Business Commons^™

What Drives Gold Returns? A Decision Tree Analysis, Anastasios G. Malliaris, Mary Malliaris

A. (Tassos) Malliaris

The behavior of gold as an investment asset has been researched extensively. For the very long run, that is several decades, gold does not outperform equities. However, for shorter periods, gold responds to fears of inflation, stock market corrections, currency crises, and financial instabilities very vigorously. In this paper we follow a decision tree methodology to investigate the behavior of gold prices using both traditional financial variables such as equity returns, equity volatility, oil prices, and the euro. We also use the new Cleveland Financial Stress Index to investigate its effectiveness in explaining changes in gold prices. We find that …

An Overview Of The Low-Cost Carrier Model In The Russian Market, Tamilla Curtis, Dawna Rhoades

Dr. Tamilla Curtis

This study provides an overview of the low-cost carrier (LCC) model in the Russian market. The LCC model seeks to achieve a competitive advantage through the reduction of operating costs, below the traditional airline model. Since Russia is an emerging and developing economy, airlines face a high level of uncertainty. Despite the fact that the Russian aviation market is dominated by a few large carriers, Russian lowcost airlines such as SkyExpress and Avianova have been growing rapidly since starting their operations. While Russian LCCs follow the traditional LCC model, some differences are apparent as a result of the specifics of …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation …

Leader Mistreatment, Employee Hostility, And Deviant Behaviors: Integrating Self-Uncertainty And Thwarted Needs Perspectives On Deviance, David M. Mayer, Stefan Thau, Kristina Workman, Marius Van Dijke, David De Cremer

Kristina Workman

Integrating self-uncertainty management and thwarted needs perspectives on leader mistreatment and workplace deviance, we examine when and why leader mistreatment is associated with workplace deviance. We propose that competence uncertainty strengthens the relationship between leader mistreatment and workplace deviance and that hostility mediates this interactive effect. Four field studies and one experiment support the hypotheses. The first two studies provide evidence for the predicted interaction between leader mistreatment and competence uncertainty, and the next three studies demonstrate that hostility mediates this interactive effect. We discuss an extended social exchange explanation of workplace deviance and highlight the psychological interplay between motives, …

Commentary On ‘Why Compassion Counts!’: Compassion As A Generative Force, Jane E. Dutton, Kristina Workman

Kristina Workman

[Excerpt] Twelve years ago, Peter Frost called upon us to consider why compassion counts. More than a decade later, we can see, feel, and understand why compassion counts both in the field of organizational studies and in our lives as scholars. As he was so many times during his career, Peter was prophetic in identifying and animating a core idea that is central to our field and to our lives. We approach this essay with three goals in mind, all focused on elaborating how compassion is a generative force. By generative, we mean that compassion as an idea opens up …

Are Empirical Measures Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Alike?, Chew Lian Chua, David Kim, Sandy Suardi

Sandy Suardi

There is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters. Are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct? This paper shows that, compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models, the use of real-time data with fixed-sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure. There is, however, overwhelming evidence that many of the time …

The Effects Of Uncertainty Dynamics On Exports, Imports And Productivity Growth, Renuka Mahadevan, Sandy Suardi

Sandy Suardi

This paper investigates the trade-productivity growth relationship by incorporating uncertainty/volatility in a VECM-GARCH model. Using Singapore as a case study, we find evidence supporting the crucial role of imports as a beneficial conduit for growth in both total factor productivity (TFP) and labour productivity even after controlling for economic uncertainty in the model. Differences in the causality test results for TFP, labour productivity and trade growth between models with and without uncertainty show the importance of incorporating uncertainty in drawing robust inferences about their causal relationships. The findings that volatility in productivity growth impedes import growth while volatility in export …

A Dynamic Analysis Of The Impact Of Uncertainty On Import- And/Or Export-Led Growth: The Experience Of Japan And The Asian Tigers, Renuka Mahadevan, Sandy Suardi

Sandy Suardi

Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP …

Strategic Management In Agriculture (Recording), Steven Slezak

Steven Slezak

No abstract provided.

Creativity From Constraint? How Political Correctness Influences Creativity In Mixed-Sex Work Groups, Jack Goncalo, Jennifer Chatman, Michelle Duguid, Jessica Kennedy

Jack Goncalo

Most group creativity research is premised on the assumption that creativity is unleashed by removing normative constraints. As work organizations become increasingly diverse in terms of gender, however, this assumption needs to be reconsidered since mixed-sex interactions carry a high risk of offense. Departing from the assumption that normative constraints necessarily stifle creativity, we develop a theoretical perspective in which creativity in mixed-sex groups is enhanced by imposing a norm to be politically correct (PC)—a norm that sets clear expectations for how men and women should interact with one another. We present evidence from two group experiments showing that the …

On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, And Complexity In Project Management, Michael T. Pich, Christoph H. Loch, Arnoud De Meyer

Arnoud DE MEYER

This article develops a model of a project as a payoff function that depends on the state of the world and the choice of a sequence of actions. A causal mapping, which may be incompletely known by the project team, represents the impact of possible actions on the states of the world. An underlying probability space represents available information about the state of the world. Interactions among actions and states of the world determine the complexity of the payoff function. Activities are endogenous, in that they are the result of a policy that maximizes the expected project payoff.

A key …

Determination Of Number Of Dedicated Or's And Supporting Pricing Mechanisms For Emergent Surgeries, Leo Macdonald, Jomon Aliyas Paul

Jomon Aliyas Paul

Inefficient management of emergent surgeries in hospitals can, in part, be attributed to a lack of rigorous analysis appropriate to capturing the underlying uncertainties inherent to this process and a pricing mechanism to ensure its financial viability. We develop a non-preemptive multi-priority queueing model that optimally manages emergent surgeries and supports the resource allocation decision-making process. Specifically, we utilize queueing and discrete event simulation to develop empirical models for determining the required number of emergent operating rooms for a hospital surgical department. We also present algorithms that estimate the appropriate pricing for patient surgeries differentiated by priority level given the …

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Shih-Fen CHENG

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving …

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time …

Would Price Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Shih-Fen CHENG

On May 6, 2010, the U.S. equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see Figure 1) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. The authors contend that the events of May 6, 2010 exhibit patterns consistent with the type of "flash crash" observed in their earlier study (2010). This paper describes the results of nine different simulations created by using a large-scale computer model to reconstruct the critical elements …

Understanding The Impact Of Environmental Uncertainty On Efficiency Performance Indicator Of Thai Rice Millers, Phatcharee Thongrattana, Ferry Jie, Nelson Perera

Nelson Perera

The purpose ofthis paper is to investigate seven uncertain factors (supply, demand, process, planning and control, competitors' action, climate condition and Thai government policy uncertainty) affecting on efficiency of Thai rice millers. The conceptual framework for this study is developed based on literatures in the environmental uncertainty of agri-food supply chain and its performance field. Efficiency is one important performance indicator in supply chain as well as agribusiness. Therefore, understanding certain uncertain factors influencing on efficiency of Thai rice millers is very crucial to manage them properly, and to obtain sustainable efficiency performance. The findings of this research show that …

Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu

Jeffrey Keisler

Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we show the importance of including both uncertainties when modeling for policy analysis. We then develop an approach for incorporating uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We define and demonstrate a protocol for bottom-up expert assessments about prospects for technologies. We then describe a method for using such assessments to derive a probability distribution over future abatement curves, and to estimate random return functions for technological investment in different areas. Finally, we show how these analytic results could be used in a variety of energy-economic models …

Controlling Urban Air Pollution Caused By Households: Uncertainty, Prices, And Income, Carlos Chávez, John K. Stranlund, Walter Gómez

John K. Stranlund

We examine the control of air pollution caused by households burning wood for heating and cooking in the developing world. Since the problem is one of controlling emissions from nonpoint sources, regulations are likely to be directed at household choices of wood consumption and combustion technologies. Moreover, these choices are subtractions from, or contributions to, the pure public good of air quality. Consequently, the efficient policy design is not independent of the distribution of household income. Since it is unrealistic to assume that environmental authorities can make lump sum income transfers part of control policies, efficient control of air pollution …

Securing The Border From Invasives: Robust Inspections Under Severe Uncertainty, Joe L. Moffitt, John K. Stranlund, Craig D. Osteen

John K. Stranlund

Two important features of agricultural quarantine inspections of shipping containers for invasive species at U.S. ports of entry are the general absence of economic considerations and the severe uncertainty that surrounds invasive species introductions. In this article, we propose and illustrate a method for determining an inspection monitoring protocol that addresses both issues. An inspection monitoring protocol is developed that is robust in maximizing the set of uncertain outcomes over which an economic performance criterion is achieved. The framework is applied to derive an alternative to Agricultural Quarantine Inspection (AQI) for shipments of fruits and vegetables as currently practiced at …

A Safety Valve For Emissions Trading, John K. Stranlund

John K. Stranlund

This paper considers the optimal design of an emissions trading program that includes a safety valve tax that allows pollution sources to escape the emissions cap imposed by the aggregate supply of emissions permits. I demonstrate that an optimal hybrid emissions trading/emissions tax policy involves a permit supply that is strictly less than under a pure emissions trading scheme and a safety valve tax that exceeds the optimal pure emissions tax as long as expected marginal damage is an increasing function. While the expected level of emissions under a hybrid policy may be more or less than under pure emissions …

A Note On Emissions Taxes And Incomplete Information, Carlos A. Chavez, John K. Stranlund

John K. Stranlund

In contrast with what we perceive is the conventional wisdom about setting emissions taxes under uncertainty, we demonstrate that setting a uniform tax equal to expected marginal damage is not generally efficient under incomplete information about firms’ abatement costs and damages from pollution. We show that efficient taxes will deviate from expected marginal damage if there is uncertainty about the slopes of the marginal abatement costs of regulated firms. Moreover, efficient emissions tax rates will vary across firms if a regulator can use observable firm-level characteristics to gain some information about how the firms’ marginal abatement costs vary.

The Optimal Pricing Of Pollution When Enforcement Is Costly, John K. Stranlund, Carlos A. Chavez, Mauricio G. Villena

John K. Stranlund

We consider the pricing of a uniformly mixed pollutant when enforcement is costly with a model of optimal, possibly firm-specific, emissions taxes and their enforcement. We argue that optimality requires an enforcement strategy that induces full compliance by every firm. This holds whether or not regulators have complete information about firms’ abatement costs, the costs of monitoring them for compliance, or the costs of collecting penalties from noncompliant firms. Moreover, ignoring several unrealistic special cases, optimality requires discriminatory emissions taxes except when regulators are unable to observe firms’ abatement costs, the costs of monitoring individual firms, or any firm-specific characteristic …

Additivity Of Information Value In Two-Act Linear Loss Decisions With Normal Priors, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

For the two-act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is super-additive in value. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the canonical problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.

The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The discounting of future income streams by a risk adjusted rate of return by proponents of the income method reflects a misplaced faith in the ability to project accurately future income streams and pick out the “right” rate of return. Future income streams are fairly reliably predictable when analyzing a debt instrument. However, equity investment future income streams are notoriously unpredictable. Similarly assessing the risk associated with realizing returns from a fixed security is comparatively easy in comparison with assessing the risks associated with equity returns. The widely used Beta has not proved to be a very stable measure of …

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift And Market Participants' Information Processing Biases, Lihong Liang

Lihong Liang

Prior research has been unable to explain the phenomenon known as post-earnings announcement drift, raising questions concerning the semi-strong form efficiency of the market typically assumed in capital market research. This study contributes to our understanding of this anomaly by examining drift in the context of theories that consider investors' non-Bayesian behaviors. The empirical evidence reveals that investors' overconfidence about their private information and the reliability of the earnings information are two important factors that explain drift. Finally, this study also provides insight into the puzzling relationship between dispersion and drift discussed in prior research.