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Bond Rating Agencies And Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Both bond ratings agencies and stock analysts evaluate publicly traded companies and communicate their opinions to investors. Comparing the timelines of each, it is found that Granger causality flows both ways. While most bond downgrades are preceded by declines in actual and forecasting earnings, both actual earnings and forecasts of future earnings tend to fall following downgrades. Although part of this post-downgrade forecast revision can be attributed to negative news regarding actual earnings, most appears to be reaction to the downgrade itself. Little change is found in actual earnings following upgrades. Analysts, however, tend to increase their forecasts of future …