Business Commons^™

On The Decision To Take A Pitch, J. Eric Bickel

Eric Bickel

Baseball is a highly strategic game, with decisions being made almost continuously. In this paper, we analyze the decision to have the batter take a pitch, which means that he does not swing at the pitch under any circumstances—even if it is easily hittable. Why would a batter do this? Using decision-theoretic reasoning, we determine under what circumstances such a decision is good. We find that in some cases, taking pitches deterministically dominates not taking.

Verification Of The Weather Channel Probability Of Precipitation Forecasts, Eric Bickel, Seong Kim

Eric Bickel

The Weather Channel (TWC) is a leading provider of weather information to the general public. In this paper the reliability of their probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts over a 14-month period at 42 locations across the United States is verified. It is found that PoPs between 0.4 and 0.9 are well calibrated for near-term forecasts. However, overall TWC PoPs are biased toward precipitation, significantly so during the warm season (April–September). PoPs lower than 0.3 and above 0.9 are not well calibrated, a fact that can be explained by TWC’s forecasting procedure. In addition, PoPs beyond a 6-day lead time are …

The Relationship Between Perfect And Imperfect Information In A Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem, Eric Bickel

Eric Bickel

No abstract provided.

Quantifying 3d Land Seismic Reliability And Value, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. Mcvay, Stephen Pickering, John Waggoner

Eric Bickel

Seismic data provide essential information for guiding reservoir development. Improvements in data quality hold the promise of improving performance even further, provided that the value of these data exceed their cost. Previous work has demonstrated value-of-information (VoI) methods to quantify the value of seismic data. In these examples, seismic accuracy was obtained via expert assessment instead of being based on geophysical quantities. The modeled seismic information was not representative of any quantity that would be observed in a seismic image. Here we apply a more general VoI model that includes multiple targets, budgetary constraints, and quantitative models relating post-stack seismic …

Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks In Sequential Exploration Decisions, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith

Eric Bickel

Prospects in a common basin are likely to share geologic features. For example, if hydrocarbons are found at one location, they may be more likely to be found at other nearby locations. When making drilling decisions, we should be able to exploit this dependence and use drilling results from one location to make more informed decisions about other nearby prospects. Moreover, we should consider these informational synergies when evaluating multi-prospect exploration opportunities. In this paper, we describe an approach for modeling the dependence among prospects and determining an optimal drilling strategy that takes this information into account. We demonstrate this …

Globalization Of R&D And Developing Countries, Arash Golnam, Nader Ale Ebrahim, Ali Ghazizadeh

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Reflecting a broader trend towards the off shoring of services, a number of developing countries are attracting foreign direct investment in research and development. Transnational corporations, including the ones headquartered in developed countries, are selecting developing countries as locations for such activities. With the off shoring of research and development, firms aim to access the skills of new locations, adapting products to local markets and reducing their costs, in response to competitive pressures, technological changes and a more liberal trade and investment environment. In particular, information and communication technologies have had a profound effect on the way economic activities, including …

R&D Management In Iran, Opportunities And Threats, Nader Ale Ebrahim, Ali Ghazizadeh, Arash Golnam, Hamid Tahbaz Tavakoli

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Research and Development (R&D) management in Iran has faced many barriers and obstacles, in which R&D units are considered as the basic core of the product development and innovation. Due to structural shortcomings, a great number of organizations and industries have not yet been able to position themselves in the market. There are about 1141 R&D units throughout Iran, due to the geographical decentralization of these units this paper considers and analyzes the R&D case study in one of the provinces located in the north part of Iran, and the findings can be generalized to the other industrialized areas and …

Some Comparisons Among Quadratic, Spherical, And Logarithmic Scoring Rules, Eric Bickel

Eric Bickel

Strictly proper scoring rules continue to play an important role in probability assessment. Although many such rules have been developed, relatively little guidance exists as to which rule is the most appropriate. In this paper, we discuss two important properties of quadratic, spherical, and logarithmic scoring rules. From an ex post perspective, we compare their rank order properties and conclude that both quadratic and spherical scoring perform poorly in this regard, relative to logarithmic. Second, from an ex ante perspective, we demonstrate that in many situations, logarithmic scoring is the method least affected by a nonlinear utility function. These results …

Heavy Duty Fleet And Transportation In Iran The Past, The Present Condition, The Future Perspectives And Its Interaction With Economy, Nader Ale Ebrahim, Arash Golnam

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Since the ancient times Iran has always played a significant role in the Transportation Industry due to its strategic position in the silk road that connected Asia to Europe and Middle East to .Ancient Iranians are believed to be the pioneers of land transportation in the world and transportation has always been considered as one of the most ancient and historical Industries in Iran . Nowadays in the third millennium Transportation Industry experts believe that Iran is once more located in a strategic and geopolitical position in the world in which , according to the economic analyses, the Transportation Industry …

Analysis Of Opportunities And Challenges For R&D Management And The Role Of The R&D Society For Its Improvement – A Case Study In Iran, Reza R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Nader Ale Ebrahim, Arash Golnam, M. Vasei, Ali Ghazizadeh-Moghaddam

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Research and Development (R&D) management in Iran is faced to many barriers and obstacles, in which R&D units are considered as the basic core of the product development and innovation. Due to structural shortcomings, a great number of organizations and industries have not been able to find their actual status. There are about different 1141 R&D units with a dispersion pattern in Iran. This paper considers and analyzes the R&D case study in one of the provinces located in the north part of Iran in order to enhance the potential R&D activities in respect with the industrialized areas and zones. …

Knowledge Management In Iran, Nader Ale Ebrahim, Ali Ghazizadeh, Arash Golnam

Nader Ale Ebrahim

In the highly competitive global market, only organizations survive in which, knowledge has replaced labor and natural resources as the key source of sustainable growth and development. The organizations that have learnt doing things differently and doing different things. In such organizations knowledge and learning are widely considered as sustainable sources of competitive advantage. In this paper first we take a look at the history and the pioneers of knowledge management in Iran analyzing the evolutionary trend of knowledge management and its current condition in Iran. Then we trace the emphasis put on knowledge management in the fourth economic, social …

Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith

Eric Bickel

In this paper, we develop a practical and flexible framework for evaluating sequential exploration strategies in the case where the exploration prospects are dependent. Our interest in this problem was motivated by an oil exploration problem, and our approach begins with marginal assessments for each prospect (e.g., what is the probability that the well is wet?) and pairwise assessments of the dependence between prospects (e.g., what is the probability that both wells i and j are wet?). We then use information-theoretic methods to construct a full joint distribution for all outcomes from these marginal and pairwise assessments. This joint distribution …

Some Determinants Of Corporate Risk Aversion, Eric Bickel

Eric Bickel

In this paper we roughly quantify the degree of risk aversion induced by three rationales for corporate risk management: the cost of financial distress, costly external finance, and the principal-agent relationship between shareholders and management. In so doing, we provide a foundation for the use of corporate utility functions. However, we are unable to fully support the degree of risk aversion reported in the decision analysis literature. Specifically, financial distress and costly external finance appear to induce relatively little risk aversion, while principal-agent concerns lend only partial support to published corporate risk tolerance guidelines.

Applying System Dynamics To Confront Complex Decision Making In R&D Systems#11;#11;: A Knowledge Based Approach, Arash Golnam, Nader Ale Ebrahim

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Research and development has always played a strategically important role in the survival and the growth of technology-based firms. R&D is positively linked to company performance measures such as sales, productivity and shareholder returns and in addition to this, facing increased competition, as a result of globalization the viability of many established firms is based on the efficiency of their R&D activities. Similar to other business models, R&D systems are characterized by complex structure and dynamic behavior. It's often difficult to predict or trace the consequences of certain decisions due to the existence of delays, non-linearities and causal feedback inherent …

Applying System Dynamics To Confront Complex Decision Making In R&D Systems, Arash Golnam, Nader Ale Ebrahim

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Research and development has always played a strategically important role in the survival and the growth of technology-based firms. R&D is positively linked to company performance measures such as sales, productivity and shareholder returns and in addition to this, facing increased competition, as a result of globalization the viability of many established firms is based on the efficiency of their R&D activities. Similar to other business models, R&D systems are characterized by complex structure and dynamic behavior. It's often difficult to predict or trace the consequences of certain decisions due to the existence of delays, non-linearities and causal feedback inherent …

Research, Development, Production And Performance Of Heavy Duty Cng Fleets In Iran, Nader Ale Ebrahim, Maziar Rostamnezhad, Ali Momeni

Nader Ale Ebrahim

n recent years, along with the trend toward clean air and less dependency to imported oil products, there has been increasing willing to use substitute fuels in transport industry. Automobile industry is an exhaustive industry bringing development for any country. The industrial capabilities needed for development rest in this branch of industry. The Iranian automobile making companies move in line with this aim. But in recent decades, in addition to development of automobile industry, the pollution too has occupied the minds of the authorities of these companies. Some measures, investments, researches, and exhaustive studies related to the pollution problem have …

The Biggest Experience To Reduce Environmental Pollutants By Substitute Fuel Cng In The Middle East & The Middle Asia, Ali Momeni, Maziar Rostamnezhad, Nader Ale Ebrahim

Nader Ale Ebrahim

Automobile industry is an exhaustive industry bringing development for any country. The industrial capabilities needed for development rest in this branch of industry. The Iranian automobile making companies move in line with this aim. But in recent decades, in addition to development of automobile industry, the pollution too has occupied the minds of the authorities of these companies. Some measures, investments, researches, and exhaustive studies related to the pollution problem have been made to produce an automobile of higher technology and lower pollution.

Teaching Decision Making With Baseball Examples, J. Eric Bickel

Eric Bickel

Sports examples can be wonderful vehicles for teaching OR/MS concepts. Baseball is particularly well suited to teaching statistics/probability, Markov decision processes, and decision analysis. This paper details a baseball example I developed to teach fundamental decision making skills. This example has been used successfully to teach decision making to undergraduates and graduates in technical and non-technical disciplines. It has also been used effectively in industry for training new MBAs and seasoned executives.

The Press For Help Project Concept, Program And Working Paper Of Emmanuel Mario B Santos And His Marc Guerrero Communications Inc., Emmanuel Mario B. Santos Aka Marc Guerrero

Emmanuel Mario B Santos aka Marc Guerrero

FORETHOUGHT. DECLARATION OF IDEAOLOGY AND PRINCIPLES. VISION. MISSION. VALUES. GOALS. BASIC HELP project. EDUCATIONAL HELP project. MEDICAL HELP project. LEGAL HELP project. EMERGENCY HELP project. LIVELIHOOD HELP project. SPIRITUAL and CULTURAL HELP project. ENVIRONMENTAL HELP project. REENGINEERING HELP project. INTERNATIONAL HELP project. QUADRO CREDO Matthew 5.1-12, the Jerusalem Bible. The Universal Filipino Beatitudes. SALIN SA FILIPINO. DESIDERATA. AFTERTHOUGHT.

Working Across Cultures, John Hooker

John Hooker

No abstract provided.

Logic-Based Methods For Optimization: Combining Optimization And Constraint Satisfaction, John Hooker

John Hooker

No abstract provided.

Optimization Methods For Logical Inference, Vijay Chandru, John Hooker

John Hooker

No abstract provided.

Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell

Jeffrey Keisler