Corporate Finance Commons^™

Startup Equity To Stock Exchange: Key Drivers In Venture-Backed Ipo Journeys, Aryaman Shiv Khosla

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the components that shape the probability of a venture capital (VC) backed company’s ability to transition from private to public markets through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The study employs logistic regression models to analyze firm-specific and funding-related determinants of IPO likelihood. Key predictors in this study include total VC funding, number of VC rounds, average deal size growth, size of first round, average days between rounds, company age, number of employees, and primary industry sector. The findings reveal that higher total funding increases IPO likelihood, highlighting the critical role of robust capital access in fueling growth …

Sustainability Gaps: The Role Of Esg Disparities In M&A Performance During The Covid-19 Era, Anastasia Nikolaeva

CMC Senior Theses

My thesis investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score disparities between acquirer and target companies on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) from 2018 to 2022, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Bloomberg and Refinitiv Eikon datasets, I explore whether the ESG delta between merging firms influences financial outcomes, hypothesizing that higher ESG alignment enhances CAR (cumulative abnormal return). My preliminary findings indicate that larger ESG disparities positively affect acquirer CAR but may reduce target CAR, suggesting that ESG alignment benefits vary by stakeholder and merger dynamics. These results highlight the evolving …

Better Than Blume: An Approach To Forecasting Future Stock Betas With Linear Bayesian Models And Sample-Wide Priors, Kian Shah

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of stock beta forecasts by comparing the widely used Blume adjusted beta to four Bayesian regression models I developed. Stock beta, an essential measure of systematic risk, plays a crucial role in portfolio management and valuation; however, raw betas lack forecasting capabilities. While various attempts have been made to develop alternative beta forecasting models, the Blume adjustment remains the most commonly used. To evaluate this, I created four Bayesian models utilizing a single, sample-wide set of priors, simplifying the computational requirements compared to stock-specific priors. The analysis is based on daily return data for …

Unlocking Value Or Signaling Trouble? Exploring The Determinants Of Immediate Market Reactions To Underwater Employee Option Exchanges, Riley Lai

CMC Senior Theses

Whether employee option exchanges are an effective process to ensure a firm’s future outlook is vital for companies to consider. Evaluating the impact of these exchanges on firm value and shareholder wealth can provide insights for companies to align employee incentives with shareholder interests. This paper seeks to determine a definitive correlation between employee option exchange announcements and positive or negative abnormal returns over the announcement window. The focus is on the regulatory environment post-Section 409A, a provision in the Internal Revenue Code that prohibits the issuance of in-the-money employee stock options. This paper fills a significant gap in the …

Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov

CMC Senior Theses

Traditional beta estimates are constructed from historical stock‑and‑market returns and therefore adjust only as fast as realized data accrue. This thesis investigates whether the forward‑looking information embedded in equity‑option prices can enhance beta forecasts. Using near‑end‑of‑day quotes for 236 S&P 500 firms between 2007 and 2024, I extract risk‑neutral variance and skewness, construct five alternative beta estimators (historical, option‑implied, and three hybrids), and evaluate them against realized betas over six‑, twelve‑, and twenty‑four‑month windows. Rolling‑OLS beta remains the most accurate benchmark at short horizons, yet option‑implied moments add economically and statistically significant value when systematic exposure is expected to change …

Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …

Market Reactions To Disruptions In The Aerospace Industry: An Event Study Analysis Of Abnormal Returns And Corporate Resilience, Rose L. Lauture

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This study examines the effects of component failures, regulatory actions, and safety violations on stock returns and market volatility in the U.S. aerospace sector. Using FAA incident reports, WRDS market data, and corporate disclosures, the analysis combines event study methodology with ARCH/GARCH volatility models and a multiple regression approach. The results reveal that while incident frequency does not significantly affect stock prices measured by abnormal returns, firm-specific financial indicators—such as cash holdings and book-to-market ratio—play a substantial role. The study highlights the limited explanatory power of traditional regression models and calls for the inclusion of market risk and investor sentiment …

Creditors, Shareholders, And Losers In Between: A Failed Regulatory Experiment, Albert H. Choi, Jeffery Zhang

Articles

In the aftermath of the 2007–08 Global Financial Crisis, regulators encouraged many of the world’s largest banks to hold a new type of regulatory instrument with the goal of improving their safety and soundness. The regulatory instrument was known as a “CoCo,” short for contingent convertible bond. CoCos are neither debt nor equity. They are something in between, designed to give the bank a shot in the arm during times of stress. Many of the largest international banks have issued CoCos worth hundreds of billions of dollars. After more than ten years—a decade that includes the collapse of Credit Suisse …

The Dark Tetrad And The Intention To Invest In Cryptocurrency, Amy Bauer-Sinicin

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The Dark Tetrad comprises four distinct negative personality traits with some overlapping qualities: narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism. Characterized as being risky and speculative, cryptocurrencies are not backed by government banks like fiat currencies, nor do they offer the same privacy when engaging in transactions.

Narcissists may view cryptocurrency investment as an opportunity to showcase their financial acumen, reinforcing their self-image. Machiavellians see the decentralized, loosely regulated market as ideal for exploiting opportunities through strategic manipulation. Psychopaths, drawn by the market’s volatility, may engage in exploitative schemes for personal gain. Sadists may find satisfaction in the power and control they …

The Credit Markets Go Dark, Jared A. Ellias, Elisabeth De Fontenay

Faculty Scholarship

Over the past generation, conflicting trends have reshaped the ownership of corporate equity on the one hand and corporate debt on the other. In equity, the two great trends have been the shift from public markets to private ownership and the consolidation of American companies’ stock in the hands of powerful investment funds. In debt, by contrast, the great trends have been a shift from private loans to quasi-public markets and dispersed ownership.

In this Article, we chronicle the recent and dramatic reversal of these trends in the debt markets. Private investment funds executing a “private credit” strategy have become …