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New Approach To Density Estimation And Application To Value-At-Risk, Kian Guan Lim, Hao Cheng, Nelson K. L. Yap
New Approach To Density Estimation And Application To Value-At-Risk, Kian Guan Lim, Hao Cheng, Nelson K. L. Yap
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The key contribution in this paper is to provide a new approach in estimating the physical distribution of the underlying asset return by using a quadratic Radon-Nikodym derivative function. The latter function transforms a fitted Variance Gamma risk-neutral distribution that is obtained from traded option prices. The generality of the VG distribution helps to avoid unnecessary mis-specification bias. The estimated empirical distribution is then used to find the risk measure of VaR. We show that possible underestimation of VaR risk using existing methods is largely not due to VaR itself but perhaps due to mis-specification errors which we minimize in …
Estimating The Reproducibility Of Psychological Science, Alexander A. Aarts, Et Al, Stephanie C. Lin
Estimating The Reproducibility Of Psychological Science, Alexander A. Aarts, Et Al, Stephanie C. Lin
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if …