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Full-Text Articles in Business
Momentum And Reversal: The Role Of Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu
Momentum And Reversal: The Role Of Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper investigates the relation between short selling and momentum. We document that a consistent momentum strategy that buys lightly shorted winners and sells heavily shorted losers exhibits strong short-term momentum and no long-term reversal. In contrast, an inconsistent momentum strategy that buys heavily shorted winners and sells lightly shorted losers experiences weak short-term momentum and persistent long-term reversal. Our results are robust after controlling for firm characteristics, proxy for short-sale constraints, and investor sentiment, as well as an exogenous shock (the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997). These findings present a new challenge to existing theories of momentum that rely …
Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators, Christopher J. Neely, David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators, Christopher J. Neely, David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Academic research relies extensively on macroeconomic variables to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium, with relatively little attention paid to the technical indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by comparing the predictive ability of technical indicators with that of macroeconomic variables. Technical indicators display statistically and economically significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power, matching or exceeding that of macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, technical indicators and macroeconomic variables provide complementary information over the business cycle: technical indicators better detect the typical decline in the equity risk premium near business-cycle peaks, whereas macroeconomic variables more readily pick up the …
Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty And Momentum, Bing Han, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty And Momentum, Bing Han, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Momentum arises from the investor gradually learning about the relative accuracy of the information sources and updating their weights. Empirical tests validate the model's prediction of stronger …
Momentum And Informed Trading, A. Hameed, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Momentum And Informed Trading, A. Hameed, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Consistent with the predictions of Wang (1994), we document that firm-specific informed trading is an important determinant of price momentum. The stronger return continuation in stocks with more informed trading cannot be explained by cross-sectional differences in uncertainty proxies such as analyst forecast dispersion, analyst coverage, idiosyncratic return volatility, and size. The relationship between informed trading and return continuation is also not attributable to cross-sectional differences in liquidity. Instead, our evidence emphasizes the role of price discovery in generating short-term price momentum.
Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitchell Warachka
Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitchell Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper introduces the concept of statistical arbitrage, a long horizon trading opportunity that generates a riskless profit and is designed to exploit persistent anomalies. Statistical arbitrage circumvents the joint hypothesis dilemma of traditional market efficiency tests because its definition is independent of any equilibrium model and its existence is incompatible with market efficiency. We provide a methodology to test for statistical arbitrage and then empirically investigate whether momentum and value trading strategies constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities. Despite adjusting for transaction costs, the influence of small stocks, margin requirements, liquidity buffers for the marking-to-market of short-sales, and higher borrowing rates, …