Business Commons^™

Fixed Income Fund Report, December 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Equity Fund Monthly Report, December 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Essays In Mutual Funds, Aadhaar Verma

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

This dissertation examines mutual fund portfolio formation, the economic forces that determine how fund managers construct their portfolios, and the market effects of fund portfolio disclosures.

In the first chapter of my dissertation, I study how funds modify their portfolios around disclosure dates in order to cater to their investors’ non-financial preferences. Using social norms and investor boycotts surrounding tobacco and firearm sectors as a proxy for non-financial preferences, I find that these stocks experience significant negative returns on portfolio disclosure dates and significant positive returns on the day after the portfolio disclosure. I also find that funds accelerate their …

Forecasting Stock Market Prices: A Machine Learning Approach, Abraham Alhomadi

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

There has been extensive literature written about the efficiency of the stock market. Practitioners and academicians have debated whether investors can exploit publicly available information to generate excess returns. Clearly predicting the stock market’s return with high accuracy has been enormously difficult, but we are interested in contributing to the continuous exploration of the efficiency of the stock market using machine learning techniques. We also want to examine the relationship between our dataset’s macroeconomic indicators and foreign nations’ stock markets with our target feature—the S&P 500. In this paper, we will be using supervised machine learning models, like Linear Regression, …

Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This thesis examines the efficacy of alternative modeling techniques to predict stock market returns modeled with time-varying coefficients with the goal of developing and implementing a trading strategy that yields excess returns. First, we determine the modeling technique with the smallest forecast error using historical predictors: the differenced dividend-price ratio, lagged S&P 500 returns, and the change in implied volatility. The candidate modeling techniques include both constant and recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods and diverges from previous return forecast literature with the comparison of a state-space model (SSM) cast as a VAR(1) process to each OLS technique. The …

Bundled Earnings Guidance And Analysts' Forecast Revisions, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Bundling managerial earnings guidance with quarterly earnings announcements (EAs) has become an increasingly common practice. This study investigates the impact of bundled guidance on analysts' forecast revisions. Our findings indicate that analysts respond more to bundled guidance than non-bundled guidance. This effect increases with analysts' time pressure and cognitive constraints around the EA. Analysts' revisions also incorporate more of the bundled management guidance when accompanied by additional information, such as conference calls. We further find that analysts revise their forecasts more quickly following bundled guidance than non-bundled guidance. Together, these findings are consistent with the notion that analysts place more …

Do Esg Funds Deliver On Their Promises?, Quinn Curtis, Jill E. Fisch, Adriana Z. Robertson

All Faculty Scholarship

Corporations have received growing criticism for their role in climate change, perpetuating racial and gender inequality, and other pressing social issues. In response to these concerns, shareholders are increasingly focusing on environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) criteria in selecting investments, and asset managers are responding by offering a growing number of ESG mutual funds. The flow of assets into ESG is one of the most dramatic trends in asset management.

But are these funds giving investors what they promise? This question has attracted the attention of regulators, with the Department of Labor and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) …

Equity Fund Monthly Report, November 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Joint News, Attention Spillover, And Market Returns Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze over 2.6 million news articles and propose a novel measure of joint news coverage of firms. The measure strongly and negatively predicts market returns, with a monthly R-squared of 3.93% in sample and 6.52% out of sample. The relation is causal, robust to existing predictors, and is especially strong when market uncertainty is high or when market frictions are large. At the firm level, joint news coverage is associated with a 20.3% increase in EDGAR downloads by new IPs from the investor bases of the other covered firms. Our evidence suggests that joint news triggers investor attention spillover …

Fixed Income Fund Report, November 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Data Analytics And Audit Quality, Ru Gao, Sterling Huang, Rencheng Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine the impact of data analytics on audit quality. Using hand-collected information on data analytics skills of employees of audit firms, we find that human capital investment in data analytics improves audit quality. The analytics capability of both frontline and back-office employees contributes to audit quality. The effect is more pronounced for audit clients with complex business operations, for clients with complicated accounting estimates, and for clients that are more digitalized. Taken together, our findings suggest that an audit office’s analytics capability represents an important office attribute that can affect audit quality.

A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach To Portfolio Selection: An Application To The Blue Chip Stocks In The Philippine Stock Exchange (2010-2019), Vishal Bhagia, Colleen Monica K. Chiu, Paulynne J. Castillo, Roberto B. Raymundo, Joel Q. Tanchuco

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

There has been a growing interest in the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a nonparametric approach in portfolio optimization due to its flexibility in overcoming the limitations of the conventional mean-variance portfolio (MVP) model. Therefore, this study aims to validate the allocative efficiency of the DEA cross-efficiency model using blue chip stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2019. This study finds that the proposed model is able to distinguish a unique set of best-performing stocks across each holding period and outperforms the MVP more consistently. The results of this study suggest that the proposed DEA …

Mutual Fund Stewardship And The Empty Voting Problem, Jill E. Fisch

All Faculty Scholarship

When Roberta Karmel wrote the articles that are the subject of this symposium, she was skeptical of both the potential value of shareholder voting and the emerging involvement of institutional investors in corporate governance. In the ensuing years, both the increased role and engagement of institutional investors and the heightened importance of shareholder voting offer new reasons to take Professor Karmel’s concerns seriously. Institutional investors have taken on a broader range of issues ranging from diversity and political spending to climate change and human capital management, and their ability to influence corporate policy on these issues has become more significant. …

Ucimco Stock Selection Semi-Annual Presentation, Fall 2021, Michael Buck, Stevie Benson, Walker Hamilton, Mason Jolivette, Harrison Lorenc, Devin Molina, Stephen Schoenborn, Jack Shimer, Mohammad Sufyan, John Wagner, Riley Yee

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. This presentation, by the stock selection team, examines quarterly performance and strategy while discussing the most recent selections in the portfolio: Agios Pharmaceuticals, CubeSmart, Splunk and Nexstar Media Group.

Esg And The Market Return, Ran Chang, Liya Chu, Jun Tu, Bohui Zhang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) index. We find that it has significant power in predicting the stock market risk premium, both in- and out-of-sample, and delivers sizable economic gains for mean-variance investors in asset allocation. Although the index is extracted by using the PLS method, its predictability is robust to using alternative machine learning tools. We find further that the aggregate of environmental variables captures short-term forecasting power, while that of social or governance captures long-term. The predictive power of the ESG index stems from both cash flow and discount rate channels.

Tracking Retail Investor Activity, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide an easy method to identify marketable retail purchases and sales using recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 bps over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalance is attributable to order flow persistence, while the rest cannot be explained by contrarian trading (proxy for liquidity provision) or public news sentiment. There is suggestive, but only suggestive, evidence that retail marketable orders might contain firm-level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.

Non-Gaap Earnings And Stock Price Crash Risk, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang, Benjamin C. Whipple

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We investigate whether non-GAAP earnings disclosures increase stock price crash risk. Consistent with non-GAAP disclosures allowing managers to inflate investors’ perceptions about firm performance, our results indicate that income increasing non-GAAP reporting increases crash risk. We also find that managers can use non-GAAP reporting as a substitute for earnings management to withhold bad news from investors (the traditional explanation for crashes). Finally, we find a positive association between non-GAAP reporting and the likelihood of subsequent events that can trigger a crash. Overall, our evidence is consistent with some non-GAAP disclosures exposing investors to risks of large and sudden price declines.

The Profitability Of Warrant Issuers: An Empirical Investigation Of Single Stock And Index Warrants, Ichaya Wongnapakarn, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol, Pattarawan Prasarnphanich, Eakapat Manitkajornkit

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the derivative warrant's profit of issuers compensated with the risk from issuing call and put derivative warrants because they have commitments in risk management and managing risk by hedging the underlying exposure. The average profit of issuers is a cumulative profit from the first trading day until the last trading day. Consistent with the imperfect competition for issuing put derivative warrants on single stock from different securities borrowing and lending advantages, the profit margin of a put warrant is higher than the call warrant. However, the profit margin from a put warrant is not necessarily higher than …

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Fall 2021, Scott Deacle, Maureen Cumpstone, Zachary Crebbin, Maddy Sorokanych, Michael Buck, Kareem Elghawy

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this issue:

Letter from Madelynn Sorokanych '22

Letter from Michael Buck '22

At a Glance

Investment Strategies

Endowment at Work

UCIMCO Updates

Notable Trends

Semester Investment Performance

Endowment Outlook

Stock Selection Picks

Women's Fund Picks

Our Team

Special Thanks

Supporters

How to Contribute

Ucimco Endowment Semi-Annual Presentation, Fall 2021, Kareem Elghawy, Kyle Blaze, Jeremy Calabro, Ryan Carkhuff, Jacob Connelly, Christopher Craven, Zachary Crebbin, Olivia Defusco, Colin Holtzman, Brooke Hurley, Matthew Mcmahon, Jared Minnichbach, Zoey Nikolaou, Jared O'Connell, Erik Ojert, Thomas Pancheri, Christopher Porzelt, Tyler Sargent, Scott Sloan, Storm Snape, Matthew Snyder, Matthew Tuley

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. This presentation, by the endowment team, examines performance and investment philosophy while discussing selections in the portfolio including: developed and emerging market equities, U.S. equities, corporate bonds, U.S. treasuries and U.S. real estate.

Ursinus College Women's Investment Management Company, Fall 2021, Maddy Sorokanych, Taylor Beaumont, Shelby Boyle, Laura Bradley, Olivia Defusco, Rachel Grossbauer, Jess Gutekunst, Rebecca Lewis, Alice Nathanson, Madelyn Nau, Ketlee Staz, Marcella Thanh-Guyet, Theodora Zeibekis

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. In 2020, a group of women students began to manage their own fund. This presentation reviews activities of the Fall 2021 semester and analyzes the stock performance of various companies including: Anthem, Inc., American Well Corporation, Netflix, Travel and Leisure Company, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Oshkosh and the Hershey Company.

Fixed Income Fund Report, October 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Equity Fund Monthly Report, October 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Does Industry Timing Ability Of Hedge Funds Predict Their Future Performance, Survival, And Fund Flows?, Turan G. Bali, Stephen J. Brown, Mustafa O. Caglayan, Umut Celiker

Business Faculty Publications

This paper investigates hedge funds’ ability to time industry-specific returns and shows that funds’ timing ability in the manufacturing industry improves their future performance, probability of survival, and ability to attract more capital. The results indicate that the best industry-timing hedge funds in the manufacturing sector have the highest return exposure to earnings surprises. This, together with persistently sticky earnings surprises, transparent information environment in regards to earnings releases, and large post-earnings-announcement drift in the manufacturing industry, explain to a great extent why best-timing hedge funds can generate significantly larger future returns compared to worst-timing hedge funds.

Inside Brokers, Frank Weikai Li, Abhiroop Mukherjee, Rik Sen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We identify the broker each corporate insider trades through, and find that analysts and mutual fund managers affiliated with such “inside brokers” have a substantial information advantage on the insider’s firm. Affiliated analysts issue more accurate earnings forecasts, and affiliated mutual funds trade the insider’s stock more profitably than their peers, following insider trades through their brokerage. Notably, this advantage persists well after these insider trades are publicly disclosed. Our results challenge the prevalent perception that information asymmetry arising from insider trading is acute only before trade disclosure, and suggest that brokers facilitating these trades are in a position to …

A Dynamic Delegated Investment Model Of Spacs, Dan Luo, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study SPACs in a continuous-time delegated investment model. Our model is built upon three unique features of SPACs: the sponsor and the investor are only partially aligned, a SPAC has a short time horizon, and the investor has the final control over investment approval. Due to the misalignment in incentives, the sponsor has an increasing incentive to propose unprofitable projects to the investor; in response, the investor exerts more stringent screening based on her information. Although the screening helps curb the sponsor’s moral hazard, it also dampens the disciplining effect of partial alignment in incentives. When the investor’s information …

Fixed Income Fund Report, September 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Equity Fund Monthly Report, September 2021, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Investment Behavior During Covid Pandemic: An Evidence From Emerging Asian Markets, Sana Tauseef

Business Review

This study investigates the investor behavior in Asian emerging markets during the COVID pandemic period and assesses the asymmetric patterns and the influence of global and regional return dynamics on local investor behavior. It uses daily firm-level data from January 2001 to December 2020 for nine Asian emerging countries: China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand to estimate the impact of extreme price movements, market liquidity and US and Chinese market returns on local return dispersions using a non-linear specification. The findings indicate that rational price behavior prevailed in all markets over the COVID period. Though herding …

Application Of Stochastic Control To Portfolio Optimization And Energy Finance, Junhe Chen

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In this thesis, we study two continuous-time optimal control problems. The first describes competition in the energy market and the second aims at robust portfolio decisions for commodity markets. Both problems are approached via solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) and HJB-Isaacs (HJBI) equations.

In the energy market problem, our target is to maximize profits from trading crude oil by determining optimal crude oil production. We determine the optimal crude oil production rate by constructing a differential game between two types of players: a single finite-reserve producer and multiple infinite-reserve producers. We extend the deterministic unbounded-production model and stochastic monopolistic game to …