Agribusiness Commons^™

Historical Corn Price Evolution Implications For Pre-Harvest Hedging, Cory Walters, Richard K. Preston

Cornhusker Economics

Commodity markets evolve through information provided by participating buyers and sellers and throughout this process the conditions in which commodity markets work are revealed. Producer pre-harvest commodity marketing can be further developed by incorporating information on how commodity markets work, leading to better farm financial performance.

We investigate how commodity markets have historically evolved from spring to fall. While changes in future prices appear random in any given year, observing average daily prices over 32 years could uncover a seasonal tendency. In the past 32 years, the average daily price tends to be higher in the spring than the fall, …

New Cooperative Approaches: Successes And Opportunities, Charlotte Narjes

Cornhusker Economics

The National Cooperative Business Association CLUSA International states that there are 40,000 co-ops in the United States that range in size. Examples of cooperatives include the local Ace Hardware (purchasing cooperative) to Land O' Lakes. Cooperative businesses operate across virtually all industries, or sectors. The most common cooperative in Nebraska is the agricultural cooperative. According to the Nebraska Cooperative Council ag facts, in June 2020 there were 401 cooperatives located across the state providing jobs and services in many rural communities. In addition, there are over 64,400 farmers and ranchers that are voting members of Nebraska cooperatives with many members …

With No Deterrent Effect, The Wto Dispute Settlement Crisis Leaves Us Exporters Exposed, Especially Us Agriculture, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

The absence of a functioning Appellate Body at the World Trade Organization (WTO) leaves the dispute settlement mechanism weakened, and countries may be more likely to pursue their domestic policy goals in ways that restrict trade. Industries with relatively large export exposure like US agriculture will be particularly vulnerable in this new chaotic regime. The deterrent effect is more important than you think An integral part of the world trading system has been the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, which enables the WTO to enforce the rules the Members signed up for. Knowing you could get sued in the WTO for …

On The Market For "Lemons": When Low Quality Does Not Drive High Quality Out Of The Market, Konstantinos Giannakas, Murray E. Fulton

Cornhusker Economics

In a research article published in Nature's Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s4l 599-020-00658-w) we identify the conditions under which the introduction of a low -quality product does not drive its high-quality counterpart out of the market but, instead, ends-up coexisting with it. Using a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers in the context of a market for quality- ( or vertically-) differentiated products supplied by producers differing in their production efficiency, we show that the equilibrium quality configuration in a market depends on both the unobservability of product quality by consumers and the relative costs …

Don't Let The Past Sink Your Future, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Decision scientists have many algorithms for making decisions. These algorithms can be qualitative and subjective, such as following a 7-step process, to highly quantitative procedures like minimax regret, or linear programming. These techniques are very different from each other, but in one way they are very similar; they never, ever suggest the manager become emotional and use past decisions to guide the future.

Past decisions and events should guide decision-making. They help managers assign probabilities as well assessing performance. Viewing these events and situations as permanent paths is where sunk costs become problematic.

Includes discussions of four scenarios.

Perceptions Of The Economy And Employment In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Most rural Nebraskans believe most of the listed economic items will become worse or much worse over the next 12 months when asked in May and June. Almost nine in ten think the following will become worse: inflation, gasoline or diesel fuel prices, grocery prices, and interest rates. In fact, at least four in ten rural Nebraskans believe the following items will become much worse in the next 12 months: gasoline or diesel fuel prices, inflation, grocery prices, and healthcare costs. The two items that had less than one-half believing they would become worse or much worse during the next …

New Plant Engineering Techniques, R&D Investment And International Trade, Stéphan Marette, Anne-Célia Disdier, Anastasia Bodnar, John C. Beghin

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

New plant engineering techniques (NPETs) may significantly improve both production and quality of foods. Some consumers and regulators around the world might be reluctant to accept such products and the global market penetration of these products may remain low. We develop a parsimonious economic model for R&D investment in food innovations to identify conditions under which NPET technology emerges in the context of international trade. The framework integrates consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, the uncertainty of R&D processes, the associated regulatory cost of approval, and the competition between domestic and foreign products. With generic applicability, the …

The Storm In World Fertilizer Markets Continues, John C. Beghin

Cornhusker Economics

This article updates the recent article on world fertilizer markets by Beghin and Nogueira (2021), which noted the perfect storm affecting global fertilizer markets through high demand, droughts affecting fertilizer supply, high fossil energy prices, COVID 19-related supply-chain disruptions, and trade policies, all conspiring to elevate fertilizer nominal prices to levels not seen since 2008. In the last 10 months, the Ukraine-Russia war and associated trade sanctions have exacerbated the disruptions in fossil energy, grain, vegetable oil, and fertilizer markets already present in 2021. On the more hopeful side, some United States trade policy developments will help reduce US fertilizer …

Setting The Stage For The Next Farm Bill Debate, Bradley D. Lubben

Cornhusker Economics

The 2018 Farm Bill is set to expire in September 2023. New farm bill legislation will be needed by then if authority is to be extended for a wide range of programs from farm support to conservation, nutrition assistance, credit, trade promotion, rural development, research and education, and more.

The agricultural committees in Congress have already held initial hearings and many agricultural and other interest groups have noted their policy priorities. However, formal debate on a new farm bill is not expected to begin in earnest until early 2023 when a new session of Congress convenes.

While the formal debate …

Disagreements And Proper Respect In Farm/Ranch Succession, Allan Vyhnalek

Cornhusker Economics

Adapted from "Does Disrespect Have a Place in Your Ag Legacy?" Volume 6, Issue 1, February 2021, Ag Legacy, by Caleb Carter, consultant to the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics in the University of Wyoming College of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

Briefly covers disagreements and proper respect in farm/ranch succession.

Flexible Cropland Lease Arrangements Across Nebraska In 2022, Jim Jansen, Jeffrey Stokes

Cornhusker Economics

Survey results shown and discussed in this report are findings from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's 2022 Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Survey. Complete results from the survey may be found at the Nebraska Farm Real Estate website: http://cap.unl.edu/realestate.

Can Geopolitics Help Restore Missing Tools To The U.S. Trade Toolbox?, Matthew Schaefer

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

When U.S. trade negotiators and trade litigators seek to increase market access for U.S. goods and services abroad, they look in their toolbox to see what might be the best tool. The more well-stocked the toolbox, the more possibilities for increasing foreign market access. Today, when U.S. trade negotiators look in their toolbox, they see several traditional tools missing, specifically legally-binding, comprehensive (including tariff-cutting) regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and large package deals within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Their trade litigator colleagues face a similar circumstance of missing traditional tools, specifically the loss of binding two-level dispute …

Who Owns This? Ways That Property Can Be Owned And Transferred In Nebraska, Jessica Groskopf, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

Discusses ways that property can be owned and transferred in Nebraska in the context of farm management in Nebraska, United States.

Use Of Livestock Risk Protection Insurance For Cattle Continues To Grow, Jay Parsons

Cornhusker Economics

When used as a regular part of a market risk management plan, livestock risk protection (LRP) insurance can help protect profits in years where markets turn for the worse. The recent changes to the program have made LRP insurance more appealing to cattle producers and sales of LRP have subsequently increased dramatically. Strong price increases may make LRP unnecessary, but it is difficult to predict when the price increases will end. LRP insurance is a safety net, reducing downside price risk by providing a floor on national price expectations while also allowing producers to take advantage of higher national prices …

Consideration Of Nutrients Of Public Health Concern Highlighted In The Dietary Guidelines For Americans 2020–2025 Among A Large Sample Of Us Primary Shoppers, Christopher Gustafson, Devin Rose

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

The objective of this research is to estimate the proportion of consumers who consider nutrients identified in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2020-2025 (DGA) as being of public health concern during food choice using a large, population-weighted sample of U.S. residents. A question was included in a bi-monthly survey of consumer scanner panel members, asking whether respondents considered each of eight nutrients in a check-all-that-apply format. Four of these nutrients are under-consumed nutrients, while three are nutrients to avoid. Calories was additionally included, as over-consumption of calories causes weight gain. Weighted mean proportions and 95% confidence intervals were …

Active Consideration Of Future Health Can Be Prompted By Simple Health Messages And Improves Nutritional Quality Of Food Choices, Christopher R. Gustafson

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Many choices that people face daily have implications for future health and well-being. Choices about what foods to purchase and consume are one of the most frequent—and universal choices—that people must make. The ongoing rise of overweight and obesity rates—and associated diet-related diseases—in the US and many other countries illustrates the future health consequences of low-quality dietary choices. While a large body of research shows that individuals with a tendency to consider the future make a wide range of healthier decisions, research on limited attention and exogenous factors influencing choice suggests that attention to the future consequences of choices may …

Us Consumer Identification Of The Health Benefits Of Dietary Fiber And Consideration Of Fiber When Making Food Choices, Christopher Gustafson, Devin J. Rose

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

The purposes of this study were to (1) determine beliefs in the health benefits of dietary fiber, an under-consumed nutrient of public health concern, and (2) determine the relationship between beliefs about dietary fiber and consideration of fiber when making food choices. We conducted a nationally representative within-subject randomized online survey of 42,018 US primary shoppers in May–June 2021. Participants selected health benefits they believed were associated with consumption of fiber from a list of six benefits recognized by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), one indirect benefit, and one unrelated benefit. Respondents then indicated which nutrients, if any, they …

The Role Of Risk In Farmland Contract Choices, Chelsea Arnold, Jisang Yu, Mykel Taylor, Leah H. Palm-Forster, Simanti Banerjee

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Understanding the role of risk in farmland leasing contract choices is important to assess the welfare consequences of farm policies or environmental changes that affect production risk. We use a unique dataset of landowners and tenants in Kansas to examine the role of risk in their farmland leasing contract choices. We find that greater production risk and more risk-averse landowners encourage fixed cash rent contracts. As many variables can potentially affect contract choices, we use a penalized regression to show that the inclusion of relationship variables leads to little change in the main results.

Regional Minimums In The U.S. Beef Complex, Elliott James Dennis, Bradley Lubben

Center for Agricultural Profitability

This report shows how the currently proposed policies differ; shows how these policies have aligned with historical market behavior; provides alternative specifications to regional minimums; and suggests policy alternatives to regional minimums.

The main purpose of this report is to show how current and potential alternative specifications of regional minimums would have historically aligned with observed market behavior. However, the fundamental question in the debate of the validity and effectiveness of regional minimums first rests on whether robust price discovery has historically occurred over time and within each USDA-AMS region. If there has been a lack of price discovery during …

The Potential Cost Of Regulation Of Methane And Nitrous Oxide Emissions In U.S. Agriculture, Tshepelayi Kabata, Lilyan E. Fulginiti, Richard K. Perrin

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Background: Most studies on the environmental impacts of agriculture have attempted to measure environmental impacts but have not assessed the ability of the sector to reduce or mitigate such impacts. Only a few studies have examined greenhouse gas emissions from the sector. This paper assesses the ability of states in the U.S. to reduce agricultural emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, two major greenhouse gases (GHGs) with important global warming potential.

Methods: The analysis evaluates Färe’s PAC (pollution abatement cost) for each state and year, a measure of the potential opportunity costs of subjecting the sector to GHG …

Community Well-Being And Leadership In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Rural Nebraskans are less positive about the current change and expected future change in their communities this year. The proportion believing their community has changed for the better has typically been greater than the proportion believing it has changed for the worse. However, last year the proportion believing their community changed for the worse was slightly more than the proportion believing it had changed for the better (similar to what occurred in 2003 and 2009). This year, that gap widened a bit.

Despite that, rural Nebraskans are positive about their community by many different measures. Most rural Nebraskans rate their …

Views Of Well-Being In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

This year, rural Nebraskans are more pessimistic about their current situation than they’ve been in the past nine years. The proportion believing they are worse off than they were five years ago was 21 percent, up from the 11 percent reported last year. This is the highest level since 2013, when 26 percent believed they were worse off. This increase in pessimism did not translate into a decrease in optimism, however. This year, one-half of rural Nebraskans believe they are better off compared to five years ago, similar to 52 percent last year. The corresponding change occurred in a decrease …

How Do Consumers’ Beliefs About Product Price, Taste, And Health Affect Attention To Health-Differentiated Product-Sets?, Henriette Gitungwa, Christopher R. Gustafson

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Objectives: Consumers facemyriad food products in supermarkets, obviating consideration of all options. Consumers are likely to direct scarce attention to products they believe will provide them the best outcome. However, consumers may hold inaccurate beliefs— particularly about health attributes which can lead them to omit items from consideration that they would have optimally considered We examine how consumers’ beliefs about the relative price, taste, and healthiness of food product sets affect the healthiness of the set of products they consider.

Conclusions: Believes about relative differences in nutritional quality of foods importantly influence consideration of products, potentially perpetuating misconceptions about relative …

Comparative Performance Of Cooperative Equity Retirement Plans, Jeffrey S. Royer

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper compares the performance of revolving fund, percentage-of-all-equities, and base capital plans, and special plans for redeeming equity held by estates or based on member age. It also examines how the performance of the base capital plan is affected by changes in the base period, relaxing the equity requirements for underinvested members, and a variable cash patronage refund program. The base capital plan performs better than other systematic plans but places financial burdens on young members. Two modifications can mitigate that problem with only a slight diminution in performance. Special plans benefit cooperatives operating revolving fund plans the most.

Simulated Dataset Of Corn Response To Nitrogen Over Thousands Of Fields And Multiple Years In Illinois, German Mandrini, Sotirios V. Archontoulis, Cameron M. Pittelkow, Taro Mieno, Nicolas F. Martin

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer recommendations for corn (Zea mays L.) in the US Midwest have been a puzzle for several decades, without agreement among stakeholders for which methodology is the best to balance environmental and economic outcomes. Part of the reason is the lack of long-term data of crop responses to N over multiple fields since trial data is often limited in the number of soils and years it can explore. To overcome this limitation, we designed an analytical platform based on crop simulations run over millions of farming scenarios over extensive geographies. The database was calibrated and validated using data …

Causes And Consequences Of Fake Transparency/Excess Information In Food Claims, Susweta Ray, Konstantinos Giannakas

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

This study develops novel multi-stage game-theoretic models of heterogeneous firms and consumers in vertically differentiated food product markets with asymmetric information to analyze the economic causes and market and welfare consequences of excess information/ fake transparency in food labeling. Analytical results indicate that the firms’ incentives to adopt the excess information strategy, the Nash equilibrium configuration of firms adopting the strategy, and the market and welfare impacts of excess information are case-specific and dependent on the consumer reaction to excess information, the quality of the firms’ products, the degree of product differentiation between the brand producing firms, and whether the …

A Review Of Registrations For Over-The-Top Dicamba Products And Liability For State Governments For Appropriating Neighbors’ Right To Exclude, Terence J. Centner

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Injuries inflicted by spray applications of dicamba herbicides on neighboring properties have raised questions about the validity of the dicamba registrations and the adequacy of protection accorded others. An evaluation of the documentation used by the Environmental Protection Agency in approving the 2020 dicamba registrations discloses a lack of evidence supporting issuance of the registrations. In the lawsuit challenging the 2020 registra- tions, the court may decide they need to be vacated. While over-the-top dicamba products for use on soybeans and cotton have been beneficial in controlling weeds, their volatility has caused major offsite injuries. Neighboring property owners have the …

Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Highlights 2021-2022, Jim Jansen, Jeffrey Stokes

Nebraska Farm Real Estate Reports

Introduction

The Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Highlights 2021-2022 report represents the 44th edition of the annual series. These reports provide an important insight on agricultural land market dynamics for stakeholders across Nebraska. In today’s market, where market transactions exceeding $1 million dollars are the norm, objective market information and analysis is more critical than ever. The focus of the report continues to be on providing unbiased information for agricultural land values and rental rates so industry participants can make educated and informed decisions.

This year, the February 2022 survey of nearly 188 expert panel members from across the state …

Nonmetropolitan Nebraskans’ Opinions About Water, Climate, And Energy: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Most rural Nebraskans receive their home tap water from city water or municipal water systems. Just over two-thirds of rural Nebraskans receive their drinking water from a municipal system. One-quarter have private well water and seven percent are on a rural water system.

Many rural Nebraskans have tested their home tap water for nitrates. However, a similar proportion indicated they have not tested their water or are unsure. Persons with higher household incomes are more likely than persons with lower incomes to have tested their home water for each of the items listed. Many persons with the lowest household incomes …

The Economics Of A “Portion Size Reduction” Policy, Hanin Hosni, Konstantinos Giannakas

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

This study develops novel models of heterogeneous consumer preferences for different dining options and imperfect competition among food suppliers to analyze the market and welfare effects of portion size reduction (PSR) for food away from home. Different scenarios on the nature of differentiation of the dining options, the information available to consumers, and their response to links between portion size and obesity, food waste, and climate change are considered within this framework. The market and welfare effects of the policy are quantified using a simulation analysis. The analysis shows that the market and welfare effects of the policy are case-specific …