Business Commons^™

Reviving The United States' Commitment To Pakistan And Afghanistan, Steve A. Young, Imdad Hussain Sahito

Journal of Strategic Security

As President Obama is in the midst of deciding whether additional U.S.combat forces are needed in Afghanistan in addition to the 21,000 troops recently committed, he must realize that additional armed forces are only a stopgap measure in Afghanistan's downward spiral into an 'undergoverned' failed state. Similarly, as Pakistan's fragile and fractured civilian government continues to appease the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of Pakistani Pashtun tribesmen with Taliban cultural values led by Baitullah Mehsud and others, it comes closer to the concept of a "misgoverned" failed state, possessing a small arsenal of nuclear arms. The problem for the …

The Tangled Web Of Taliban And Associated Movements, Greg Smith

Journal of Strategic Security

Following the devastating terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001,worldwide attention became focused on the Taliban and al-Qaida forcesin Afghanistan. Prior to the attacks, many people had never heard of the Taliban or their shar'ia-law style of government. Since 2001, manysplinter groups have formed in response to the continual United Statespresence in the region. Today, the term Taliban has been used to envelop several groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Haqqani Network (HQN) and the Tehrik-eNifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi(TNSM). These groups make up the majority of fighters along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Many of these groups have been historicrivals for control of the …

Extinguishing The Torch Of Terror: The Threat Of Terrorism And The 2010 Olympics, Serge E. Vidalis

Journal of Strategic Security

With the change in seasons comes the expected change of insurgency operations in Afghanistan as Taliban and al-Qaida fighters mount their spring and summer offensives against both NATO forces and Afghanis sympathetic to foreign troops. As insurgents curtail their seasonal operations with the arrival of fall and winter, is it likely that a threat may arise from Afghanistan to affect the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia? As will be illustrated herein, the threat to the games will not be borne directly from the insurgency in Afghanistan but rather by the universal jihadist ideology of al-Qaida rather than the nationalist …

Revisiting Downs' Issue-Attention Cycle: International Terrorism And U.S. Public Opinion, Karen K. Petersen

Journal of Strategic Security

Lamenting the lack of public awareness of international events and U.S. foreign policy is not a particularly novel exercise; yet, explaining the process by which issues enter and exit the public realm remains a challenging endeavor. Despite contributions from researchers working in international relations and mass communication, explaining public inattentiveness continues to vex scholars. However, in his article, "Up and Down with Ecology: The 'Issue-Attention Cycle,'" Anthony Downs provides a parsimonious and tractable model of public opinion that can be applied to foreign policy issues.1 While Downs concerns himself exclusively with domestic issues, particularly environmental issues, his model has thepotential …

Book Reviews, Christine E. Williamson, Ed Urie, Michael Savasta, Robin L. Thompson, D.M., Edward M. Roche

Journal of Strategic Security

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. By David T.Moore.

At The Center Of The Storm: The CIA During America's Time of Crisis. By George Tenet with Bill Harlow.

Female Suicide Bombers. By Rosemarie Skaine.

Information Operations: Doctrine and Practice. By Christopher Paul.

The Secret Sentry: The Untold History of the National Security Agency. By Matthew M. Aid.

The Blood of Lambs: A Former Terrorist's Memoir of Death and Redemption. By Kamal Saleem with Lynn Vincent.

Attaché Extraordinaire: Vernon A. Walters in Brazil. By Frank Márcio De Oliveira.

Guerilla Warfare & Law Enforcement: Combating The 21st Century Terrorist Cell Within The U.S., Richard J. Hughbank

Journal of Strategic Security

Both domestic and international terrorist organizations employ guerrilla warfare tactics, techniques, and procedures. Thus, the ability to identify and defeat the members of these organizations, cripple their infrastructures, and disrupt their financial resources lies in the understanding of modern guerrilla warfare as it develops in the twenty-first century within the United States.3 The forms of asymmetric warfare4 adopted by domestic and international terrorist groups alike is no longer intended to gain simple media exposure or governmental manipulation; they want to make an overpowering impact by causing massive loss of life and severe damage to infrastructure and are often motivated by …

Islamist Distortions: Hizb Ut- Tahrir A Breeding Ground For Al- Qaida Recruitment, Krishna Mungur

Journal of Strategic Security

In 1953, a radical splinter organization from the Muslim Brotherhood,Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), was founded by the Al-Azhar University (Cairo,Egypt) educated jurist Sheikh Taqiuddin an-Nabhani who criticized theMuslim Brotherhood for collaborating with Egyptian secularists, such as Gamal Abdel Nasser. A sizable portion of the more radical members of the Muslim Brotherhood broke away, to join Nabhani's budding movement. Today, HuT is known to operate in more than forty countries, calling for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate, with a history of violence and links to violent terrorist organizations. Given increasing tensions in the region over the presence of coalition troops, Predator …

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Designing Short Term Trading Systems With Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Tobias Hahn

Tobias Hahn

There is a long established history of applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to financial data sets. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the use of this methodology to develop a financially viable, short-term trading system. When developing short-term systems, the authors typically site the neural network within an already existing non-neural trading system. This paper briefly reviews an existing medium-term long-only trading system, and then works through the Vanstone and Finnie methodology to create a short-term focused ANN which will enhance this trading strategy. The initial trading strategy and the ANN enhanced trading strategy are comprehensively benchmarked both in-sample and …

Leverage Change, Debt Overhang, And Stock Prices, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We document a significant and negative effect of the change in a firm’s leverage ratio on its stock prices. We find that the negative effect is stronger for firms with a greater likelihood of debt overhang. Moreover, firms with an increase in leverage ratio tend to have less future investment. These findings are consistent with Myers' (1977) debt overhang theory that an increase in leverage may lead to future underinvestment, thus reducing a firm's value.

Conflicts Of Interest And Stock Recommendations: The Effects Of The Global Settlement And Related Regulations, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureria, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the effect of the Global Analyst Research Settlement and related regulations on sell-side research. These regulations attempted to mitigate the interdependence between research and investment banking. We document that following the regulations many brokerage houses have migrated from the traditional five-tier rating system to a three-tier system. Optimistic recommendations have become less frequent and more informative, whereas neutral and pessimistic recommendations have become more frequent and less informative. Importantly, the overall informativeness of recommendations has declined. The likelihood of issuing optimistic recommendations no longer depends on affiliation with the covered firm, although affiliated analysts are still reluctant to …

The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

This article analyzes the relationship between the risk-adjusted performance of hedge funds and their proximity to investments using data on Asian-focused hedge funds. We find, relative to an augmented Fung and Hsieh (2004) factor model, that hedge funds with a physical presence (head or research office) in their investment region outperform other hedge funds by 3.72 percent per year. The local information advantage is pervasive across all major geographical regions, but is strongest for Emerging Market funds and funds holding illiquid securities. These results are robust to adjustments for fund fees, serial correlation, backfill bias, and incubation bias. We show …

Countering The Somali Pirates: Harmonizing The International Response, Richard Weitz

Journal of Strategic Security

The growing threat to international shipping in the Gulf of Aden and neighboring regions from pirates operating off the shores of lawless Somalia has engendered an unparalleled global response. Over the past year, numerous international security organizations as well as national governments have organized many separate multilateral and single-country maritime security operations in the Horn of Africa region. Despite the unprecedented extent of this effort, this mishmash of ad hoc multinational and national initiatives has had only a limited effect. These various contingents typically have conflicting mandates and rules of engagement. They have also become fixated on responding to immediate …

Start: Overcoming Remaining Challenges, Elizabeth Zolotukhina

Journal of Strategic Security

During the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and VladimirPutin, the governments of Russia and the United States could not agreeon how to codify their balance of strategic offensive nuclear forces after the existing Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (START) expired onDecember 5, 2009.1 The United States and Russia are currently engagedin negotiations to replace START with a new treaty before the end of this year.

Keeping Our Campuses And Communities Safe, Ronald Goodman

Journal of Strategic Security

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the U.S. population has a heightened awareness that tragedies can and do strike ordinary people without warning. The same can be said for the unfortunate abundance of campus shootings, where the next "9/11" occurred in 2007 on the campus of Virginia Tech. And yet, subsequent investigations into these horrific events often reveal that clues existed that might have pointed to the eventual violent outcome. It is unquestionable that to dramatically improve the safety and security of our cities we must rely upon the millions of eyes of our fellow citizens to unearth these …

Book Reviews, J. Kelly Stewart, Mark J. Roberts, Jeffery Ahn, Lloyd H. Hoffman, Donald J. Goldstein

Journal of Strategic Security

The Accidental Guerilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. By David Kilcullen.

Aviation and Airport Security: Terrorism and Safety Concerns. By Kathleen M. Sweet.

Executive Measures, Terrorism and National Security: Have the Rules of the Game Changed? By David Bonner.

Spycraft: The Secret History of the CIA's Spy techs from Communism to Al-Qaeda. By Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton, with Henry Robert Schlesinger.

Troublesome Young Men: The Rebels who brought Churchill to Power and Saved England. By Lynne Olson.

Effects Of International Institutional Factors On Earnings Quality Of Banks, Chee Yeow Lim, Gerald Lobo, Kanagaretnam Kiridaran

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

No abstract provided.

The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the relationship between the risk-adjusted performance of hedge funds and their proximity to investments using data on Asia-focused hedge funds. I find, relative to an augmented Fung and Hsieh (2004) factor model, that hedge funds with a physical presence (head or research office) in their investment region outperform other hedge funds by 3.72% per year. The local information advantage is pervasive across all major geographical regions, but is strongest for emerging market funds and funds holding illiquid securities. These results are robust to adjustments for fund fees, serial correlation, backfill bias, and incubation bias. I show also …

What Price Security?, Donald C. Masters

Journal of Strategic Security

This article presents a critique of the Copenhagen Consensus Center's(CCC) exhaustive study on transnational terrorism, published in 2008.The implications of this study are controversial, yet highly relevant in today's economic environment. The Obama administration must come toterms with fiscal realities that will challenge budget priorities and invigorate what will undoubtedly prove to be tough negotiations on Capitol Hill for homeland security dollars. It is proposed here that standard economic tools such as benefit cost analysis, cost effectiveness criteria, and simulation models can help identify areas where security can be either extended or improved using fewer resources. Greater movement towards competitive …

The Tipping Point: Biological Terrorism, Scott Cary

Journal of Strategic Security

This article presents a strategic, operational, and tactical analysis of information currently available on the state of bio-weapons development by non-state actors, primarily Islamist jihadists. It discusses the evidence supporting a practical assessment that non-state actors have begun to acquire, and in the near-term intend to employ, bio-weapons. A pathogen and method of attack specifically designed to achieve the strategic goals of jihadists are presented as functional examples of the problem of the emerging global bio-weapons threat.Is a terrorist attack utilizing biological weapons a real threat? If so, is there a way to predict the circumstances under which it might …

Decision Support For Countering Terrorist Threats Against Transportation Networks, Richard Adler, Jeff Fuller

Journal of Strategic Security

This article presents a dynamic decision support methodology forcounter-terrorism decision support. The initial sections introduce basic objectives and challenges of terrorism risk analysis and risk management. The remainder of the paper describes TRANSEC, a decision support framework for defining, validating, and monitoring strategies focused on managing terrorism risks to international transportation networks. The methodology and software tools underlying TRANSEC are applicable to other homeland security problems, such as critical infrastructure and border protection.

Institutional Investors And The Informational Efficiency Of Prices, Ekkehart Boehmer, Eric K. Kelley

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a broad panel of NYSE-listed stocks between 1983 and 2004, we study the relation between institutional shareholdings and the relative informational efficiency of prices, measured as deviations from a random walk. Stocks with greater institutional ownership are priced more efficiently, and we show that variation in liquidity does not drive this result. One mechanism through which prices become more efficient is institutional trading activity, even when institutions trade passively. But efficiency is also directly related to institutional holdings, even after controlling for institutional trading, analyst coverage, short selling, variation in liquidity, and firm characteristics.

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Do Initial Stop-Losses Stop Losses?, Bruce Vanstone

Bruce Vanstone

A great many traders use stop-loss rules in their everyday trading. In addition, during periods of high volatility, many traders attempt to protect their downside by moving their stops closer to the price action. However, there appears to be little real justification for doing this. There is a shortage of evidence that demonstrates that stops are actually providing the benefits that traders believe they are. This paper is an empirical study of the use of stops within a defined trading strategy. The methodology used within this paper can easily be ported to any individual traders’ strategy. In the specific case …

International Commodity Indices, Yogendra Sisodia

Yogendra Sisodia

Reuters–CRB Futures Index, Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, Nikkei-TOCOM Commodity Index, S&P Commodity Index & Rogers International Commodity Index components

Swot Analysis Indian Banking, Yogendra Sisodia

Yogendra Sisodia

Indian Banking Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

Redington Credit Analysis, Yogendra Sisodia

Yogendra Sisodia

Redington India Credit Analysis.

Long Term Capital Management, Yogendra Sisodia

Yogendra Sisodia

Long Term Capital Management Causes and Lessons Learned

Time Series Analysis, Yogendra Sisodia

Yogendra Sisodia

Time Series Analysis using Project R. ARMA Model on Nifty Spot, Nifty Futures and MCX Comdex.

Intelligent Is — Artificial Neural Networks In Financial Trading, Bruce Vanstone, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

From the Introduction:

Soft computing represents that area of computing adapted from the physical sciences. Artificial Intelligence techniques within this realm attempt to solve problems by applying physical laws and processes. This style of computing is particularly tolerant of imprecision and uncertainty, making the approach attractive to those researching within 'noisy' realms, where the signal-to-noise ratio is quite low. Soft computing is normally accepted to include the three key areas of Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, and Probabilistic Reasoning (which includes Genetic Algorithms, Chaos Theory, etc).