Business Intelligence Commons^™

Identifying At-Risk Clients For Xyz Packaging, Co., Eduardo Carlos Cantu Medellin, Mihir Parikh, Christopher Graves, Brendon Jones

SMU Data Science Review

We present a multi-algorithmic modeling approach for the identification of at-risk customers for XYZ Packaging Inc. We define at-risk customers as those having declining seasonally adjusted gross income forecasts which are a strong indicator of impending customer churn. Customer retention is an area of interest regardless of industry but is especially vital in commodity-based low margin industries. We employ traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Anomaly Detection algorithms for discriminating changes in customer revenue patterns. Ultimately, we identify a meaningful proportion of clients whose forward-looking quarterly demand can be predicted within an actionable degree of accuracy.