Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk

Bullion

Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.

Fss 2020 Financial Markets Programme: Progress So Far, Charles Ohamara

Bullion

The Financial System Strategy (FSS) 2020 is a national reform program aimed at developing and transforming Nigeria's financial sector into a growth catalyst to fast track the achievement of the Vision 20:2020 and engineer Nigeria's evolution into on International Financial Centre. The strategic objectives of FSS2020 are to strengthen and deepen the domestic financial markets, enhance the integration of domestic financial markets with the external financial markets and supporting the reals sector. To attain these objectives, the key regulators of the Nigerian financial system come together under the leadership of the Central Bank of Nigeria and crafted the vision to …

Msme Sector: The New Paradigm For Nigeria's Economic Development, Adewale M. Mustapha

Bullion

MSMEs play a major role in most economies, especially in developing countries. This paper examines the opportunity provided by FSS2020 to enhance development of the MSME sector in Nigeria. The paper begins by examining the concept of FSS2O2O strategy for the MSME sector with specific focus on the six (6) Strategic Objectives and three (3) Transformational Programs to drive the development of the sector. These strategic objectives and the respective initiatives have a high multiplier effect on the entire Nigeria financial system. The six objectives ore: Advocate and Work with the government to Drive SME development, 2. Promote Financial Reporting …

Transforming The Mortgage Sub-Sector Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Patrick E. Aririguzo

Bullion

This paper examines the Mortgage sector of FSS2020 Strategy document which falls within the category of the drivers of the FSS2020 Strategy implementation blueprint. FSS2020 Mortgage: Vision and Mission. The paper further explores the Strategic Objectives of FSS2020 Mortgage Sector and the Transformational Programmes which includes: Ml - Establish a secondary mortgage market; M2 - Attract affordable international credit to fund affordable housing programmes; M3 - Advocate for mortgage ready and affordable housing. Three Transformational Programmes were designed to support the realization of the three objectives of the Mortgage Sector namely: TPl - Establishment of Mortgage Refinancing Companies (MRC) TP2 …

Surplus Consumption, Habit Utility And Moody Investors, Jun Lou

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The thesis examines a blend of Asset Pricing topics: joint stock-bond pricing, consumption-based asset pricing puzzles, time variation in risk preference, among others. In chapter one, I first review the literature on respective topics in search of a consolidated framework of resolution. I then propose one, a consumption-based affine model that jointly prices bond and stock in closed form. The tractable feature of the price solutions remains standard as in affine termstructure of interest rates, but presents novelty for the stock prices. In chapter two, I discuss the GMM based procedures for model estimation. In chapter three, I interpret the …

Twin Momentum: Fundamental Trends Matter, Dashan Huang, Huacheng Zhang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using both the levels and the time-series trends of a collection of firms' major fundamentals, we find that fundamentals matter after all: they can also generate strong return momentum. A fundamental momentum strategy that goes long stocks with fundamental in the top quintile and short stocks with fundamental in the bottom quintile earns a monthly average return of 88 bps, and is comparable with the popular price momentum but has little correlation. Combining price momentum and fundamental momentum yields a twin momentum, which has an average return more than the sum of both price momentum and fundamental momentum. Twin momentum …

Hedge Fund Performance And Derivative Hedging, Yongjia Li

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is comprised of three essays which focus on hedge fund performance and derivative hedging. The first essay uses ETF returns as proxies for tradable risk factors in hedge fund performance evaluation and identifies contemporaneously relevant risk factors from the entire universe of ETFs. The model provides more informative estimates of alpha and beta coefficients for predicting hedge fund out-of-sample performance compared with other widely used hedge fund factor models. Portfolios of top alpha hedge funds selected by the model generate statistically significant out-of-sample performance that is substantially higher compared with portfolios selected by other models. In addition, the …

Numerical Methods For Option Pricing Under The Two-Factor Models, Jiacheng Cai

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Pricing options under multi-factor models are challenging and important problems for financial applications. In particular, the closed form solutions are not available for the American options and some European options, and the correlations between factors increase the complexity and difficulty for the formulations and implements of the numerical methods.

In this dissertation, we first introduce a general transformation to decouple correlated stochastic processes governed by a system of stochastic differential equations. Then we apply the transformation to the popular two-factor models: the two-asset model, the stochastic volatility model, and the stochastic interest rate models. Based on our new formulations, we …

International Trade And Unemployment: Evidence From Selected Asean+3 Countries, Atif Awad, Ishak Yussof

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The present study seeks to examine empirically whether exposure to international trade creates or destroys jobs for a sample of eight ASEAN+3 countries (APT). The findings of the PMG technique shows that trade liberalization policies have a negative influence on unemployment rate in the long run. Since medium and unskilled workers are the majority of the workforce, a reduction in trade barriers is likely to expand the trading sector. For the APT countries to compete globally, the trading sector is likely to shift to a more efficient production mode by using intensive capital and high skilled labor, leaving unskilled workers …

Transformational Leadership, Job Satisfaction, And Intention To Quit: A Sequential Mediation Model Of Meaning In Work And Work Engagement, Mohammed Yasin Ghadi

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This study aims to determine the indirect impact of transformational leadership on two job related outcomes: general job satisfaction and intention to quit, by integrating sequential mediating mechanisms of employees’ perceptions toward the job (i.e., the experience of meaningful work) and employees’ perceptions toward own self (i.e., employee engagement) as underlying mechanisms to understand transformational leadership impact in the Australian context. The proposed model was tested using a heterogeneous sample of employees working in various Australian sectors. The study sample consisted of 530 full-time employees working in Australia. This was done by applying structural equation modelling and MEDTHREE technique. The …

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

Gender Gap In Entrepreneurship: Evidence From Argentina, Sebastian Auguste, Alejandro Bricker

DLSU Business & Economics Review

We investigate which factors affect the gender gap in entrepreneurship using evidence from CBMS Argentina and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition for nonlinear models. The dataset allows us to construct a series of personality variables (risk aversion, social aversion, outgoing attitude, flexibility desire, and effort aversion) which are usually missing in standard household surveys. In addition, we can measure current entrepreneurial activity as well as failure from the past. We find that there is no evidence of discrimination in the event of starting up, since the small gap between women and men can be fully explained once the new personality variables are …

The Impact Of Remittances On The Youth’S Human Resource Development, Employment, And Entrepreneurship: Evidence From Philippine Cbms Data, Christopher James R. Cabuay

DLSU Business & Economics Review

International migration has been a significant avenue for many Filipinos to make use of interspatial differences in purchasing power, to send home remittances, and to maximize household income. However, migration has had a stigma of being disruptive to children’s educational outcomes, and remittances have been noted to cause dependence among working age members. This study estimates the impact of remittances on the human resource development, employment, and entrepreneurial outcomes and choices of the Philippine youth, individuals aged fifteen to thirty, using CBMS data census of selected De La Salle school communities. I employ an instrumental variable multinomial logistic regression to …

Evaluating Government Programs For Enhancing The Welfare Of The Youth Towards Entrepreneurship, Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, Marites M. Tiongco, Paulynne J. Castillo, Divina E. Edralin

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

Role Of Education In Encouraging Youth Employment And Entrepreneurship, Brian C. Gozun, John Paolo R. Rivera

DLSU Business & Economics Review

More than half of the Philippines’ jobless sector is comprised of the youth. This warrants the need to identify the constructs and create policy frameworks that would facilitate employability and entrepreneurship among the Filipino youth. Using the Community Based Monitor System (CBMS) survey on Accelerated Poverty Profiling among member schools of De La Salle Philippines, we estimate a multinomial logistic regression that highlights how demographic characteristics and level of education influence a youth’s likelihood to be employed or to be entrepreneurial. Our results provide a framework for policymakers in improving program design and policy implementation targeted towards youth employment and …

Determining The Credit Risk Factors In Accessing Debt Financing For Entrepreneurial Activities, Junette A. Perez, Denmark C. Alarcon, Mar Andriel S. Umali

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Access to debt financing can be explained by the capability to pay of the borrower. The idea is that the better the capability to pay of a borrower, the wider his option to access debt financing and secure bank capital. As a derivative function of the individual and business characteristics of the borrower, the credit risk factors among others include housing type, education, share of income, total sales and total expenses, business and unemployment and economic skills. Using the Community Based Monitoring(CBMS) data, a three stage methodology has been implemented. Regression results show that having business capital is positively affected …

Togolese Informal Sector Workers’ Willingness To Pay For Access To Social Protection, Esso-Hanam Atake, Akoété Ega Agbodji

DLSU Business & Economics Review

In Togo, the informal sector accounts for 84% of the workforce with an annual growth rate of 5%. Despite the importance of the informal sector workers in the Togolese productive activity, they do not benefit from social protection. To address this situation, Act No. 2011-006 was adopted by the Togolese National Assembly in 2011 to provide social security to informal sector workers. However, this was not applied, which means they are still not covered by social protection. This paper seeks to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) of informal workers to have access to social protection services offered by National Social Security …

Making Social Health Insurance And Micro-Savings Programs Work For The Informal Sector In The Philippines, Mitzie P. Conchada, Marites M. Tiongco

DLSU Business & Economics Review

In the Angelo King Institute annual report of Monitoring the Philippine Economy, the Philippines maintained its growth momentum in 2014, besting other Asian economies. Given this backdrop, it is interesting to find out whether various sectors have benefited from this growth, particularly the informal sector which includes bulk of the poor who are self-employed and are mostly engaged in the services sector. The intention of this study is aimed to determine the effect of social protection, particularly social health insurance program (known as PhilHealth Insurance) and the micro-savings scheme (known as AlkanSSSya) on informal sector especially those who are poor …

The Economics Of Brand And Marketing Activities, Mehir Baidya, Bipasha Maity, Kamal Ghose

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Understanding the contributions of brand and marketing activities to sales is vital to make smart decisions. This study attempts to investigate this issue empirically. Data were gathered from two brands in frequently purchase packaged goods category. Two double-log regression models were fitted to data. We find that brand and marketing activities contribute to sales significantly. Managers may find our findings useful to allocate fund between short-term and long-term marketing actions. As far as our knowledge is concerned, this constitutes the first empirical work of economics of branding for regional brands in India.

Market Sensing Capability And Product Innovation Advantages In Emerging Markets: The Case Of Market Entry Quality And Marketing Performance Of Batik Industry In Indonesia, Gita Sugiyarti, Elia Ardyan

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The purpose of this study is to test the effect of market sensing capabilities and product innovation advantage on market entry quality and marketing performance in emerging markets. The samples of this research are 122 respondents. The analysis used in this study is structural equation modeling (SEM). To process the data, AMOS version 21 is employed. The results show that (1) the product innovation advantage can improve market entry quality and market performance, (2) the quality of market entry has significant and positive effect on marketing performance, and (3) the capability to market sense positively and significantly affect the quality …

Trans-Pacific Partnership And Political Motivations: Interpretive Work Based On Analyses Of The Chinese State Media, Tai Wei Lim

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This writing is about studying political motivations for and against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) through interpretive work based on analyses of Chinese state media articles. My criteria for article selection centers on the use of Google index search for such articles drawn from three newspapers: China Daily, People’s Daily, and Global Times. From receiving the call for paper by this journal on 6 January 2016 to the submission deadline for the call for paper on 15 April 2016, a period of about three months, I downloaded articles from these three dailies for analysis. The motivation for the selection of these …

Forecasting The Term Structure Of Philippine Interest Rates Using The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Ramil T. Bataller, Allen Dominique D. Torres, Emmanuel A. Cabral, Proceso L. Fernandez Jr.

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The three-factor Nelson-Siegel model is a widely used model for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Several extensions have recently been proposed. Even for the original model, different methods of treating the parameters have been shown. Ultimately, what works best depends on the data used to estimate the parameters. In this paper, the original three-factor model with fixed shape parameter was applied to forecast the term structure using market data from the Philippines. Instead of giving a pre-determined model for the latent factors, the best time series model for them was searched using standard statistical tools. Based on the …

Editor's Note, Marites Tiongco

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

The Contributors, Marites Tiongco

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample R-squares are 0.96% and 1.72% in good and bad times, or 1.28% and 1.41% in NBER economic expansions and recessions, respectively. The TMR predictability pattern holds in the cross-section of U.S. stocks and the international markets. Our study shows that the absence of return predictability in good times, an important finding of recent studies, is largely driven by …

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

Industry Integration And Stock Price Synchronicity, Hao Cheng, Kian Guan Lim, Tien Foo Sing, Long Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper provides an alternative explanation of the negative relationship between price synchronicity and proprietary right protection that are uncorrelated to the information hypothesis. Using empirical data for 40 countries, we show that stock market volatility and firm size have significant impact on stock price synchronicity. We find significant correlations of international R2 disparity with industry structure integrations. The derived industry integration indices that capture industry correlations significantly explain cross-sectional and temporal variations in price synchronicity. The results imply that tighter industry integration leads to higher R2, and also explain away the property rights factor found in the information hypothesis.

Liquidity In A Market For Unique Assets: Specified Pool And To-Be-Announced Trading In The Mortgage-Backed Securities Market, Pengjie Gao, Paul Schultz, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) trade simultaneously in a market for specified pools (SPs) and in the to-be-announced (TBA) forward market. TBA trading creates liquidity by allowing thousands of different MBS to be traded in a handful of TBA contracts. SPs that are eligible to be traded as TBAs have significantly lower trading costs than other SPs. We present evidence that TBA eligibility, in addition to characteristics of TBA-eligible SPs, lowers trading costs. We show that dealers hedge SP inventory with TBA trades, and they are more likely to prearrange trades in SPs that are difficult to hedge.

Is Google Search Behavior Related To Volatility? Incorporating Google Trends Data Into A Garch Model For Equity Volatility, Timothy De Silva

Undergraduate Economic Review

Intuitively, one would expect that internet search volume would contain valuable information about investor sentiment for a company. With the development of new data sources, such as Google Trends, this relationship can be more easily and objectively examined. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between a company’s stock price volatility and its Google search volume. A small cross-section of twenty companies is considered, and the goal of this paper is to demonstrate the power of Google Trends data in hope of initiating further research. Using a conventional GARCH framework for financial market volatility, an economically and statistically significant contemporaneous …

A Dual-Role Analysis Of Game Form Misconception And Cognitive Bias In Financial And Economic Decision Making, Chinedum D. Nwadiora

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The endowment and the framing effect are widely examined cognitive biases. The experimental economics literature, using choice data gathered through an elicitation device, commonly finds evidence of these biases. Recent work by Cason & Plott (2014) shows that the interpretation of choice data as consistent with biases related non-standard preference theory could also be consistent with confusion or misconception of the game type used to elucidate preferences. I use the Cason and Plott card auction framework to analyze offers of buyers and sellers in an experimental setting with subjects from the University of New Orleans simulating 97 sellers and 90 …