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Full-Text Articles in Business

Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang Jan 2023

Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …


Information Acquisition And Expected Returns: Evidence From Edgar Search Traffic, Frank Weikai Li, Chengzhu Sun Aug 2022

Information Acquisition And Expected Returns: Evidence From Edgar Search Traffic, Frank Weikai Li, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines expected return information embedded in investors' information acquisition activity. Using a novel dataset containing investors' access of company filings through SEC's EDGAR system, we reverse engineer their expectations over future payoffs and show that the abnormal number of IPs searching for firms' financial statements strongly predict future returns. The return predictability stems from investors allocating more effort to firms with improving fundamentals and following exogeneous shock to underpricing. A long-short portfolio based on our measure of information acquisition activity generate monthly abnormal return of 80 basis points and does not reverse over the long-run.. In addition, the …


Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang May 2022

Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using multiple short-sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market. Our results display significant cross-country and cross-firm differences in the predictive power of alternative short-sale measures. The predictive power of shorts is stronger in countries with nonprohibitive short sale regulations and for stocks with relatively low liquidity, high shorting fees, and low price efficiency.


Responsible Hedge Funds, Hao Liang, Lin Sun, Song Wee Melvyn Teo May 2022

Responsible Hedge Funds, Hao Liang, Lin Sun, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds that endorse the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) underperform other hedge funds after adjusting for risk but attract greater investor flows, accumulate more assets, and harvest greater fee revenues. Consistent with an agency explanation, the underperformance is driven by PRI signatories with low environmental, social, and governance (ESG) exposures and is greater for hedge funds with poor incentive alignment. To address endogeneity, we exploit regulatory reforms that enhance stewardship and show that the ESG exposure and relative performance of signatory funds improve post reforms. Our findings suggest that some hedge funds endorse responsible investment to pander …


Market Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence Prior To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-2009, Charlie Charoenwong, Kuan Yong David Ding, Ping Wang May 2022

Market Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence Prior To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-2009, Charlie Charoenwong, Kuan Yong David Ding, Ping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Since the adoption of the SEC’s Rule 10b-21 in 1988, many researchers have been concerned over the effectiveness of short sales constraints in preventing manipulative trading in the derivatives market. We analyze whether options can be used as synthetic short sale instruments to manipulate stock prices before a seasoned equity offer. Due to the existence of strict short sales constraints in the equity market and market makers’ anticipation of manipulative trading, it would be very costly for a manipulator to drive stock prices down artificially either by short selling in the equity market or by using synthetic short sales in …


Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu Apr 2022

Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …


Expected Return, Volume, And Mispricing, Yufeng Han, Dashan Huang, Dayong Huang, Guofu Zhou Mar 2022

Expected Return, Volume, And Mispricing, Yufeng Han, Dashan Huang, Dayong Huang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that expected return is related to trading volume positively among underpriced stocks but negatively among overpriced stocks. As such, trading volume amplifies mispricing. Our results are robust to alternative mispricing and trading volume measures, alternative portfolio formation methods, and controlling for variables that are known to have amplification effects on mispricing. By attributing trading volume to investor disagreement, we show that our results are consistent with the recent theoretical model of Atmaz and Basak (2018) in that investor disagreement predicts stock returns conditional on expectation bias.


High Sex Ratios And Household Portfolio Choice In China, Wenchao Li, Changcheng Song, Shu Xu, Junjian Yi Mar 2022

High Sex Ratios And Household Portfolio Choice In China, Wenchao Li, Changcheng Song, Shu Xu, Junjian Yi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper studies how high sex ratios (more men than women) affect household portfolio choice. Using data from a nationally representative Chinese household finance survey, we find that a 1 standard deviation increase in the sex ratio would raise the stock market participation rate by 2.9 percentage points or 52.2 percent for families with a son relative to families with a daughter. Our estimates imply that rising sex ratios explain around 10 percent of the significant growth in China’s stock market size in recent decades.


Impact Of Restrictive Red Blood Cell Transfusion Strategy On Thrombosis-Related Events: A Meta-Analysis And Systematic Review, Mairehaba Maimaitiming, Chenxiao Zhang, Jingui Xie, Zhichao Zheng, Haidong Luo, Oon Cheong Ooi Mar 2022

Impact Of Restrictive Red Blood Cell Transfusion Strategy On Thrombosis-Related Events: A Meta-Analysis And Systematic Review, Mairehaba Maimaitiming, Chenxiao Zhang, Jingui Xie, Zhichao Zheng, Haidong Luo, Oon Cheong Ooi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Background and Objectives There is an ongoing controversy regarding the risks of restrictive and liberal red blood cell (RBC) transfusion strategies. This meta-analysis assessed whether transfusion at a lower threshold was superior to transfusion at a higher threshold, with regard to thrombosis-related events, that is, whether these outcomes can benefit from a restrictive transfusion strategy is debated. Materials and Methods We searched PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Scopus from inception up to 31 July 2021. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in any clinical setting that evaluated the effects of restrictive versus liberal RBC transfusion in adults. …


Race And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2022

Race And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that minority operated funds deliver higher alphas, Sharpe ratios, and information ratios than do non-minority operated funds. Moreover, minority fund managers attended more selective schools, worked at higher status investment banks, and are more likely to hold post-graduate degrees. Yet, minority managers raise less start-up capital and attract lower investor flows. Racial homophily fuels investors' appetite for non-minority funds. To address endogeneity, we leverage on an event study of minority manager fund transitions and an instrumental variable analysis that exploits racial imprinting during childhood. The results suggest that minorities face significant barriers to entry in the hedge fund …


Conditional Relationship Between Distress Risk And Stock Returns, Su Hee Yun, Jung Min Kim Jan 2022

Conditional Relationship Between Distress Risk And Stock Returns, Su Hee Yun, Jung Min Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Purpose: Previous research on the relationship between a firm’s distress risk and future stock returns produces inconsistent results. This study attempts to explain the conflicting results of earlier studies by showing that systematic distress risk leads to positive rewards, while unsystematic distress risk leads to low stock returns. In addition, this study intends to elucidate the factors of systematic distress risk and unsystematic distress risk, respectively. In this way, this study informs the rational investor what kind of distress risk they should take. Design/methodology/approach: This study considers two distress-predictor sets to show a possibility between distress risk and stock returns …


Joint News, Attention Spillover, And Market Returns Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu Nov 2021

Joint News, Attention Spillover, And Market Returns Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze over 2.6 million news articles and propose a novel measure of joint news coverage of firms. The measure strongly and negatively predicts market returns, with a monthly R-squared of 3.93% in sample and 6.52% out of sample. The relation is causal, robust to existing predictors, and is especially strong when market uncertainty is high or when market frictions are large. At the firm level, joint news coverage is associated with a 20.3% increase in EDGAR downloads by new IPs from the investor bases of the other covered firms. Our evidence suggests that joint news triggers investor attention spillover …


The Profitability Of Warrant Issuers: An Empirical Investigation Of Single Stock And Index Warrants, Ichaya Wongnapakarn, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol, Pattarawan Prasarnphanich, Eakapat Manitkajornkit Oct 2021

The Profitability Of Warrant Issuers: An Empirical Investigation Of Single Stock And Index Warrants, Ichaya Wongnapakarn, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol, Pattarawan Prasarnphanich, Eakapat Manitkajornkit

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the derivative warrant's profit of issuers compensated with the risk from issuing call and put derivative warrants because they have commitments in risk management and managing risk by hedging the underlying exposure. The average profit of issuers is a cumulative profit from the first trading day until the last trading day. Consistent with the imperfect competition for issuing put derivative warrants on single stock from different securities borrowing and lending advantages, the profit margin of a put warrant is higher than the call warrant. However, the profit margin from a put warrant is not necessarily higher than …


Esg And The Market Return, Ran Chang, Liya Chu, Jun Tu, Bohui Zhang, Guofu Zhou Oct 2021

Esg And The Market Return, Ran Chang, Liya Chu, Jun Tu, Bohui Zhang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) index. We find that it has significant power in predicting the stock market risk premium, both in- and out-of-sample, and delivers sizable economic gains for mean-variance investors in asset allocation. Although the index is extracted by using the PLS method, its predictability is robust to using alternative machine learning tools. We find further that the aggregate of environmental variables captures short-term forecasting power, while that of social or governance captures long-term. The predictive power of the ESG index stems from both cash flow and discount rate channels.


Tracking Retail Investor Activity, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang Oct 2021

Tracking Retail Investor Activity, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide an easy method to identify marketable retail purchases and sales using recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 bps over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalance is attributable to order flow persistence, while the rest cannot be explained by contrarian trading (proxy for liquidity provision) or public news sentiment. There is suggestive, but only suggestive, evidence that retail marketable orders might contain firm-level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.


A Dynamic Delegated Investment Model Of Spacs, Dan Luo, Jian Sun Sep 2021

A Dynamic Delegated Investment Model Of Spacs, Dan Luo, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study SPACs in a continuous-time delegated investment model. Our model is built upon three unique features of SPACs: the sponsor and the investor are only partially aligned, a SPAC has a short time horizon, and the investor has the final control over investment approval. Due to the misalignment in incentives, the sponsor has an increasing incentive to propose unprofitable projects to the investor; in response, the investor exerts more stringent screening based on her information. Although the screening helps curb the sponsor’s moral hazard, it also dampens the disciplining effect of partial alignment in incentives. When the investor’s information …


Inside Brokers, Frank Weikai Li, Abhiroop Mukherjee, Rik Sen Sep 2021

Inside Brokers, Frank Weikai Li, Abhiroop Mukherjee, Rik Sen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We identify the broker each corporate insider trades through, and find that analysts and mutual fund managers affiliated with such “inside brokers” have a substantial information advantage on the insider’s firm. Affiliated analysts issue more accurate earnings forecasts, and affiliated mutual funds trade the insider’s stock more profitably than their peers, following insider trades through their brokerage. Notably, this advantage persists well after these insider trades are publicly disclosed. Our results challenge the prevalent perception that information asymmetry arising from insider trading is acute only before trade disclosure, and suggest that brokers facilitating these trades are in a position to …


Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, T. Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei Jul 2021

Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, T. Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the importance of peer effects among sell-side analysts who work at the same brokerage house, but cover different firms. By mapping the information network within each brokerage, we identify analysts who occupy central positions in their network. Central analysts incorporate more information from their coworkers and produce better research. Using shocks to network structures around brokerage mergers, we identify the influence of peer effects and the importance of industry expertise on analysts’ performance. A portfolio strategy that exploits the forecast revisions of central analysts earns up to 24% per annum.


Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Width-To-Height Ratio And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Song Wee Melvyn Teo Jul 2021

Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Width-To-Height Ratio And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

An abundance of evidence relates facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) to masculine behaviors in males. We show that hedge funds operated by high-fWHR managers underperform those operated by low-fWHR managers, bear greater downside risk, are more susceptible to fire sales, and fail more often. High-fWHR managers compensate for their underperformance by marketing their funds more aggressively, thereby garnering higher flows and fee revenues. By exploiting major personal events that shape testosterone, namely marriage and fatherhood, we trace the biological mechanism underlying the relation between fWHR and investment performance to circulating testosterone. Our findings are robust and extend to equity mutual funds.


Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta Jun 2021

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities' implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 min and 5 min, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …


Hedge Funds And Their Prime Broker Analysts, Sung Gon Chung, Manoj Kulchania, Melvyn Teo Jun 2021

Hedge Funds And Their Prime Broker Analysts, Sung Gon Chung, Manoj Kulchania, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Are sell-side analysts reluctant to go against the investment views of their hedge funds when these hedge funds are their prime brokerage clients? We show that prime broker analysts tend to upgrade stocks recently bought by their clients. For stocks with upgraded recommendations, post-announcement cumulative abnormal returns are significantly lower for those purchased by the prime brokerage clients. Our results are stronger with high-dollar-turnover clients who generate more trading commissions. We also find that a hedge fund with a large bet on a stock has a stronger incentive to pressure the fund’s prime brokers to issue a favorable recommendation on …


The Pricing Of Initial Public Offering And Market Efficiency, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol Jun 2021

The Pricing Of Initial Public Offering And Market Efficiency, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates long-run performance of Thai initial public offerings (IPOs). To examine the longrun performance of Thai IPOs, we compute buy-and-hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns for two years after the IPOs. We find strong evidence of long run underpricing in Thai market. Specifically, the average buy-and-hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns are 64.5% and 18.4% respectively. However, our multi-variate analysis does not indicate a strong relation between long-run underperformance and firm-specific factors, such as firm size, firm age, investment banker reputation and firm profitability.


Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta Mar 2021

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities’ implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 minutes and 5 minutes, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …


Hedge Fund Franchises, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2021

Hedge Fund Franchises, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the growth strategies of hedge fund firms. We find that firms with successful first funds are able to launch follow-on funds that charge higher performance fees, set more onerous redemption terms, and attract greater inflows. Motivated by the aforementioned spillover effects, first funds outperform follow-on funds, after adjusting for risk. Consistent with the agency view, greater incentive alignment moderates the performance differential between first and follow-on funds. Moreover, multiple-product firms underperform single-product firms but harvest greater fee revenues, thereby hurting investors while benefitting firm partners. Investors respond to this growth strategy by redeeming from first funds of firms …


Is The Synthetic Stock Price Really Lower Than Actual Price?, Jianfeng Hu Dec 2020

Is The Synthetic Stock Price Really Lower Than Actual Price?, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Conventional wisdom suggests synthetic stock prices are lower than actual prices due to short‐sale constraints and voting premiums. This study finds that such underpricing of the synthetic midquote disappears if arbitrageurs face security borrowing costs. The synthetic spread predominantly contains the actual spread. Synthetic stock overpricing is as common as underpricing but the former is more persistent and more profitable. The difference between synthetic and actual quotes is significantly affected by options market makers' hedging costs and investors' demand for leverage.


What Do Short Sellers Know?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Juan (Julie) Wu, Xiaoyan Zhang Nov 2020

What Do Short Sellers Know?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Juan (Julie) Wu, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using NYSE short-sale order data, we investigate whether short sellers' informational advantage is related to firm earnings and analyst-related events. With a novel decomposition method, we find that while these fundamental event days constitute only 12% of sample days, they account for over 24% of the overall underperformance of heavily shorted stocks. Importantly, short sellers use both public news and private information to anticipate news regarding earnings and analysts. Shorting's predictive ability remains significant after controlling for information in analyst actions and displays no reversal patterns, indicating that short sellers know more than analysts, and the nature of their information …


Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder Oct 2020

Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial literacy in Singapore has not been analyzed in much detail, despite the fact that this is one of the world’s most rapidly aging nations. Using the Singapore Life Panel®, we explore older Singaporeans’ levels of financial knowledge and compare them to those observed in the United States. We assess portfolio complexity for these older households, to examine how financial literacy is related to outcomes of interest. We show that older Singaporeans’ levels of financial literacy are comparable overall to those in the United States, even though older Singaporeans score slightly lower on some dimensions (knowledge of interest and inflation), …


What Drives The Declining Wealth Effect Of Subsequent Share Repurchase Announcements?, David K. Ding, Hardjo Koerniadi, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti Aug 2020

What Drives The Declining Wealth Effect Of Subsequent Share Repurchase Announcements?, David K. Ding, Hardjo Koerniadi, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recent academic studies document that open market share repurchase announcements in the United States generate significantly lower returns than those reported in earlier studies. We find that the lower announcement return is associated with an increasing number of subsequent announcements in the more recent periods. Although the announcement period return from the initial announcement is positive, subsequent announcement returns are significantly decreasing. Further, we find that the decreasing returns of subsequent announcements are attributed to firms with negative past repurchase announcement returns. Our multivariate regression test results are consistent with the notion that the decreasing subsequent repurchase announcement returns are …


Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei Jul 2020

Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether analysts use information in well-known stock return anomalies when making recommendations. We find results contrary to the common view that analysts are sophisticated information intermediaries who help improve market efficiency. Specifically, when analysts make more favorable recommendations to stocks classified as overvalued, these stocks tend to have particularly large negative abnormal returns ex post. Moreover, analysts whose recommendations are more aligned with anomaly signals are more skilled and elicit greater recommendation announcement returns. Our results suggest that analysts' biased recommendations could be a source of market frictions that impede the efficient correction of mispricing.


Risk Premium Spillovers Among Stock Markets: Evidence From Higher-Order Moments, Marinela Adriana Finta, Sofiane Aboura Jun 2020

Risk Premium Spillovers Among Stock Markets: Evidence From Higher-Order Moments, Marinela Adriana Finta, Sofiane Aboura

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the volatility and skewness risk premium spillovers among the U.S., U.K., German, and Japanese stock markets. We define risk premia as the difference between risk-neutral and realized moments. Our findings highlight that during periods of stress, cross-market and cross-moment spillovers increase and that these increases are mirrored by a decrease in within-market effects. We document strong bidirectional spillovers between volatility and skewness risk premia and emphasize the prominent role played by the volatility risk premium. Finally, we show that several announcements drive the time-varying risk premium spillovers.