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Articles 1 - 30 of 48
Full-Text Articles in Business Analytics
Analyzing Stability Of Estimates At Completion For Long Duration Development Efforts, Bradley Vuu, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas, Edward D. White
Analyzing Stability Of Estimates At Completion For Long Duration Development Efforts, Bradley Vuu, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas, Edward D. White
Faculty Publications
Defense program managers utilize Earned Value Management (EVM) methodologies to measure, report, and predict the cost and schedule performance of their programs. Previous research conducted by Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) has shown varied results in the stability of EVM Estimates at Completion (EACs). Stability is defined as a 10% or less deviation from the final EAC at a specified percent completion point of the program. The Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) studies also noted that program-specific factors, such as phase, can impact the accuracy of EVM metrics. This study builds upon those works by assessing …
Aligning Dod Cost Analysis Competencies To Third Party Standards, Helga D. Leite-Evora
Aligning Dod Cost Analysis Competencies To Third Party Standards, Helga D. Leite-Evora
Theses and Dissertations
In an attempt to improve certification training programs, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of 2020 mandated changes to certification requirements for all acquisition related career fields directing the implementation of certification programs based on nationally or internationally accredited third-party standards (NDAA, 2019). This research focused on DoD’s Defense Acquisition University’s (DAU) Business Cost Estimating (BUS-CE) Program’s compliance with the NDAA. The study has one major research question that focuses on determining how well aligned the Defense Acquisition University’s (DAU) BUS-CE certification program’s competency model is to its relevant third-party standard, the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association's (ICEAA) Cost …
The Effects Of International Defense Sales On Aerospace Prime Contractor Profitability, Gregory T. Sanders
The Effects Of International Defense Sales On Aerospace Prime Contractor Profitability, Gregory T. Sanders
Theses and Dissertations
Faced with declining defense budgets following the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, US defense contractors needed to explore other sources of revenue outside of typical domestic defense sales to survive. Expansion into the international defense sales market was one of the avenues pursued by defense contractors attempting to capture profits (Deutch, 2001). However, not many studies have been found assessing the relationship between international defense sales and profitability since then. This research examines the relationship between international defense sales and profitability using data collected on the top five US defense contractors from 1994-2021. Time-series analysis is …
An Analysis Of Escalation Forecasting For Ppi3364, Jacob T. Smith
An Analysis Of Escalation Forecasting For Ppi3364, Jacob T. Smith
Theses and Dissertations
The accurate forecasting of escalation is vital to generating useful cost estimates. This research investigates various methods for their accuracy in forecasting an index, PPI3364, which measures price changes in aerospace product and parts. This is done over two different spans of time: fiscal years and FYDP (five out years). Also, this study of methods for forecasting was conducted from the perspective of the practitioner in the PPBE process. Global Insight is the current source for forecasting escalation for the aerospace products and parts industry, but there are concerns, expressed by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency, regarding the accuracy …
Time-Phasing Rdt&E In Air Force Acquisitions, Trevor A. Bills
Time-Phasing Rdt&E In Air Force Acquisitions, Trevor A. Bills
Theses and Dissertations
Time-phasing describes the process of estimating expenditure profiles for multi-year RDT&E acquisition programs. The AFCAH states that one approach to producing a time-phased estimate is with the use of S-curve distributions. These S-curves are most typically modeled as Weibull, Rayleigh, or Beta distributions. Many prior studies have been completed to better understand which of the three distributions is best suited to time-phasing RDT&E programs, and what program characteristics significantly explain variance in the distributional parameters. Those prior studies utilized either contractor-supplied data or SARs, and typically found the Weibull to be the best performing distribution. This paper makes novel use …
Establishing The Foundations To Measure Organizational Agility For Military Organizations, Jeremy R. Geiger, John J. Elshaw, David R. Jacques
Establishing The Foundations To Measure Organizational Agility For Military Organizations, Jeremy R. Geiger, John J. Elshaw, David R. Jacques
Faculty Publications
There is an ongoing demand for organizations to become more agile in order to prosper amongst their competitors. Many military organizations have declared a renewed focus towards organizational agility. The goal of this research is to isolate the variables needed to measure organizational agility (OA) in military organizations, allowing for the future development of a suitable method to measure OA without the need to interact with outside organizations. This article begins by providing a suitable and formal definition of organizational agility by exploring and analyzing relevant scholarly literature on the subject. Related terms, such as organizational resiliency, flexibility, robustness, versatility, …
Determinants Of Small Business Innovation Research Performance, Ethan E. Blake
Determinants Of Small Business Innovation Research Performance, Ethan E. Blake
Theses and Dissertations
This analysis shows that the Air Force SBIR Program has seen a high rate of failure (over 91%) in Phase II efforts that have completed funding within the last three Fiscal Years. The Joint Capability Area assignment process and subsequent analysis identified several high and low performing groups. Force Integration, Battlespace Awareness, and Protection JCAs were top performers while Command/Control, Logistics, and Force Application were low performers. Additional analysis showed that small businesses have more than double the commercialization rate of large businesses. The commercialization rates for businesses with 150 employees or fewer is 9% while the rate for businesses …
An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller
An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller
Theses and Dissertations
This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …
Cost Performance Index Stability: Insights From Environmental Remediation Projects, Denis S. Clayson, Edward D. White, Alfred E. Thal Jr.
Cost Performance Index Stability: Insights From Environmental Remediation Projects, Denis S. Clayson, Edward D. White, Alfred E. Thal Jr.
Faculty Publications
The purpose of this study was to investigate the stability of the cost performance index (CPI) for environmental remediation projects as the topic is not addressed in the literature. CPI is defined as the earned value of work performed divided by the actual cost of the work, and CPI stability represents the point in time in a project after which the CPI varies by less than 20 percent (measured in different ways).
Analyzing Operating And Support Costs For Air Force Aircraft, Scott C. Hewitson, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory Brown
Analyzing Operating And Support Costs For Air Force Aircraft, Scott C. Hewitson, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory Brown
Faculty Publications
Purpose: Recent legislation resulted in an elevation of operating and support (O&S) costs’ relative importance for decision-making in Department of Defense programs. However, a lack of research in O&S hinders a cost analyst’s abilities to provide accurate sustainment estimates. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate when Air Force aircraft O&S costs stabilize and to what degree. Next, a parametric O&S model is developed to predict median O&S costs for use as a new tool for cost analyst practitioners.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing the Air Force total ownership cost database, 44 programs consisting of 765 observations from 1996 to 2016 …
Load Planning Processes To Enhance Cargo Compartment Utilization, Nathan J. Carlson, Adam D. Reiman, Robert E. Overstreet, Matthew A. Douglas
Load Planning Processes To Enhance Cargo Compartment Utilization, Nathan J. Carlson, Adam D. Reiman, Robert E. Overstreet, Matthew A. Douglas
Faculty Publications
Purpose: The United States Air Force often provides effective airlift for cargo distribution, but is at times inefficient. This paper aims to address the under-utilization of military airlift cargo compartments that plagues the airlift system.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors examine seven techniques designed to increase cargo compartment utilization and increase airlift utilization rates. The techniques were applied through load planning software to 30 real-world movements consisting of 159 sorties. They then ran each post-technique movement through a modeled flight environment to obtain cycle movement data. The metrics gained from both the load planning software and the modeled environment were regressed to …
Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo
Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo
Faculty Publications
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting. Design/methodology/approach: Time series methods, regression modeling, principle components and marketing research are included in this paper. Findings: This paper found the unique ability of multiple statistical methods applied to a forecasting context to consider the effects of inputs that are controlled to some degree by a decision maker. Research limitations/implications: This work will successfully inform the US Army recruiting leadership on how this improved methodology will improve their recruitment process.
Practical implications: Improved US Army analytical technique for forecasting recruiting goals.
Daylighting Strategies For U.S. Air Force Office Facilities: Economic Analysis Of Building Energy Performance And Life-Cycle Cost Modeling With Monte Carlo Method, Sang M. Lee
Theses and Dissertations
The U.S. federal government maintains more than 500,000 facilities in the United States and around the world, most of which are heavily dependent on fossil fuels to produce electricity. Within the federal government, the Department of Defense (DOD) spends over $2.5 billion per year on facility energy consumption which makes them the largest single energy consumer in the United States. Therefore, federal energy conservation goals focus on aggressively reducing energy consumption by reducing the energy demand at the facility level within the next 20 years. Daylighting is a passive solar energy strategy at the facility level that leverages load avoidance …
Balanced Scoredcard: Evaluation Of Air Force Material Command's Implementation And Use, Aaron J. Hepler
Balanced Scoredcard: Evaluation Of Air Force Material Command's Implementation And Use, Aaron J. Hepler
Theses and Dissertations
Managing in a contemporary world has become increasingly more complex. It has evolved from a manufacturing setting with little to steer managers but a single, financial indicator to managing a greater percentage of intangible assets through numerous leading and lagging indicators. The industry has also evolved from centrally located and managed to decentralized, multi-national companies. In response to these changes, a new strategic management tool was developed called the Balanced Scorecard (BSC). This management tool has proved successful throughout the last decade. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the implementation and use of Air Force Materiel Command's (AFMC's) …
Predicting The Effects Of Longitudinal Variables On Cost Schedule Performance, James D. Foreman
Predicting The Effects Of Longitudinal Variables On Cost Schedule Performance, James D. Foreman
Theses and Dissertations
Determining accurate cost and schedule is a crucial step to planning acquisition expenditures but history has shown that estimates are routinely low. Several researchers have attempted to forecast cost and schedule growth; we pick up this stream of research with a new approach. Our data collection and analysis focused on bringing in new data sources and added longitudinal variables to account for changes that took place over time. We assessed cost and schedule parameters for 37 major acquisition programs between Milestones II and III, resulting in 172 input variables and 5 regression models, 2 for schedule slippage and 3 for …
Corporate Entrepreneurship Assessment Instrument (Ceai): Systematic Validation Of A Measure, Tassika M. Davis
Corporate Entrepreneurship Assessment Instrument (Ceai): Systematic Validation Of A Measure, Tassika M. Davis
Theses and Dissertations
The implementation of corporate entrepreneurship is becoming an important activity for private- and public-sector organizations. Organizational factors have been linked to successful corporate entrepreneurship. The Corporate Entrepreneurship Assessment Instrument (CEAI) is an instrument that attempts to measure the effectiveness of the key internal organizational factors, or climate, that influence innovative activities and behaviors. This study attempted to assess the content validity and factor structure of the CEAI and thus add weight to the psychometric soundness of the instrument. In sum, the effectiveness of the instrument was tested using the framework for scale development presented by Hinkin (1998). Overall, the CEAI …
Examining The Impact Of Quality Assurance Manning Practices In Usaf Aircraft Maintenance Units, Terry D. Moore
Examining The Impact Of Quality Assurance Manning Practices In Usaf Aircraft Maintenance Units, Terry D. Moore
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research was to examine the impact that current USAF Quality Assurance (QA) manning practices has on key aircraft wing- and unit-level metrics. Interviews and surveys culminated in development of a QA Manning Effectiveness Matrix. We then used the matrix to calculate historical QA manning effectiveness at 16 ACC bases. Effectiveness scores were regressed with associated historical data for 26 metrics derived from a Delphi survey. Nine metrics were deemed statistically significant, including break rates, cannibalization rates, flying schedule effectiveness rates, key task list pass rates, maintenance scheduling effectiveness rates, quality verification inspection pass rates, repeat rates, …
Analysis Of The Next Generation Small Loader (Ngsl) In Reducing The Mobility Footprint, Victor A. Anaya
Analysis Of The Next Generation Small Loader (Ngsl) In Reducing The Mobility Footprint, Victor A. Anaya
Theses and Dissertations
The impact the Next Generation Small Loader (NGSL) will have on reducing the mobility footprint has not been thoroughly explored. The global mobility system cannot function without adequate Materiel Handling Equipment (MHE). MHE of the future must be multi-purpose in design and should able to support multiple weapon systems. In addition, it will require less maintenance and be easier to deploy thus making air mobility operations more responsive to customer needs. Current MHE is old and labor intensive. The Air Mobility Command's (AMC's) small loaders, especially 25K loaders, are in very poor condition and are incapable of servicing KC-1Os and …
Forecasting Readiness: Using Regression To Predict The Mission Capability Of Air Force F-16 Fighter Aircraft, Steven A. Oliver
Forecasting Readiness: Using Regression To Predict The Mission Capability Of Air Force F-16 Fighter Aircraft, Steven A. Oliver
Theses and Dissertations
According to many, the readiness of America's forces deteriorated in the 1990s. In the Air Force, the combat readiness of its fighter aircraft has declined. One of its indicators of combat readiness, the mission capable rate, is used to identify the percentage of aircraft unable to perform their missions. From FY94-FY98, the aggregate total not mission capable rate for maintenance steadily increased from 14% to 18.2% while total not mission capable rate for supply increased from 5.5% to 17.5% between FY86 and FY00. The USAF uses the funding/Availability Multi-Method Allocator for Spares model to forecast these rates for its aircraft. …
An Investigation Of The Reliability Of The Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (Cpars), John C. Odum
An Investigation Of The Reliability Of The Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (Cpars), John C. Odum
Theses and Dissertations
An Industry trend is to establish long-term relationships with reliable suppliers. One of the criteria used to pick these "reliable suppliers" is past performance. The Department of Defense is also attempting to capitalize on this logical trend to the maximum extent possible by using past performance as an evaluation factor in source selections. Air Force Material Command (AFMC) employs the Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (CPARS). This thesis examines the reliability of the CPARS. This thesis found, despite the fact that policy mandates color ratings be based on period objective measures, the cost color ratings were more consistent with cumulative …
An Evaluation Of Cost Metrics Used Within Aeronautical Systems Center, Kevin M. Byrne
An Evaluation Of Cost Metrics Used Within Aeronautical Systems Center, Kevin M. Byrne
Theses and Dissertations
Aeronautical Systems Center (ASC) system program offices rely on cost metrics to acquire information on program effectiveness and organizational improvement. This study was an attempt to determine the effectiveness of ASC’s cost metrics. The effectiveness of the metrics were determined by the desirability of the behaviors which are exhibited when individuals utilize the specific metrics. Using an expert panel to evaluate the metrics, data was collected using the Group Research Laboratory for Logistics located in Armstrong Laboratory at Wright Patterson AFB, OH. Metric diagnostic charts were utilized to arrange the data into a format which would provide effectiveness information. The …
Why Schedules Slip: Actual Reasons For Schedule Problems Across Large Air Force System Development Efforts, William M. Cashman
Why Schedules Slip: Actual Reasons For Schedule Problems Across Large Air Force System Development Efforts, William M. Cashman
Theses and Dissertations
The three main objectives of this research were to identify the actual reasons for schedule problems across large Air Force system development efforts, to quantity the importance of each category of reasons in terms of frequency and severity, and to demonstrate that the reasons for schedule problems are not program unique, but are common across system development efforts. To this end, this thesis contains a categorization and analysis of 549 reasons for schedule difficulties on 22 large Air Force Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) programs from 1981 to 1994. These aircraft, missile, aircraft equipment, aircraft upgrade, and simulator programs had …
Calibration Of The Price S Software Cost Model, James C. Galonsky
Calibration Of The Price S Software Cost Model, James C. Galonsky
Theses and Dissertations
As more Department of Defense resources are being allocated toward software development, the necessity to accurately plan for software costs has become critical. Obtaining reliable estimates from software cost models, like PRICE S, can be a problem when input parameters are not precisely defined or calibrated. This research effort centered on refining Productivity Factor (PROFAC) values for defense industry applications. The Space and Missile Systems Center Database was used to calibrate PROFAC values for eleven stratified data sets: military ground, military mobile, missile, unmanned space, Ada, Assembly, C, COBOL, FORTRAN, JOVIAL, and PASCAL. The accuracy of the calibrations was determined …
An Analysis Of The Purpose And Development Of Management Reserve, Kevin T. Gould
An Analysis Of The Purpose And Development Of Management Reserve, Kevin T. Gould
Theses and Dissertations
This study investigates both the purpose and development of management reserve budget as it pertains to the Cost-Schedule Control Systems Criteria outlined in DoD Instruction 5(X)O.2. With the Defense Department facing an environment of shrinking budgets, it is becoming increasingly critical for them to manage their acquisition programs as efficient and effective as possible. The objectives of this study were to gain insight, from both a government and commercial perspective, on both the purpose and the development of the contractor's management reserve budget. Contractor system descriptions and interviews of individuals associated with the government acquisition process were used to document …
A Study Of Cumulative Trauma Disorders Of The Upper Extremities And Occupation In Wright-Patterson Adir Force Base Civilian Personnel, Scott T. Hillstead
A Study Of Cumulative Trauma Disorders Of The Upper Extremities And Occupation In Wright-Patterson Adir Force Base Civilian Personnel, Scott T. Hillstead
Theses and Dissertations
This study utilized a case-control methodology to describe and analyze the 115 cases of occupational illnesses reported by civilian employees of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (AFB) between 1990 and 1995. Determining if a statistically significant association existed between age and duration of employment risk factors and cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) was a primary objective. The frequency of CTDs among the various organizations at Wright-Patterson AFB are also described. The research could not prove the existence of a significant association for the 44 subjects and 176 controls matched on occupational group. However, the demographic and other descriptive results may form a …
Just In Time Manufacturing: A Migration From Materials Requirements Planning, Scott A. Koehler
Just In Time Manufacturing: A Migration From Materials Requirements Planning, Scott A. Koehler
Theses and Dissertations
Manufacturing planning and control systems play an important role in an organization's effectiveness. Over the past twenty to thirty years, U.S. manufacturing companies have faced increasing competition for market share from Japanese and other Pacific rim countries. This thesis will investigate the evolutionary path followed by manufacturing companies that have implemented various manufacturing planning and control systems. Specifically, Materials Requirements Planning (MRP) and Just In Time (JIT) production will be analyzed. MRP is a means of convening demand for the final product into a requirements schedule for the various components comprising that product. The JIT philosophy calls for continuously improving …
Calibration Of The Software Life Cycle Model (Slim) To The Space And Missile Systems Center (Smc) Software Database (Swdb), Robert K. Kressin
Calibration Of The Software Life Cycle Model (Slim) To The Space And Missile Systems Center (Smc) Software Database (Swdb), Robert K. Kressin
Theses and Dissertations
Several sophisticated Department of Defense (DOD) weapon and space systems depend on a variety of mission-critical computer software applications. Because of the increasing costs to develop these applications, and today's austere defense budget, accurately estimating the costs to develop software is gaining a great deal of attention within the DOD. Unfortunately, software cost estimation models have been encountering difficulties in accurately estimating the costs of software development. However, research has shown that calibrating one's software cost estimation model can improve the predictive capability of that model. As such, this study focused on calibrating the SLIM cost model to sets of …
Cost Management Competencies: The Importance And Frequency As Seen By The Financial Analyst, Diana E. Pry
Cost Management Competencies: The Importance And Frequency As Seen By The Financial Analyst, Diana E. Pry
Theses and Dissertations
This research studied the application of cost management competencies in the financial management career field. The purpose was to determine how frequently these competencies are used by the financial analysts and how important they are in the analysts' work environment. To accomplish this research a mail survey was sent to 978 financial analysts across Air Force Materiel Command. Out of the 978 survey instruments sent 535 were returned with useful data, for a response rate of 54.7%. From these surveys, 24 of the 49 competencies were identified as being valuable to financial analysts. The 24 competencies provide a framework for …
Calibration Of The System Evaluation And Estimation Of Resources Software Estimation Model (Seer-Sem) For The Air Force Space And Missile Systems Center (Smc), Kolin D. Rathmann
Calibration Of The System Evaluation And Estimation Of Resources Software Estimation Model (Seer-Sem) For The Air Force Space And Missile Systems Center (Smc), Kolin D. Rathmann
Theses and Dissertations
This study examined whether calibration of the SEER-SEM impacted the effort estimates generated by the model for software developments- A historical database was provided by the Space and Missile System's Center Los Angeles, and used as the model's input data. The data was stratified into four usable platforms, military ground command and-control, military ground signal processing, military specification avionics, and military mobile. Each platform's data sets were split, the majority of points for calibration of the model, and the rest for model validation. The accuracy of SEER to this particular data set is limited, yet the model did respond to …
The Effect Of A Self-Care Education Program On A Military Medical Beneficiary Population, Christopher S. Svehlak
The Effect Of A Self-Care Education Program On A Military Medical Beneficiary Population, Christopher S. Svehlak
Theses and Dissertations
Previous research in the area of self-care has focused on medical beneficiaries in a wide range of settings, but the current or former members of the United States Armed Services have largely been ignored. This research concentrates on designing, implementing, and reporting on a study of the impact of a self-care education program on a military beneficiary population. Specifically, retired and active-duty households, whose medical records are maintained by the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base Medical Center, were systematically randomly sampled and invited to participate in the study. Those households who responded were given their choice of a self-care book, and …