Digital Commons Network^™

Applications Of Statistical Process Control In Monitoring Aircrew Bombing Proficiency, Kirk G. Horton

Theses and Dissertations

The current tools used by squadron supervisors to monitor the bombing performance of aircrews flying F-111E aircraft are monthly reports that have little predictive capability. No real-time methodology exists for monitoring and predicting aircrew bombing performance and preventing bombing problems that might cause an individual to become unqualified. It has been suggested that Statistical process Control (SPC) can be applied to the bombing process to develop tools for managing the process, correcting problems, and improve the bombing performance of a squadron. This study investigates the application of SPC to the bombing process. It examines data taken from an F-111E Fighter …

Patient-Aircraft Forecasting For The Strategic Aeromedical Evacuation "Lift-Bed Process", Donald F. Kimminau

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research is to develop a tool for the Global Patient Movement Requirements Center (GPMRC) to efficiently forecast Aeromedical Evacuation (AE) aircraft and schedule patients in the lift-bed process. During a contingency, GPMRC is responsible for requesting required airlift, and providing lift-bed candidates to the Theater Patient Movement Requirements Center. The objective is to evacuate all waiting patients while minimizing the number of C-141 aircraft which must be dedicated to the AE mission. In the solution process, a short-term forecast of patient movement requirements is input, including number of patients, bed and aircraft availability, and hub preferences. …

Response Surface Methodology As A Sensitivity Tool In Decision Analysis, David A. Meyers

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to evaluate response surface methodology as a sensitivity analysis tool in the area of decision analysis. The advent of low-cost personal computer software, such as DPLTM, has created an accessible tool with the ability to frame and solve influence diagrams for decision problems. This study provides a comparison of current sensitivity analysis techniques vs those made possible through response surface methodology (RSM). Sensitivity analysis alternatives are demonstrated on a decision problem concerning the evaluation of force structure options for the Department of Defense. Sensitivity analysis is performed on both one-way and two-way perturbations of …

The Effect Of Repeatedly Sampling An Embedded Metamodel On The Simulation Response, John Kent Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effect on simulation output of repeatedly sampling an embedded metamodel. A metamodel is said to be embedded within a simulation if it is used to replace a submodule of that simulation. Replacing a deterministic module with an embedded deterministic metamodel poses no apparent mathematical problems. However, using a deterministic metamodel to replace a stochastic simulation component could require additional corrective actions. This research was performed in two phases. The first phase dealt with a set of tandem queues. It was shown that as each queue was sequentially replaced with a metamodel, the total system variance was …

An Improved Solution Methodology For The Arsenal Exchange Model (Aem), Jeffery D. Weir

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to design a solution methodology for the Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM) that is faster and contains less precision error than the current one. The current solution methodology modifies some of the original constraints and uses a computationally slow matrix inverter. The improved methodology uses a revised simplex algorithm to first solve a subproblem having only the weapon constraints generated by the AEM. Given this optimal allocation, hedge constraints and target constraints that are violated by the current solution are added to the original subproblem. A dual simplex algorithm is used to find the optimal …

A Methodology To Generate Air Force Materiel Command Manpower Reduction Alternatives, Steven T. Bishop

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to generate manpower authorization reduction alternatives for Air Force Materiel Command. The advent of low-cost personal computer software applications, such as Excel, has created an assessable tool with the ability to solve linear programming problems. This research examines the manpower resource reduction process of Air Force Materiel Command and models the Resources Allocation - Integrated Process Team (RA-IPT) decision process. A linear programming model is developed to assign these reduction through a weighted sum. The linear programming model is developed as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, the Exercise Support Program (ESP), using Visual Basic …

Modeling Corps Artillery In A Theater Level Combat Model, Richard F. Bowyer

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of a methodology to explicitly model corps artillery assets in the Joint Staff's Joint Stochastic Analysis Research (J-STOCHWAR) and to quantify Army doctrine that guides organization of artillery for combat. The methodology incorporates corps artillery into the J-STOCHWAR by using the five fundamentals for organizing for combat, which reflect Army doctrine, and combines them with basic concepts already used in existing theater-level models. Other aspects of the problem include determining the appropriate level of detail, identifying techniques to solve the problem, and verifying the results. The proposed decision analysis solution technique provides a feasible method …

The Development Of A Metamodel For A Major Weapon System Cost Model, Paul W. Campbell

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimation is an integral part of the procurement process of major weapon systems. Despite this essential role, the cost estimation process is able to provide the decision makers and analysts with a limited amount of insight. This is due to the complex nature of the cost models that typically contain 20-30 cost estimating relationships (CERs) and 50-100 variables. In an effort to provide the decision makers and analysts with additional insight to the cost estimate, this research demonstrates a methodology that will (1) identify the cost drivers of the cost model, ( 2) estimate the effects of these cost …

Groundwater Model Parameter Estimation Using Response Surface Methodology, Richard M. Cotman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examined the use of response surface methodology (RSM) to estimate the parameters of a finite-element groundwater model. An existing two-dimensional, steady-state flow model of a fractured carbonate groundwater system in southwestern Ohio served as the calibration target data set. A Plackett-Burman screening design showed that only four of the ten hydraulic conductivity zones significantly contributed to the output of the finite-element model. Also, the effective porosity parameter did not significantly affect the model's output. Using only the four significant hydraulic conductivity parameters; four two-level, four-factor designed experiments were conducted to exploit the first-order response surface defined by a …

Estimation Of The Captive-Carry Survival Function For The Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (Amraam), David R. Denhard

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the problem of estimating the survival function of an item (probability that the item functions for a time greater than a given time t) from sampling data subject to partial right censoring (a portion of the items in the sampling data have not yet been observed to fail). Specifically the thesis describes several parametric and non-parametric statistical models that can be used when the sampling data is subject to partial right censoring. These models are applied to the case of estimating the captive-carry survival function of the AIM-120A Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution Based On Sample Spacings From Complete And Censored Samples, Huseyin Duman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies a new goodness-of-fit test for the gamma distribution with known shape parameter. This test statistic, Z*, is based on spacings from complete or censored samples. The size of samples varied between 5 and 35. The critical value tables were generated for the Z* test statistic for complete and censored samples. The critical values were obtained for five different significance levels: 0.20 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01. An extensive power study, containing 50,000 Monte Carlo runs was conducted using nine alternative distributions, H_a. It was observed that the Z* test statistic was more powerful against certain …

An Analytical Framework For Assessing Future Force Structure Requirements Under Uncertainty, Michael L. Fredley

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this research was to develop an analytical framework to assess future force structure requirements under the major uncertainties inherent in the post-Cold War era. Among the uncertainties are the frequency and nature of future threats to U.S. interests and the cost of maintaining, building, and demobilizing forces. The centerpiece of the methodology is a computer model which simulates the development of threats to U.S. interests and the actions the U.S. takes to protect those interests. From this simulation, the costs and risks associated with different policy alternatives can be estimated. The simulation is set within a broader …

Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Inverse Gaussian Distribution With Two Unknown Parameter, Huseyin Gunes

Theses and Dissertations

Modified Kolmogorov- Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling (AD), Cramer-von Mises (CV), Kupier (V), and Watson (W) goodness-of-fit tests are generated for the inverse Gaussian distribution with unknown parameters. The inverse Gaussian parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 repetitions is used to generate critical values for sample sizes of 5 through 50 with an increment of five, sample sizes of 60 through 100 with an increment of 10, and 24 different values of the inverse Gaussian shape parameter. A 50,000-repetition Monte Carlo power study is carried out using data with sample sizes of 5 through 100 …

A Methodology For Comparing The Value Of Competing Afmc Manpower Allocation Strategies, Sandra K. Smith

Theses and Dissertations

This research effort develops a methodology for Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) decision makers to use during mandated resource allocation exercises for comparing competing manpower allocation strategies. A value model is used to represent the hierarchical objectives of the command, with the primary objective being the attainment of maximum mission effectiveness in the face of constrained resources. Value model decomposition is patterned according to the command's organizational structure. Scoring functions derived using direct assessment survey techniques capture the relationship between manpower and mission effectiveness for lowest level organizations. An additive value function represents the model mathematically; the primary objective value …

Spatial Time-Series: Pollution Pattern Recognition Under Irregular Interventions, Samuel A. Wright

Theses and Dissertations

The Fernald Environmental Restoration Management Corporation (FERMCO) has noted the introduction of arsenic contamination to groundwater around the area of the groundwater recovery system, which captures uranium contaminated groundwater. The introduction of arsenic occurs during high levels of pumping and is particularly sensitive to the western two of the five pumps. Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Spatial-Temporal ARMA (STARMA) empirical analyses are used to model the level of arsenic contamination found through time. The intervention of varied levels of pumping is modeled with a transfer function using analytic techniques to create a causal intervention transfer function input series to give …

Acquiring Consistent Knowledge For Bayesian Forests, Darwyn O. Banks

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a methodology and a tool for knowledge acquisition with the new probabilistic knowledge representation-the Bayesian Forest. It establishes the structure of the Knowledge Acquisition and Maintenance module of the Probabilities. Expert Systems, Knowledge and Inference (PESKI) architecture. The tool, MACK, is designed to be used directly by the domain expert(s) rather than by knowledge engineer(s), and thus supports automated knowledge acquisition. This research determines and implements the constraints necessary to ensure the consistency of Bayesian Forest knowledge bases as data is both acquired and subsequently maintained. The impact to the PESKI architecture of time-dependent information and default …

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis, James A. Stewart

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis applies neural network feature selection techniques to multivariate time series data to improve prediction of a target time series. Two approaches to feature selection are used. First, a subset enumeration method is used to determine which financial indicators are most useful for aiding in prediction of the S&P 500 futures daily price. The candidate indicators evaluated include RSI, Stochastics and several moving averages. Results indicate that the Stochastics and RSI indicators result in better prediction results than the moving averages. The second approach to feature selection is calculation of individual saliency metrics. A new decision boundary-based individual saliency …

Dynamic Maintenance Scheduling For A Stochastic Telecommunication Network: Determination Of Performance Factors, Todd S. Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach to access the relationship between maintenance facility location and communication network performance measurement using a selected dynamic maintenance scheduling protocol. There were three objectives established for this effort. The first objective was the determination of an upper-bound upon the level of performance for a telecommunication network using dynamically scheduled maintenance to evaluate maintenance depot location. This was achieved by using a two-stage algorithm, first locate a maintenance depot by using stochastic algorithms, and then to measure the resulting impact upon performance with a multi-commodity network flow model. The second objective was to develop the …

Right-Hand-Side Multidimensional Optimality Analysis Of A Large Scale Linear Program Using Metamodelling Techniques, Osman Iyde

Theses and Dissertations

A methodology for optimality analysis of linear programs was developed by Johnson, Bauer, Moore, and Grant to create metamodels using response surface methodology techniques such as experimental design and least squares regression, and a geostatistical estimation technique, namely kriging. Metamodels have the form of a simple polynomial, and they predict the optimal objective function value of an LP for various levels of the constraints. They eliminate the necessity of determining which critical region contains the right-hand-side (RHS) vector of interest since they are valid over multiple critical regions. The methodology of Johnson, et al. can be applied to large scale …

The Effectiveness Of Link-Teaching In Undergraduate Science Education., Dennis Allen Jacobs

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to investigate a method for improving undergraduate science education. The method investigated is called link-teaching. It is the linking of a core science class with a writing class, with the topics covered in the science class being the same topics used for the writing assignments in the writing class. For the purpose of this study a physics class (Natural Phenomena) and an astronomy class were both linked with expository writing classes.The research was done in the context of two theories of learning, Ausubel's Assimilation Theory and Gowin's Theory of Education. Both predicted that link-teaching, …

A Generalized System Performance Model For Object-Oriented Database Applications, Ellen Moore Walk

Theses and Dissertations

Although relational database systems have met many needs in traditional business applications, such technology is inadequate for non-traditional applications such as computer-aided design, computer-aided software engineering, and knowledge bases. Object-oriented database systems (OODB) enhance the data modeling power and performance of database management systems for these applications.

Response time is an important issue facing OODB. However, standard measures of on-line transaction processing are irrelevant for OODB . Benchmarks compare alternative implementations of OODB system software, running a constant application workload. Few attempts have been made to characterize performance implications of OODB application design, given a fixed OODB and operating system …

Visage: Improving The Ballistic Vulnerability Modeling And Analysis Process, Brett F. Grimes

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to improve the process of modeling and analyzing ballistic vulnerability data. This was accomplished by addressing two of the more urgent needs of vulnerability analysts; the ability to display fault tree data and to edit target descriptions. A vulnerability data visualization program called VISAGE was modified to meet these needs. VISAGE was originally created to preview static shotline plots and subsequently grew into a full-featured visualization package for vulnerability target descriptions and analyses data. The next logical step in the programs evolution was to include the needed editing and fault tree display capabilities. The …

Statistical Methods For Detecting And Characterizing Departures From Additivity In Multi-Dimensional Drug/Chemical Mixtures, Kathryn S. Dawson

Theses and Dissertations

In studies of the effects of multiple drug or chemical combinations, one goal may be to detect and characterize the interactions between the agents. The techniques currently applied to this problem have limitations when the experiments involve more than 2 agents. Certain response-surface techniques require an unrealistic number of observations for studies involving a large number of agents. Current graphical methods are impossible to use in studies of 3 or more agents. In this research two statistical techniques are described that can be applied to studies with an unlimited number of agents. In the first approach, dose combinations are collected …

An Empirical Examination Of The Major Organizational Dimensions That Influence The Perceived Quality Of Federal Personnel Office Services, John Elton Dunning

Theses and Dissertations

Recent studies conducted by oversight agencies show that improvements are needed in Federal personnel office (FPO) operations. The existing literature and research in the field of public personnel administration provides little guidance as to what types of changes or interventions will improve service quality. The purpose of this study is to identify organizational variables that influence FPO service quality.

This study is based on the multiple-constituency model of organizational effectiveness and the body of literature pertaining to service quality research conducted in private sector service industries. The investigator developed a conceptual model of FPO service quality based on the findings …

Analysis And Extension Of Model-Based Software Executives, Keith E. Lewis

Theses and Dissertations

This research developed a comprehensive description of the simulation environment of Architect, a domain-oriented application composition system being developed at the Air Force Institute of Technology to explore new software engineering technologies. The description combines information from several previous research efforts and Architect's source code into a single, comprehensive document. A critical evaluation of the simulation environment was also performed, identifying improvements and modifications that enhance Architecture's application execution capabilities by reducing complexity and execution time. The analysis was then taken one step further and presented extensions to the current simulation environment. The extensions included investigating the feasibility of mixed-mode …

Depositional Environments And Paleogeography Of The Winnipeg Group (Ordovician), Williston Basin, North Dakota, Jonathan B. Ellingson

Theses and Dissertations

The Winnipeg Group (Upper Ordovician) unconformably overlies the Deadwood Formation (Cambrian - Lower Ordovician) over most of North Dakota, except in the extreme eastern part, where it lies directly on Precambrian basement rocks. The Winnipeg is conformably overlain by the Red River Formation (Upper Ordovician). The Winnipeg reaches a maximum thickness of 448 feet (136.6 m) in the center of the basin, Williams County. The Winnipeg Group consists of three formations, in ascending order, the Black Island, Icebox, and Roughlock Formations. The Black Island Formation is, herein, formally divided into the Hawkeye Valley and the Garland Members.

The Hawkeye Valley …

Prey Selectivity By Naticid Gastropods From Tertiary Sediments Of The United States Coastal Plain, Robert N. Sickler

Theses and Dissertations

Previous studies have shown that naticid gastropod predators are highly selective of prey species in accordance with the Kitchell et al. (1981) cost-benefit model. In addition, earlier studies have demonstrated selectivity of drillhole siting and intraspecific prey size. This study focuses on prey selectivity by Oligocene naticid gastropods and is used to test Vermeij's (1987) hypothesis of escalation. The hypothesis of escalation states that biologic hazards have increased during the Phanerozoic and that organisms have either had to adapt to these hazards or face possible extinction (Vermeij, 1987). Naticid predation on molluscan assemblages is one of several examples used to …

Salinity, Radon, And Radon Precursors In The Soils Of Grand Forks County, North Dakota, Kevin L. Solie

Theses and Dissertations

High levels of indoor radon have been observed in many areas of the Red River Valley and particularly in Grand Forks County of North Dakota. Data from the University of North Dakota (UND) Radon Monitoring Facility indicated more than 80% of the dwellings tested had radon levels greater than the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) action limit of 4 pCi/l. High radon levels may pose a health threat (USEPA, 1986) to valley residents.

A review of existing data indicates that areas of the Red River Valley in North Dakota with elevated soil salinity also exhibit higher equivalent uranium (eU) …

Phosphorus Bearing Substrates In Ring Expansion Reactions, Bradley K. Norwood

Theses and Dissertations

A variety of substituted phosphonium salts, phosphorus ylides and phosphonates were studied to assess their utility in ring expansion reactions. The strategy involved formation of fused ring systems whose ring strain could be exploited to accomplish ring expansion to medium sized rings. β-Alkoxy vinylphosphonium salts were found to be unreactive with species such as the dimethylsulfoxonium methylide anion, Simmons-Smith type reagents. and carbenes in attempts to produce cyclopropyl phosphonium salts.

C-Alkylation of β-keto phosphorus ylides using haloalkanes bearing terminal groups that could be converted and reacted with the B-carbonyl, was also examined as a method for accessing strained rings bearing …

Analytical Modeling Of The Human Whole Body Counter Derived From Low Level ⁶⁵Zinc Gamma Ray Emissions, Stephen L. Cassola

Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.