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Bond Rating Agencies And Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh
Bond Rating Agencies And Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Both bond ratings agencies and stock analysts evaluate publicly traded companies and communicate their opinions to investors. Comparing the timelines of each, it is found that Granger causality flows both ways. While most bond downgrades are preceded by declines in actual and forecasting earnings, both actual earnings and forecasts of future earnings tend to fall following downgrades. Although part of this post-downgrade forecast revision can be attributed to negative news regarding actual earnings, most appears to be reaction to the downgrade itself. Little change is found in actual earnings following upgrades. Analysts, however, tend to increase their forecasts of future …
Causality Between Exports And Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence From Shanghai, Jordan Shan, Gary Gang Tian
Causality Between Exports And Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence From Shanghai, Jordan Shan, Gary Gang Tian
Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)
The export-led growth hypothesis is tested using monthly time series data for Shanghai (one of the major exporting provinces in China) using the Granger no-causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregresion (VAR) model. This paper builds on the existing literature in three distinct ways. This is the first study of the export-led growth hypothesis which employs a regional dataset (Shanghai). Second, the paper follows Riezman et al. (1996) in controlling for the growth of imports to avoid a spurious causality result; and finally, the use of the methodology by Toda and Yamamoto is expected to …