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2019

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Getting Your Business Communication Research Funded, Jacob D. Rawlins, Sara Doan, Jacqueline Ann Mayfield, Milton Mayfield, Gail Fann Thomas, Yunxia Zhu Jan 2019

Getting Your Business Communication Research Funded, Jacob D. Rawlins, Sara Doan, Jacqueline Ann Mayfield, Milton Mayfield, Gail Fann Thomas, Yunxia Zhu

Faculty Publications

Conducting original research in the discipline of business communication can be expensive. Travel to research locations, specialized software, tokens of appreciation for study participants, support staff, and transcription services can add up quickly. The C. R. Anderson Research Fund (CRARF) was established to promote excellent research on business communication topics by providing grants to members of the Association for Business Communication. In this presentation, members of the C. R. Anderson Research Fund Committee will introduce the fund and provide specific instructions and feedback on individual proposals in breakout rooms. The goal of this presentation is to help each attendee learn …


Simple Statistics And Archaeological Problems, James R. Allison Jan 2019

Simple Statistics And Archaeological Problems, James R. Allison

Faculty Publications

Among Keith Kintigh’s many contributions to archaeology was his emphasis on understanding the connections among quantitative methods, archaeological problems, and what archaeologists can reasonably infer from their data. In both publications and in the classroom, he demonstrated the value of simple computer simulations to understand quantitative measures and how they behave when applied to actual archaeological data. Archaeological research increasingly incorporates analysis of large databases and quantitative methods appropriate to “big data”, but simple statistics are still important to archaeological research. This paper uses computer-intensive methods to demonstrate that archaeologists (and others) frequently misunderstand and misapply some of the simplest …


Household Variation, Public Architecture, And The Organization Of Fremont Communities, James R. Allison, Katie K. Richards, Lindsay D. Johansson, Richard K. Talbot, Scott M. Ure Jan 2019

Household Variation, Public Architecture, And The Organization Of Fremont Communities, James R. Allison, Katie K. Richards, Lindsay D. Johansson, Richard K. Talbot, Scott M. Ure

Faculty Publications

In the far-northern reaches of the greater American Southwest, diverse groups of small-scale agriculturalists, labeled “Fremont” by archaeologists, spread across the northern Colorado Plateau and eastern Great Basin. During the long history of Fremont archaeology, most projects have focused on the excavation of only one or a few residences even in large village sites. Until recently, there has been little effort to understand Fremont social organization or Fremont communities and nothing that could be called household archaeology (but see Hall 2008; Hockett 1998; Janetski and Talbot 2000, 2014; Simms 2008). In fact, for many years the prevailing view has been …


Envisioning Natural And Built Environments As Sacred Landscapes In Prehistoric Casas Grandes, Mexico, Michael T. Searcy, Todd Pitezel, Steve Swanson Jan 2019

Envisioning Natural And Built Environments As Sacred Landscapes In Prehistoric Casas Grandes, Mexico, Michael T. Searcy, Todd Pitezel, Steve Swanson

Faculty Publications

We develop a hypothesized cosmography in an attempt to evaluate the sacred landscapes of the Casas Grandes cultural tradition of northern Mexico. This analysis includes attention to the relationships among archaeological features and aspects of natural geography in the Casas Grandes region. We draw on previous research regarding hilltop sites, architectural features, settlement patterns, and astronomical alignments noted at Paquimé, to envision how the Casas Grandes people mapped their landscape on both the built and unbuilt environments.


Colloidal And Truly Dissolved Metal(Loid)S In Wastewater Lagoons And Their Removal With Floating Treatment Wetlands, Lauren Sullivan Jan 2019

Colloidal And Truly Dissolved Metal(Loid)S In Wastewater Lagoons And Their Removal With Floating Treatment Wetlands, Lauren Sullivan

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Climate change is predicted to cause continuing declines in late-season streamflow, thus increasing the relative contribution of wastewater effluent to surface water flows. Wastewater effluent represents a critical point source of metal and metalloid contamination to aquatic ecosystems and wastewater lagoons are the most common wastewater treatment system in the rural United States. Although the fraction of total wastewater metals and metalloids in "dissolved" forms (defined here asnm) likely drives the potential for negative effects on receiving waters, this broad operational definition lumps truly dissolved solutes (nm) with small colloids and nanomaterials (1-450 nm; hereafter colloids). This size distinction may …


Effects Of Heat Stress And Exercise On Shooting Performance, Patrick R. Lindecker Jan 2019

Effects Of Heat Stress And Exercise On Shooting Performance, Patrick R. Lindecker

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of exercise and acute heat stress on marksmanship performance measures of accuracy, precision, aim time, and distance travelled by the point of aim in trained US military veterans. Methods: Subjects (N=8) (height 184.1 ± 10.9 cm (SD), weight 92.1 ± 10.6 kg, 21.1 ± 8.9% body fat, VO2max 47.25 ± 7.36 mL/kg/min, age 26.8 ± 4.3 yrs.) completed one-hour of walking at 50% VO2max in a hot (35˚C, 30% maximal relative humidity) or cool (22˚C, 30% maximal relative humidity) environment. Core temperature, heart …


Assessing The Robustness Of Time-To-Event Abundance Estimation, Kenneth E. Loonam Jan 2019

Assessing The Robustness Of Time-To-Event Abundance Estimation, Kenneth E. Loonam

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Abundance estimates can inform management policies and are used to address a variety of wildlife research questions, but reliable estimates of abundance can be difficult and expensive to obtain. For low-density, difficult to detect species, such as cougars (Puma concolor), the costs and intensive field effort required to estimate abundance can make working at broad spatial and temporal scales impractical. Remote cameras have proven effective in detecting these species, but the widely applied methods of estimating abundance from remote cameras rely on some portion of the population being marked or uniquely identifiable, limiting their utility to populations with naturally occurring …


Constructing Distance, Responsibility, And Memory Management Theories: An Anthropological Approach To Death Notification Interactions, Teresa Ann 'Lilly' White Jan 2019

Constructing Distance, Responsibility, And Memory Management Theories: An Anthropological Approach To Death Notification Interactions, Teresa Ann 'Lilly' White

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Following a sudden or unexpected death, coroners often communicate the death to the next-of-kin. Death notifications may occur in hospitals, assisted living or dying facilities, homes, offices or workplaces, correctional facilities, schools, or other locations. A death notification has been perceived by outsiders and many researchers as a one-time, unilateral death-telling event. I argue, instead, death notifications are a series of social interactions and processes necessitating multiple actors and mechanisms. The death notification processes begin for the coroner when they are dispatched to a death scene, while the processes begin for the next-of-kin upon the death-telling event. The end is …


Applications Of Asymptotic Methods: Analyzing Mathematical Models In Neuroscience And Describing Fast Dynamics Of A Trajectory In The Vicinity Of A Chaotic Attractor, Denis Mikhailovich Shchepakin Jan 2019

Applications Of Asymptotic Methods: Analyzing Mathematical Models In Neuroscience And Describing Fast Dynamics Of A Trajectory In The Vicinity Of A Chaotic Attractor, Denis Mikhailovich Shchepakin

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

The current dissertation focuses on two unrelated subjects: modeling in Neuroscience applications and Chaos Theory.

Neurons are units of the nervous system that receive, conduct, and transmit information to each other and target tissue via electrical signaling. One of the mechanisms of the signal transduction is through signaling molecules called neurotransmitters. Glutamate is the predominant excitatory neurotransmitter in the mammalian and human central nervous system. However, the mechanism of regulation and sensation of the glutamate via glutamate receptors and transporters is not completely understood.

We discuss currently existing models of glutamate receptors and transporters, and their main problem: the overparameterization …


Extremal Problems For Forests In Graphs And Hypergraphs, Omid Khormali Jan 2019

Extremal Problems For Forests In Graphs And Hypergraphs, Omid Khormali

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

The Turan number, ex_r(n; F), of an r-uniform hypergraph F is the maximum number of hyperedges in an n-vertex r-uniform hypergraph which does not contain F as a subhypergraph. Note that when r = 2, ex_r(n; F) = ex(n; F) which is the Turan number of graph F. We study.

Turan numbers in the degenerate case for graphs and hypergraphs; we focus on the case when F is a forest in graphs and hypergraph. In the first chapter we discuss the history of Turan numbers and give several classical results. In the second chapter, we examine the Turan number for …


Ecological Stoichiometry In Watersheds: From Land To Water In The Qinghai Lake Basin, Ze Ren Jan 2019

Ecological Stoichiometry In Watersheds: From Land To Water In The Qinghai Lake Basin, Ze Ren

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

We examined the influences of grassland status (as indexed by normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) on carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) concentrations and stoichiometry, nutrient limitation, as well as microbial community structure in soil, stream, and/or lake ecosystems in the Qinghai Lake watershed, where grassland is the dominant landcover and more than half of the grassland is degraded.

Chapter 2 showed that grassland degradation decreased C and N concentrations as well as C:N, C:P, and N:P ratios in soil. Moreover, grassland degradation decreased C, N, and P concentrations and influenced C:N and N:P ratios in soil microbial biomass. …


Walking While Asking:Lessons From Agroecology Education In Chiapas, Mexico, Katherine E. Keller Jan 2019

Walking While Asking:Lessons From Agroecology Education In Chiapas, Mexico, Katherine E. Keller

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Keller, Kate, M.S., December 2019 Environmental Studies

Walking While Asking: Lessons from Agroecology Education in Chiapas, Mexico

Committee Chairperson: Dr. Neva Hassanein

This professional paper presents an assessment of the most recent project of Schools for Chiapas (SfC), a U.S.-based solidarity organization working in collaboration with the Zapatista autonomous communities in Chiapas, Mexico. It examines the challenges and potentials of SfC’s efforts to implement food forests at 16 autonomous secondary schools. I contextualize this work within a larger conversation amongst food sovereignty activists and scholars around efforts to scale-out the use of agroecology through education. As the organization looks to …


Designing And Developing An Online Self-Regulated Learning Course, Grant Eckstein, Mariah Krauel-Nix, Norman W. Evans, Benjamin L. Mcmurry Jan 2019

Designing And Developing An Online Self-Regulated Learning Course, Grant Eckstein, Mariah Krauel-Nix, Norman W. Evans, Benjamin L. Mcmurry

Faculty Publications

The concept of self-regulated learning has been a prominent topic in education and has been researched and applied to various educational fields. In the field of TESOL, self-regulation has been categorized into dimensions and linked with possible application tools to help ESL/EFL students better apply and develop related skills (Andrade and Evans 2013, 2015). Although these applications have seen some success, the administration of one intensive English program felt that its center's self-regulated learning program was ineffective for teachers and students. Therefore, curriculum designers evaluated the center's program, compiled data, and formed design specifications for an improved program. Their specifications …


Late-Career Unemployment Has Mixed Effects In Retirement, Wendy C. Birmingham, Maren Wright Voss, M Beth Merryman, Lisa Crabtree, Kathy Subasic, Lori Wadsworth, Man Hung Jan 2019

Late-Career Unemployment Has Mixed Effects In Retirement, Wendy C. Birmingham, Maren Wright Voss, M Beth Merryman, Lisa Crabtree, Kathy Subasic, Lori Wadsworth, Man Hung

Faculty Publications

Paid work forms a pattern of occupational engagement that shifts during both unemployment and retirement. Similar to unemployment, the occupational disruption associated with involuntary retirement has been linked to poorer physical and mental health outcomes. To better understand the health impact of work transitions during the pre- and post-retirement years, 24 retired individuals with late-career unemployment were interviewed at the Huntsman World Senior Games in October 2016. Demographic data were collected. Braun and Clarke’s (2006) approach was utilized to thematically analyse the interview data and interpretations were evaluated against existing theory. Themes identified included struggle, freedom, and transition, followed by …


Spousal Influence: A Study Of Women With Eating And Body Image Concerns, Wendy C. Birmingham, Adriane Ito De Queiroz Cavallini, Jordan Sgro Jan 2019

Spousal Influence: A Study Of Women With Eating And Body Image Concerns, Wendy C. Birmingham, Adriane Ito De Queiroz Cavallini, Jordan Sgro

Faculty Publications

Eating disorder literature often overlooks those exhibiting eating and body image concerns without an eating disorder diagnosis. Supportive spouses may ameliorate negative body image and eating behavior, but spouses who exhibit both supportive and non-supportive behaviors concurrently (ambivalent) may send mixed messages. Eating disorder behaviors and spousal interactions were assessed in 61 women who demonstrated eating disordered behavior and body dissatisfaction but were not clinically diagnosed with an eating disorder. Spouses mostly provided messages of reassurance. However, some women were unable to overcome their internalized negative body image. Feelings of social comparison were seen with ambivalent spouses. Supportive relationships may …


Contemporary Artist/Teacher Meets A Mid-Century Classroom: Practice, Theory And Becoming An Art Teacher, Tara L. Carpenter, Mark Allen Graham Jan 2019

Contemporary Artist/Teacher Meets A Mid-Century Classroom: Practice, Theory And Becoming An Art Teacher, Tara L. Carpenter, Mark Allen Graham

Faculty Publications

Student teaching is one of the most important and demanding parts of teacher preparation. Student teachers balance many concerns, including classroom management, apathetic students, the demands and expectations of a full-time teacher, how to dress, how to get along with their mentor teacher, and how to meet the expectations of the licensure process that typically includes complex assessments of their teaching practices. These case studies illustrate how student teachers may also need to navigate philosophical differences with their mentoring teacher about art, education and classroom management. These differences also create distinct portraits of conflicts in art education between emerging and …


Burning Down The House? The Appellate Body In The Centre Of The Wto Crisis, Bernard Hoekman, Petros C. Mavroidis Jan 2019

Burning Down The House? The Appellate Body In The Centre Of The Wto Crisis, Bernard Hoekman, Petros C. Mavroidis

Faculty Scholarship

In December 2019 the WTO Appellate Body (AB) will cease to operate unless the United States stops blocking new appointments. The US argues the AB has exceeded its mandate and has indicated it wants to ensure that the AB performs the role originally assigned to it in 1995. This paper discusses the Uruguay round negotiating history with the view to establish what “going back to 1995” entails. It concludes that this should not be difficult assuming a willingness of the WTO membership to seriously consider the US concerns and acceptance by the US of a commitment by the membership to …


Evaluating Constitutional Hardball: Two Fallacies And A Research Agenda, Joseph Fishkin, David E. Pozen Jan 2019

Evaluating Constitutional Hardball: Two Fallacies And A Research Agenda, Joseph Fishkin, David E. Pozen

Faculty Scholarship

This Reply addresses the responses by Professors David Bernstein and Jed Shugerman to our essay Asymmetric Constitutional Hardball. Bernstein's response, we argue, commits the common fallacy of equating reciprocity with symmetry: assuming that because constitutional hardball often "takes two" to play, both sides must be playing it in a similar manner. Shugerman's response, on the other hand, helps combat the common fallacy of equating aggressiveness with wrongfulness: assuming that because all acts of constitutional hardball strain norms of governance, all are similarly damaging to democracy. We suggest that whereas Bernstein's approach would set back the burgeoning effort to study constitutional …


Are Beg And Bag-Raising Distinct? Regional Patterns In Prevelar Raising In North American English, Joseph A. Stanley Jan 2019

Are Beg And Bag-Raising Distinct? Regional Patterns In Prevelar Raising In North American English, Joseph A. Stanley

Faculty Publications

Conditioned raising of TRAP and DRESS before /g/.

BAG (~84 lexemes*)

flag, magnet, rag, flag, coagulate, antagonist, snag, tag, fragment, jagged, lag, shaggy, brag, scraggy, wag, stagnant, nag, gag, wagon, drag, dragon, agony, sag, zigzag, aggregate, scallywag, magnificent, haggle, octagonal, straggle, pragmatic, haggard, Pythagorean, Baghdad, aggravate…

BEG (~60 lexemes*) Regulate, leg, negative, egg, megaphone, pregnant, negligent, segregate, Greg, peg, segment, renege, tegument, keg, regnant, legate, stegosaur, interregnum, dregs, Megan, segue, JPEG, legacy, nutmeg, regolith, Regulus, omega, oregano, integrity, allegro, Pegasus, eglantine, telegraphy…

VAGUE (~16 lexemes*) bagel, fragrant, flagrant, plague, vague, vagrant, rutabaga, bodega, Prego, the Hague, Copenhagen, Reagen, San Diego, …


Reconciling Perception With Production In Southern Speech, Rachel M. Olsen, Joseph A. Stanley, Michael L. Olsen, Lisa Lipani, Margaret E. L. Renwick Jan 2019

Reconciling Perception With Production In Southern Speech, Rachel M. Olsen, Joseph A. Stanley, Michael L. Olsen, Lisa Lipani, Margaret E. L. Renwick

Faculty Publications

Research question: How does perception compare to production in southern speech in Linguistic Atlas data?

Hypothesis: We expect impressionistic glide weakening to correlate with less dynamic vowels.

Acoustic and perceptual data also tell different stories.

Perceptual data suggest:

  • Social factors are not significant
  • Pre-rhotic glides are the most weakened

Production data suggest:

  • Ethnicity is significant
  • Pre-lateral glides are the most weakened

As percentage of monophthongal perception goes up, Trajectory Length goes down, as expected, but the correlation is VERY weak.

Trajectory Length is not necessarily reflective of impressionistic transcriptions of glides in DASS.

The acoustic correlates to perception are not …


Real Time Vowel Shifts In Georgia English, Joseph A. Stanley Jan 2019

Real Time Vowel Shifts In Georgia English, Joseph A. Stanley

Faculty Publications

How has Georgia English changed since the 1890s? All vowels have changed. What is the trajectory of that change? In the direction of the Elsewhere Shift.


Social Factors In Southern Us Speech: Acoustic Analysis Of A Large-Scale Legacy Corpus, Joseph A. Stanley, Margaret E. L. Renwick Jan 2019

Social Factors In Southern Us Speech: Acoustic Analysis Of A Large-Scale Legacy Corpus, Joseph A. Stanley, Margaret E. L. Renwick

Faculty Publications

Vowel shifts in Southern US speech

  • Vowels in the Southern US speech vary within the region and across racial and social group.
  • What are the effects and interaction of these factors, measured in a large acoutic corpus?


Are Beg And Bag-Raising Distinct? Regional Patterns In Prevelar Raising In North American English, Joseph A. Stanley Jan 2019

Are Beg And Bag-Raising Distinct? Regional Patterns In Prevelar Raising In North American English, Joseph A. Stanley

Faculty Publications

Hypotheses: 1. BEG- and BAG-raising are independent. 2. Prevelar raising is more widespread than reported thus far.


Trade Openness And Antitrust Law, Anu Bradford, Adam S. Chilton Jan 2019

Trade Openness And Antitrust Law, Anu Bradford, Adam S. Chilton

Faculty Scholarship

Openness to international trade and adoption of antitrust laws can both curb anti-competitive behavior. But scholars have long debated the relationship between the two. Some argue that greater trade openness makes antitrust unnecessary, while others contend that antitrust laws are still needed to realize the benefits of trade liberalization. Data limitations have made this debate largely theoretical to date. We study the relationship between trade and antitrust empirically using new data on antitrust laws and enforcement activities. We find that trade openness and stringency of antitrust laws are positively correlated from 1950 to 2010 overall, but the positive correlation disappears …


Heating Rate And Temperature Effects On Pyrolysis Products From Live Wildland Fuels, Mohammad-Saeed Safdari, Elham Amini, David R. Weise, Thomas H. Fletcher Jan 2019

Heating Rate And Temperature Effects On Pyrolysis Products From Live Wildland Fuels, Mohammad-Saeed Safdari, Elham Amini, David R. Weise, Thomas H. Fletcher

Faculty Publications

Wildland fire, which includes both planned (prescribed fire) and unplanned (wildfire) fires, is an important component of many ecosystems. During wildland fires, low heating rate pyrolysis (slow pyrolysis) occurs during preheating and/or smoldering of plant material. High heating rate pyrolysis (fast pyrolysis) exists in the flame region. Pyrolysis temperature and heating rate play important roles on the yields and the compositions of pyrolysis products. In this work, the effects of pyrolysis temperature and heating rate on the yields and the compositions of pyrolysis products from 14 plant species native to the forests of the southern United States are shown. The …


Pyrolysis Kinetics Of Live And Dead Wildland Vegetation From The Southern United States, Elham Amini, Mohammad-Saeed Safdari, David R. Weise, Thomas H. Fletcher Jan 2019

Pyrolysis Kinetics Of Live And Dead Wildland Vegetation From The Southern United States, Elham Amini, Mohammad-Saeed Safdari, David R. Weise, Thomas H. Fletcher

Faculty Publications

The fundamental combustion behavior of live wildland vegetation is not fully understood. Since the combustion process during wildland fire starts with pyrolysis, there is a need for better understanding of pyrolysis to develop improved wildland fire models. The kinetics of pyrolysis of live and dead wildland vegetation has not been explored in detail. In this study, the pyrolysis kinetics were determined for 14 different plant species (live and dead) which are all native to the forests in the southern United States. Pyrolysis experiments were carried out in a Thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) under inert conditions at 5 different heating rates ranged …


Modified Cpd Model For Coal Devolatilization At Underground Coal Thermal Treatment Conditions, Ding Wang, Thomas H. Fletcher, Swomitra Mohanty, Hoaquan Hu, Eric G. Eddings Jan 2019

Modified Cpd Model For Coal Devolatilization At Underground Coal Thermal Treatment Conditions, Ding Wang, Thomas H. Fletcher, Swomitra Mohanty, Hoaquan Hu, Eric G. Eddings

Faculty Publications

To study coal pyrolysis behavior at underground coal thermal treatment (UCTT) conditions, a modified CPD (M-CPD) model was developed and evaluated using two scales of experiments as well as two different coals, Utah Sufco and Illinois #6. Compared with the original CPD model, three major aspects were changed, including (1) rewriting the algorithm using MATLAB built-in functions; (2) developing a correlation method between coal elemental composition and the initial functional group population to calculate the effect of cross-linking on the lattice structure; and (3) using a two-activation energy approach for gas generation kinetics modeling. Results predicted by the M-CPD model …


Characterization Of Pyrolysis Products From Slow Pyrolysis Of Live And Dead Vegetation Native To The Southern United States, Elham Amini, Mohammad-Saeed Safdari, Jonathan Deyoung, David R. Weise, Thomas H. Fletcher Jan 2019

Characterization Of Pyrolysis Products From Slow Pyrolysis Of Live And Dead Vegetation Native To The Southern United States, Elham Amini, Mohammad-Saeed Safdari, Jonathan Deyoung, David R. Weise, Thomas H. Fletcher

Faculty Publications

Prescribed (i.e., controlled) burning is a common practice used in many vegetation types in the world to accomplish a wide range of land management objectives including wildfire risk reduction, wildlife habitat improvement, forest regeneration, and land clearing. To properly apply controlled fire and reduce unwanted fire behavior, an improved understanding of fundamental processes related to combustion of live and dead vegetation is needed. Since the combustion process starts with pyrolysis, there is a need for more data and better models of pyrolysis of live and dead fuels. In this study, slow pyrolysis experiments were carried out in a pyrolyzer apparatus …


Extended Abstract: Comparison Of Peer And Instructor Qualitative Feedback On Presentations, Matthew J. Baker, William H. Baker Jan 2019

Extended Abstract: Comparison Of Peer And Instructor Qualitative Feedback On Presentations, Matthew J. Baker, William H. Baker

Faculty Publications

New presentation-feedback technologies enable peers and instructors to provide real-time qualitative feedback on oral presentations. Previous research suggests that summative quantitative ratings of peers and instructors tend to be moderately reliable, but no research exists on how substantive qualitative ratings compare. Analyzing the substantive qualitative feedback from 10 students and 10 instructors on two professional presentations, this study analyzes differences in the message- and messenger-related comments of peers and instructors. Findings suggest that instructors provide proportionally more messenger-related feedback.


Beyond The Counterinsurgency Paradigm Of Governing: Letting Go Of Prediction And The Illusion Of An Internal Enemy, Bernard E. Harcourt Jan 2019

Beyond The Counterinsurgency Paradigm Of Governing: Letting Go Of Prediction And The Illusion Of An Internal Enemy, Bernard E. Harcourt

Faculty Scholarship

Bernard E. Harcourt expands the thesis about the illusion of insurgency in the United States to the current day. What, he asks, could alter fraudulent and overblown perceptions about the sanctity and importance of the national security state? He suggests that the way forward might begin with relinquishing the institutionalized practice of predicting danger. How to do this and what the consequences might be for his three-pronged analysis of state counterinsurgency strategy provides fresh thinking for future analysis and policymaking.