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Uncertainty

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Full-Text Articles in Business

Intangibles And Management Earnings Forecasts, Ashraf Khallaf, Yezen Kannan Jun 2024

Intangibles And Management Earnings Forecasts, Ashraf Khallaf, Yezen Kannan

All Works

We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’ likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance (MEF). We find that unrecognized intangibles (immediately expensed) are negatively associated with MEF issuance, while recognized intangibles (capitalized) show a positive association. These findings hold across various factors such as analysts’ coverage, industry type and for a subsample that excludes software firms permitted to capitalize software development costs under SFAS No. 86. In additional, we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of MEF issuance based on the characteristics of firm intangibility. We find a significant increase in the likelihood of MEF issuance for higher unrecognized …


Anatomical Depiction: How Showing A Product's Inner Structure Shapes Product Valuations, Seo Yoon Kang, Junghan Kim, Arun Lakshmanan May 2024

Anatomical Depiction: How Showing A Product's Inner Structure Shapes Product Valuations, Seo Yoon Kang, Junghan Kim, Arun Lakshmanan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Anatomical depiction is a technique where the product is decomposed into components that are spatially arranged in a layer-by-layer manner to visually explicate its inner structure. The authors demonstrate that anatomical depiction, compared to non-anatomical depiction, enhances product valuation. This effect occurs because anatomical depiction elicits a ‘coming together’ of the inner components in consumers’ minds thereby evoking a gestalt image of the product – a process labeled simulated assemblage. The elicitation of simulated assemblage in turn boosts their confidence in the product’s performance. Two field experiments first demonstrate that anatomical depiction leads to greater engagement in online settings such …


Adapting To A Renewed Collective Culture Through A Change In Organizational Behavior, Peter Bheda Aug 2023

Adapting To A Renewed Collective Culture Through A Change In Organizational Behavior, Peter Bheda

Journal of Global Hospitality and Tourism

The dynamic interplay between organizational behavior and cultural transformation is paramount in the ever-evolving landscape of hospitality leadership. As the hospitality industry adapts to post-pandemic shifts, executives grapple with managing successful companies while ensuring effective employee engagement. While profitability surged for many, managing employees remains a complex challenge. Cultivating a thriving culture is a critical solution. Toxic cultures incur tangible and intangible costs, impacting revenues, employee retention, and productivity. The pandemic has underscored the urgency of cultural alignment, prompting leaders to rethink behavior patterns. Engaging leaders across hierarchies as "chief culture officers" promotes accountability, openness, alignment, and leverage, fostering a …


Times Of Uncertainty: The Psychological And Behavioral Impact Of Employment Uncertainty On Furloughed Workers And The Moderating Effect Of Work Orientation, Jack Haoyue Zhang May 2023

Times Of Uncertainty: The Psychological And Behavioral Impact Of Employment Uncertainty On Furloughed Workers And The Moderating Effect Of Work Orientation, Jack Haoyue Zhang

Olin Business School Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Although furloughs have been used by organizations for some time, their use increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. They differ from layoffs in the uncertainty they involve around the employment relationship. However, the phenomenon has received little attention from research on involuntary job loss, and the impact of the employment uncertainty it involves is largely unknown. Furthermore, the moderating factors that differentiate the impacts across employee populations are also unclear. In this dissertation I report a mixed-method field study examining the impact of employment uncertainty on furloughed workers and the moderating role by their work orientation. To guide the development …


Times Of Uncertainties Require Embracing Leadership And Feedback, Alexander Lapshun, Gene E. Fusch Mar 2023

Times Of Uncertainties Require Embracing Leadership And Feedback, Alexander Lapshun, Gene E. Fusch

The Qualitative Report

Mid-level managers of multinational corporations often struggle to find a leadership style that helps build a high-performance organizational culture. This paper discusses the research question of what strategies some mid-level managers in a multinational corporation in Asia employ to create a high-performance organizational culture. The authors chose six mid-level managers of a multinational Fortune 500 IT corporation in Singapore to participate in this case study research blended with techniques of miniethnography. The authors looked for qualities and approaches required for leaders to build and lead their teams to high-performance standards in times of uncertainty. The study concluded that successful leaders …


Rogue Entrepreneurship, Russ Mcbride, Mark D. Packard, Brent B. Clark Jan 2023

Rogue Entrepreneurship, Russ Mcbride, Mark D. Packard, Brent B. Clark

Marketing & Entrepreneurship Faculty Publications

We suggest a new category of “rogue entrepreneurship,” that describes entrepreneurial activity where the core business idea violates established or expert consensus, to be contrasted with “conforming entrepreneurship,” where it does not. There are large entrepreneurial rents hidden behind a bulwark of expert consensus that predicts doom for a venture based upon a rogue and unlikely claim. The “rogue” cases, where the predominant assessment context is different from the entrepreneur’s, result in broad skepticism against the entrepreneurial claim. We explain what rogue entrepreneurship is and how it works.

“What important truth do very few people agree with you on? A …


Emotional Intelligence Among Nigerian Construction Project Leaders During Periods Of Uncertainty, Ibrahim Hassan Mashi Jan 2023

Emotional Intelligence Among Nigerian Construction Project Leaders During Periods Of Uncertainty, Ibrahim Hassan Mashi

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Some construction project leaders in Nigeria have exhibited leadership ineffectiveness during periods of uncertainty due to a lack of emotional intelligence (EI) engagement. This has led to poor performance of construction projects in Nigeria. The purpose of this qualitative exploratory case study was to explore the engagement of EI in enhancing leadership effectiveness among construction project leaders in Nigeria during periods of uncertainty. Fifteen participants involving construction project leaders were selected through purposeful sampling from five construction firms in Abuja, Nigeria. The target participants were specifically chosen for their expertise and experience to ensure that the information created is relevant …


Emotional Intelligence Among Nigerian Construction Project Leaders During Periods Of Uncertainty, Ibrahim Hassan Mashi Jan 2023

Emotional Intelligence Among Nigerian Construction Project Leaders During Periods Of Uncertainty, Ibrahim Hassan Mashi

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Some construction project leaders in Nigeria have exhibited leadership ineffectiveness during periods of uncertainty due to a lack of emotional intelligence (EI) engagement. This has led to poor performance of construction projects in Nigeria. The purpose of this qualitative exploratory case study was to explore the engagement of EI in enhancing leadership effectiveness among construction project leaders in Nigeria during periods of uncertainty. Fifteen participants involving construction project leaders were selected through purposeful sampling from five construction firms in Abuja, Nigeria. The target participants were specifically chosen for their expertise and experience to ensure that the information created is relevant …


Accounting Reporting Complexity, Audit Engagement Partner Mandatory Rotation, And Audit Quality, Clement Chen, Zhenfeng Liu, Wenye Tang, Ling Tuo Jan 2023

Accounting Reporting Complexity, Audit Engagement Partner Mandatory Rotation, And Audit Quality, Clement Chen, Zhenfeng Liu, Wenye Tang, Ling Tuo

Accounting Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the influence of a firm's accounting reporting complexity (ARC) on financial statement audit quality. We predict and find that there is a non‐linear relationship between a firm's ARC and audit quality. Specifically, a more complex accounting environment—measured by ARC—leads to higher quality audits, but this effect diminishes when ARC continues to increase. Further analyses reveal that the effect is more salient among client firms that do not purchase non‐audit services (NAS). We also examine whether ARC affects audit quality in the circumstance of mandatory audit partner rotation. Empirical results show a moderating effect of ARC on the …


Adaptive Learning Gain In Asset Pricing, Sedealy Juste Lokossou Jan 2023

Adaptive Learning Gain In Asset Pricing, Sedealy Juste Lokossou

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This paper delves into the complexities of asset pricing, emphasizing the need to go beyond prevailing paradigms and constant learning gain assumptions. We examine the influence of personal experiences, adaptive learning processes, and subjective return expectations on asset pricing. By incorporating the concept of time-varying learning gain, we provide a more realistic portrayal of asset pricing. Empirical analysis reveals a consistent negative correlation between experienced real payout growth and subsequent returns, indicating counter-cyclical behavior. Our findings also support the mean-reversion hypothesis in stock returns, although caution is needed due to some scenarios lacking statistical significance. Theoretical exploration uncovers that higher …


The Dynamics Of Entrepreneurial Networking Logics: Evidence From United Kingdom High-Tech Start-Ups, Joanne Jin Zhang, Charles Baden-Fuller, Jing Zhang Oct 2022

The Dynamics Of Entrepreneurial Networking Logics: Evidence From United Kingdom High-Tech Start-Ups, Joanne Jin Zhang, Charles Baden-Fuller, Jing Zhang

Management Faculty Publications

Purpose – This study aims to explore how entrepreneurial firms’ networking logics may change under different types of perceived uncertainty. The arrival of new knowledge from the entrepreneurial firm’s network may alter the perceived technology and market uncertainty that in turn determines how the firm adopts or combines the two opposing logics of causation and effectuation. Focusing on the roles of external advisors recruited by the firms, the study probes the details of the cyclical process and the mechanism through which networking logics are altered.

Design/methodology/approach – In this study the authors conducted a 3-year longitudinal multiple case study of …


Distinguishing Unpredictability From Uncertainty In Entrepreneurial Action Theory, Ryan W. Angus, Mark D. Packard, Brent B. Clark Jul 2022

Distinguishing Unpredictability From Uncertainty In Entrepreneurial Action Theory, Ryan W. Angus, Mark D. Packard, Brent B. Clark

Marketing & Entrepreneurship Faculty Publications

The traditional view that perceived and archival uncertainty measures are substitutable proxies for “true” environmental (entrepreneurial) uncertainty presumes an “all-seeing eye.” Adopting a representationalist epistemology, we distinguish environmental (objective) unpredictability from entrepreneurs’ subjective uncertainty, which has so far been theoretically confounded. It is, in fact, possible for an entrepreneur to be highly certain despite excessive unpredictability and vice versa. Theoretically distinguishing these constructs has fundamental implications for entrepreneurial action theory. For example, because intentional action is consciously originated, unpredictability influences action only indirectly, while uncertainty has direct effects. Outcomes, on the other hand, are directly affected by the complexity and …


Times Of Uncertainty: The Psychological And Behavioral Impact Of Employment Uncertainty On Furloughed Workers And The Moderating Effect Of Work Orientation, Jack Haoyue Zhang May 2022

Times Of Uncertainty: The Psychological And Behavioral Impact Of Employment Uncertainty On Furloughed Workers And The Moderating Effect Of Work Orientation, Jack Haoyue Zhang

Olin Business School Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Although furloughs have been used by organizations for some time, their use increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. They differ from layoffs in the uncertainty they involve around the employment relationship. However, the phenomenon has received little attention from research on involuntary job loss, and the impact of the employment uncertainty it involves is largely unknown. Furthermore, the moderating factors that differentiate the impacts across employee populations are also unclear. In this dissertation I report a mixed-method field study examining the impact of employment uncertainty on furloughed workers and the moderating role by their work orientation. To guide the development …


History Matters: The Impact Of Online Customer Reviews Across Product Generations, Linyi Li, Shyam Gopinath, Stephen J. Carson May 2022

History Matters: The Impact Of Online Customer Reviews Across Product Generations, Linyi Li, Shyam Gopinath, Stephen J. Carson

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine how online customer reviews for one generation of a product affect sales of another generation in the same product series. The main intriguing result is that previous generation valence has a positive impact on current generation sales; however, current generation valence has a negative impact on previous generation sales. The positive impact of previous generation valence becomes even stronger (1) as the uncertainty (standard deviation) in reviews for the current generation increases and (2) when the current generation valence is high. In contrast, it becomes weaker (1) as the uncertainty in reviews for the previous generation increases and …


Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainity On Key Economic Indicators Of India, Shireen Rosario Apr 2022

Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainity On Key Economic Indicators Of India, Shireen Rosario

Management Dynamics

Purpose: With the help of the newly developed Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, this paper attempts to find the influence if any, of the EPU on stock markets and certain key economic indicators in India. Methodology /Approach: The focus is on the influence of EPU on the stock markets, industrial production, new capital issues, exports and bank credit to commercial sector. Monthly data of economic indicators is collected for 66 months from January 2014 and tested with OLS and Quantile regression. Findings: It is observed that stock market, Industrial Production, new capital issues and bank credit are negatively related to …


The Acquisition Of Capabilities: How Firms Use Dynamic And Ordinary Capabilities To Manage Uncertainty, Kris Irwin, Collin Gilstrap, Paul Drnevich, Manoj Sunny Jan 2022

The Acquisition Of Capabilities: How Firms Use Dynamic And Ordinary Capabilities To Manage Uncertainty, Kris Irwin, Collin Gilstrap, Paul Drnevich, Manoj Sunny

Management Faculty Publications

How organizations utilize capabilities to achieve competitive advantage and improve performance has received an abundance of scholarly attention. Both ordinary and dynamic capabilities (DC) enable organizations to achieve higher performance when leveraged appropriately and under favorable conditions. The complexity of an organization's motives for why and how different capabilities are acquired drives us further to explore what complementarities organizations might achieve and under what contexts. Specifically, we explore how firms engaging in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to acquire dynamic and/or ordinary capabilities experience different market reactions and levels of short- and long-run value creation given environmental uncertainty. Our results support …


Locating Uncertainty In Hospital Leader Sensemaking And Sensegiving Of Organizational Change: A Single Case Study, Sara E. Barry Jan 2022

Locating Uncertainty In Hospital Leader Sensemaking And Sensegiving Of Organizational Change: A Single Case Study, Sara E. Barry

Antioch University Full-Text Dissertations & Theses

Leaders planning strategic change face significant ambiguity and uncertainty due to the complex, fast-paced, and volatile nature of organizational life. What one leader sees as an opportunity, another may view as a threat depending on their past experiences, their existing mental models, and their perceptions of uncertainty. Sensemaking and sensegiving theories provide a framework for how leaders retrospectively make sense of new and disorienting information through recursive cycles of interpretation, action, and learning, and seek to influence the meaning-making of others towards a shared vision of the strategic change. Despite decades of research using these theories, studies have yet to …


Quality Of Financial Information And Accounting Considerations During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Maria Markova, Georgi Hristov Oct 2021

Quality Of Financial Information And Accounting Considerations During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Maria Markova, Georgi Hristov

UBT International Conference

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed numerous difficulties before business entities and thus before accounting professionals. The paper summarizes the main issues financial reporting faces during the pandemic with respect to the quality of the financial information provided by the financial statements of the entities. The main quality characteristics of useful financial information are brought to light in the context of the impediments posed by the COVID-19 crisis.

Different aspects of financial reporting are discussed: the implications on the going concern principle; the effects on accounting judgements and estimates; events after the reporting period. The paper provides real-life examples for the …


Information Search In Times Of Market Uncertainty: An Examination Of Aggregate And Disaggregate Uncertainty, Marshall A. Geiger, Rajib Hasan, Abdullah Kumas, Joyce Van Der Van Der Laan Smith Jul 2021

Information Search In Times Of Market Uncertainty: An Examination Of Aggregate And Disaggregate Uncertainty, Marshall A. Geiger, Rajib Hasan, Abdullah Kumas, Joyce Van Der Van Der Laan Smith

Accounting Faculty Publications

Purpose – This study explores the association between individual investor information demand and two measures of market uncertainty – aggregate market uncertainty and disaggregate industry-specific market uncertainty. It extends the literature by being the first to empirically examine investor information demand and disaggregate market uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper constructs a measure of information search by using the Google Search Volume Index and computes measures of aggregate and disaggregate market uncertainty using institutional investors’ trading data from Ancerno Ltd. The relation between market uncertainty, as measured by trading disagreements among institutional investors, and information search is analyzed using an OLS …


Terrorism Hazard And Infrastructure Projects: The Moderating Role Of Home Experience And Institutions, Alfredo Jiménez, Nathaniel C. Lupton Jul 2021

Terrorism Hazard And Infrastructure Projects: The Moderating Role Of Home Experience And Institutions, Alfredo Jiménez, Nathaniel C. Lupton

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism hazard on the performance of private participation infrastructure projects. Applying transaction cost theory, we hypothesize that terrorism hazard has a negative relationship with infrastructure project completion, and that host government accountability and investor experience with terrorism hazard have opposing impacts on this relationship. Host government accountability, we argue, produces higher indirect costs of managing terrorism hazard, which reduces investor confidence, and reinforces the negative relationship between terrorism hazard and the probability of satisfactory project completion. Conversely, investor’s experience with terrorism hazard increases investor confidence and hence partially mitigates the negative consequences of terrorism …


Pressure To Be Creative: How Employees Respond To Organizational Creativity Pressure, Hye Jung Eun May 2021

Pressure To Be Creative: How Employees Respond To Organizational Creativity Pressure, Hye Jung Eun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Creativity and innovation are vital for organizational growth and success, driving many organizations to increase pressure for employee creativity. Yet, researchers have neglected investigating how employees respond to creativity pressure at the workplace. This dissertation introduces and develops a new scale for the concept of organizational creativity pressure – the pressure on employees to continually develop novel and useful ideas and solutions. The scale is further validated through extensive assessment of content and construct validity, empirically differentiating the construct from similar others such as performance pressure and support for creativity.

Drawing on the transactional theory of stress (Lazarus & Folkman, …


Cash Infusion Uncertainty: Hindrances To Northeast United States Small Business Owners Desiring Growth, Carol Bartlo May 2021

Cash Infusion Uncertainty: Hindrances To Northeast United States Small Business Owners Desiring Growth, Carol Bartlo

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This qualitative case study explored how cash infusion uncertainty impacted small business owners’ growth goals and strategies. Small business owners navigate varying business environments and use tactics or long-term strategies as they desire to grow. Scenario planning is a tool that entrepreneurs can use for understanding past events or trends to identify actions for managing uncertainties and turbulent business environments or capitalize on opportunities. Potential themes of this study’s research were the presence of cash infusion uncertainty for small business owners, that uncertainty hindered small business owners’ desired growth, and that strategic planning aided growth attainment. The interview data were …


Bank Liquidity Creation And Systemic Risk, Destan Kirimhan Apr 2021

Bank Liquidity Creation And Systemic Risk, Destan Kirimhan

Theses and Dissertations

My dissertation includes three essays on bank liquidity creation and systemic risk. In the first essay, we examine the role of distracted institutional investors in banks in one of the most comprehensive measures of bank output, bank liquidity creation. We employ institutional investor distraction measure developed by Kempf et al. (2017). With a sample of publicly listed U.S. banks over the period of 1986-2016, we find that as institutional investors become more distracted, banks create more liquidity on the asset-side and off-balance sheet side. These results are stronger for large banks relative to small banks and are more pronounced during …


Reliance On Algorithmic Evidence: The Joint Influence Of Measurement Uncertainty And Algorithm Adaptability, Jenny Ulla Jan 2021

Reliance On Algorithmic Evidence: The Joint Influence Of Measurement Uncertainty And Algorithm Adaptability, Jenny Ulla

Theses and Dissertations--Accountancy

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems’ capability is rapidly expanding to perform complex tasks once reserved only for humans. With machine learning algorithms, AI can learn and adapt as it encounters more data, which has enabled these systems to improve the quality of accounting estimates that traditionally have been more difficult for humans. Although AI systems’ capability to adapt has potential benefits, these systems also have become increasingly complex, making it difficult for individuals to understand the processes or algorithms these systems use to produce advice. Practitioners worry that when algorithms behave like “black boxes” this opacity may lead to a lack …


Applying Singapore Airline’S Human Resource Management Strategy For Service Excellence At Pakistan International Airline, Abdul Basit Sami Shaikh, Fahad Habib, Muhammad Zulfiqar Hadi, Osama Ahmed Jan 2021

Applying Singapore Airline’S Human Resource Management Strategy For Service Excellence At Pakistan International Airline, Abdul Basit Sami Shaikh, Fahad Habib, Muhammad Zulfiqar Hadi, Osama Ahmed

MBA Research Projects

The purpose of the study was to develop human resource management strategy for service excellence at Pakistan International Airline (PIA). We studied HRM strategy of various airlines and chose Singapore International Airline’s (SIA) HRM strategy due to in depth study by researchers for over ten years. Further, the similarities between PIA and SIA as both are state owned and both of their states got freed from British rule.

Through our secondary research and literature review, we learned that SIA’s HRM strategy stands on five cornerstones 1) Stringent Recruitment & Selection 2) Training & Retraining 3) High performance Service Delivery Teams …


Uncertainty Due To Infectious Diseases And Stock–Bond Correlation, Konstantinos Gkillas, Christoforos Konstantatos, Costas Siriopoulos Jan 2021

Uncertainty Due To Infectious Diseases And Stock–Bond Correlation, Konstantinos Gkillas, Christoforos Konstantatos, Costas Siriopoulos

All Works

We study the non-linear causal relation between uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases and stock–bond correlation. To this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ a nonlinear Granger causality test with the use of artificial neural networks so as to investigate the predictability of this type of uncertainty on realized stock–bond correlation and jumps. Our findings reveal that uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases has significant predictive value on the changes of the stock–bond relation.


Uncertainty > Risk: Lessons For Legal Thought From The Insurance Runoff Market, Tom Baker Jan 2021

Uncertainty > Risk: Lessons For Legal Thought From The Insurance Runoff Market, Tom Baker

All Faculty Scholarship

Insurance ideas inform legal thought: from tort law, to health law and financial services regulation, to theories of distributive justice. Within that thought, insurance is conceived as an ideal type in which insurers distribute determinable risks through contracts that fix the parties’ obligations in advance. This ideal type has normative appeal, among other reasons because it explains how tort law might achieve in practice the objectives of tort theory. This ideal type also supports a restrictive vision of liability-based regulation that opposes expansions and supports cutbacks, on the grounds that uncertainty poses an existential threat to insurance markets.

Prior work …


Essay 1: How We Feel: The Role Of Macro-Economic Sentiment In Advertising Spending-Sales Relationship; Essay 2: It Was The Best Of Times; It Was The Worst Of Times: The Effect Of Emotional Uncertainty And Arousal On Healthy Food Choices, Leila Khoshghadam Apr 2020

Essay 1: How We Feel: The Role Of Macro-Economic Sentiment In Advertising Spending-Sales Relationship; Essay 2: It Was The Best Of Times; It Was The Worst Of Times: The Effect Of Emotional Uncertainty And Arousal On Healthy Food Choices, Leila Khoshghadam

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

Essay 1: Controversies regarding the advertising spending-sales relationship have spawned many studies in marketing. Previous research on macroeconomic influencers of this relationship has focused mostly on objective macroeconomic indicators such as cyclical contraction and expansion. Extending these previous studies, the current research argues that sales response to advertising is also contingent upon the pervasive feelings present in the macroeconomic environment, above and beyond the influence from objective macroeconomic factors. Specifically, it argues that future outlook negativity and uncertainty in macroeconomic sentiment can affect the ad spending-sales relationship. Analyzing sales and advertising spending data for salty snacks in conjunction with macroeconomic …


Relationship Between Risk Identification, Risk Response, And Project Success, Marsha Marinich Jan 2020

Relationship Between Risk Identification, Risk Response, And Project Success, Marsha Marinich

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

AbstractProjects are used to implement the organization's strategic goals, but high failure rates reduce projects' effectiveness in successfully achieving goals. High failure rates reduce project managers’ effectiveness of projects in successfully achieving goals. Senior leaders and project managers are unable to deliver successful projects due to unmanaged risks. Grounded in expected utility theory, the purpose of this quantitative correlational study was to examine the relationship between risk identification, risk responses, and project success. A survey was created in SurveyMonkey® and distributed on LinkedIn. Survey responses were analyzed from 71 project managers with at least five years of experience in Washington, …


Asymmetric Impact Of Earnings News On Investor Uncertainty, Zihang Peng, David Johnstone, Demetris Christodoulou Jan 2020

Asymmetric Impact Of Earnings News On Investor Uncertainty, Zihang Peng, David Johnstone, Demetris Christodoulou

Faculty of Business - Papers (Archive)

We describe a model that predicts an asymmetric impact of disclosure on investor uncertainty. We show that good news tends to resolve more uncertainty than bad news, and that uncertainty can be revised upwards if the investors' prior belief is sufficiently strong and the signal is sufficiently bad. This result is in contrast to classical disclosure models, where new information always resolves uncertainty and the change in uncertainty depends only on the relative precision of the news. Using option‐implied volatility as a proxy for uncertainty, we find strong support for our predictions. We also show that our results are robust …