Digital Commons Network^™

Microbial Community Structure In Global Soils, Matthew Jabro

CMC Senior Theses

Soil harbors the most diverse microbial communities on Earth, yet whether predictable community types exist across biomes and whether taxonomic composition encodes habitat of origin remain open questions at global scale. This thesis addresses both questions by applying unsupervised clustering and supervised classification to transformed 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) amplicon profiles from two independent datasets: the global topsoil survey of Bahram et al. (193 samples) and the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP) soil subset of Thompson et al. (2,209 samples). Application of a sample clustering method based on a mixture of Gaussian Graphical Models (MixGGM) identified 19 clusters in the topsoil …

Salary Caps And The Valuation Of U.S. Professional Sports Teams, Chase J. Cioe

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether salary caps affect the valuation of professional sports franchises in the NBA, NFL, and MLB over the 2003–2024 period. Amid ongoing debate over whether salary caps create financial value or simply redistribute it, this study asks whether capped leagues command a valuation premium relative to uncapped leagues. Using a balanced panel of 92 teams and 2,024 observations, the analysis employs random effects, league fixed effects, system GMM, and three natural experiments to identify the cap premium. The primary dependent variable is the year-over-year log growth in franchise value, d.ln(FV) = ln(FVt/FVt-1), which is stationary by design …

Prediction Markets Vs. Sportsbooks: A Comparison Of Nfl Forecast Accuracy, Dylan Cotti

CMC Senior Theses

This paper compares the forecast accuracy of Kalshi, a prediction market, and DraftKings, a sportsbook, using data from 285 NFL games in the 2025-26 season. I collect win probabilities from both platforms at three time points in the week before each game and measure accuracy using the Brier score. I find that Kalshi produces slightly more accurate predictions than DraftKings, but the gap is small and marginally significant. More surprisingly, both platforms become less accurate as the game approaches rather than more accurate. Once I control for differences in how each platform distributes its quoted probabilities, the accuracy gap largely …

Why Dining Out Stayed Cheap In Japan, Taketo Hayashi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines why food-away-from-home inflation in Japan was persistently lower than in the United States from 1995 to 2021 and why this dynamic changed after 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two structural buffers sustained the divergence: wage stagnation in Japan, which kept restaurant labor costs flat for nearly three decades, and a strong yen, which absorbed global commodity price shocks before they could reach restaurant menus. In 2008, the financial crisis sent food and energy prices skyrocketing. However, even though Japan imports most of its food and energy, the effects from global price increases were due to a strong …

Rethinking Reentry In The United States: A Comparative Analysis Of Incarceration Strategies In Norway, Singapore, And Austria, Amelia Ulmer

CMC Senior Theses

The prison reentry system in the United States remains a pressing social, economic, and political issue, as hundreds of thousands of prisoners are released each year with few resources to assist them with their transition. In fact, these previously incarcerated people are arguably set up to fail, which leads to over half of them reoffending within two years. This thesis analyzes how the United States should reform its current prison system based on lessons learned from three international case studies. These three case studies, Norway, Singapore, and Austria were chosen as countries that have globally low recidivism rates and unique …

Procedural Rhetoric And Prosociality: How Game Mechanics Shape Altruistic Decision-Making, Elijah Emory-Muhammad

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates how different prosocial video game designs influence subsequent altruistic behavior, specifically comparing interactive narratives with procedural rhetoric. While prior research demonstrates that prosocial games can prime helpful behaviors, less is known about the underlying mechanical structures driving these effects. Fifteen participants engaged with either an Interactive Narrative Game (ING) or a Procedural Rhetoric Game (PRG) before completing a resource allocation task (Dictator Game). Results revealed no statistically significant differences between the two conditions in promoting sacrificial altruism or satisfying basic psychological needs. Instead, participants across both groups demonstrated a strong adherence to an equality-seeking norm, consistently choosing …

Moving The Goalposts: Saudi Arabia, Football, And The Changing Rules Of Global Legitimacy, Sanskriti S. Kumar

CMC Senior Theses

Most commentary on Gulf state sports investment concludes that sportswashing fails: Saudi Arabia's favorability ratings remain low, its human rights situation has deteriorated, and Western public opinion shows no measurable improvement. This thesis argues that this conclusion applies the wrong standard. Asking whether Saudi Arabia has become more admired misses the more consequential question of whether it has become more accepted, and treating those two outcomes as equivalent produces misleading results. This thesis develops an original Normalization-Attraction Framework to evaluate whether the Saudi Public Investment Fund's October 2021 acquisition of Newcastle United Football Club has generated measurable political returns. The …

By The Light, Desiree Galamgam

CMC Senior Theses

On the island of Helios, the sun god, a water nymph finds comfort tending to the flora along  riverbanks. Clytie avoids her oceanid sisters’ poisonous proclivities. Modeling herself after the sun god’s incessant responsibilities, she spends her existence working. Only taking breaks to perch herself at the top of her alcove’s hill to watch Helios drive his chariot to rise and set the sun, she sees him as the epitome of perfection and freedom.

Her tranquil life is interrupted by the sudden arrival of Helios himself at the footsteps of her isolated cave. Clytie begins to feel new emotions as …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

The History Of Mass Incarceration And Its Implications, Evan Sevaly

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I develop a model to answer four questions about US incarceration: why did incarceration increase between 1973 to 2009, why have incarceration figures experienced an overall decrease since then, and what explains their oscillation, why has the penal system consistently incarcerated marginalized groups at disproportionate rates, and why is the US an incarceration outlier compared to other industrialized countries? I split the competing explanations to these questions into four schools of thought: the perspective that neoliberalism caused mass incarceration, the perspective that surpluses in finance capital, land, population, and state capacity caused mass incarceration, the perspective that …

The Impact Of The Filibuster On The Ideological Composition Of The Judiciary, James Cullers

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether the 2013 Senate filibuster reform–the so-called "nuclear option"–changed the ideological composition of federal judicial nominees and whether that change translated into different confirmation outcomes. Using ideology scores from the Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections (DIME) matched to a dataset of all federal judicial nominees from 2000 to 2024, we separate the judicial selection process into two stages: presidential nomination and Senate confirmation. At the nomination stage, we find that post-2013 nominees were approximately 71% more likely to be ideologically extreme by pre-reform standards, a large and statistically significant shift consistent with presidents responding …

Constitutional Rights, Human Dignity, And The American Dream: A Historical Analysis Of U.S. Immigration Policy After 9/11, Shelby Mcilroy

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how United States immigration policy transformed after September 11, 2001 and asks whether modern immigration enforcement remains consistent with constitutional principles, human rights protections, and the broader ideals associated with the American Dream. The project investigates how immigration shifted from a primarily civil administrative system into one increasingly defined by surveillance, detention, and punishment. The central question guiding this research is whether the securitization of immigration has reshaped not only enforcement practices, but also the meaning of constitutional protections and human dignity for both citizens and noncitizens.

To answer this question, this thesis conducts a historical policy …

Pesos For Pesos And No One Feels At Home: Gentrification And Displacement In Mexico City, Sophia L. Castellanos

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates how gentrification and displacement have affected Mexico City, providing historical context and reasoning behind current policies for digital nomads and tourists. It examines policies enacted in similar cities such as Barcelona, Amsterdam, and Venice, which face challenges from increased tourism and short-term rentals like Airbnb. The thesis also reviews these regulations, highlighting their successes and limitations, and offers recommendations for integrating some of these strategies into Mexico City’s 2024 Tourism Law. Additionally, it explores public innovation strategies that could promote collaborations between the government and communities rather than complete government control. Finally, the paper discusses the challenges …

Family, Stability, Mentors & Money: Student Definitions Of Success, Arturo Caldera

CMC Senior Theses

This research takes a deep dive into the factors shaping marginalized communities’ educational experiences, particularly for low-income Latino students from migrant backgrounds navigating public schooling spaces. Across sixteen qualitative interviews, participant narratives reveal how a systemic lack of resources at the institutional, interpersonal, and structural levels undermines the quality of support students receive and shapes their academic trajectories. Grounded in student-centered practices and informed by scholarship in multicultural education, Chicanx/Latinx studies, feminism, and psychology, this study contributes to ongoing efforts to move beyond deficit-based frameworks and instead recognize the cultural wealth, knowledge, and resilience students bring from their homes and …

Spatial Spillovers In Emergency Lending: Evidence From Bayesian Quantile Models Of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Lending During The Great Depression, Oncel Aldanmaz

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates whether emergency lending by the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) generated spatial spillovers across U.S. counties between 1932 and 1936. Using a monthly panel of 2,979 counties constructed from digitized RFC card index records, we estimate Bayesian quantile regression models for binary longitudinal data (QBLD) that allow spillover effects to vary across the conditional distribution of lending propensity. Neighboring lending exposure is positively associated with own-county lending outcomes across a wide range of quantiles and subsamples, with the strongest effects at the lower tail, where counties are least likely to receive lending. This pattern is consistent with a …

The Original Joe Rogan: Evidence From Walter Winchell And American Political Outcomes, Quinten E. Carney

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of the first entertainment-news figures in American history. Walter Winchell seamlessly mixed celebrity gossip, political news, and personal attacks to create one of the most popular radio programs in the 1930s and 1940s. As a propagandist for Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR), he supported the New Deal, American involvement in World War II, and anti-fascism. Replicating early Irregular Terrain Model (ITM) work, I find that exposure to Winchell had no effect on voting outcomes or support for WWII through war-bond sales.  I explore potential channels of influence in a consolidated media ecosystem that existed during Winchell’s time.

From Statute To Classroom: The Implementation Gap In California's Queer-Relevant Sex Education Policy, Alejandro Quiroz-Novela

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines why strong sex education laws do not reliably translate into consistent classroom experiences for LGBTQ+ students. Using a qualitative single-case study of California, it traces the evolution from SB 71 (2003) to the California Healthy Youth Act (CHYA) (2016) and analyzes how mandates move through a decentralized governance chain. Drawing on statutes, legislative records, state guidance, curriculum review tools, advocacy reports, media accounts, and public indicators, the study focuses on implementation mechanisms rather than estimating causal health effects. Three findings emerge: CHYA sets a clear legal floor but is difficult to verify at scale; district discretion and …

Neuroimaging Correlates Of Differences In Learning From Repeated Probabilistic Outcomes, Allison E. Rudolph

CMC Senior Theses

Learning from experience requires integrating feedback over time, yet individuals vary widely in how effectively they extract structure from probabilistic environments. This study examined how such variability relates to neural responses in the ventral striatum (vStr), caudate nucleus, hippocampus, and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). Seventy-four participants across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood completed a modified Iowa Gambling Task during fMRI scanning, choosing whether to play or pass on four machines differing in expected value and variance. Behavioral learning slopes, calculated across six runs for each machine, were used to classify participants as learners or non-learners. Learners showed clearer improvement over time …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Fair Value And Funding Structures: Motivators Behind Banks' Reclassification Activities., Thomas Walker

CMC Senior Theses

U.S financial regulations and reporting standards are ever-changing and have a significant impact on how banks classify and oversee their assets. The implementation of ASC 320 in 1993, as well as ASC 820 and ASC 825-10 in 2008, altered the effects of fair value accounting. This study examines factors that drive banks to use the held-to-maturity (HTM) and available-for-sale (AFS) classifications following the implementation of ASC 825-10 during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I focus on how banks use the HTM classification to obscure the accurate valuation of their securities by failing to disclose unrealized gains or losses, and on …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Sinking City To Breakthrough City: A Political Analysis And Evaluation Of Indonesia's Capital City Relocation From Jakarta To Nusantara, Yuji Jones

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes Indonesia’s national decision to move its capital city from Jakarta to Nusantara. Indonesia is facing a dire catastrophe in its most populous city. The land surrounding Jakarta is sinking, and without significant mitigation efforts, the streets will be submerged by 2045. This is a slow-motion disaster coming for Indonesia and Jakarta. This left the country with a crucial decision: to save the capital city. In response to this environmental crisis, Indonesia’s government has committed to making a nationwide and ambitious decision to move the capital to Nusantara, a smaller city bustling with tropical forests 1,000 kilometers away, …

Audit Pricing Under Asc 606: Evidence From Software-As-A-Service Technology Firms, Donald Weigle

CMC Senior Theses

ASC 606 is an accounting standard issued in May 2014 that fundamentally changed how firms identify performance obligations and recognize revenue. The standard requires a five-step framework that links recognition to the timing of customer contract satisfaction. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) firms were uniquely affected by this standard due to subscription-based pricing models and multi-element contracts that make revenue recognition more complex. For this thesis, I estimate the impact of adopting ASC 606 on SaaS firm audit fees. I hypothesize that more complex revenue recognition results in more complex audit procedures and, hence, higher fees. I use a Differences-in-Differences (DiD) regression model …

The Impact Of Asu 2023-08 On Reported Profitability Of Cryptocurrency-Exposed Firms, William C. Graff

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the performance of corporate cryptocurrency holdings in the context of recent accounting regulation changes. It specifically examines how adopting Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2023-08 has affected firms with material cryptocurrency exposure. Using a panel of U.S. public firms from 2019–2025, I classified 138 companies as having material crypto exposure if cryptocurrency comprised more than 0.01 percent of total assets, which was manually calculated. Of these firms, 67 were exposed to the rule change (under GAAP), 66 were not, and 5 were excluded from final calculations due to a lack of relevant information.

Results showed statistically significant effects …

Attention And Technical Analysis: State‑Dependent Predictability Of Cnn‑Based Stock Return Forecasts, Crystal Y. Ma

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies how investor attention around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements affects cross-sectional return predictability measured by a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on price charts. I replicate Jiang, Kelly, and Xiu’s (2023) image-based CNN using 20-day OHLCV “price images,” train it on U.S. equities from 1993–2000, freeze the model, and apply it out of sample to 2001–2024 CRSP data. The CNN assigns each stock a weekly probability of outperforming which is then sorted into deciles that form high–minus–low (H–L) long–short portfolios at horizons of 1 to 10 trading days. For matched non-FOMC (control) weeks, the equal-weighted CNN …

Investor Reactions To Clinical Trial Outcomes: Interpreting Impacts Using Ai-Based Measures Of Investor Sentiment, Sofia K. Weinstein

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how investors react to biotechnology firms’ clinical trial announcements and whether artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance our understanding of those market reactions. Using a representative sample of 95 firm-event observations between 2014 and 2025, the study measures cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) surrounding clinical readouts, regulatory decisions, and partnership disclosures. Event-study regressions test for heterogeneity across trial phase, therapeutic area, and textual sentiment derived from company press releases. Consistent with expectations, later-phase trials, particularly Phase II and III, produce stronger short-term abnormal returns. However, categorical variables such as phase or therapeutic area explain little of the total variation …

Policy Recommendations To Reduce False Confessions By Juveniles In Wrongful Conviction Cases, Rohit R. Iyer

CMC Senior Theses

This research focuses on false confessions by juveniles in the United States justice system. False confessions are statements made by suspects during investigations in which individuals provide statements to investigators admitting to a crime in which they had no part. In these cases, individuals often spend years, if not the entirety, of their lives behind bars for crimes they did not commit. False confessions are the result of a number of systemic factors that will be discussed in this paper. While relatively rare, they are one of the largest blemishes in the U.S. justice system. Juveniles – individuals below the …

Has Liberalism Failed? Analyzing The New Right’S Critique Of Liberalism Through Its Historical Arc, Frederick (Gus) G. Mahler

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the historical evolution of American political culture to evaluate whether liberalism is responsible for the social and political crises confronting the United States today. Although liberalism has been foundational to American governance and national identity since the country’s inception, a growing movement known broadly as the New Right now claims that it has failed and must be replaced. I seek to assess the legitimacy of this claim.

Using qualitative historical analysis, I trace how the form liberalism takes and the role it occupies in America’s political order has changed throughout the nation’s development. Liberalism was not always …

Determinants Of The U.S. Experience Economy: A Macroeconomic, Demographic, And Technological Analysis, 1984–2023, Chloe Ross

CMC Senior Theses

Pine and Gilmore et al. 1999 examine American consumers’ preferences for experiences over durable goods. Since then, there has been a multitude of research on the psychology behind this shift in consumption preferences, and there has been an abundance of media coverage of the new “experience economy.” This thesis goes beyond psychology and examines the macroeconomic, demographic, and technological determinants of experiential spending in the United States from 1984 to 2023. I use annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) and variables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), US …