Digital Commons Network^™

Neuroimaging Correlates Of Differences In Learning From Repeated Probabilistic Outcomes, Allison E. Rudolph

CMC Senior Theses

Learning from experience requires integrating feedback over time, yet individuals vary widely in how effectively they extract structure from probabilistic environments. This study examined how such variability relates to neural responses in the ventral striatum (vStr), caudate nucleus, hippocampus, and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). Seventy-four participants across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood completed a modified Iowa Gambling Task during fMRI scanning, choosing whether to play or pass on four machines differing in expected value and variance. Behavioral learning slopes, calculated across six runs for each machine, were used to classify participants as learners or non-learners. Learners showed clearer improvement over time …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Fair Value And Funding Structures: Motivators Behind Banks' Reclassification Activities., Thomas Walker

CMC Senior Theses

U.S financial regulations and reporting standards are ever-changing and have a significant impact on how banks classify and oversee their assets. The implementation of ASC 320 in 1993, as well as ASC 820 and ASC 825-10 in 2008, altered the effects of fair value accounting. This study examines factors that drive banks to use the held-to-maturity (HTM) and available-for-sale (AFS) classifications following the implementation of ASC 825-10 during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I focus on how banks use the HTM classification to obscure the accurate valuation of their securities by failing to disclose unrealized gains or losses, and on …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Sinking City To Breakthrough City: A Political Analysis And Evaluation Of Indonesia's Capital City Relocation From Jakarta To Nusantara, Yuji Jones

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes Indonesia’s national decision to move its capital city from Jakarta to Nusantara. Indonesia is facing a dire catastrophe in its most populous city. The land surrounding Jakarta is sinking, and without significant mitigation efforts, the streets will be submerged by 2045. This is a slow-motion disaster coming for Indonesia and Jakarta. This left the country with a crucial decision: to save the capital city. In response to this environmental crisis, Indonesia’s government has committed to making a nationwide and ambitious decision to move the capital to Nusantara, a smaller city bustling with tropical forests 1,000 kilometers away, …

Audit Pricing Under Asc 606: Evidence From Software-As-A-Service Technology Firms, Donald Weigle

CMC Senior Theses

ASC 606 is an accounting standard issued in May 2014 that fundamentally changed how firms identify performance obligations and recognize revenue. The standard requires a five-step framework that links recognition to the timing of customer contract satisfaction. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) firms were uniquely affected by this standard due to subscription-based pricing models and multi-element contracts that make revenue recognition more complex. For this thesis, I estimate the impact of adopting ASC 606 on SaaS firm audit fees. I hypothesize that more complex revenue recognition results in more complex audit procedures and, hence, higher fees. I use a Differences-in-Differences (DiD) regression model …

The Impact Of Asu 2023-08 On Reported Profitability Of Cryptocurrency-Exposed Firms, William C. Graff

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the performance of corporate cryptocurrency holdings in the context of recent accounting regulation changes. It specifically examines how adopting Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2023-08 has affected firms with material cryptocurrency exposure. Using a panel of U.S. public firms from 2019–2025, I classified 138 companies as having material crypto exposure if cryptocurrency comprised more than 0.01 percent of total assets, which was manually calculated. Of these firms, 67 were exposed to the rule change (under GAAP), 66 were not, and 5 were excluded from final calculations due to a lack of relevant information.

Results showed statistically significant effects …

Attention And Technical Analysis: State‑Dependent Predictability Of Cnn‑Based Stock Return Forecasts, Crystal Y. Ma

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies how investor attention around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements affects cross-sectional return predictability measured by a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on price charts. I replicate Jiang, Kelly, and Xiu’s (2023) image-based CNN using 20-day OHLCV “price images,” train it on U.S. equities from 1993–2000, freeze the model, and apply it out of sample to 2001–2024 CRSP data. The CNN assigns each stock a weekly probability of outperforming which is then sorted into deciles that form high–minus–low (H–L) long–short portfolios at horizons of 1 to 10 trading days. For matched non-FOMC (control) weeks, the equal-weighted CNN …

Investor Reactions To Clinical Trial Outcomes: Interpreting Impacts Using Ai-Based Measures Of Investor Sentiment, Sofia K. Weinstein

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how investors react to biotechnology firms’ clinical trial announcements and whether artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance our understanding of those market reactions. Using a representative sample of 95 firm-event observations between 2014 and 2025, the study measures cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) surrounding clinical readouts, regulatory decisions, and partnership disclosures. Event-study regressions test for heterogeneity across trial phase, therapeutic area, and textual sentiment derived from company press releases. Consistent with expectations, later-phase trials, particularly Phase II and III, produce stronger short-term abnormal returns. However, categorical variables such as phase or therapeutic area explain little of the total variation …

Policy Recommendations To Reduce False Confessions By Juveniles In Wrongful Conviction Cases, Rohit R. Iyer

CMC Senior Theses

This research focuses on false confessions by juveniles in the United States justice system. False confessions are statements made by suspects during investigations in which individuals provide statements to investigators admitting to a crime in which they had no part. In these cases, individuals often spend years, if not the entirety, of their lives behind bars for crimes they did not commit. False confessions are the result of a number of systemic factors that will be discussed in this paper. While relatively rare, they are one of the largest blemishes in the U.S. justice system. Juveniles – individuals below the …

Has Liberalism Failed? Analyzing The New Right’S Critique Of Liberalism Through Its Historical Arc, Frederick (Gus) G. Mahler

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the historical evolution of American political culture to evaluate whether liberalism is responsible for the social and political crises confronting the United States today. Although liberalism has been foundational to American governance and national identity since the country’s inception, a growing movement known broadly as the New Right now claims that it has failed and must be replaced. I seek to assess the legitimacy of this claim.

Using qualitative historical analysis, I trace how the form liberalism takes and the role it occupies in America’s political order has changed throughout the nation’s development. Liberalism was not always …

Determinants Of The U.S. Experience Economy: A Macroeconomic, Demographic, And Technological Analysis, 1984–2023, Chloe Ross

CMC Senior Theses

Pine and Gilmore et al. 1999 examine American consumers’ preferences for experiences over durable goods. Since then, there has been a multitude of research on the psychology behind this shift in consumption preferences, and there has been an abundance of media coverage of the new “experience economy.” This thesis goes beyond psychology and examines the macroeconomic, demographic, and technological determinants of experiential spending in the United States from 1984 to 2023. I use annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) and variables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), US …

10 Years Of The Hive: Successes, Challenges, And Lessons For Designing Creative Learning Hubs In Higher Education, Celine Bernhardt-Lanier

CMC Senior Theses

College students are often told to be “innovative” and to prepare themselves for a rapidly changing job market. Yet, most institutional learning environments are built for everything but that, focusing on efficiency, mastery, and content delivery. The Hive, formerly known as the Rick and Susan Sontag Center for Collaborative Creativity, pushes against this reality in higher ed. Founded ten years ago and nestled in a corner of East 7th Street in Claremont, California, the Hive brings together students, faculty, and staff through workshops, classes, skillshares, and events that are centered around making, reflecting, and collaborating. Drawing on eight semi-structured …

Medical And Recreational Cannabis In Colorado: Evidence From County-Level Sales And Medical Cards, Ethan Sattley

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Colorado’s cannabis market transitioned after recreational legalization by analyzing county-level medical card registrations and the medical share of cannabis sales from 2010–2020. Using an event-study design, I find that medical participation remained stable for several years after recreational sales began in 2014, but then declined sharply, by roughly 50–60 cards per 10,000 residents, about ten quarters after legalization. Using annual sales data, I show that the medical share of total cannabis revenue collapsed much more quickly, falling by more than half between 2014 and 2015 and converging near zero in most counties by the late 2010s. …

Auditor Independence And Its Impact On Debt Financing Outcomes, Harry Zhou

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates whether perceived auditor independence, proxied through proportions of non-audit service fees and client dependence of the auditor, is associated with the outcome of debt contracts. While prior research examines how these proxies relate to auditor independence itself, and other strands of literature assess how audit quality influences debt contracting, few studies evaluate whether lenders interpret auditor independence signals in ways consistent with auditors. This study aims to contribute to the broader literature by examining the auditor independence proxies and its direct relationship to debt contract structure holistically. Two OLS models were employed to investigate the relationship between …

Politics Of A Silent Pandemic: Antimicrobial Resistance And State Capacity In India And Nigeria, Mia Kelly

CMC Senior Theses

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) has emerged as one of the most pressing yet widely underestimated health threats of the 21st century; this thesis explores the potentially devastating global impact of this “silent pandemic”, exposing how deeply health outcomes depend on political choices, regulatory capacity, and economic constraints. Although the danger of spreading drug-resistant pathogens is now widely acknowledged in both the scientific and political communities, states differ in their abilities to contain the issue, with low- and middle-income countries facing the greatest obstacles to national action plan implementation. This thesis investigates these disparities through a comparison of India and Nigeria, two …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

Keeping America Ahead: The Global Chip Conundrum, Ethan Chen

CMC Senior Theses

Semiconductors underpin nearly every aspect of modern economic, military, and technological power. Yet while the United States pioneered chip innovation and design, it now heavily depends on foreign manufacturing, particularly Taiwan and the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company who produce more than 90% of the world’s leading edge chips. This thesis investigates how the U.S. lost its fabrication leadership, what risks its current dependence creates, and what strategies can most effectively restore domestic capacity and resilience in both the short term and long term. By going through historical analysis of industrial development, recent policy evaluation such as export controls and the …

An Examination Of Sycophantic Llms: The Case For Withholding Judgement, Josephine C. Albrecht

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates sycophancy in large language models (LLMs) and argues that although agreement can be socially appealing, it introduces serious epistemic and moral risks. Through Mrinank Sharma’s experiments, I show that sycophancy emerges reliably across major AI assistants, which adjust their responses to match users’ beliefs; even when those beliefs are incorrect. I explain how deep learning and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) shape these behaviors, and why models learn to prioritize user satisfaction over truth. While agreement can build trust, mimic expert testimony, and satisfy human preferences, it also produces epistemic bubbles and misplaced confidence. These risks …

Maternity Leave And Women’S Leadership In A Changing Work Environment: Global Evidence, Josefine Byström

CMC Senior Theses

Family leave policies play a central role in shaping women’s participation and advancement in the labor market. This study investigates whether the relationship between maternity leave duration and women’s labor outcomes has changed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a cross-country panel spanning multiple years with fixed effects, this study examines two related outcomes: women’s labor force participation and representation in leadership. Prior to 2011, maternity leave duration displayed opposite non-linear patterns across these outcomes: an inverted U-shape for labor force participation, peaking at moderate leave lengths, and a U-shape for women’s leadership, which improved only at longer durations …

The Politics Of Russian Regional Development, Claire Moore

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines why Chechnya’s independence movement shifted from a secular nationalist struggle in the First Chechen War (1994–1996) to a religiously framed insurgency in the interwar period and Second Chechen War (1999–2000; 2007). Drawing on presidential speeches, interviews, archival materials, and secondary scholarship, it argues that religious radicalization cannot be explained solely by external influence or Russian military brutality. Instead, three underexplored variables–strategic economic appeals to the Islamic world, culturally-embedded practices of vengeance, and the enabling conditions of poverty and mass armament–collectively shaped this transformation. Chechen leaders increasingly emphasized Islamic identity to secure financial and military support from Middle …

Audit Fee Spillovers Following Sec Scrutiny: Evidence From Auditor Portfolio Effects, Rakhshaan R. Adamjee

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether audit firms reprice clients that are not under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) review when a greater share of the auditor’s other clients face SEC scrutiny. Results indicate economically meaningful pricing spillovers. In the full sample, a ten-percentage-point increase in auditor-level exposure is associated with approximately 2% higher fees for non-scrutinized clients. The effect is stronger for Big Four networks: the Big Four slope is about 3.6% per ten points, and a Big Four only replication yields roughly 8.9%. Among Big Four, measuring exposure at the signing-office level also produces a positive but smaller association (~0.4% …

The Tcja And Shareholder Payouts, Carson T. Bloom

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided corporations an estimated $233 billion in tax savings, yet relatively little is known about how firms allocated this cash windfall. This study examines whether growth and mature firms differed in whether they used these tax savings to distribute dividends and repurchase shares. Using panel data on publicly traded North American firms from 2016–2019, I classify firms as either growth or mature based on their cash-flow patterns and estimate the effects of the TCJA on their behavior using a difference-in-differences design.

The results indicate that mature firms increased shareholder payouts significantly more …

Criminalizing Motherhood: Abortion, Obstetric Emergencies, And State Power In Post-1998 El Salvador, Valery M. Reyes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how a series of regressive legal reforms in El Salvador–the 1997 Penal Code’s expansion of abortion-related punishments and the 1999 constitutional amendment defining life as beginning at conception–eliminated all exceptions to abortion and transformed a woman’s reproductive body into a site of surveillance. Rather than expanding rights, these reforms rolled back on existing protections by not recognizing obstetric emergencies, miscarriages, or cases of rape as legitimate grounds for abortion. Prosecutors and judges could treat such medical emergencies as convictions for “fetal homicide,” carrying sentences of 30-50 years in prison.

Court documents, reports from non-government organizations …

Beyond Guns And Butter: Structural Fiscal Priorities And The Politics Of Welfare In Oecd Economies, 2000-2023, Nyassa Garg

CMC Senior Theses

The “guns vs. butter” debate has long framed the tension between military and welfare spending, but this thesis reveals that the tradeoff is far more complex than traditionally assumed. This study re-examines the tradeoff in OECD economies from 2000 to 2023, using fixed-effects and within-between Mundlak models to distinguish between short-run adjustments and long-run structural patterns. My results show no clear evidence of year-to-year substitution; instead, welfare commitments in advanced OECD countries are institutionally rigid and insulated from contemporaneous military spending pressures. Crowding out primarily presents itself as a structural pattern—countries with consistently higher military burdens allocate a smaller share …

Esg And Misvaluation In U.S. Equity Markets, Rohaan Bhojwani

CMC Senior Theses

Existing research has produced conflicting conclusions on whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics are efficiently priced in equity markets. While some studies argue that ESG performance improves firm value through lower risk and stronger fundamentals, others suggest that investor demand has inflated valuations in the past beyond intrinsic worth. This thesis examines whether ESG-driven valuation gaps represent justified pricing through firm fundamentals or systematic mispricing using Bartram and Grinblatt’s Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Framework (2018).

For this paper, I analyze the top 1000 U.S public firms by market value. I regress the market value on 19 accounting fundamentals for these …

Federal Credit And Post-Disaster Economic Recovery: A County-Level Study Of Sba Lending From 2002 - 2022, Tanveer Singh Chabba

CMC Senior Theses

The United States Small Business Administration (SBA) is a government organization founded in 1953 that plays a central role in disaster response by providing capital contracts and low-interest loans to affected firms and households. This thesis will examine whether the SBA’s disaster lending program supports county-level economic recovery in the aftermath of a disaster period. My initial hypothesis is that after a natural disaster, an increase in SBA loan activity should help mitigate income losses and support economic recovery, leading to a consistent level of county-level Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) growth in future years. Using a constructed dataset that links …

Loan-Heavy Aid: Consequences On Academic And Early-Career Outcomes, April Zhang

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines how the composition of financial aid, specifically the balance between loans and grants, shapes students’ academic performance, major selection, and early career outcomes. Using administrative data from the University of California system (2007-2019) and post-graduation records from UC Irvine, I analyze how loan reliance influences both educational trajectories and labor-market results. The key measure, loanshare, captures the fraction of total aid financed through loans rather than grants. This allows for comparisons among students with similar financial need, expected family contribution, and total aid levels. Results show that students with more loan-heavy aid packages earn significantly lower …