Corporate Finance Commons^™

Risk Sources In A Life Annuity Portfolio: Decomposition And Measurement Tools, Mariarosaria Coppola, Emilia Di Lorenzo, Marilena Sibillo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper considers a model for a homogeneous portfolio of whole life annuities immediate. The aim is to study two risk factors: the investment risk and the insurance risk. A stochastic model of the rate of return is used to study these risk factors. Measures of the insurance risk and the investment risk for the entire portfolio are suggested. The problem of the longevity risk is presented, and its consequences with different projections of the mortality tables are analyzed. The model is applied to some concrete cases, and several illustrations show the importance of the two components of the riskiness …

A Comparative Study Of The Performance Of Loss Reserving Methods Through Simulation, Prakash Narayan, Thomas Warthen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Actuaries are often asked to provide a range or confidence level for the loss reserve along with a point estimate. Traditional methods of loss reserving do not provide an estimate of the variance of the estimated reserve, and actuaries use various ad hoc methods to derive a range for the indicated reserve. We use a Monte Carlo simulation method to compare various loss reserve estimation methods, including traditional methods and regression-based methods of loss reserving.

Safe-Side Requirements In Life Insurance: A Corporate Perspective, Annamaria Olivieri, Ermanno Pitacco

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Safe-side requirements concern the assumptions used to calculate premiums in relation to a set of more realistic assumptions. Roughly, safe-side requirements express the capability of premiums to generate positive margins. In a strictly actuarial framework, safe-side requirements are given in terms of some notion of expected profit, calling for assumptions that let such profit be non-negative. An expected profit of zero, however, is not a realistic aim for the insurer. We investigate the notion of conservative assumptions by adopting a unconventional approach. Our focus is the management of the financial resources coming both from premiums and from shareholders' capital. This …

Realistic Pension Funding: A Stochastic Approach, Shih-Chieh Chang

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The process funding pension plans is viewed as a dynamic control process. Two performance measures are introduced to evaluate the effectiveness of plan contributions: the cost-induced performance measure (CIPM) and the ratio-induced performance measure (RIPM). A dynamic programming approach is used to determining the optimal contributions with the objective of minimizing the performance measure. The methodology developed is applied to a sample of members of Taiwan's Public Employees Pension Plan (Tai-PERS). We show that RIPM produces more stable results than those using CIPM.

Ownership Structure And Corporate Performance : A Study On Malaysian Public-Listed Companies, Yoke Ping Lua

Student Works (2000-2009)

This study examines the relationship between ownership structure and corporation performance on 100 Malaysian public-listed companies from 1993 to 1997. We first investigate the effect of ownership concentration on corporate performance, as measured by return on equity, market to book value ratio and return on assets. Further, we extend our analysis by examining the relation between insider ownership and the three accounting ratios. The results showed no significant relationship between ownership concentration or insider ownership and corporate performance for the selected corporations in 1993 - 1997. This study further confirms the studies conducted by Kwabena (1993) and Yee (1998) that …

The Selective Capital And Exchange Controls In Malaysia : A Malaysian Perspective, Muhamad Shukri Abdul Rani

Student Works (2000-2009)

The latest financial and currency crisis that struck Malaysia in 1997 has exposed several macroeconomic weaknesses within the Malaysian economy, in light of the huge influx of international capital flows and speculative activities, and highlighted once again the issue of premature capital account and financial liberalization. These weaknesses such as economic growth well above potential output, loss of efficiency in the economy, current account deficits, over dependence on the banking sector for loans, which were later used for unproductive investments such as those in the stock and property markets have made Malaysia vulnerable to the shocks that emanated from the …

The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Malaysia In The Light Of Financial Liberalization, Farizah Ahmad

Student Works (2000-2009)

Financial liberalization had caused instability in the money demand function as well as in the velocity of money. As a result, money supply is no longer reliable as the main intermediate target and there appeared to be a shift in the technique of monetary control towards greater reliance on interest rates as the main operating instrument. Developing countries that continue to emphasize on quantitative method in their monetary framework while at the same time implement financial refom1s may face the problem of a loss of monetary control and hence, monetary policy may possibly not be effective in influencing income or …

The Impact Of The Real Exchange Rates On Exports : The Malaysian Case, Lay Lian Chuah

Student Works (2000-2009)

Many studies have yielded contradicting results on the impact of real exchange rate volatility on exports. Therefore, this paper attempts to examine the relationship between real exchange rate volatility and Malaysian exports. The model of this study is adapted from Caballero and Corbo's ( 1989) paper. In this respect, this paper also uses the same standard calculation for real exchange rate (RER) volatility. However, a minor adaptation was made whereby the standard deviation, the measurement of real exchange rate volatility is refined by using trade weighted settlement in its computation. This would be a more accurate way of measurement, as …

Afghanistan's Economic Potentials And Malaysian Entrepreneurs' Perceptions, Abdul Sattar Murad

Student Works (2000-2009)

Afghanistan is a country that has started its economic development after the World War II, one of the very early beginners in launching its economic development programs; it is one of the least developed countries in Asia. This study reviews the economic potentials of Afghanistan including mineral, water, land resources and perception of Malaysian Investors. These two aspects of the study highlight the causes of low economic development and factors responsible for it. This study attempts to examine four logically linked questions, i.e. (i) what are the trade potentials of Afghanistan? (ii) What are the mineral potentials of Afghanistan? What …

Seasonality Effects Of Finance Stocks On The Kuala Lumpur Exchange, Foon Lee Ng

Student Works (2000-2009)

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the seasonality effect or calendar anomalies of Finance stocks on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) over the period of January 1992 to June 1999. Among the calendar anomalies investigated in this study are the day-of-the-week effect, the pre-holiday effect, the end-of-the-month effect and the firm size effect. Empirical results reveal that there is an existence of the day-of-the-week effect in the financial stocks for the entire sample period. The results are consistent with those previous studies in which Monday's returns are significantly negative whilst Friday's returns are positive. In particular, …

Relationship Between Risks And Return In The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, Keat Chye Khoo

Student Works (2000-2009)

Results of empirical tests on the relationship between stock returns and arious risk factors of sixty stocks in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange over the eriod 1979-1998 are presented in this study. Overall the applicability of the capital sset pricing model in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange using monthly data is absent. 1arket risk alone or with another risk factors are unable to explain the variation in verage returns. However, there is a significant non-linear relationship between verage returns of individual stocks and market risk in two test periods 1983-86 and 995-98. This study also finds that other risk factors are …

Behaviour Of Trading And Non-Trading Stock Returns In The Malaysian Stock Market, Lay Khong Tan

Student Works (2000-2009)

This study examines the stock returns and volatilities of trading and non­trading day for seven KLSE indices from January 3, 1994 to November 26, 1999. Six return series are computed. They are the overnight, open to close, morning, afternoon, close to close and open to open series. There is consistently positive overnight return throughout Monday to Friday. The weekend effect or Monday effect is significantly positive. The returns of the morning, open to close, close to close series are negative particularly on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. Except for Monday, other weekdays have positive afternoon return. Mean and variance return are …

Long Run Determinants Of Malaysia Trade Balance : A Cointegration Study, Lok Sin Kuar

Student Works (2000-2009)

This paper aims to study the long run determinants of Malaysian trade balance the cointegration method by using quarterly data from 1973 1Q to 1998 4Q. In order to study the long run equilibrium relationship, trade balance is tested against other macroeconomic variables which resembles monetary policy, exchange rate policy and fiscal policy. The final results is that interest rate is the only variable found to be cointegrated with the trade balance. As such, it implies that interest rate may be an effective policy instrument to rectify the problem of trade imbalances in Malaysia. On the other hand, other policies …

Analysing Random Access Memory Chip Yield Performance, Choy Sar Kam

Student Works (2000-2009)

Despite advances in integrated circuits (IC) equipment and fabrication techniques, there still exist random fluctuations or statistical disturbances in any IC manufacturing facility. which can adversely affect the production yield. Actually devices and circuits are being designed with increasingly tighter parameter and performance margins. As a result, chip performance becomes even more sensitive to the statistical variations, and this may result in low production yield. One of the significant detractors of cost in a manufacturing line is yield loss due to contamination and the time required to increase the yield to profitable levels. Yield loss in a manufacturing line is …

Comparison Between The Economic Fundamentals Of Malaysia And Singapore Prior To The 1997 Southeast Asian Currency Crisis, Mun Chow Lai

Student Works (2000-2009)

This research paper makes a comparative study on the economic fundamentals of Malaysia and Singapore prior to the 1997 Southeast Asian Currency Crisis (SACC). The overriding objective here is to determine the structural economic characteristics of Malaysia and Singapore prior to the SACC and to explore the possibility that underlying fundamentals might have contributed towards or exacerbated the SACC. The analysis begins with an overview of the economics of Malaysia and Singapore using graphical and tabular analysis of broad indices. This is followed by the formulation of simultaneous equation models, one for Malaysia and another for Singapore. Besides service balance …

The Impact Of The Recent Currency Crisis On Malaysian Exports, Deivanai Kaliappan

Student Works (2000-2009)

Since the outbreak of East and Southeast Asian financial crisis, a lot has been said and done to explain currency crisis that started with floatation of Thai baht. Economists and policymakers from all over the world gathered to discuss the causes of the main agenda in global economic as well as the action to be taken in bringing the affected countries in the East and Southeast Asian region back to recovery path. However, it is already 17 months since the crisis erupted, still there is no well defined measures that can be adopted by the ailing economies to improve their …

A Study Of Stock Market Efficiency In Malaysia, Shook Chern Lee

Student Works (2000-2009)

This study examines the behaviour of the stock market in Malaysia and its implication on the weak form efficiency of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Daily data of the number of stocks advancing, declining or remaining unchanged in price and the closing levels of the stock market indices of the Main Board, seven main sectors of the Main Board and the Second Board of the KLSE were used in this study. The period covered was from January 1994 to December 1998, a total of 1233 trading days. The results using the Theil-Leenders test indicates that there is some dependence in successive …

Is The Term Premium A Risk Premium?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores whether excess holding period returns on long vis-a-vis short-term securities behave in a manner that is consistent with (1) market efficiency, (2) the time-varying-term-premium variant of the expectations hypothesis, and (3) theories of the term premium that view it as a reward for risk bearing. Both traditional and modern theories of the term premium imply that it should evolve fairly slowly over time as attitudes toward risk and/or perceived covariances with wealth or consumption change. This implies that this period's term premium should have some predictive ability for next period's. However, we find that this quarter's ex-post …

Just Say 'No', Mark S. Beasley, Joseph V. Carcello, Dana R. Hermanson

Faculty Articles

The article discusses the prevention of financial fraud within corporations and businesses in the United States. The types of individuals named in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) files are examined. Different fraud techniques are looked at, including sham sales, the recording of conditional sales, and unauthorized shipments. The author discusses the status of firms after fraud disclosure and the implications it has for finance professionals.

A Study Note On The Actuarial Evaluation Of Premium Liabilities, Claudette Cantin, Philippe Trahan

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Several approaches have been used to estimate premium liabilities. The emphasis of these approaches has been on unearned premium and deferred policy acquisition expenses (DPAE), as such items represent the largest components of premium liabilities. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for the evaluation of premium liabilities and to augment the actuarial literature. We define and review the individual components of premium liabilities as well as the regulatory requirements and Canadian Institute of Actuaries recommendations and standards of practices related to premium liabilities. We also present an actuarial approach for estimating equity in the unearned premium, …

Commissioners Annuity Reserve Valuation Method (Carvm), Keith P. Sharp

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper describes the commissioners annuity reserve valuation method (CARVM) and highlights the fundamental contrast with insurance valuation. Numerical examples illustrate methods of applying CARVM to particular annuity designs. The application of NAIC Actuarial Guideline 13 on bailouts is given particular attention.

Credibility Calculations Using Analysis Of Variance Computer Routines, Dennis H. Tolley, Michael D. Nielsen, Robert Bachler

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

In this paper we present a method of calculating Buhlmann-Straub credibility factors using standard statistical techniques developed for the analysis of variance. Emphasis is placed on using readily available statistical packages such as SAS and SPSS. Additionally many other computational tools such as EXCEL can be programmed to make such calculations. An example and some sample SAS programs are provided.

Determination Of Optimal Premiums As A Constrained Optimization Problem, Farrokh Guiahi

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A simple stochastic model of an insurer's underwriting and related investment operations is used to determine the optimal amounts of written premiums for one period for the insurer's book of business. The written premium for each class is determined by the solution of a constrained optimization problem. The insurer's objective function is the expected profit on a book of business over the period. The insurer has a safety constraint where a certain portion of capital and surplus can be depleted with a small probability. This paper provides an explicit solution for optimum expected profit and corresponding written premiums by classes. …

A Fuzzy Approach To Grouping By Policyholder Age In General Insurance, Richard J. Verrall, Yakoub H. Yakoubov

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

In general insurance, policyholder age is often treated as a factor with the number of levels requiring that the individual ages of the policyholders be grouped. Although the groups are usually defined by the existing underwriting structure, it should be investigated as part of any premium rating exercise that uses a model to assess past claims experience. It is possible that an incorrect grouping by policyholder age could bias the results of the risk premium estimation. On the other hand, it may not be computationally feasible to use separate ages in the premium model, making some form of grouping necessary. …

Multilife Premium Calculation With Dependent Future Lifetimes, Michel Denuit, Anne Cornet

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Actuaries traditionally have calculated multi-life (joint life) premiums by assuming the independence of the future lifetimes of insured persons. Recent studies, however, demonstrate dependence of the future lifetimes of couples (such as husbands and wives). This dependence materially affects the values of multi-life annuities and insurances. Using the Frechet-Hoeffding bounds and Norberg's Markov model, we determine the effect of this dependence in lifetimes on the actuarial present values of a widow's pension benefit.

Recognizing Actuarial Assumptions, Victoria Stachowski, Alice Underwood

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

As assumptions underlie every aspect of actuarial calculations, actuaries must be aware of the assumptions they are using and understand their importance and the possible effects of changing assumptions on the results of their calculations. This paper explores the nature of assumptions in: (i) mathematical models, (ii) data selection, (iii) actuarial methods, and (iv) the business environment. We examine reasons for making assumptions such as convenience, tradition, indications in the data, or lack of data. In addition, we discuss (i) how actuaries can judge whether these reasons are sufficient; (ii) methods that can help actuaries quantify the impact of their …

Carvm And Naic Actuarial Guidelines 33 & 34, Keith P. Sharp

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Annuity valuation under the NAIC Standard Valuation Law is determined according to methods different from those methods used for life insurance. The CARVM assumption of efficient policyholder selection is clarified under NAIC Actuarial Guidelines 33 and 34 to allow for non-elective (e.g., death) benefits. In particular, Actuarial Guideline 34 is oriented toward variable annuities and prescribes methods to be used in the presence of a minimum guaranteed death benefit. In this paper these methods are examined and illustrated with examples.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 7, Nos. 1 And 2, 1999, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

A Study Note on the Actuarial Evaluation of Premium Liabilities • Claudette Cantin and Philippe Trahan (First Prize)

Recognizing Actuarial Assumptions • Victoria Stachowski and Alice Underwood (Second Prize)

Commissioners Annuity Reserve Valuation Method (CARVM) • Keith P. Sharp (Third Prize)

CARVM and NAIC Actuarial Guidelines 33 & 34 • Keith P. Sharp

Multilife Premium Calculation with Dependent Future Lifetimes • Michel Denuit and Anne Cornet

A Fuzzy Approach to Grouping by Policyholder Age In General Insurance • Richard J. Verrall and Yakoub H. Yakoubov

Determination of Optimal Premiums as a Constrained Optimization Problem • Farrokh Guiahi

Credibility Calculations …

Bond Rating Agencies And Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Both bond ratings agencies and stock analysts evaluate publicly traded companies and communicate their opinions to investors. Comparing the timelines of each, it is found that Granger causality flows both ways. While most bond downgrades are preceded by declines in actual and forecasting earnings, both actual earnings and forecasts of future earnings tend to fall following downgrades. Although part of this post-downgrade forecast revision can be attributed to negative news regarding actual earnings, most appears to be reaction to the downgrade itself. Little change is found in actual earnings following upgrades. Analysts, however, tend to increase their forecasts of future …

Cost Of Capital In The Indian Context, Mahesh Santhanam

IIMB Management Review

The major problem faced while calculating the cost of capital in a developing country like India is the extreme volatility and illiquidity of the financial markets. Drawing upon various theories and empirical evidence specific to the Indian context, Mahesh Santhanam guides managers and finance professionals who analyse and evaluate capital budgeting projects that involve consideration of the cost of capital.