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Investigation Of Climate Variability And Climate Change Impacts On Corn Yield In The Eastern Corn Belt, Usa, Ruoyu Wang

Open Access Dissertations

The increasing demand for both food and biofuels requires more corn production at global scale. However, current corn yield is not able to meet bio-ethanol demand without jeopardizing food security or intensifying and expanding corn cultivation. An alternative solution is to utilize cellulose and hemi-cellulose from perennial grasses to fulfill the increasing demand for biofuel energy. A watershed level scenario analysis is often applied to figure out a sustainable way to strike the balance between food and fuel demands, and maintain environment integrity. However, a solid modeling application requires a clear understanding of crop responses under various climate stresses. This …

A World In Flux : Envisioning Climate Change From An Ecocentric Perspective., Katlyn Brumfield

College of Arts & Sciences Senior Theses

No abstract provided.

A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, And Invasion Speed, Jacob P. Duncan

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of equilibria is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates …

Essays In Environmental Economics, Luke Fitzpatrick

Open Access Dissertations

Efficiently addressing climate change and waning our dependence on fossil fuels will prove central to ensuring a viable habitat for humanity in the coming centuries. Chapter 1 analyzes stabilization targets - widely employed and well-intentioned environmental policies that ultimately reduce global welfare. Chapter 2 quantifies a healthcare externality stemming from surface mining of coal. Chapter 3 uses a new, novel approach to estimating how the coal mining industry affects markets for residential real estate in three Appalachian counties.

Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang

GSCE Faculty Publications

Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset) with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the …

Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang

Geography Faculty Publications

Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset) with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the …

Climate Change And Hazardous Convective Weather In The United States: Insights From High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling, Kimberly A. Hoogewind

Open Access Dissertations

Global climate model (GCM) projections increasingly suggest that large-scale environmental conditions favorable for hazardous convective weather (HCW) may increase in frequency in the future due to anthropogenic climate change. However, this storm environment-based approach is undoubtedly limited by the assumption that convective-scale phenomena will be realized within these environments. The spatial resolution of GCMs remains much too coarse to adequately represent the scales at which severe convective storms occur, including processes that may lead to storm initiation. With the advancement of computing resources, however, it has now become feasible to explicitly represent deep convective storms within a high-resolution regional climate …

Climate Exactions, J. Peter Byrne, Kathryn A. Zyla

Maryland Law Review

No abstract provided.

Symbiont Type And Photophysiology Of Acropora Loripes And Platygyra Daedalea Under Future Scenarios Of Rising Ocean Temperatures And Pco2, Lauren Howe-Kerr

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral cover is declining at an alarming rate, and it is estimated that 60% of reefs worldwide may be lost by 2030. Elevated seawater temperatures and ocean acidification are contributing to an increase in the frequency and severity of bleaching events. These events disrupt the symbiosis between corals and their photosynthetic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium spp). Relatively little is known about the ability of corals to acclimatize to changing environmental conditions or whether the rate of climate change is too fast for corals to keep up, limiting the accuracy of future predictions for reef resilience. However, the ability of some coral species …

The Promise Of An Energy Tracker Curriculum For Promoting Home-School Connections And Youth Agency In Climate Action, Elizabeth M. Walsh, Derek Jenkins, Eugene Cordero

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Formal classroom learning experiences that support sustainable behaviors outside the classroom necessarily must bridge students’ home and school lives, as knowledge and practice learned in the classroom is implemented outside of school. To this end, we study the impact of the Green Ninja Energy Tracker curriculum, which uses students’ home energy data in the classroom to promote engagement in climate change and conservation behaviors. Data is drawn from class observations, a focus group, and pre- and post- surveys of a pilot implementation of this curriculum in a diverse 12th-grade Earth Science classroom at an alternative school. We investigate what factors …

Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova

Publications and Research

Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in the physical system. In this work, we build probabilistic models for long-term forecasts that include the GCM ensemble values as inputs but incorporate statistical correction of GCM biases and different treatments of uncertainty. Specifically, we present, and evaluate against observations, several versions of a probabilistic forecast for gridded air temperature 1 month ahead based on ensemble members of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 …

Intergovernmental Pilot Program, Ray Toll

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

No abstract provided.

Twentieth-Century Warming Preserved In A Geladaindong Mountain Ice Core, Central Tibetan Plateau, Yulan Zhang, Shichang Kang, Bjorn Grigholm, Yongjun Zhang, Susan Kaspari, Uwe Morgenstern, Jiawen Ren, Dahe Qin, Paul A. Mayewski, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Mika Sillanpää, Margit Schwikowski, Feng Chen

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

High-resolution δ¹⁸O records from a Geladaindong mountain ice core spanning the period 1477-1982 were used to investigate past temperature variations in the Yangtze River source region of the central Tibetan Plateau (TP). Annual ice-core δ¹⁸O records were positively correlated with temperature data from nearby meteorological stations, suggesting that the δ¹⁸O record represented the air temperature in the region. A generally increasing temperature trend over the past 500 years was identified, with amplified warming during the 20th century. A colder stage, spanning before the 1850s, was found to represent the Little Ice Age with colder …

Large-Scale Degradation Of A Kelp Ecosystem In An Ocean Warming Hotspot, Karen Filbee-Dexter, Colette Feehan, Robert E. Scheibling

Department of Biology Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Understanding the impacts of climate change on biological systems requires observational data over multi-decadal time spans and broad spatial scales. Extensive research at an ocean warming hotspot off Nova Scotia, Canada, enabled us to evaluate the impact of 3 decades of observed temperature rise on a coastal marine ecosystem. Here, we document changes in the kelp community from sites monitored since 1949, 1968 and 1984, and from coastal surveys in 1982, 2000, 2007 and 2014. We show that mean kelp biomass has declined by 85-99% over the past 4-6 decades, and a catastrophic phase shift has occurred from luxuriant kelp …

Can The Gulf Stream Induce Coherent Short-Term Fluctuations In Sea Level Along The Us East Coast?: A Modeling Study, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Much attention has been given in recent years to observations and models that show that variations in the transport of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and in the Gulf Stream (GS) can contribute to interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal variations in coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast. However, less is known about the impact of short-term (time scales of days to weeks) fluctuations in the GS and their impact on CSL anomalies. Some observations suggest that these anomalies can cause unpredictable minor tidal flooding in low-lying areas when the GS suddenly weakens. Can these short-term CSL variations …

Millets From The Margins: Value, Knowledge And The Subaltern Practice Of Biodiversity In Uttarakhand, India, Priya R. Chandrasekaran

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Millets from the Margins: Value, Knowledge and the Subaltern Practice of Biodiversity in Uttarakhand, India analyzes what is at stake for small-scale, predominantly women, farmers as local varieties of rainfed food grains such as finger millet are being newly commodified and valued as a biodiversity resource. With support from a Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant from the National Science Foundation, I conducted seventeen months of ethnographic research with farmers, activists, scientists, NGO leaders, government officials, transnational functionaries and agribusiness representatives in segregated yet interconnected realms ranging from a village in the Himalayan foothills to transnational institutions in Rome.

This work demonstrates …

Renewable Energy Consumption: Initiatives In Colorado And Washington, Robin K. Doroff

Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby

This paper examines the use of policy mechanisms to increase renewable energy consumption within the United States. In order to effectively measure the change of renewable energy consumption, I analyze two initiatives that promote energy consumption from renewable sources and overall increases in energy conservation. Colorado and Washington had approved initiatives in the years 2004 and 2006, respectively. Although the results are not entirely statistically significant, I find that the initiatives lead to increases in total renewable energy consumption and decreases in total energy use.

Community Conversation About Sea Level Rise Continues At Odu-Hosted Resilience Forum, Public Affairs & News Bureau, Old Dominion University

News Items

No abstract provided.

U.S. Secretary Of State Kerry Lauds Odu Initiatives During Climate Change Address, Public Affairs & News Bureau, Old Dominion University

News Items

No abstract provided.

Influence Of Sea Ice On Arctic Precipitation, Ben G. Kopec, Xiahong Feng, Fred A. Michel, Eric S. Posmentier

Dartmouth Scholarship

Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on …

Of Life And Limb: The Failure Of Florida's Water Quality Criteria To Test For Vibrio Vulnificus In Coastal Waters And The Need For Enhanced Criteria, Regulation, And Notification To Protect Public Health, Felicia Thomas

Student Works

The nefarious duo of warming oceans and rising sea levels has created a menacing yet lesser-known climate change-induced problem: an increase in sea-borne diseases. For most, the biggest concern when diving into the ocean is a possible, though exceedingly rare, shark encounter; however, it is the unexpected, unseen risk of Vibrio vulnificus that poses the greater danger. Part I of this paper discusses Vibrio vulnificus cases along the coasts of Florida, examining both the illnesses that were contracted through exposure of open wounds to seawater and those contracted through the consumption of raw oysters from the Gulf Coast. Part II …

Methane Emissions As Energy Reservoir: Context, Scope, Causes And Mitigation Strategies, Xiaoli Chai, David J. Tonjes, Devinder Mahajan

Technology & Society Faculty Publications

Methane (CH4) is now considered a bridge fuel between present fossil (carbon) economy and desired renewables and this energy molecule is projected to play an important role in the global energy mix well beyond 2035. The atmospheric warming potential of CH4 is 28-36 times, when averaged over a 100-year period, that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and this necessitates a close scrutiny of global CH4 emissions inventory. As the second most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG), the annual global CH4 emissions were 645 million metric tons (MMT), accounting for 14.3% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Of this, five key anthropogenic sources: …

A Global Meta-Analysis Of Forest Bioenergy Greenhouse Gas Emission Accounting Studies, T Buchholz, M D. Hurteau, J Gunn, David Saah

Environmental Science

The potential greenhouse gas benefits of displacing fossil energy with biofuels are driving policy development in the absence of complete information. The potential carbon neutrality of forest biomass is a source of considerable scientific debate because of the complexity of dynamic forest ecosystems, varied feedstock types, and multiple energy production pathways. The lack of scientific consensus leaves decision makers struggling with contradicting technical advice. Analyzing previously published studies, our goal was to identify and prioritize those attributes of bioenergy greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis that are most influential on length of carbon payback period. We investigated outcomes of 59 previously …

Potential Direct And Indirect Effects Of Climate Change On A Shallow Natural Lake Fish Assemblage, Jason J. Breeggemann, Mark A. Kaemingk, Timothy J. Debates, Craig P. Paukert, Jacob R. Krause, Alexander P. Letvin, Tanner M. Stevens, David W. Willis, Steven R. Chipps

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, …

Estimating Carbon Storage In Windbreak Trees On U.S. Agricultural Lands, W. B. Possu, James R. Brandle, G. M. Domke, M. Schoeneberger, Erin E. Blankenship

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Assessing carbon (C) capture and storage potential by the agroforestry practice of windbreaks has been limited. This is due, in part, to a lack of suitable data and associated models for estimating tree biomass and C for species growing under more opengrown conditions such as windbreaks in the Central Plains region of the United States (U.S.). We evaluated 15 allometric models using destructively sampled Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) data from field windbreaks in Nebraska and Montana. Several goodness-of-fit metrics were used to select the optimal model. The Jenkins’ et al. model was then used to estimate biomass for …

Teaching Climate Change Concepts And The Nature Of Science: A Library Activity To Identify Sources Of Climate Change Misconceptions, Charity Flener Lovitt, Kristen S. Shuyler

Libraries

A library activity was developed in which students found information about climate science misconceptions from popular and scientific literatures. As part of the activity, students developed a rubric to evaluate the credibility and type of literature sources they found. The activity prepared students to produce an annotated bibliography of articles, which they then used to create a training document about a climate science misconception for staff at a local science center. Evaluation of annotated bibliographies showed that students were able to distinguish between popular and scholarly literature but struggled to identify primary and secondary sources within the scholarly literature. In …

Altitudinal Shifts Of The Native And Introduced Flora Of California In The Context Of 20th-Century Warming, A. Wolf, Naupaka B. Zimmerman, W. R. Anderegg, P. E. Busby, J. Christensen

Biology Faculty Publications

Aim: The differential responses of plant species to climate change are of great interest and grave concern for scientists and conservationists. One underexploited resource for better understanding these changes are the records held by herbaria. Using these records to assess the responses of different groups of species across the entire flora of California, we sought to quantify the magnitude of species elevational shifts, to measure differences in shifts among functional groups and between native and introduced species, and to evaluate whether these shifts were related to the conservation of thermal niches.

Location: California.

Methods: To characterize these shifts in California, …

Riparian Trees And Aridland Streams Of The Southwestern United States: An Assessment Of The Past, Present, And Future, D. Max Smith, Deborah M. Finch

United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

Riparian ecosystems are vital components of aridlands within the southwestern United States. Historically, surface flows influenced population dynamics of native riparian trees. Many southwestern streams has been altered by regulation, however, and will be further affected by greenhouse warming. Our analysis of stream gage data revealed that decreases in volume of annual discharge and mean peak discharge and a shift to earlier peak discharge will occur in the Southern Rockies region of Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. These changes will likely decrease rates of reproduction and survival of cottonwood (Populus fremontii and Populus deltoides ssp. wislizenii), Goodding's willow …

Assessing Drought Vulnerability Using A Socioecological Framework, Joel R. Brown, Doug Kluck, Chad Mcnutt, Michael J. Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a persistent problem on rangelands and adjusting management to respond appropriately is critical to both preserving natural resources and to maintaining financial viability. • We explore the value of using a structured assessment approach to determining both social and ecological vulnerability. • This approach allows for the identification of vulnerable ecosystems and business operations at regional and local scales as a basis for developing effective policies and programs.

Using Cleaved Amplified Polymorphic Sequence (Caps) Genetic Markers To Determine The Extent Of Hybridization Between Castilleja Affinis And Castilleja Mollis As A Mechanism For Adapting To Climate Change On Santa Rosa Island, Elizabeth Medford

Scripps Senior Theses

Hybridization, the process of interbreeding between individuals of different species, is one method by which plants and animals adapt to a changing environment. One example of such adaptation through hybridization may be occurring on the California Channel Islands with two species of Castilleja. While United State Geological Survey (USGS) researchers have been studying the populations of Castilleja affinis and Castilleja mollis to determine if hybridization is occurring on Santa Rosa Island since the early 1990s, up until this point primarily overt phenotypic characteristics have been used to differentiate between the two species. Genetic methods of differentiation were adopted to …