Digital Commons Network^™

On The Need To Determine Accurately The Impact Of Higher-Order Sensitivities On Model Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Quantification And Best-Estimate Predictions, Dan Gabriel Cacuci

Faculty Publications

This work aims at underscoring the need for the accurate quantification of the sensitivities (i.e., functional derivatives) of the results (a.k.a. “responses”) produced by large-scale computational models with respect to the models’ parameters, which are seldom known perfectly in practice. The large impact that can arise from sensitivities of order higher than first has been highlighted by the results of a third-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which will be briefly reviewed in this work to underscore that neglecting the higher-order sensitivities causes substantial errors in predicting the expectation and variance of model responses. The …

Robustness Analysis Framework For Computations Associated With Building Performance Models And Immersive Virtual Experiments, Chanachok Chokwitthaya, Yimin Zhu, Supratik Mukhopadhyay

Faculty Publications

Building performance models (BPMs) have been used to simulate and analyze building performance during design. While extensive research efforts have made to improve the performance of BPMs, little attention has given to their robustness. Uncertainty is a crucial factor affecting the robustness of BPMs, in which such effect needs to be quantified through a suitable approach. The paper offers a robustness analysis framework for BPMs by using perturbation techniques to simulate uncertainty in input datasets. To investigate the efficacy of the framework, a generative adversarial network (GAN)-based framework was selected as a case study to analyze light switch usages in …

Teaching With Quantitative Data In The Social Sciences At The University Of New Hampshire: An Ithaka S+R Local Report, Patricia Condon, Eleta Exline, Louise Buckley

Faculty Publications

This exploratory study investigated the teaching practices of social science instructors at the University of New Hampshire who engage with undergraduate students using quantitative data in the classroom. The participants interviewed teach both general and discipline-specific data concepts as academic, work, and life skills. Primary challenges discussed by the participants that students face in engaging with these topics are understanding math and statistical concepts, learning new software and computing skills, limited prior exposure to data, and lack of retention of content from earlier courses. Participants addressed challenges in several ways in order to lower barriers to learning, including finding, vetting, …

Placental Adaptation To Maternal Malnutrition, M. Carey Satterfield, Ashley K. Edwards, Fuller W. Bazer, Kathrin A. Dunlap, Chelsie B. Steinhauser, Guoyao Wu

Faculty Publications

Maternal malnutrition gives rise to both short- and long-term consequences for the survival and health of the offspring. As the intermediary between mother and fetus, the placenta has the potential to interpret environmental signals, such as nutrient availability, and adapt to support fetal growth and development. While this potential is present, it is clear that at times placental adaptation fails to occur resulting in poor pregnancy outcomes. This review will focus on placental responses to maternal undernutrition related to changes in placental vascularization and hemodynamics and placental nutrient transport systems across species. While much of the available literature describes placental …

Stability Analysis Using Generalized Sup-Delay Inequalities, Frederic Mazenc, Michael Malisoff, Miroslav Krstic

Faculty Publications

We provide a new generalization of a recent trajectory-based approach for proving global asymptotic stability properties, using new sup-delay inequalities. Our generalization eliminates the usual contractivity requirement from previous sup-delay inequality approaches. We show how the requirements of our generalization hold under less restrictive Halanay's conditions than those that were previously reported. While the usual Halanay's inequality requires the decay rate to exceed the gain, our less restrictive conditions allow the gain to exceed the decay rate. We apply our work to systems with switching delays and to a continuous-discrete system.

Analysis Of A New Multispecies Tumor Growth Model Coupling 3d Phase-Fields With A 1d Vascular Network, Marvin Fritz, Prashant K. Jha, Tobias Köppl, J. Tinsley Oden, Barbara Wohlmuth

Faculty Publications

In this work, we present and analyze a mathematical model for tumor growth incorporating ECM erosion, interstitial flow, and the effect of vascular flow and nutrient transport. The model is of phase-field or diffused-interface type in which multiple phases of cell species and other constituents are separated by smooth evolving interfaces. The model involves a mesoscale version of Darcy's law to capture the flow mechanism in the tissue matrix. Modeling flow and transport processes in the vasculature supplying the healthy and cancerous tissue, one-dimensional (1D) equations are considered. Since the models governing the transport and flow processes are defined together …

Modeling And Simulation Of Vascular Tumors Embedded In Evolving Capillary Networks, Marvin Fritz, Prashant K. Jha, Tobias Köppl, J. Tinsley Oden, Andreas Wagner, Barbara Wohlmuth

Faculty Publications

In this work, we present a coupled 3D–1D model of solid tumor growth within a dynamically changing vascular network to facilitate realistic simulations of angiogenesis. Additionally, the model includes erosion of the extracellular matrix, interstitial flow, and coupled flow in blood vessels and tissue. We employ continuum mixture theory with stochastic Cahn–Hilliard type phase-field models of tumor growth. The interstitial flow is governed by a mesoscale version of Darcy's law. The flow in the blood vessels is controlled by Poiseuille flow, and Starling's law is applied to model the mass transfer in and out of blood vessels. The evolution of …

A Polynomial Roth Theorem For Corners In Finite Fields, Rui Han, Michael T. Lacey, Fan Yang

Faculty Publications

We prove a Roth-type theorem for polynomial corners in the finite field setting. Let ϕ1 and ϕ2 be two polynomials of distinct degree. For sufficiently large primes p, any subset (Formula presented.) with (Formula presented.) contains three points (Formula presented.). The study of these questions on (Formula presented.) was started by Bourgain and Chang. Our Theorem adapts the argument of Dong, Li, and Sawin, in particular relying upon deep Weil-type inequalities established by N. Katz.

The Inverse Problem For A Spectral Asymmetry Function Of The Schrödinger Operator On A Finite Interval, B. Malcolm Brown, Karl Michael Schmidt, Stephen P. Shipman, Ian Wood

Faculty Publications

For the Schrödinger equation (Formula presented.) on a finite x-interval, there is defined an “asymmetry function” (Formula presented.), which is entire of order 1/2 and type 1 in λ. Our main result identifies the classes of square-integrable potentials (Formula presented.) that possess a common asymmetry function (Formula presented.). For any given (Formula presented.), there is one potential for each Dirichlet spectral sequence.

High-Order Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis And Uncertainty Quantification: Review And New Developments, Dan Gabriel Cacuci

Faculty Publications

This work reviews the state-of-the-art methodologies for the deterministic sensitivity analysis of nonlinear systems and deterministic quantification of uncertainties induced in model responses by uncertainties in the model parameters. The need for computing high-order sensitivities is underscored by presenting an analytically solvable model of neutron scattering in a hydrogenous medium, for which all of the response’s relative sensitivities have the same absolute value of unity. It is shown that the wider the distribution of model parameters, the higher the order of sensitivities needed to achieve a desired level of accuracy in representing the response and in computing the response’s expectation, …

Consensus Revisited: Quantifying Scientific Agreement On Climate Change And Climate Expertise Among Earth Scientists 10 Years Later, Krista F. Myers, Peter T. Doran, John Cook, John E. Kotcher, Teresa A. Myers

Faculty Publications

The scientific consensus on human-caused global warming has been a topic of intense interest in recent decades. This is in part due to the important role of public perception of expert consensus, which has downstream impacts on public opinion and support for mitigation policies. Numerous studies, using diverse methodologies and measures of climate expertise, have quantified the scientific consensus, finding between 90% and 100% agreement on human-caused global warming with multiple studies converging on 97% agreement. This study revisits the consensus among geoscientists ten years after an initial survey of experts, while exploring different ways to define expertise and the …

On The Need To Determine Accurately The Impact Of Higher-Order Sensitivities On Model Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Quantification And Best-Estimate Predictions, Dan Gabriel Cacuci

Faculty Publications

This work aims at underscoring the need for the accurate quantification of the sensitivities (i.e., functional derivatives) of the results (a.k.a. “responses”) produced by large-scale computational models with respect to the models’ parameters, which are seldom known perfectly in practice. The large impact that can arise from sensitivities of order higher than first has been highlighted by the results of a third-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which will be briefly reviewed in this work to underscore that neglecting the higherorder sensitivities causes substantial errors in predicting the expectation and variance of model responses. The …

Performance-Based Building System Manufacturer Selection Decision Framework For Integration Into Total Cost Of Ownership Evaluations, Sarah L. Brown, Steven J. Schuldt, Michael N. Grussing, Louis B. Bartels, Michael A. Johnson, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

Facility managers are often faced with building system procurement or replacement decisions, requiring them to select a system from among competitive manufacturers. Total cost of ownership (TCO) criteria, informed by built assets in operation in the manager’s portfolio, provides some information to select the right asset manufacturer. However, managers must also consider technical performance to complete a more comprehensive analysis. Performance can be calculated using asset parameters like condition, age, and variation in condition to aid in TCO assessments. Leveraging past research and approaches, performance is calculated using an additive model that scales each parameter using a standard normalization technique …

Reinvigorating A Technical Countering Weapons Of Mass Destruction Distance Learning Graduate Certificate Program, James C. Petrosky, Gaiven Varshney, Jeremy Slagley, Sara Shaghaghi

Faculty Publications

Current Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) demands can be divided broadly into policy and science. The science of chemical, biological, and radiological/nuclear weapons informs the limits of development, production, employment, operation, detection, risk characterization, human and material protection, and medical intervention. In short, the science of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should precede and inform the development of policy. It is to this end that the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) CWMD program was re-established, providing a technical educational option for practitioners to understand the science behind a very technically challenging subject.

Survivability Analysis In The Shadow Of Apollo: Part I - Cislunar Debris Propagation And Spacecraft Vulnerability, Nathan R. Boone, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

Although the reality of routine travel and sustained operations and habitation in space likely remains several decades away, the building blocks of space exploration and space system development necessary to realize this reality are currently being laid by peer, near-peer, and emerging space-faring nations. Traditionally, global space operations were notionally limited to near-Earth space, with mission altitudes extending to geosynchronous or even highly elliptical orbits. During the 2010s, however, space operations began moving beyond this paradigm to encompass cislunar space with reinvigorated U.S. initiatives to return to the Moon via the Artemis program, planned commercial space projects, and an accelerated …

Solar Cell Brdf Measurement And Modeling With Out-Of-Plane Data, Todd V. Small, Samuel D. Butler, Michael A. Marciniak

Faculty Publications

In this work, a CCD-augmented complete angle scatter instrument (CASI) with a visible red laser source was used to measure the BRDF of a commercially available solar cell designed for small satellites, simultaneously capturing both in-plane and out-of-plane data with high angular resolution surrounding the specular direction. The measurements exhibited three distinct scatter features: a central specular peak, an offset specular peak, and a diffraction pattern. The two peaks were caused by different material surfaces with slightly different normal directions, and the diffraction pattern arose from periodically-spaced metal conducting bars running in one direction across the solar cell surface. The …

Fe-Catalyzed Sulfide Oxidation In Hydrothermal Plumes Is A Source Of Reactive Oxygen Species To The Ocean, Timothy J. Shaw, George W. Luther Iii, Richard Rosas, Véronique E. Oldham, Nicole R. Coffey, John L. Ferry, Dewamunnage M. C. Dias, Mustafa Yücel, Aubin Thibault De Chanvalon

Faculty Publications

Historically, the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the ocean has been attributed to photochemical and biochemical reactions. However, hydrothermal vents emit globally significant inventories of reduced Fe and S species that should react rapidly with oxygen in bottom water and serve as a heretofore unmeasured source of ROS. Here, we show that the Fe-catalyzed oxidation of reduced sulfur species in hydrothermal vent plumes in the deep oceans supported the abiotic formation of ROS at concentrations 20 to 100 times higher than the average for photoproduced ROS in surface waters. ROS (measured as hydrogen peroxide) were determined in hydrothermal …

Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (Dune) Near Detector Conceptual Design Report, A. Abed Abud, B. Abi, R. Acciarri, M. A. Acero, G. Adamov, D. Adams, M. Adinolfi, A. Aduzskiewicz, Z. Ahmad, J. Ahmed, T. Alion, S. Alonso Monsalve, M. Alrashed, C. Alt, A. Alton, P. Amedo, J. Anderson, C. Andreopoulos, M. P. Andrews, F. Andrianala, Roberto Petti, Et. Al.

Faculty Publications

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international, world-class experiment aimed at exploring fundamental questions about the universe that are at the forefront of astrophysics and particle physics research. DUNE will study questions pertaining to the preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early universe, the dynamics of supernovae, the subtleties of neutrino interaction physics, and a number of beyond the Standard Model topics accessible in a powerful neutrino beam. A critical component of the DUNE physics program involves the study of changes in a powerful beam of neutrinos, i.e., neutrino oscillations, as the neutrinos propagate a long distance. …

Intelligent Optimization Algorithm-Based Path Planning For A Mobile Robot, Qisong Song, Shaobo Li, Jing Yang, Qiang Bai, Jianjun Hu, Xingxing Zhang, Ansi Zhang

Faculty Publications

The purpose of mobile robot path planning is to produce the optimal safe path. However, mobile robots have poor real-time obstacle avoidance in local path planning and longer paths in global path planning. In order to improve the accuracy of real-time obstacle avoidance prediction of local path planning, shorten the path length of global path planning, reduce the path planning time, and then obtain a better safe path, we propose a real-time obstacle avoidance decision model based on machine learning (ML) algorithms, an improved smooth rapidly exploring random tree (S-RRT) algorithm, and an improved hybrid genetic algorithm-ant colony optimization (HGA-ACO). …

Recent Development Of Unpowered Exoskeletons For Lower Extremity: A Survey, Tao Liu, Bin Zhang, Bin Zhang, Micheal G. Pecht

Faculty Publications

Unpowered exoskeletons (UEs) have attracted extensive research attentions for their portability, handleability and simplicity. However, designing exoskeletons without any active actuators is a great challenge because essential criteria such as performance enhancement, low impedance, and comfort must be met. This paper reviews the UEs researches from three aspects including modeling for understanding gait pattern, mechanical designs, and validation methods, which are main considerations of designing UEs. This review is based on the reported works in the past two decades and underlines some practical opportunities and challenges. Statistical data analysis and critical reviews are stated to understand human gait patterns, designing …

The Response Of Airborne Mycobiome To Dust Storms In The Eastern Mediterranean, Xuefeng Peng, Daniela Gat, Adina Paytan, Yinon Rudich

Faculty Publications

Airborne microbial communities directly impact the health of humans, animals, plants, and receiving ecosystems. While airborne bacterial and fungal communities have been studied by both cultivation-based methods and metabarcoding surveys targeting specific molecular markers, fewer studies have used shotgun metagenomics to study the airborne mycobiome. We analyzed the diversity and relative abundance of fungi in nine airborne metagenomes collected on clear days (“background”) and during dust storms in the Eastern Mediterranean. The negative correlation between the relative abundance of fungal reads and the concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 μm (PM10) indicate that dust …

Recoverability For Optimized Quantum F-Divergences, Li Gao, Mark M. Wilde

Faculty Publications

The optimized quantum f -divergences form a family of distinguishability measures that includes the quantum relative entropy and the sandwiched R'enyi relative quasi-entropy as special cases. In this paper, we establish physically meaningful refinements of the data-processing inequality for the optimized f -divergence. In particular, the refinements state that the absolute difference between the optimized f -divergence and its channel-processed version is an upper bound on howwell one can recover a quantum state acted upon by a quantum channel, whenever the recovery channel is taken to be a rotated Petz recovery channel.Not only do these results lead to physically meaningful …

Estimated Prevalence Of Smoking And Smoking-Attributable Mortality Associated With Graphic Health Warnings On Cigarette Packages In The Us From 2022 To 2100, Jamie Tam, Jihyoun Jeon, Jim Thrasher Ph.D., Ma, Ms, David Hammond, Theodore R. Holford, David T. Levy, Rafael Meza

Faculty Publications

Question What are the estimated population health outcomes associated with implementation of graphic health warnings on cigarette packages in 2022 and with delayed implementation of the warnings since 2012, as originally planned, in the US?

Findings In this decision analytical model using simulation modeling of smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality in the US from 2012 to 2100, graphic health warnings, if implemented from 2022 to 2100, would be associated with 539 000 smoking-attributable deaths averted and 7.9 million life-years gained, and if implemented in 2012, with 718 000 deaths averted and 11.2 million life-years gained through 2100.

Meaning These findings …

Men’S Comfort In Distributing Or Receiving Hiv Self-Test Kits From Close Male Social Network Members In Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania: Baseline Results From The Step Project, Joseph K.B. Matovu, Gaspar Mbita, Akeen Hamilton, Frank Mhando, Wynton M. Sims, Noah Thompson, Albert N. Komba, Jackson Lija, Jiajia Zhang Ph.D., Thomas Van Den Akker, Dustin T. Duncan, Augustine T. Choko, Donaldson F. Conserve

Faculty Publications

Background

A variety of strategies have been used to reach men with HIV self-testing services, including social network-based HIV self-test kits distribution. However, few studies have assessed men’s comfort to distribute to or receive HIV self-test kits from close male friends within the same social network. In this study, we assessed men’s comfort to distribute to and/or receive HIV self-test kits from close male friends and associated factors among men who socialize in networks locally referred to as “camps” in Tanzania.

Methods

Data are from the baseline survey of a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in June 2019 with 18 social …

Recognition And Screening For Chagas Disease In The Usa, Rachel Marcus, Andres F. Henao-Martinez, Melissa Nolan Ph.D., Mph, Elizabeth Livingston, Stephen A. Klotz, Robert H. Gilman, Monica Miranda-Schaeubinger, Sheba Meymandi

Faculty Publications

Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a public health concern, mainly among countries in South and Central America. However, despite the large number of immigrants from endemic countries living in the USA, awareness of CD is poor in the medical community, and therefore it is significantly underdiagnosed. To avoid the catastrophic cardiac complications of CD and to prevent maternal–fetal transmission, widespread educational programs highlighting the need for diagnosis are urgently needed.

Increasing The Spatial And Temporal Impact Of Ecological Research: A Roadmap For Integrating A Novel Terrestrial Process Into An Earth System Model, Emily Kyker-Snowman, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gordon B. Bonan, Susan J. Cheng, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Serita D. Frey, Elin M. Jacobs, Risa Mcnellis, Joshua M. Rady, Nicholas G. Smith, R. Quinn Thomas, William R. Wieder, A. Stuart Grandy

Faculty Publications

Terrestrial ecosystems regulate Earth's climate through water, energy, and biogeochemical transformations. Despite a key role in regulating the Earth system, terrestrial ecology has historically been underrepresented in the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to understand and project global environmental change. Ecology and Earth system modeling must be integrated for scientists to fully comprehend the role of ecological systems in driving and responding to global change. Ecological insights can improve ESM realism and reduce process uncertainty, while ESMs offer ecologists an opportunity to broadly test ecological theory and increase the impact of their work by scaling concepts through time …

The Ghost Of Hosts Past: Impacts Of Host Extinction On Parasite Specificity, Maxwell J. Farrell, Andrew W. Park, Clayton E. Cressler, Tad Dallas, Shan Huang, Nicole Mideo, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, T. Jonathan Davies, Patrick Stephens

Faculty Publications

A growing body of research is focused on the extinction of parasite species in response to host endangerment and declines. Beyond the loss of parasite species richness, host extinction can impact apparent parasite host specificity, as measured by host richness or the phylogenetic distances among hosts. Such impacts on the distribution of parasites across the host phylogeny can have knock-on effects that may reshape the adaptation of both hosts and parasites, ultimately shifting the evolutionary landscape underlying the potential for emergence and the evolution of virulence across hosts. Here, we examine how the reshaping of host phylogenies through extinction may …

Does A Bottom-Up Mechanism Promote Hypoxia In The Mississippi Bight?, Virginie Sanial, Willard S. Moore, Alan M. Shiller

Faculty Publications

The Mississippi Bight, east of the Mississippi River, is a complex coastal ecosystem that, like the better-known Louisiana Shelf to the west, experiences seasonal bottom water hypoxia. However, input of allochthonous nutrients from the Mississippi River to the Mississippi Bight appears to be limited, begging the question of what drives seasonal hypoxia in this system. Prior research has suggested submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) could be an overlooked component of the Mississippi Bight biogeochemical system. We thus examined the hypothesis that SGD provides a “bottom up” driver for seasonal hypoxia in this area. We used a multi-tracer approach based on known …

The Future Of Zoonotic Risk Prediction, Colin J. Carlson, Maxwell J. Farrell, Zoe Grange, Barbara A. Han, Nardus Mollentze, Alexandra L. Phelan, Angela L. Rasmussen, Gregory F. Albery, Bernard Bett, David M. Brett-Major, Lily E. Cohen, Tad Dallas, Evan A. Eskew, Anna C. Fagre, Kristian M. Forbes, Rory Gibb, Sam Halabi, Charlotte C. Hammer, Rebecca Katz, Jason Kindrachuk, Renata L. Muylaert, Felicia B. Nutter, Joseph Ogola, Kevin J. Olival, Michelle Rourke, Sadie J. Ryan, Noam Ross, Stephanie N. Seifert, Tarja Sironen, Claire J. Standley, Kishana Taylor, Marietjie Venter, Paul W. Webala

Faculty Publications

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open …

Patterns And Trends Of Organic Matter Processing And Transport: Insights From The Us Long-Term Ecological Research Network, Tamara K. Harms, Peter M. Groffman, Lihini Aluwihare, Christopher Craft, William R. Wieder, Sarah E. Hobbie, Sara G. Baer, John M. Blair, Serita D. Frey, Christina K. Remucal, Jennifer A. Rudgers, Scott L. Collins, John S. Kominoski, Becky A. Ball, Lter Om Working Group

Faculty Publications

Organic matter (OM) dynamics determine how much carbon is stored in ecosystems, a service that modulates climate. We synthesized research from across the US Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network to assemble a conceptual model of OM dynamics that is consistent with inter-disciplinary perspectives and emphasizes vulnerability of OM pools to disturbance. Guided by this conceptual model, we identified unanticipated patterns and long-term trends in processing and transport of OM emerging from terrestrial, freshwater, wetland, and marine ecosystems. Cross-ecosystem synthesis combined with a survey of researchers revealed several themes: 1) strong effects of climate change on OM dynamics, 2) surprising patterns …