Digital Commons Network^™

Simple Climate Models To Illustrate How Bifurcations Can Alter Equilibria And Stability, Christopher M. Herald, Satoko Kurita, Aleksey S. Telyakovskiy

Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education

Climate change is, by its nature, a truly interdisciplinary topic. While college level science classes now frequently include exposure to climate change issues, not all science majors, math majors and future math K-12 teachers are likely to see climate issues in the course of their studies. Here we present one self-contained topic that can be presented to those students without requiring too much additional explanation about climate change issues. This case study also can serve to illustrate the rather sophisticated concept of a "tipping point" to a diverse science audience without advanced training in dynamical systems. We consider the effect …

The Effects Of Changing Winds And Temperatures On The Oceanography Of The Ross Sea In The 21st Century, Walker O. Smith, Michael S. Dinniman, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck

CCPO Publications

The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating Antarctic sea ice and is biologically productive, which makes changes in the region's physical environment of global concern. We examined the effects of projected changes in atmospheric temperatures and winds on aspects of the ocean circulation likely important to primary production using a high-resolution sea ice-ocean-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea. The modeled summer sea-ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The duration of shallow mixed layers over the continental shelf increased by 8.5 and 19.2days in 2050 and 2100, and the mean summer mixed layer depths …

Snowshoe Hares Display Limited Phenotypic Plasticity To Mismatch In Seasonal Camouflage, Marketa Zimova, L. Scott Mills, Paul M. Lukacs, Michael S. Mitchell

Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences Faculty Publications

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was …

Post-Den Emergence Behavior And Den Detection Of Polar Bears (Ursus Maritimus) In Northern Alaska And The Southern Beaufort Sea, Rusty Wade Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

Pregnant polar bears (Ursus maritimus) construct maternal dens out of snow in the autumn where they give birth to and raise altricial young. In recent years, there has been a decrease in polar sea ice extent and thickness, which has led to changes in denning behavior. One such change in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) is that polar bears are selecting maternal den sites on land, rather than on unstable sea ice. This change, coupled with expanding petroleum exploration along Alaska's North Slope, heightens the likelihood of bear-human interactions at maternal den sites. The purpose of this research …

Hydrologic And Erosion Responses To Wildfire Along The Rangeland-Xeric Forest Continuum In The Western Us: A Review And Model Of Hydrologic Vulnerability, Christopher Jason Williams, Frederick B. Pierson, Peter R. Robichaud, Jan Boll

Articles

The recent increase in wildfire activity across the rangeland–xeric forest continuum in the western United States has landscape-scale consequences in terms of runoff and erosion. Concomitant cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) invasions, plant community transitions and a warming climate in recent decades along grassland–shrubland–woodland–xeric forest transitions have promoted frequent and large wildfires, and continuance of the trend appears likely if warming climate conditions prevail. These changes potentially increase overall hydrologic vulnerability by spatially and temporally increasing soil exposure to runoff and erosion processes. Plot and hillslope-scale studies demonstrate burning may increase event runoff or erosion by factors of 2–40 over …

Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Implications For Agriculture And Water Resources, George B. Frisvold, Kazim Konyar

Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education

This study examines how the proposed American Clean Energy and Security Act (H.R. 2454) would affect U.S. agriculture with special reference to water resources. The bill's cap and trade provisions for greenhouse gases would significantly raise fertilizer, irrigation pumping, and other energy-related costs. By 2030, it would reduce U.S. irrigation water use by >11 percent and fertilizer use by >18 percent with positive implications for water conservation and quality. Carbon offset provisions create financial incentives for farmers to sequester carbon by planting trees on cropland, reducing agricultural production and raising prices. Because sequestration potential differs by region, most of the …

Migration Plasticity As An Adaptation To Climate Change: The Spatial Distribution And Abundance Of A Subset Of Neotropical Migrant Landbirds Wintering In The Northeastern United States, Juliette Goulet

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

There is a need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships however are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, in order to test the hypothesis that climate constraints of winter bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather and climate, I relied on Christmas Bird Count data (CBC). With nearly 100 years of data, the CBC is a valuable source of information on historic and recent changes in the status and distribution of birds during the early winter period in the United States and …

How Important Is Land-Based Foraging To Polar Bears (Ursus Maritimus) During The Ice-Free Season In Western Hudson Bay? An Examination Of Dietary Shifts, Compositional Patterns, Behavioral Observations And Energetic Contributions, Linda J. Gormezano

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Trophic mismatches between predators and their prey are increasing as climate change causes decoupling of phenological relationships. Predators linked to the life histories of a particular prey will have a more difficult time persisting through environmental change unless they can alter their behavior to maintain the historical match or possess the ability to pursue alternate prey. Arctic predators typically possess flexible foraging strategies to survive in the labile environment, however, quantifying the limits of those strategies can be difficult when life history information is incomplete. In such cases, piecing together different aspects of a predator's foraging behavior, particularly when environmental …

Management For Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Suppression: Does Relevant Science Support Current Policy?, Diana Six, Eric Biber, Elisabeth Long

Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences Faculty Publications

While the use of timber harvests is generally accepted as an effective approach to controlling bark beetles during outbreaks, in reality there has been a dearth of monitoring to assess outcomes, and failures are often not reported. Additionally, few studies have focused on how these treatments affect forest structure and function over the long term, or our forests’ ability to adapt to climate change. Despite this, there is a widespread belief in the policy arena that timber harvesting is an effective and necessary tool to address beetle infestations. That belief has led to numerous proposals for, and enactment of, significant …

Religion, Partisanship, And Attitudes Toward Science Policy, Ted G. Jelen, Linda A. Lockett

Political Science Faculty Research

We examine issues involving science which have been contested in recent public debate. These “contested science” issues include human evolution, stem-cell research, and climate change. We find that few respondents evince consistently skeptical attitudes toward science issues, and that religious variables are generally strong predictors of attitudes toward individual issues. Furthermore, and contrary to analyses of elite discourse, partisan identification is not generally predictive of attitudes toward contested scientific issues.

Religion, Partisanship, And Attitudes Towards Science Policy, Ted G. Jelen, Linda A. Lockett

Political Science Faculty Research

We examine issues involving science which have been contested in recent public debate. These “contested science” issues include human evolution, stem-cell research, and climate change. We find that few respondents evince consistently skeptical attitudes toward science issues, and that religious variables are generally strong predictors of attitudes toward individual issues. Furthermore, and contrary to analyses of elite discourse, partisan identification is not generally predictive of attitudes toward contested scientific issues.

Warming, Soil Moisture, And Loss Of Snow Increase Bromus Tectorum’S Population Growth Rate, Aldo Compagnoni, Peter B. Adler

Green Canyon Environmental Research Area, Logan Utah

Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1) warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2) reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to …

Carbon–Temperature–Water Change Analysis For Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype For The Agmip Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3mp), Alex Ruane, Sonali Mcdermid, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Guillermo Baigorria, James W. Jones, Consuelo Romero, L. Dewayne Cecil

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for …

Library Journal Book Reviews, Michal Strutin

Staff publications, research, and presentations

Reviews of the following books: Fukushima: The Story of a Nuclear Disaster. 2014 Zero Waste Solution: Untrashing the Planet One Community at a Time. 2013 A Thousand Deer: Four Generations of Hunting and the Hill Country. 2012 The Last Lost World: Ice Ages, Human Origins, and the Invention of the Pleistocene. 2012 The Mindful Carnivore: A Vegetarian's Hunt for Sustenance. 2012 The Great Disruption: How the Climate Crisis Will Change Everything. 2011 Dinosaur Odyssey: Fossil Threads in the Web of Life. 2009 Eco Barons: The Dreamers, Schemers and Millionaires Who Are Saving Our Planet. 2009 Nature's Clocks: How Scientists Measure …

Identifying Legal, Ecological And Governance Obstacles, And Opportunities For Adapting To Climate Change, Barbara Cosens

Articles

No abstract provided.

On The Challenges Of Modeling The Net Radiative Forcing Of Wetlands: Reconsidering Mitsch Et Al. 2013, Scott C. Neubauer

Biology Publications

Wetlands play a role in regulating global climate by removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it as soil carbon, and by emitting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. In a recent article in this journal (Mitsch et al. Landscape Ecol 28:583–597, 2013), CO2 sequestration and CH4 emissions were modeled for several freshwater wetlands that vary in vegetation type, climate, and hydrology. The authors of that study made significant errors that caused them to underestimate the importance of wetland CH4 emissions on climate dynamics. Here, I reanalyze the Mitsch et al. dataset and show that …

Trophic Interactions And Dynamic Herbivore Responses To Snowpack, Jedediah F. Brodie, Eric Post, Joel Berger, Fred Watson

School of Natural Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Trophic interactions and population structure can shape how climate change influences ecosystems by modifying herbivore responses to environmental conditions. Predation can influence herbivore behaviour and demography, but how changes in predation and population structure affect herbivore distribution across abiotic gradients remains little known. We assessed whether predators altered the response of different age and sex classes of a dominant ungulate herbivore to changing abiotic conditions.

Results: Elk (Cervus elaphus) presence declined with increasing snowpack, particularly in late winter when their body condition had deteriorated. Females and juveniles exhibited strong but constant negative responses to snowpack throughout the winter, although …

A Cultural Heritage Management Methodology For Assessing The Vulnerabilities Of Archaeological Sites To Predicted Climate Change Focuing On Ireland's Two World Heritage Sites, Caithleen Daly

Doctoral

The affect climate change will have on cultural heritage preservation poses a global challenge and is being addressed by international organisations such as UNESCO and ICOMOS. The aim of this doctoral research is to assist heritage managers in understanding the implications of climate change for the sites in their care. It addresses the question of how to approach the assessment and measurement of climate change impacts on cultural heritage. The potential future effects of climate change on cultural heritage in temperate climates are discussed and current international practice in the management of climate change impacts on cultural heritage is investigated. …

Changing Forest Water Yields In Response To Climate Warming: Results From Long-Term Experimental Watershed Sites Across North America, Irena F. Creed, Adam T. Spargo, Julia A. Jones, Jim M. Buttle, Mary B. Adams, Fred D. Beall, Eric G. Booth, John L. Campbell, Dave Clow, Kelly Elder, Mark B. Green, Nancy B. Grimm, Chelcy Miniat, Patricia Ramlal, Amartya Saha, Stephen Sebestyen, Dave Spittlehouse, Shannon Sterling, Mark W. Williams, Rita Wrinkler, Huaxia Yao

United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment’s change in actual ET divided by P …

A Step By Step Look At Uarg V. Epa: A New Layer Of Greenhouse Gas Regulation, Kevin O. Leske

Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Remote Sensing Of Co2 Leakage From Geologic Sequestration Projects, Joshua L. Verkerke, David J. Williams, Eben Thoma

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

Monitoring for leak hazards is an important consideration in the deployment of carbon dioxide geologic sequestration. Failure to detect and correct leaks may invalidate any potential emissions benefits intended by such projects. Presented is a review of remote sensing methods primed to serve a central role in any monitoring program due to their minimally invasive nature and potential for large area coverage in a limited timeframe or in real-time as a continuous monitoring program. Methods investigated were divided into those capable of indirect detection of carbon dioxide leakage, such as monitoring for vegetative stress and ground surface deformation, and those …

Urban Desertification And A Phenomenology Of Sustainability: The Case Of El Paso, Texas, Jules Simon

Departmental Papers (Philosophy)

p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 8.5px Times} My thesis is that current cities and the way that cities are beingdeveloped is unsustainable and poses global problems for the long-termflourishing of the world’s inter-related and interdependent economies, formatters of justice and happiness in socio-cultural relations between peoples,and for the health of our natural environments. I argue that ‘urbandesertification’ happens in the complex relationship between cities (both urbanand suburban) and rural environments that support them as both a natural andethical phenomenon that I study using a form of analysis calledphenomenological ethics. First, I briefly present sketches of phenomenologyand sustainability in …

Effects Of River Current Inflow On Dissolved Oxygen And Temperature Of Refuge Zones For Cisco In Lake Bemidji, Bryant C. Swenson

Journal of Earth and Life Science

The objectives of this study were to (1) determine if the inflow current from the Mississippi River affects temperature and dissolved oxygen in Lake Bemidji, (2) determine how the amount of suitable cisco Coregonus artedi habitat changes over the summer in Lake Bemidji, and (3) predict how much cisco habitat would be available under a climate warming scenario. Summer fish kill of cisco occurs in most years on Lake Bemidji resulting from low dissolved oxygen in the hypolimnion and high water temperatures in the epilimnion. Dissolved oxygen and temperature profiles provided evidence to suggest the north basin is more suitable …

Mangrove Swamps: Sentinel Ecosystem In Front Of The Climatic Change, Gulf Of Mexico, Alejandro Yáñez-Arancibia, John W. Day, Robert R. Twilley, Richard H. Day

Faculty Publications

Considering the challenge that the economic, social and ecological systems face-in order to know and mitigate the global climate change-, evidences of the functional structure of mangroves ecological system are presented revisiting the hypothesis presented by Yáñez-Arancibia et al. (1998), and revised latter by Yáñez-Arancibia et al. (2010): “the mangroves as a critical forest habitat of the coastal zone present accommodation responses to the environmental variability that induces global change playing an structural and functional role in the stability of the coastline, the persistence of habitats and biodiversity, the metabolism of the ecosystem, reducing risks and uncertainty for the sustainable …

Nitrogen Fertilization Has A Stronger Effect On Soil Nitrogen-Fixing Bacterial Communities Than Elevated Atmospheric Co2, Sean T. Berthrong, Chris M. Yeager, Laverne Gallegos-Graves, Blaire Steven, Stephanie A. Eichorst, Robert B. Jackson, Cheryl R. Kuske

Scholarship and Professional Work - LAS

Biological nitrogen fixation is the primary supply of N to most ecosystems, yet there is considerable uncertainty about how N-fixing bacteria will respond to global change factors such as increasing atmospheric CO₂ and N deposition. Using the nifH gene as a molecular marker, we studied how the community structure of N-fixing soil bacteria from temperate pine, aspen, and sweet gum stands and a brackish tidal marsh responded to multiyear elevated CO₂ conditions. We also examined how N availability, specifically, N fertilization, interacted with elevated CO₂ to affect these communities in the temperate pine forest. Based on data …

Approaches To Restoration: Assessing The Roles Of Structure And Function In Saltmarsh Restoration In Light Of Climate Change, Abby O. Pearson Ms

All Student Scholarship

The aim of this thesis is to review the current goals and methods for salt marsh restoration, to question how those goals and methods may change in light of global change, and to present a case study that offers a look at the kinds of information that can be gleaned by studying both structure and functionality in restoration.

Integrated Remote Sensing And Forecasting Of Regional Terrestrial Precipitation With Global Nonlinear And Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals Using Wavelet Analysis, Lee Mullon

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on terrestrial climate dynamics throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that teleconnections can be used for climate prediction across a wide region at sub-continental scales. Yet these studies tend to have large uncertainties in estimates by utilizing simple linear analyses to examine chaotic teleconnection relationships. Still, non-stationary signals exist, making teleconnection identification difficult at the local scale. Part 1 of this research establishes short-term (10-year), linear and non-stationary teleconnection signals …

Drought-Induced Woody Plant Mortality In An Encroached Semi-Arid Savanna Depends On Topoedaphic Factors And Land Management, Dirac L. Twidwell Jr, Carissa L. Wonkka, Charles A. Taylor, Chris B. Zou, Jeremiah J. Twidwell, William E. Rogers

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Questions: How do recent patterns of drought-induced woody plant mortality in Texas semi-arid savanna compare to the extended drought of the 1950s? Does the relative composition of the woody plant community shift ubiquitously across the landscape following woody plant mortality and dieback or are shifts dependent on differences among species, soils, land use and plant demography?

Location: Texas Agrilife Research Station, Sonora, Texas, USA (30.1° N 100.3° W).

Methods: Following an exceptional drought from 1951 to 1957, a study was conducted to quantify rates of mortality for various woody plant species. In 2011, we repeated this study within three long-term …

Defining The Physiochemical, Biological And Habitat Requirements For The Upper Extant Of Oncorhynchus Mykiss Distribution, Emily Powers

Journal of Earth and Life Science

The distribution of rainbow trout is strongly influenced by their habitat. As climatic conditions change, the distribution of rainbow trout populations will change along with them. The objective of this study was to identify the particular habitat parameters that rainbow trout select for in this lotic system and to specifically assess how this relates to the upper extant of their distribution. By assessing the distribution of the upper extant specifically, future research may be conducted to better assess climatic changes on a small and/or large scale basis. A 9,000 m section of the Clearwater River was used as the study …

Linking Rainforest Ecophysiology And Microclimate Through Fusion Of Airborne Lidar And Hyperspectral Imagery, Eben N. Broadbent, Angélica M. Zambrano, Gregory P. Asner, Christopher B. Field, Brad E. Rosenheim, Ty Kennedy-Bowdoin, David E. Knapp, David Burke, Christian Giardina, Susan Cordell

Marine Science Faculty Publications

We develop and validate a high-resolution three-dimensional model of light and air temperature for a tropical forest interior in Hawaii along an elevation gradient varying greatly in structure but maintaining a consistent species composition. Our microclimate models integrate high-resolution airborne waveform light detection and ranging data (LiDAR) and hyperspectral imagery with detailed microclimate measurements. We then use modeled microclimate and forest structural and compositional variables to explain variation in spatially explicit measurements of leaf traits, including gas exchange and structure. Our results highlight the importance of: (1) species differences in leaf traits, with species explaining up to 65% of the …