Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

On Some Risk-Adjusted Tail-Based Premium Calculation Principles, Edward Furman, Zinoviy Landsman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper explores two tail-based premium calculation principles, the tail standard deviation (TSD) premium and the tail conditional expectation (TCE) premium, in their risk-adjusted and unadjusted forms. They are risk-adjusted using so-called distortion functions. We prove that the proportional hazard (PH) risk-adjusted TCE premium is larger than the unadjusted TCE premium. Additionally, given a risk distribution with location and scale parameters, we prove that the PH risk-adjusted TCE premium reduces to the unadjusted TSD premium.

Spatial Distribution Of Frequency And Severity Of Water Claims In California, Gurbhag Singh, Max Tang, Don Mcneill, Lyn Hunstad

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We examine the frequency and severity of water loss claims for homeowners insurance across the state of California for the experience years 2000, 2001, and 2002. The spatial distribution patterns of frequencies and severities are mapped and analyzed at the zip code level. The maps reveal the pockets of high frequencies and severities. The information provided in this paper will assist actuaries and policy makers in their quest to set accurate rates for homeowners insurance.

Bayesian Analysis Of Insurance Losses Using The Buhlmann-Straub Credibility Model, Abraham J. Van Der Merwe, Kobus N. Bekker

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We propose a Bayesian analysis to develop credibility estimates of the well known Biihlmann-Straub model. We describe simple numerical methods to obtain exact posterior distributions and predictive densities under this model. These distributions are obtained through Monte Carlo simulations that generate independent samples from the joint posterior distribution. Our methods are therefore preferable to methods such as Gibbs sampling, which generates dependent samples from the joint distribution. The methods discussed also can be extended to more complicated credibility models.

Analysis Of An Insurance Risk Model With Thinning Dependence And Common Shock, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a continuous-time insurance risk model with m dependent classes of business with dependent claim number processes due to thinning dependence and a common shock. The impact of the dependence is studied via the adjustment coefficient. The case m = 2 is investigated analytically for exponential claim distributions and via simulation for non-exponential claim distributions.

Separating The Effects Of Asymmetric Incentives And Inefficient Use Of Information On Financial Analysts' Consensus Earnings Forecast Errors, Stanimir Markov, Min Yen Tan

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Prior research on financial analysts’ consensus earnings forecast errors has tended to explore either incentives-based or inefficient information use-based explanations for the properties of the analysts’ forecast errors. This has limited our understanding of financial analysts’ expectation formation process as incentives and cognitive biases are likely to simultaneously affect the properties of the analysts’ consensus forecast errors. Our main contribution is in separating these two effects. In particular, using consensus quarterly earnings forecast data, we document that analysts have asymmetric loss function and that they do not fully use information about past earnings and forecast errors in minimizing their expected …

Full-Time Faculty Salaries By College By Rank & By Gender, Wku Faculty Senate

Faculty Senate

Report of full-time faculty salaries by college by rank and by gender for FY 2005-2006.

Valuation Effects Of Earnings Restatements Due To Accounting Irregularities, Tan Xu

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation studies three financial topics using earnings restatement data. In the first topic, we discriminate between the market efficiency hypothesis and the underreaction hypothesis by examining their predictions on the stock performance of restating firms in the post-announcement period. Three approaches are used, namely, the cumulative abnormal return (CAR), buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR), and calendar time portfolio approaches. Consistent with the market efficiency hypothesis, we do not find significant abnormal performance in the post-restatement period. In the second topic, we test the extrapolation model (LSV, 1994) by examining the relationship between stock price reaction to earnings restatement and the …

Seek Ways To Minimize The Mushrooming Alternative Minimum Tax, James Trebby, George Kutner

Accounting Faculty Research and Publications

The alternative minimum tax (AMT) is reaching a broader segment of individuals. Yet, many of these taxpayers are not aware of the implications of this tax. Even worse, some of their tax advisors are not as informed as they should be. By identifying items that trigger the individual AMT, taxpayers and their advisors have greater opportunities to develop strategies to avoid the special tax. The AMT is essentially a parallel tax system that involves a separate tax calculation from the regular income tax. The AMT calculation is then compared to the income tax figured under the normal manner. The taxpayer …

Tax Complexity And Small Business: A Comparison Of The Perceptions Of Tax Agents In The United States And Australia, Laura R. Ingraham, S. Karlinsky, M. Mckerchar

Faculty Publications

There is ongoing pressure in both the United States and Australia to simplify their respective tax systems, particularly in regard to small business taxpayers. In the case of both regimes, if substantial progress is to be made towards simplification, the areas of greatest need and the necessary reforms will require careful evaluation. The views of tax agents (practitioners) are highly relevant to the implementation of successful reform in that both regimes rely on self-assessment. It was considered that by undertaking a cross-jurisdictional comparison a greater understanding of complexity, from the perspective of tax agents, could be gained and that, the …

Tax Professionals' Perceptions Of Small Business Tax Law Complexity, Laura R. Ingraham, S. S. Karlinsky

Faculty Publications

The author’s report in this article on their study in questionnaire format that tested the perception of 89 small-business tax practitioners regarding the com- plexity of 37 tax provisions. They found overwhelming consistency on the five most complex and five least complex small-business tax provisions with partner- ships, estate and gift valuations, tax-deferred ex- changes, frequency of law changes, and retirement plans topping the hit parade. Progressive tax rates, estimated taxes, Social Security/self-employment taxes, corporate capital gain provisions, and cash ver- sus accrual method were uniformly and consistently perceived as the least complex. These results have tax policy implications. According …

2004-2005 Financial Summary, Morehead State University. Budget & Financial Planning Office.

Morehead State University Financial Summaries Archive

2004-2005 Financial Summary of Morehead State University.

Modeling Clusters Of Extreme Losses, Beatriz Vaz De Melo Mendes, Juliana Sa Freire De Lima

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We model extreme losses from an excess of loss reinsurance contract under the assumption of the existence of a subordinated process generating sequences of large claims. We characterize clusters of extreme losses and aggregate the excess losses within clusters. The number of clusters is modeled using the usual discrete probability models, and the severity of the sum of excesses within clusters is modeled using a flexible extension of the generalized Pareto distribution. We illustrate the methodology using a Danish fire insurance claims data set. Maximum likelihood point estimates and bootstrap confidence intervals are obtained for the parameters and statistical premium. …

A Primer On Duration, Convexity, And Immunization, Leslaw Gajek, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Hans-Joachim Zwiesler

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The concepts of duration, convexity, and immunization are fundamental tools of asset-liability management. This paper provides a theoretical and practical overview of the concepts, largely missing in the existing literature on the subject, and fills some holes in the body of research on the subject. We not present new research, but rather we provide a new presentation of the underlying theory, which we believe to be of value in the new North American actuarial education system.

Optimal Dividend Strategies: Some Economic Interpretations For The Constant Barrier Case, Maite Marmol, M. Merce Claramunt, Antonio Alegre

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the surplus process of a non-life insurance portfolio with a dividend component represented by a constant dividend barrier strategy. The optimal dividend barrier is known when individual claim amounts follow an exponential distribution. This result for the optimal dividend barrier is used to develop combinations of the levels of the insurer's initial surplus and of the barrier which, under certain economic and financial criteria, can be regarded as optimal.

Risk-Based Regulatory Capital For Insurers: A Case Study, Christian Sutherland-Wong, Michael Sherris

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We study the issues in determining regulatory capital requirements using advanced modeling by assessing and comparing capital requirements under the two alternative approaches. A dynamic financial analysis (DFA) model is used for this case study. These issues are of current international interest as regulators, insurers, and actuaries face the significant issues involved with the introduction of risk-based capital for insurers.

Reputation Pricing: A Model For Valuing Future Life Insurance Policies, Rami Yosef

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The reputation of a life insurer is used to develop a model for determining the value of future life insurance policies. An M / G / 00 process is used to describe the sales and terminations (due to death or maturity) of future policies. The intensity of the arrival process is assumed to depend on the company's reputation. Explicit expressions are derived for the actuarial reserves and expected profits of these future policies.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 12 (2005) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

An Application Of Control Theory To The Individual Aggregate Cost Method, Alexandros A. Zimbidis, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper investigates the individual aggregate cost method (also known as the individual spread-gain method), which is normally applicable in small pension funds or fully contributory schemes, using a control theoretical framework. We construct the difference equations describing the mechanisms of the respective funding method and then calculate the optimal control path of the contribution rate assuming (first) a stochastic and (second) a deterministic pattern for the future investment rates of return. For the first case, the optimal solution is achieved through a linear approximation and using stochastic optimization techniques. It is proved that the contribution rate is (optimally) controlled …

A Modern Approach To Modeling Insurances On Two Lives, Maria Bilikova, Graham Luffrum

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The analysis of life insurance contracts on two lives using the traditional deterministic approach has been an important part of actuarial education for the past fifty years or more. Recently there has been a shift from this deterministic approach to one using a more modern stochastic approach involving the future lifetime random variable. In this paper we will look at the problem using multiple-state models. In our view this approach allows a deeper analysis than either the traditional or the random future lifetime ones.

Ultimate Ruin Probability For A Time-Series Risk Model With Dependent Classes Of Insurance Business, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a discrete-time risk model with m (m ~ 2) dependent classes of insurance business. The claim processes of these m classes are assumed to follow a multivariate autoregressive time-series model of order 1. Given this claims model, we explore the probability of ultimate ruin assuming exponentially bounded claims. As an example, we use simulations to study the case where there are two business and the underlying losses are of two types: bivariate exponential and bivariate gamma claim distributions.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 12, 2005, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Risk-Based Regulatory Capital for Insurers: A Case Study • Christian Sutherland-Wong and Michael Sherris 5

A New Hybrid Defined Benefit Plan Design • Wayne E. Dydo . 47

A Primer on Duration, Convexity, and Immunization • Leslaw Gajek, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, and Hans-Joachim Zwiesler 59

Modeling Clusters of Extreme Losses • Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes and Juliana Sa Freire de Lima 83

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-EIG Distribution • Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, and Adrian Y W Wong 101

A Modern Approach to Modeling Insurances on Two Lives • Maria Bilikova and Graham Luffrum 127

On the …

The Persistence Of Earnings And Corporate Governance In Ipo Firms, Mary F. Calegari, H. A. Maretno

Faculty Publications

In this study, we investigate the earnings persistence in IPO firms by examining the two components of earnings: accruals and cash flows. We also analyze the impact of corporate governance on earnings and the two earnings components. In our comparison of the top and bottom quartiles based on the firms' earnings at the IPO year, we find that although the top quartile firms have a significantly positive accrual component in the IPO year, they eventually have the same negative accrual component of earnings as the bottom quartile firms in the second year after the IPO. In contrast, we find that …

Use Tax Collections, Laura R. Ingraham, K. R. Nunez, L. M. Wright

Faculty Publications

The article reports on a study which investigated the level of compliance with U.S. state use tax laws and the techniques employed by the states in order to enforce use tax. Most states utilize either of two forms of tax reporting and collection. These are: the introduction of a separate use tax form/return; or the use of a separate line on the state income tax return. It was observed that utilizing a separate line item on the state income tax return might cause a rise in the number of taxpayers.

The Effects Of Sfas 131 Geographic Segment Disclosures On The Valuation Of Foreign Earnings, Ole-Kristian Hope, Tony Kang, Wayne Thomas, Florin Vasvari

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Foreign operations are becoming increasingly important for U.S. companies. We investigate whether the market’s valuation of foreign earnings is a function of the firm’s geographic segment disclosures. Specifically, we examine the effects of an increase in the number of geographic segments disclosed and the inclusion of earnings measures in geographic segment disclosures following the adoption of SFAS 131. We find strong evidence that our proxies for increased disclosure are positively associated with the valuation of foreign earnings. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity analyses. Taken together, our results suggest that the pricing of foreign earnings is associated …

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-Eig Distribution, Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, Adrian Y.W. Wong

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The log-EIG distribution was recently introduced to the probability literature. It has positive support and a moderately long tail, and is closer to the lognormal than to the gamma or Weibull distributions. Our simulations show that data generated from a log-EIG distribution cannot be adequately described by lognormal, gamma, or Weibull distributions. The log-EIG distribution is a worthwhile candidate for modeling insurance claims (loss) data or lifetime data. Examples of fitting the log-EIG to published insurance claims data are given.

A New Hybrid Defined Benefit Plan Design, Wayne E. Dydo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Traditional defined benefit plans can be difficult to understand and complex to administer. Hybrid plans (cash balance and pension equity) arose in part to address the former issue, but at a price of greater administrative and litigation risk. I introduce a design for defined benefit pension plans that is easy to communicate to participants, allows for accrual patterns that closely replicate those of the two most common forms of hybrid pension plans, and avoids the controversial nondiscrimination issues that currently trouble sponsors of hybrid plans. The design defines the benefit as a fixed percentage of pay payable over a period …

On The Pricing Of Top And Drop Excess Of Loss Covers, Jean-Francois Walhin, Michel Denuit

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A top and drop cover is a treaty that can be found on the retrocession market. It offers capacity that can be used either to protect a top layer or a working layer. The former is called a "top" and the latter is called a "drop." Using the traditional collective risk model, we demonstrate the use of a multivariate version of Panjer's algorithm to price this cover. We also compare the premium obtained within the exact model with the premiums obtained either with the Frechet bounds or with the wrong assumption of independence.

Obesity, Educational Attainment, And State Economic Welfare, Martin W. Sivula Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

For the first time in history, estimates of the overweight people in the world rival estimates of those malnourished. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2002) ranked obesity among the top 10 risks to human health worldwide. In the early 1960s, nearly half of the Americans were overweight and 13% were obese. Today some 64% of U.S. adults are overweight and 30.5% are obese. Even more alarming, twice as many U.S. children are overweight than were twenty years ago, a 66% increase. Non-communicable diseases impose a heavy economic burden on already strained health systems. Health is a key determinant of development …

Understanding The Impact Of Financial Decisions On Financial Statements: A Pedagogical Note, Tom Arnold, Leroy Brooks, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Viable financial planning requires financial managers' understanding of the consequences of impending decisions on their company's financial performance and position. Understanding the impact of prior decisions on their financial statements also enables future decisions aimed at improving their shareholders' wealth. This note intends to contribute to developing this capacity in finance students. We provide a presentation format directly connecting financial decisions to financial statement impacts. Bridging material covered in accounting courses and a finance student's needs as a possible future manager or analyst, this classroom pedagogy supplements and reinforces the objectives of the financial planning component of a finance course.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 11, 2004, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES (the entire volume)

Product Innovation in Financial Services: A Survey • Christopher O'Brien 5

Phased Retirement for Defined Benefit Plan Participants • Patricia L. Scahill and Jonathan Barry Forman . 43

The Actuarial Value of Life Insurance Backdating • James M Carson and Krzysztof M Ostaszewski . 63

Decision Tree Analysis of Terminated Life Insurance Policies • Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, and Hian Chye Koh . 79

A Comparative Study of Parametric and Nonparametric Estimators of Old-Age Mortality in Sweden • Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, and Kitt Skovsø Petersen 103

Estimation of Complete …