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Full-Text Articles in Entire DC Network
Nota Bene; Volume Ii, Number Iii, Yale University Library
Nota Bene; Volume Ii, Number Iii, Yale University Library
Nota Bene
Nota Bene is published during the academic year to acquaint the Yale community and others with the resources of the Yale Library.
Warranties As Signals Under Consumer Moral Hazard, Nancy A. Lutz
Warranties As Signals Under Consumer Moral Hazard, Nancy A. Lutz
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper, I examine whether and how warranties serve as signals of product quality in an environment where there are opportunities for consumer moral hazard. My model is very similar to Grossman’s. A risk neutral monopolist produced a good of fixed and exogenous quality. This product is offered to a market of identical risk-averse consumers, and it can be bundled with a warranty of the monopolist’s choosing. The probability that the product breaks down is a function of its quality and the effort the consumer takes in using it. This consumer effort cannot be observed by the monopolist or …
Gold, Liquidity And Secured Loans In A Multistage Economy. Part I: Gold As Money, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Gold, Liquidity And Secured Loans In A Multistage Economy. Part I: Gold As Money, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A multiperiod exchange economy with gold used both as money and as jewelry is examined in this paper. The existence of Nash equilibria is proved for the market games with finitely many traders as well as the games with a continuum of traders. For market games with a continuum of traders at infinite horizon, the existence of stationary Nash equilibria has been proved under the assumption that gold is properly distributed at the beginning or a secured loan between traders is available.
Knightian Decision Theory And Econometric Inference, Truman F. Bewley
Knightian Decision Theory And Econometric Inference, Truman F. Bewley
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper I attempt to reconcile the apparent definiteness of econometric practice with the vagueness of subjective probabilities assumed in Knightian decision theory. I argue that some standard uses of classical inference are Knightian in spirit, even though the formal justification of classical methods uses the frequentist notion of probability. Classical confidence regions may be viewed as defining sets of posterior means corresponding to a standardized set of prior distributions. Tests of the null hypothesis that a parameter equals a particular value may be viewed as determining whether it is rational, from a Knightian point of view, to act …
Statistical Inference In Instrumental Variables Regression With I(1) Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Bruce E. Hansen
Statistical Inference In Instrumental Variables Regression With I(1) Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Bruce E. Hansen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the asymptotic properties of instrumental variable (IV) estimates of multivariate cointegrating regressions. The framework of study is based on earlier work by Phillips and Durlauf (1986) and Park and Phillips (1988, 1989). In particular, the results in these papers are extended to allow for IV regressions that accommodate deterministic and stochastic regressors as well as quite general deterministic processes in the data generating mechanism. It is found that IV regressions are consistent even when the instruments are stochastically independent of the regressors. This phenomenon, which contrasts with traditional theory for stationary time series, is a beneficial artifact …
Yale Scientific Magazine: Volume 62, Number 3
Yale Scientific Magazine: Volume 62, Number 3
Yale Scientific Magazine
No abstract provided.
Statement Of Alan Greenspan Before The Committee On Banking, Finance And Urban Affairs, U.S. House Of Representatives, Alan Greenspan
Statement Of Alan Greenspan Before The Committee On Banking, Finance And Urban Affairs, U.S. House Of Representatives, Alan Greenspan
Documents
Full Title-"Statement by Alan Greenspan Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs U.S. House of Representatives"
Testimony By Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System, Before The Committee On Banking, Housing, And Urban Affairs, United States Senate, Alan Greenspan
Documents
No abstract provided.
Bank Runs In Open Economies And International Transmission Of Panics, Peter Garber, Vittorio Grilli
Bank Runs In Open Economies And International Transmission Of Panics, Peter Garber, Vittorio Grilli
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Tariffs And Saving In A Model With New Families, Charles Engel, Kenneth Kletzer
Tariffs And Saving In A Model With New Families, Charles Engel, Kenneth Kletzer
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Food Aid: A Cause, Or Symptom Of Development Failure Or An Instrument For Success?, T. N. Srinivasan
Food Aid: A Cause, Or Symptom Of Development Failure Or An Instrument For Success?, T. N. Srinivasan
Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Increases In Risk Aversion And Portfolio Choice In A Complete Market, Philip H. Dybvig
Increases In Risk Aversion And Portfolio Choice In A Complete Market, Philip H. Dybvig
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This note examines the effect of changes in risk aversion on the optimal portfolio choice in a complete market. It is shown that an agent who is less risk averse in the Pratt (1964) sense than another will choose a portfolio whose payoff is distributed as the other’s payoff plus a nonnegative random variable plus conditional-mean-zero noise. The proof of the result uses simple first order conditions and basic results from stochastic dominance.
Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller
Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper presents estimates indicating that, for aggregate U.S. stock market data 1871-1986, a long historical average of real earnings is a good predictor of the present value of future real dividends. This is true even when the information contained in stock prices is taken into account. We estimate that for each year the optimal forecast of the present value of future real dividends is roughly a weighted average of moving average earnings and current real price, with between 2/3 and 3/4 of the weight on the earnings measure. This means that simple present value models of stock market prices …
Nonnegative Wealth, Absence Of Arbitrage, And Feasible Consumption Plans, Philip H. Dybvig, Chi-Fu Huang
Nonnegative Wealth, Absence Of Arbitrage, And Feasible Consumption Plans, Philip H. Dybvig, Chi-Fu Huang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A restriction to nonnegative wealth is sufficient to preclude all arbitrage opportunities in financial models that have risk neutral probabilities that are valid for all simple strategies. Imposing nonnegative wealth does not constrain agents from making the choice they would make under the standard integrability condition. This conclusion does not depend on whether the markets are complete.
A Centered Projective Algorithm For Linear Programming, Michael J. Todd, Yinyu Ye
A Centered Projective Algorithm For Linear Programming, Michael J. Todd, Yinyu Ye
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We describe a projective algorithm for linear programming that shares features with Karmarkar’s projective algorithm and its variants and with the path-following methods of Gonzaga, Kojima-Mizuno-Yoshise, Monteiro-Adler, Renegar, Vaidya and Ye. It operates in a primal-dual setting, stays close to the central trajectories, and converges in O ( /n x L ) iterations like the latter methods. (Here n is the number of variables and L the input size of the problem). However, it is motivated by seeking reductions in a suitable potential function as in projective algorithms, and the approximate centering is an automatic byproduct of our choice of …
Appropriating The Returns From Industrial R&D, Richard C. Levin, Alvin K. Klevorick, Richard R. Nelson, Sidney G. Winter
Appropriating The Returns From Industrial R&D, Richard C. Levin, Alvin K. Klevorick, Richard R. Nelson, Sidney G. Winter
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper, we describe the results of an inquiry into the nature of appropriability conditions in over one hundred manufacturing industries, and we discuss how this information has been and might be used to cast light on important issues in the economics of innovation and public policy. Our data, derived from a survey of high-level R&D executives, are informed opinions about the nature of an industry’s technological and economic environment rather than quantitative measures of inputs and outputs.
Generic Inefficiency Of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Michael Magill, Martine Quinzii, Jacques Dréze
Generic Inefficiency Of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Michael Magill, Martine Quinzii, Jacques Dréze
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A stock market is a mechanism by which the ownership and control of firms is determined through the trading of securities. It is on this market that many of the major risks faced by society are shared through the exchange of securities and the production decisions that influence the present and future supply of resources are determined. If the overall structure of markets is incomplete can the stock market be expected to perform its role of exchanging risks and allocating investment efficiently? It is this question that we seek to answer.
Common Knowledge Of Summary Statistics, Adam Brandenburger, John Geanakoplos
Common Knowledge Of Summary Statistics, Adam Brandenburger, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Consider a group of people who are asked to offer their opinions on some issue. “Business confidence” surveys are an example: groups of businessmen are often asked for their predictions of economic indicators such as growth or inflation rates. Each member of the group makes a prediction based on his or her private information, and the average prediction is then publicly announced. If the members of the group are then allowed to revise their opinions, based on whatever information they glean from the public announcement, is there any tendency for the opinions in the group to converge on a common, …
Distributions, Peter C.B. Phillips
Distributions, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Formulae are derived for the characteristic function of the inverted Dirichlet distribution and hence the multivariate F . The analysis involves a new function with multiple arguments that extends the confluent hypergeometric function of the second kind. This function and its properties are studied in the paper and a simple integral representation is given which is useful for numerical work. A special case connected with the multivariate t distribution is also explored.
Optimal Inference In Cointegrated Systems, Peter C.B. Phillips
Optimal Inference In Cointegrated Systems, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the properties of maximum likelihood estimates of co-integrated systems. Alternative formulations of such models are considered including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. It is shown that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within the family that is covered by the locally asymptotically mixed normal asymptotic theory provided that all unit roots in the system have been eliminated by specification and data transformation. This result has far reaching consequences. It means that cointegrating coefficient estimates are symmetrically distributed and median unbiased asymptotically, that an optimal asymptotic theory of inference applies and that hypothesis …
The October 1987 Market Break: A Report By The Division Of Market Regulation, Us Securities And Exchange Commission, United States: Securities And Exchange Commission (Sec)
The October 1987 Market Break: A Report By The Division Of Market Regulation, Us Securities And Exchange Commission, United States: Securities And Exchange Commission (Sec)
Documents
No abstract provided.
Joint Statement By The President And Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita Of Japan On Economic Issues, Ronald Reagan, Noboru Takeshita
Joint Statement By The President And Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita Of Japan On Economic Issues, Ronald Reagan, Noboru Takeshita
Documents
No abstract provided.
Nota Bene; Volume Ii, Number Ii, Yale University Library
Nota Bene; Volume Ii, Number Ii, Yale University Library
Nota Bene
Nota Bene is published during the academic year to acquaint the Yale community and others with the resources of the Yale Library.
Nota Bene; Volume Ii, Number I, Yale University Library
Nota Bene; Volume Ii, Number I, Yale University Library
Nota Bene
Nota Bene is published during the academic year to acquaint the Yale community and others with the resources of the Yale Library.
Interaction Of Internal Waves And Mean Flow Observed Near A Coast, Pijush K. Kundu, Richard E. Thomson, Barbara M. Hickey, Paul H. Leblond
Interaction Of Internal Waves And Mean Flow Observed Near A Coast, Pijush K. Kundu, Richard E. Thomson, Barbara M. Hickey, Paul H. Leblond
Journal of Marine Research
Vortex stretching has been proposed as a possible mechanism by which internal waves can extract energy from the mean flow. Relationships between the slowly varying (ω < 0.25 cpd) and rapidly varying (0.13 cph < ω < 0.5 cph) components of the flow have been examined in a 4-month-long data set taken off the coast of British Columbia. The rapidly varying component of horizontal velocity generally rotates clockwise, and is in rough agreement with internal wave dynamics. It is horizontally incoherent within a distance of 10 km and is vertically coherent across the water column with a nearly 180° phase change. Scatter plots show that the wavefield is anisotropic, with the Reynolds stresses generally obeying uv < 0, vw < 0 and uw > 0, where (u, v, w) are the fluctuating velocity components in the (onshore, alongshore, upward) directions. Instances have been found in which time variations of uv and the mean horizontal shear rate Vx are negatively correlated, with an implied horizontal viscosity of VH ∼ (3 ± 2) × 105 cm2/s. No correlation of vw and the mean vertical shear V …
A Numerical Model Study Of Internal Tides On The Australian Northwest Shelf, Peter D. Craig
A Numerical Model Study Of Internal Tides On The Australian Northwest Shelf, Peter D. Craig
Journal of Marine Research
Models of internal tides have been difficult to apply to realistic ocean situations because of restrictive assumptions on the form of either the bottom topography or the vertical density structure. A numerical model, based on the analytic model of Craig (1987a), is applied to a section through the Australian Northwest Shelf, and the results compared with data collected at the North Rankin location. The model simulates accurately the amplitude and phase structure of the internal tide. The predicted temperature and current amplitudes are within one-third of those observed, but the phase relationship between the temperature and surface tide is different …
Cross-Phyletic Patterns Of Particle Selection By Deposit Feeders, Robert F. L. Self, Peter A. Jumars
Cross-Phyletic Patterns Of Particle Selection By Deposit Feeders, Robert F. L. Self, Peter A. Jumars
Journal of Marine Research
In controlled laboratory experiments using a wide array of exotic sediments of known characteristics (glass and plastic beads) we studied the mechanical, evolutionarily-fixed component of particle selection for ingestion in 5 surface and 6 subsurface deposit feeders, from 3 phyla (Annelida, Mollusca and Arthropoda). Three species were nonselective within all or part of the 3-324 μm particle size range tested, while the remaining 8 species exhibited unimodal patterns of size selection, peaking near 6 μm. In addition, the surface deposit feeders displayed a strong preference for particles of low specific gravity. Particle selection in tube construction by the polychaetes …
On The Surface Drift Of The Southern Ocean, J. R. E. Lutjeharms, L. V. Shannon, L. J. Beekman
On The Surface Drift Of The Southern Ocean, J. R. E. Lutjeharms, L. V. Shannon, L. J. Beekman
Journal of Marine Research
Drift rates of the sea surface have been calculated for the South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean using drift cards and FGGE buoys. Drift patterns and drift rates, based on results from 40,000 plastic drift cards placed from 1978 to 1981, indicate significant equatorward surface exchange between the Southern Ocean and subtropical ocean gyres. Card drift rates increase with latitude up to the 40-45S zone. Average zonal drift rates lie between 10.3 cm/s and 16.4 cm/s. Zonally averaged drift rates of FGGE buoys are also at a maximum between 40 and 45S but are 15% …
Buoyancy Driven Planetary Flows, A. Colin De Verdière
Buoyancy Driven Planetary Flows, A. Colin De Verdière
Journal of Marine Research
The large scale flow patterns driven by surface buoyancy flux are obtained as numerical solutions of the planetary geostrophic equations to which dissipation and diffusion have been appended. Within a cartesian β plane, square box geometry, the solution is made of gyres of the largest possible size with western and northern intensification, anticyclonic above the main thermocline, cyclonic below. Within regions of heat gain, the classical equilibrium between downward eddy diffusion and vertical upwelling is approximately observed in the main thermocline. As a consequence the abyssal circulation (southern interior and western boundary current) behave according to the early Stommel-Arons' ideas. …
Recent Moored Current Meter And Sofar Float Observations In The Eastern Atlantic Near 32n, William J. Schmitz Jr., James F. Price, Philip L. Richardson
Recent Moored Current Meter And Sofar Float Observations In The Eastern Atlantic Near 32n, William J. Schmitz Jr., James F. Price, Philip L. Richardson
Journal of Marine Research
Basic flow statistics from the two-year deployment of a mooring in the vicinity of 32N and 24W are presented, along with intercomparisons between SOFAR float results concurrent with the first year of moored instrument data. Current-temperature meters were deployed in the main thermocline (∼500 m depth), in Mediterranean Water (1000–1100 m depth) along with the SOFAR floats, and at an abyssal (∼3000 m) level. The float and current meter averages over a common time interval are at least roughly the same, with eddy field intercomparisons being better than those for mean flow. Strong year-to-year variability in the time-averaged flow and …