Digital Commons Network^™

Robust Inference For Time Varying Predictability: A Sieve-Ivx Approach, Nan Liu, Peter C.B. Phillips, Yajie Zhang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of predictability. To address these issues the present work proposes a semiparametric predictive regression model with mixed-root regressors and time-varying coefficients that allow for smooth evolution in the generating mechanism over time. For estimation and inference a …

Are Stock Returns And Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests that both stock returns and economic growth are significantly higher under Democratic presidential administrations. This is a puzzle in that persistent differences in stock returns seem unlikely in efficient markets, and it is not obvious why Democrats should do better. Often these kinds of results go away upon further analysis or more data, and this appears to be true in the present case. In this paper the sample is extended to 28 administrations, fromWilson-1 through Biden. While the mean stock return under the Democrats is higher, none of the differences in means is significant at conventional significance …

Key Ecb Interest Rates, European Central Bank

Documents

No abstract provided.

Screening With Persuasion, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze a nonlinear pricing model where the seller controls both product pricing (screening) and buyer information about their own values (persuasion).

We prove that the optimal mechanism always consists of finitely many signals and items, even with a continuum of buyer values. The seller optimally pools buyer values and reduces product variety to minimize informational rents.

We show that value pooling is optimal even for finite value distributions if their entropy exceeds a critical threshold. We also provide sufficient conditions under which the optimal menu restricts offering to a single item.

Jamie Dimon Talks About Regulation, Remote Work, And What Keeps Him Up At Night, Michael Mcdowell

Documents

No abstract provided.

Speculative Bubbles In The Recent Ai Boom: Nasdaq And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The recent artificial intelligence (AI) boom covers a period of rapid innovation and wide adoption of AI intelligence technologies across diverse industries. These developments have fueled an unprecedented frenzy in the Nasdaq, with AI-focused companies experiencing soaring stock prices that raise concerns about speculative bubbles and real-economy consequences. Against this background the present study investigates the formation of speculative bubbles in the Nasdaq stock market with a specific focus on the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ (Mag-7) individual stocks during the AI boom, spanning the period January 2017 to January 2025. We apply the real time PSY bubble detection methodology of Phillips …

Rushing To Judgment And The Banking Crisis Of 2023, Steven Kelly, Jonathan Rose

Documents

No abstract provided.

Bidding With Budgets: Algorithmic And Data-Driven Bids In Digital Advertising, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, Nicholas Wu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In digital advertising, the allocation of sponsored search, sponsored product, or display advertisements is mediated by auctions. The generation of bids in these auctions for attention is increasingly supported by auto-bidding algorithms and platform-provided data. We analyze the equilibrium properties of a sequence of increasingly sophisticated auto-bidding algorithms. First, we consider the equilibrium bidding behavior of an individual advertiser who controls the auto-bidding algorithm through the choice of their budget. Second, we examine the interaction when all bidders use budget-controlled bidding algorithms. Finally, we derive the bidding algorithm that maximizes the platform’s revenue while ensuring all advertisers continue to participate.

Comptroller's Handbook: Interest Rate Risk (Version 1.0), United States: Department Of The Treasury: Office Of The Comptroller Of The Currency

Documents

No abstract provided.

Conviction, Incarceration, And Recidivism: Understanding The Revolving Door, John Eric Humphries, Aurélie Ouss, Kamelia Stavreva, Megan Stevenson, Winnie Van Dijk

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual incarcerated, there are approximately three who were recently convicted but not sentenced to prison or jail. We extend the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple treatments and use it to study the consequences of noncarceral conviction. We outline assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when a key assumption on judge decision-making is not met. We find that noncarceral …

Multidimensional Monotonicity And Economic Applications, Frank Yang, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We characterize the extreme points of multidimensional monotone functions from [0,1]^n to [0,1], as well as the extreme points of the set of one-dimensional marginals of these functions. These characterizations lead to new results in various mechanism design and information design problems, including public good provision with interdependent values; interim efficient bilateral trade mechanisms; asymmetric reduced form auctions; and optimal private private information structure. As another application, we also present a mechanism anti-equivalence theorem for two-agent, two-alternative social choice problems: A mechanism is payoff-equivalent to a deterministic DIC mechanism if and only if they are ex-post equivalent.

Review Of Building Representative Community Archives: Inclusive Strategies In Practice, Shir Bach

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

In Building Representative Community Archives, editor Hannah Leah Crummé sets out to provide a practical guide to building community archives through ten case studies. The volume covers three types of projects: oral history, collection and curation, and reassessment. With some exceptions, community-created and community-maintained archives are sidelined in this collection. The majority of case studies describe academic special collections units embracing community archival principles and practices to meet their own goals, and some chapters do not meaningfully engage with community archives at all. Though many chapters succeed on their own terms, the misleading framing produces a collection that is …

Teaching Archival Intelligence Through An Immersive Class Experience, Dulce Kersting-Lark

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

While the University of Idaho does not offer course work in library and information sciences, there is a growing interest in humanities and social science departments on campus to offer skill-based classes that are often found in MLIS programs with an emphasis in archival studies. In particular, building skills considered essential to a public historian has become a goal for the history department's graduate program. As a result, the head of the university library's archives was approached to teach a credit-bearing course on working in archives as well as developing strategies for making archival material engaging to the public. This …

Our Timeline, Canada: Office Of The Superintendent Of Financial Institutions

Documents

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Education Policy On Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective, Ulrika Ahrsjö, Costas Meghir, Mårten Palme, Marieke Schnabel

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. We use Swedish administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records, and we show that the comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates both for the generation directly affected by the reform and for their sons. The reduction in conviction rates occurred in many types of crime. The key mediators of this reduction in child generation are an increase in education and household income and a decrease in crime among their fathers.

Digital Ecosystems And Data Regulation, Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou, Junjie Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper provides a framework in which a multiproduct ecosystem competes with many single-product firms in both price and innovation. The ecosystem is able to use data collected on one product to improve the quality of its other products. We study the impact of data regulation which either restricts the ecosystem's cross-product data usage, or which requires it to share data with small firms. Each policy induces small firms to innovate more and set higher prices; it also dampens data spillovers within the ecosystem, reduces the ecosystem's incentive to collect data and innovate, and potentially increases its prices. As a …

Supply Chain Disruptions, Supplier Capital, And Financial Constraints, Ernest Liu, Yukun Liu, Vladimir Smirnyagin, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the impact of supply chain disruptions on U.S. firms based on the universe of seaborne shipment-level import transactions from 2013 to 2023. The granularity of the data allows us to build an index of firm-level disruptions of international suppliers and introduce a comprehensive set of stylized facts for supply chain relationships in the cross-section of firms. We build a general equilibrium heterogeneous firms model with two types of capital stocks—physical and international supplier capitals. Accumulation of supplier capital is an important endogenous margin of adjustment, and limiting this ability substantially delays recovery, especially in financially constrained firms.

The Economics Of Large Language Models: Token Allocation, Fine-Tuning, And Optimal Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, Alex Smolin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop an economic framework to analyze the optimal pricing and product design of Large Language Models (LLM). Our framework captures several key features of LLMs: variable operational costs of processing input and output tokens; the ability to customize models through fine-tuning; and high-dimensional user heterogeneity in terms of task requirements and error sensitivity. In our model, a monopolistic seller offers multiple versions of LLMs through a menu of products. The optimal pricing structure depends on whether token allocation across tasks is contractible and whether users face scale constraints. Users with similar aggregate value-scale characteristics choose similar levels of fine-tuning …

Optimal Pricing Of Cloud Services: Committed Spend Under Demand Uncertainty, Dirk Bergemann, Michael C. Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider a seller who offers services to a buyer with multi-unit demand. Prior to the realization of demand, the buyer receives a noisy signal of their future demand, and the seller can design contracts based on the reported value of this signal. Thus, the buyer can contract with the service provider for an unknown level of future consumption, such as in the market for cloud computing resources or software services. We characterize the optimal dynamic contract, extending the classic sequential screening framework to a nonlinear and multi-unit setting. The optimal mechanism gives discounts to buyers who report higher signals, …

Robust Pricing For Cloud Computing, Dirk Bergemann, Rahul Deb

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the robust sequential screening problem of a monopolist seller of multiple cloud computing services facing a buyer who has private information about his demand distribution for these services. At the time of contracting, the buyer knows the distribution of his demand of various services and the seller simply knows the mean of the buyer’s total demand. We show that a simple “committed spend mechanism” is robustly optimal: it provides the seller with the highest profit guarantee against all demand distributions that have the known total mean demand. This mechanism requires the buyer to commit to a minimum total …

U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2023, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the history of U.S. infrastructure since 1929 and in the process reports an interesting fact about the U.S. economy. Infrastructure stock as a percent of GDP began a steady decline around 1970, and the government budget deficit became positive and large at roughly the same time. The infrastructure pattern in other countries does not mirror that in the United States, so the United States appears to be a special case. The overall results suggest that the United States became less future oriented beginning around 1970, an increase in the social discount rate. This change has persisted. This …

Intra-Household Welfare Inequality And Household Public Goods, Pierre-André Chiappori, Costas Meghir, Yoko Okuyama

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper we develop a novel approach to measuring individual welfare within households, recognizing that individuals may have both different preferences (particularly regarding public consumption) and differential access to resources. We construct a money metric measure of welfare that accounts for public goods (by using personalized prices) and the allocation of time. We then use our conceptual framework to analyse intrahousehold inequality in Japan, allowing for the presence of two public goods: expenditures on children and other public goods including housing. We show empirically that women have much stronger preferences for both public goods and this has critical implications …

Ypfs Lessons Learned Oral History Project: An Interview With Pedro Machado, Pedro Machado, Mercedes Cardona

Documents

No abstract provided.

Ypfs Lessons Learned Oral History Project: An Interview With Anthony Dowd, Anthony Dowd, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Mercedes Cardona

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No abstract provided.

12 Cfr Part 249 Subpart D -- Total Net Cash Outflow, Federal Reserve System: Board Of Governors

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No abstract provided.

12 Cfr Part 217 -- Capital Adequacy Of Bank Holding Companies, Savings And Loan Holding Companies, And State Member Banks (Regulation Q), Federal Reserve System: Board Of Governors

Documents

No abstract provided.

Ypfs Lessons Learned Oral History Project: An Interview With Masaaki Shirakawa, Masaaki Shirakawa, Mercedes A. Cardona, Benjamin Hoffner

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No abstract provided.

Ypfs Lessons Learned Oral History Project: An Interview With Francesco Papadia, Francesco Papadia, Mercedes Cardona, Stella Schaefer-Brown

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No abstract provided.

The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (Pdufa): The Design, Evolution, And Challenges Of User Fees And The Reauthorization Process, Therese Ziaks

Public Health Theses

The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) has had a critical role in funding the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) through the form of industry user fees since 1992 with user fees comprising 48% of the FDA’s Fiscal Year 2024 budget. As the FDA faced pressure from Congress and the pharmaceutical industry to reduce drug application review times, the legislation was enacted to provide a funding source in addition to Congressional appropriations so the agency could meet proposed review time goals. As the FDA began to hire additional review staff, reduce application review times, and increase the number of pharmaceuticals …

Digital Flexor Tendon Repair With Barbed Suture: A Biomechanical Study, Alexander Kammien

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Background: Few prior studies have investigated work of flexion following knotless digital flexor tendon repair using barbed suture. Existing evidence is mixed: some studies report no difference between knotted and knotless techniques, while others show increased work of flexion with knotless techniques. This biomechanical study aimed to strengthen current evidence by comparing knotted and knotless flexor tendon repairs.

Methods: Two knotted and two knotless techniques for flexor tendon repair were evaluated. Each repair was tested in twelve cadaveric flexor digitorum profundus (FDP) tendons. Work of flexion was measured prior to repair. FDP tendons were lacerated and repaired using knotted or …