open. As stated in the extant papers uncertainty of Macroeconomic variable plays more important role in explaining the time varying of volatility than the volatility of Macroeconomic variable itself. In this paper we illustrate this with exploring the relationship between stock market volatility and the Interest Uncertainty. In the paper, we take the uncertainty of the decision of FOMC meeting as the uncertainty of interest rate. As we know, asset price is a tool for people to express their belief about the state of the economy, when uncertainty is high, a …

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On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda Jan 2007

On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis presents a study of LIBOR market model calibration. In particular, the study builds on the prevailing calibration methodologies in an attempt to find a method that simultaneously recovers implied volatility and forward rate correlations structures from market prices of plain vanilla options. In order to ensure that complex derivative pricing and hedging requirements are jointly addressed, the study extends the performance analysis of calibration methods from a static level of goodness-of-fit with market prices test, to a dynamic level of approximation to next period's LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) dynamics when tested on a series of market prices. …

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Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu Jan 2007

Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The traditional equilibrium models of signaling with debt-maturity require transaction costs by firms when raising new capital. In this paper, we propose a new model that has no such requirement. We demonstrate that a separating equilibrium of debt-maturity choice exists under a much more general condition, once accounting for the interactions between borrowers and lenders. The model is able to explain the observed complex financial structure. It is found that callable debt functions much like short-term debt, and serial debt similar to long-term debt. In equilibrium, high-quality firms issue short-term debt, and low-quality firms issue long-term debt.

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The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen Sep 2006

The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine industry affiliation and the relationship between stock returns and book‐to‐market equity (the value effect). The robustness of the value effect is supported as a significant value premium is shown to exist in 15 of 21 industries. Both industry and firm‐level value effects are identified; however, the firm‐level effect is the more prominent of the two. Further, the value effect is shown to be strongest in value industries and weakest in growth industries. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the claim that the value premium is due to investors requiring higher returns from firms in distressed conditions.

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Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting Sep 2006

Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The daily efficient price is the price that would prevail if the market were frictionless. I show that volume-weighted average price (VWAP) provides a less noisy estimate for the unobservable efficient price as compared to the closing price. The variance of daily returns computed with VWAPs is smaller than that computed with closing prices. The difference between these two realized variances is economically significant. The volatility of log closing price change tends to understate the beta risk and Sharpe ratio. A higher noise level in the closing price leads to derivative prices that favor option and volatility-related swap writers.

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Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu Sep 2006

Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates whether trading and quoting prices are rounded for both economic and cultural reasons on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China. We find that the close, bid, and ask prices of domestic shares are rounded to the nearest 10s and 5s for economic reasons, and the last decimal point of prices clusters on 8 for cultural reasons. The cross-sectional variation in 10-cent and 5-cent rounding can be well explained by price and inverse of square root of trading volume, whereas the clustering on 8 can hardly be ascribed to economic variables. The cross-sectional variation in execution …

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Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian May 2006

Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the corresponding return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile by 1.27% per month. Our findings provide indirect empirical support for valuation models in the accounting and finance literatures (e.g., Ohlson, 1995) that emphasize the role of future earnings in predicting stock price movements. Our results also suggest that imperfectly efficient markets reward information gatherers, such as security analysts, for their costly activities in generating superior earnings forecasts.

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Information Value Of Credit Ratings In Asia Ex-Japan Markets, Chen Zhou Jan 2006

Information Value Of Credit Ratings In Asia Ex-Japan Markets, Chen Zhou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study investigates the information value of credit ratings by exploring the relationship between ratings and security price. Unlike previous studies, we concentrate on the major markets ex-Japan in Asia. We begin with an investigation of rating reclassification as well as credit watch placement events by three leading international rating agencies. We show that markets with differing level of sophistication behave differently. Specifically, South Korea and Hong Kong are found to respond in a similar manner. Indonesia shows possible ign of information leakage. In the cases of Malaysia and Thailand, significant and positive equity price responses exist for upgrades, suggesting …

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Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang Jan 2006

Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many finance theories predict that the capital structure affects firm value, which implies that the changes in leverage have an impact on stock returns. Most of the existing literature however has been focusing on the determinants of the capital structure. Using a sample of U.S. public firms during 1975-2002, we document a significantly negative effect of leverage changes on next-quarter stock returns. This effect remains significant after controlling for other firm characteristics such as ROE, book-to-market, firm size, and past returns. We propose and test several hypotheses to explain the observed effect. We find that the negative effect is stronger …

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Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting Dec 2005

Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper presents a synthesized model of asymmetric information. An empirical analysis of more than 1,400 NYSE common stocks shows that trade direction is more important than volume in revealing the asymmetry. There is also evidence to suggest that signed duration reflects informed trading activity. We use the proposed measure of information asymmetry to study daily changes in the level of informed trading and find that earnings announcements narrow the information gap between the informed and the uninformed. On average, information asymmetry is largest at the beginning of the trading day and it decreases monotonically toward the closing bell. More …

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Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu Oct 2005

Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka Oct 2005

The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.

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The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana Oct 2005

The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy Aug 2005

Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A large class of fixed income trading strategies focuses on opportunities offered by the interest rate term structure. This paper studies a set of yield curve trading strategies that are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts to an unconditional curve. These mean-reverting trading strategies exploit deviations in the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve from historical norms. We consider cash-neutral trades with one-month holding periods. Some mean-reverting strategies were found to be highly profitable, and outperform, on a risk-adjusted basis before transaction costs, alternative strategies of an investment in the Lehman Brothers Bond index (by …

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A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine Aug 2005

A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model for the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model,the Expectation Hypothesis and affine yield curve models. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the purpose of pricing interest rate derivatives. We select a model from alternative affine examples that are fitted to …

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Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka Aug 2005

Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We evaluate the relative performance of funds by conditioning their returns on the cross-section of portfolio characteristics across fund managers. Our implied procedure circumvents the need to specify benchmark returns or peer funds. Instead, fund-specific benchmarks for measuring selection and market timing ability are constructed. This technique is robust to herding as well as window dressing and mitigates survivorship bias. Empirically, the conditional information contained in portfolio weights defined by industry sectors, assets and geographical regions is critically important to the assessment of fund management. For each set of portfolio characteristics, we identify funds with success at either selecting securities …

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On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang Jul 2005

On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing empirical studies indicate that inferences on the intertemporal relation between expected return and volatility are highly sensitive to empirical specifications of return dynamics. Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (1993) attempt to resolve this confusing situation by examining several generalizations of the standard GARCH-M model. They conclude a negative risk-return relation solely based on the models that are identified in the first step through a variety of diagnostic tests as relatively “better” models. However, it has not been shown in their study whether the evidence supporting their first-step model selection decision is significant or not. To the extent the strength …

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The Impact Of S&P Depository Receipts On The S&P Cash And Futures Market, Andrew J. Economopoulos May 2005

The Impact Of S&P Depository Receipts On The S&P Cash And Futures Market, Andrew J. Economopoulos

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

The introduction of the S&P Depository Receipt (SPDR) in 1993 was a financial innovation that produced several ripple effects in the financial markets. Not only did it allow the small investor to purchase a piece of the S&P 500 Cash Index, it would allow the large investor to utilize the security for arbitrage opportunities with the S&P 500 futures. A theoretical model of arbitrage opportunities utilizing SPDR is developed. The theoretical model provides two outcomes. First, the adoption of the SPDR as an arbitrage tool depends on transaction and liquidity costs and second, the innovation could potentially reduce the traditional …

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Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee Mar 2005

Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, organized stock exchanges with daily price limits adopted wider limits as narrower limits were criticized for jeopardizing market efficiency. This study examines the impact of a wide price limit on price discovery processes, using data from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Specifically, examined is the impact of daily price limits on (i) information asymmetry; (ii) arrival rates of informed traders; and (iii) order imbalance. Using both trade-to-trade transaction data and the limit order book, we compile evidence that price limits do not improve information asymmetry, delays the arrival of informed traders, and exacerbates order imbalance. These results …

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Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh Mar 2005

Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper discusses the different forms of corporate divestitures, the motives for this corporate activity, and the empirical findings about their economic outcomes. A sample of corporate divestitures is also used to identify the main motivations in the Singapore context. We conclude that divestitures are carried out to achieve operational efficiency and gain incremental profitability and liquidity. Using share price data around the event-dates, we show that announcements of divestitures generally lead to significant increases in the returns of the parent company. The positive abnormal returns are related to the relative size of the divestitures and the computed accounting gains. …

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Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka Feb 2005

Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, …

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Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2005

Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We apply a robust bootstrap to evaluate the performance of a large universe of hedge funds. Our bootstrap estimates indicate that the performance of the top hedge funds cannot be attributed to chance alone. This is true even after adjusting for back fill bias, serial correlation, and structural breaks. Also, we find that hedge fund alpha differences persist over three year horizons. However, an investment strategy designed around this will run into difficulties as the persistence is often confined to small funds that are effectively closed to new inflows. Moreover, Bayesian estimates suggest that standard alphas may be overestimated by …

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Is Fed Policy Still Relevant For Investors?, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Jeffrey M. Mercer Jan 2005

Is Fed Policy Still Relevant For Investors?, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Jeffrey M. Mercer

Finance Faculty Publications

Using 38 years of data, we show that U.S. monetary policy has had, and continues to have, a strong relationship with security returns. Specifically, we find that U.S. stock returns are consistently higher and less volatile during periods when the Federal Reserve is following an expansive monetary policy. Further, firms considered to be more sensitive to changes in monetary conditions, such as small firms and cyclicals, exhibit monetary-policy-related return patterns that are much more pronounced than average. Lastly, the influence of U.S. monetary policy is shown to be a global phenomenon, as international indices have return patterns similar to those …

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Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang Dec 2004

Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong Dec 2004

Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recent studies show that decimal pricing led to significant reductions in the spread and depth on the NYSE. In this paper, we examine how the observed changes in the spread and depth can be attributed to different factors. We show that stocks with higher proportions of one-tick spreads and odd-sixteenth quotes, and more frequent trading before decimalization experienced larger declines in the spread and depth afterwards. We interpret this result as evidence of reduced binding constraints and increased price competition under decimal pricing. We also find that decimal pricing led to nontrivial changes in select stock attributes, and that these …

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International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S. Nov 2004

International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S.

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, a number of researchers have examined the existence and source of shareholder wealth effects around announcements of international joint ventures. The results of these studies are mixed with no clear answers as to when and why investors attach value to firms using joint ventures to enter overseas markets. In this context, we examine the shareholder wealth effects for 92 international joint venture announcements made by Australian firms during June 1988 - December 1997. We find that, on average, shareholders of firms announcing joint ventures realize an abnormal return of +1.65% over the two-day announcement period of days …

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