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From People’S War To People’S Rule: Rebel Governance And The Foundations Of Inclusive Democracy, Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad Prillaman, Deepak Singhania, Apurva Subedi May 2026

From People’S War To People’S Rule: Rebel Governance And The Foundations Of Inclusive Democracy, Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad Prillaman, Deepak Singhania, Apurva Subedi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

How does wartime rebel governance shape post-conflict institutions? We study this in Nepal, where the Maoist People's War (1996–2006) dismantled a 240-year caste-based monarchy and ended with Maoists entering democratic politics. During the conflict, Maoists established sub-national “People’s Governments” that administered justice, collected taxes, and delivered local services. Using a spatial regression-discontinuity design, we show that exposure to People's Governments increased political knowledge and participation especially among historically marginalized indigenous groups (Janajatis). Exposure also reshaped party institutions and inter-party competition: candidate-selection committees in more exposed areas have 26 percent more Janajati members who, drawing on novel implicit-attitude data, exhibit less …

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Learning Through Imitation: An Experiment, Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz May 2026

Learning Through Imitation: An Experiment, Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We compare how well agents aggregate information in two repeated social learning environments. In the first setting agents have access to a public data set. In the second they have access to the same data, and also to the past actions of others. Despite the fact that actions contain no additional payoff-relevant information, and despite potential herd behavior, free riding and information overload issues, observing and imitating the actions of others leads agents to take the optimal action more often in the second setting. We also investigate the effect of group size, as well as a setting in which agents …

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Position: The Pre/Post-Training Boundary Should Govern Ip In Industry–Academia Ml Collaborations, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Nitzan Mekel-Bobrov May 2026

Position: The Pre/Post-Training Boundary Should Govern Ip In Industry–Academia Ml Collaborations, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Nitzan Mekel-Bobrov

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Industry–academia ML collaborations routinely fail to launch—not for scientific reasons, but because academics must publish while companies must protect models trained on proprietary data, and no standard contract framework resolves this tension. Because contracts are negotiated by legal departments alone, many apparent legal disputes are incentive misalignment problems that only scientists at the table can correctly diagnose. We propose PBOS (Protect-the-Business / Open-Source-the-Science), a community-adoptable contract template anchored to a single technically-grounded boundary: pre-training artifacts (architectures, training code, benchmarks, untrained weights) are open science; post-training artifacts (weights trained on proprietary data) are business IP. This boundary is technically meaningful, legally …

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Toward Healing And Justice: Building Equitable Relationships With Community Archives In El Salvador, Giada Ferrucci, Amanda Oliver, Tom Belton, Fernando Chacon Apr 2026

Toward Healing And Justice: Building Equitable Relationships With Community Archives In El Salvador, Giada Ferrucci, Amanda Oliver, Tom Belton, Fernando Chacon

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

The article examines an archival component of a larger research initiative. Surviving Memory in Postwar El Salvador is a multidisciplinary, cross-sector partnership. The overall methodology of the project is participatory and survivor-centered. It aims to document and commemorate the history of the Salvadoran Civil War (1980-1992) and prevent future violence. The component of the Surviving Memory partnership the authors describe in this article elucidates the crucial importance of community archival practices undertaken to support memory, healing, and justice in El Salvador. The authors are co-investigators and collaborators who have supported the work of community archivists in El Salvador through a …

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Reflections On Language And Translation: Toward A "Translation Turn" In Archival Studies, Fiorella Foscarini Apr 2026

Reflections On Language And Translation: Toward A "Translation Turn" In Archival Studies, Fiorella Foscarini

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

As the dominant lingua franca, the English language acts as an invisible, hegemonic force that exerts a strong influence over the framing of the global world. By using English unreflexively in research, education, and professional cross-cultural exchanges, we may unwittingly support unequal power structures, the homogenization of research, and the marginalization of traditions and knowledge systems based on languages other than English. In most cases where translation is involved, the translating act is treated as a fait accompli or a mere technical process, without acknowledging that exact equivalence is impossible to achieve, and that translation has important epistemological, methodological, …

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Teach And Care: How Community-Centered Archival Practice May Transform Education, Archives, And Community History, Thuy Vo Dang Apr 2026

Teach And Care: How Community-Centered Archival Practice May Transform Education, Archives, And Community History, Thuy Vo Dang

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

Academic librarians and archivists may work toward transforming education, archives, and community history (TEACH) through implementing a CARE approach. This includes a commitment to critical, liberatory, and person-centered praxis in archives co-creation and partnership with community organizations at the frontlines of documenting and preserving marginalized histories. Caring, in the archival context, begins with an acknowledgement of the harm mainstream archival institutions have caused for minoritized groups and then moving towards implementation of non-extractive, flexible and ethical partnership and/or stewardship of historical and cultural heritage materials. Caring also demands critical, rigorous, ongoing commitments to activation of the archival records by centering …

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The Dwellings Of Ybor City Project: Using Archival Recovery And Mapping To Examine Historical Erasure, Stephanie M. Mackin Apr 2026

The Dwellings Of Ybor City Project: Using Archival Recovery And Mapping To Examine Historical Erasure, Stephanie M. Mackin

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

This article examines how digital archives and spatial humanities can address historical erasure. It focuses on reconstructing the lost residential landscapes of Ybor City, a culturally significant Tampa, Florida, neighborhood. The area was transformed by mid-twentieth-century slum clearance and urban renewal. The Dwellings of Ybor City project uses archival theory, participatory ethics, and GIS-based storytelling to geolocate and reinterpret a Depression-era album called "Photographs Showing Dwellings in the Ybor Slum Area." By pairing digitized historical photographs with contemporary rephotography and mapping them to their original sites, the project restores visibility to homes and neighborhoods largely erased from both the physical …

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Planning To Preserve: Creating A Digital Preservation Roadmap At A Small Archive, Amanda Garfunkel Apr 2026

Planning To Preserve: Creating A Digital Preservation Roadmap At A Small Archive, Amanda Garfunkel

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

The preservation of electronic records according to best practices can seem overwhelming for archives with limited staff and resources. Creating a digital preservation implementation plan is a thoughtful exercise that allows archivists from a broad range of institutions to articulate achievable goals and create a roadmap towards a mature digital preservation program. Using tools that are flexible will help small repositories take the first step towards better stewardship of their electronic records. This article will discuss the creation of a digital preservation implementation plan at a small institution that includes activities such as surveys, benchmarking, and creating documentation. Practical steps …

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Search Costs, Intermediation, And Trade: Experimental Evidence From Ugandan Agricultural Markets, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Craig Mcintosh, Meredith Startz Apr 2026

Search Costs, Intermediation, And Trade: Experimental Evidence From Ugandan Agricultural Markets, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Craig Mcintosh, Meredith Startz

Discussion Papers

We study the large-scale experimental rollout of a platform that reduced search and matching frictions in Ugandan agricultural markets by connecting buyers and sellers. Market integration improved substantially: trade increased and price gaps fell. Interpreting the experiment through a trade model, we estimate treatment effects accounting for equilibrium changes that impact control markets. The intervention reduced fixed trade costs by 20% and increased trade flows between treated markets by 7% and across all markets by 1%. Scale economies shaped engagement:few farmers used the platform, but equilibrium price convergence from improved arbitrage by larger traders passed through to farm revenue.

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Sacrifice And Survival: Encountering Colonialism And The Bounds Of Christian Humanitarianism In The Cherokee Nation From 1819-1833, Avery Maples Apr 2026

Sacrifice And Survival: Encountering Colonialism And The Bounds Of Christian Humanitarianism In The Cherokee Nation From 1819-1833, Avery Maples

Kaplan Senior Essay Prize for Use of Library Special Collections

As Maggie Blackhawk illuminates in the 2023 foreword of the Harvard Law Review, the United States government has had free rein to legally subordinate Indian tribes throughout its history. As the first ever foreword to be written by a Native American woman, let alone on the topic of Indian borderland constitutionalism, Blackhawk explains the inextricable nature of federal Indian law from the development of American constitutional jurisprudence. This legacy of oppression has been intentionally crafted throughout nineteenth and twentieth-century litigation and forms the basis of federal Indian law. Supreme Court cases such as United States v. Kagama in 1886, Lone …

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“The Black Student Union Speaks”: Rebellion And Its Response In New Haven Public Schools, 1967-1970, Aden Gonzales Apr 2026

“The Black Student Union Speaks”: Rebellion And Its Response In New Haven Public Schools, 1967-1970, Aden Gonzales

Kaplan Senior Essay Prize for Use of Library Special Collections

This thesis studies a series of student uprisings that took place at Hillhouse High School in New Haven, Connecticut, during the 1967-1968 school year. Through contemporary news reports from the mainstream and underground press, correspondences with the mayor, police records, municipal reports, student-created ephemera, and interviews with then-students, a story emerges of a student rebellion which exposed long-festering problems within the school and forced a series of constructive reforms within the district. It is also a story about how, out of a fractured response to the student rebellion, a progressive teachers’ union was made. Finally, it is a story about …

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“At The Yale Women’S Center, Some Women Aren’T Welcome”: Reproductive Activism, Defining Feminism, And Determining Belonging In Women’S Spaces At Yale In 1987, Emi Glass Apr 2026

“At The Yale Women’S Center, Some Women Aren’T Welcome”: Reproductive Activism, Defining Feminism, And Determining Belonging In Women’S Spaces At Yale In 1987, Emi Glass

Kaplan Senior Essay Prize for Use of Library Special Collections

Tucked into the back pages of the Yale Daily News issue published on October 6, 1987 sits two opposing opinion pieces: one authored by members of the student organization Yale Students for Life (YSFL), and the other written by members of the Yale Women’s Center Coordinating Committee. While each article was addressed “to the editors,” these two groups were really in conversation with each other. The left-three quarters of the page features the piece written by YSFL, titled “Pro-life merits space at Women’s Center.” The right-hand side features a shorter piece written by the Women’s Center coordinating committee entitled “Center …

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Wage Gap Disclosure In The Tropics, Pablo Castro, Mayara Felix, Ieda Matavelli, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson Apr 2026

Wage Gap Disclosure In The Tropics, Pablo Castro, Mayara Felix, Ieda Matavelli, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We evaluate the effects of mandatory disclosures of firm-specific gender wage gaps in Brazil—the first developing country to enact a large-scale pay transparency law. The mandate took effect in 2023, automatically releasing to the public government-curated reports showing firm-specific gender wage gaps, separately by major occupational groups, for formal sector firms with 100 employees or more. Regression discontinuity estimates on outcomes one year after the release show that the mandated disclosures had no effects on the gender wage ratio, average wages for men or women, or the number of occupations within firms. We document that gender wage gaps persist in …

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How Wasteful Is Signaling?, Alex Frankel, Navin Kartik Apr 2026

How Wasteful Is Signaling?, Alex Frankel, Navin Kartik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Signaling is wasteful. But how wasteful? We study the fraction of surplus dissipated in a separating equilibrium. For isoelastic environments, this waste ratio has a simple formula: β/(β + σ), where β is the benefit elasticity (reward to higher perception) and σ is the elasticity of higher types’ relative cost advantage. The ratio is constant across types and is independent of other parameters, including convexity of cost in the signal. We show that the directional effects of β and σ on waste extend to non-isoelastic environments.

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Cross-Border Product Adoption: Individual Imports, Migrant Networks, And Domestic Retailers, David Argente, Esteban Méndez, Diana Van Patten Apr 2026

Cross-Border Product Adoption: Individual Imports, Migrant Networks, And Domestic Retailers, David Argente, Esteban Méndez, Diana Van Patten

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how new varieties enter markets and become locally available. We provide causal evidence of demand externalities that operate in two steps. First, information about new varieties diffuses directly through real-world social ties among consumers. Second, early purchases generate an indirect spillover to firms: local retailers learn from 'pioneer' consumers which new varieties are most likely to succeed and adjust their product offerings accordingly. We study this process in the context of direct-to-consumer imports. Using customs records on individuals' purchases matched to population-wide social networks, international migrant links, and retailer catchment areas, we document economically meaningful demand externalities. …

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Pay-Per-Crawl Pricing For Ai: The Lm-Tree Agent, Richard Archer, Soheil Ghili, Nima Haghpanah Apr 2026

Pay-Per-Crawl Pricing For Ai: The Lm-Tree Agent, Richard Archer, Soheil Ghili, Nima Haghpanah

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.

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Growth With New And Old Technologies, Bernardo Ribeiro Apr 2026

Growth With New And Old Technologies, Bernardo Ribeiro

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes a semi-endogenous growth theory that incorporates technology vintages and the endogenous evolution of multiple technological paradigms through innovation. It provides a characterization of both balanced growth equilibrium and transitional dynamics in an environment where new technologies continuously emerge. From a positive perspective, the model rationalizes two distinct empirical patterns. Using two centuries of US patent data, I first document that the age profile of patents has a pronounced hump shape: most contemporary patents build upon technologies that are between 50 and 100 years old. Second, this age profile has remained stable throughout the past century. From a …

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Soft-Floor Auctions: Harnessing Regret To Improve Efficiency And Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Kevin Breuer, Peter Crampton, Jack Hirsch, Yero S. Ndiaye, Axel Ockenfels Apr 2026

Soft-Floor Auctions: Harnessing Regret To Improve Efficiency And Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Kevin Breuer, Peter Crampton, Jack Hirsch, Yero S. Ndiaye, Axel Ockenfels

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A soft-floor auction asks bidders to accept an opening price to participate in a second-price auction. If no bidder accepts, lower bids are considered using first-price rules. Soft floors are common despite being irrelevant with standard assumptions. When bidders regret losing, soft-floor auctions are more efficient and profitable than standard optimal auctions. Revenue increases as bidders are inclined to accept the opening price to compete in a regret-free second-price auction. Efficiency improves because a soft floor allows for a lower hard reserve, reducing the frequency of no sale. Theory and experiment confirm these motivations from practice.

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Early Childcare Attendance And Cognitive Skills In Adolescence, Ingvild Almas, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir, Henrik Daae Zachrisson Apr 2026

Early Childcare Attendance And Cognitive Skills In Adolescence, Ingvild Almas, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir, Henrik Daae Zachrisson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the impact of early childcare on academic achievement for children in grade 5 and grade 9, based on a 2003 policy expansion that created quasi-random variation in slot availability for children aged 1–2. Starting childcare one year earlier increases math scores by 9.7% of a standard deviation (SD) in grade 9. Children whose mothers do not hold a high school diploma benefit by a significant 0.28% of a SD at grade 9, reducing the math achievement gap from children of higher-educated mothers by about one third. We also present evidence of strong improvements for children of immigrants.

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Capital Flows And The Global Collateral Cycle, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos, Gregory Phelan Apr 2026

Capital Flows And The Global Collateral Cycle, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos, Gregory Phelan

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Cross-country disparities in collateral technologies alone can account for large capital flows among mature economies, and allow the most advanced country to run a permanent trade deficit. When the collateral technology advantage is in creating negative beta (super safe) financial assets backed by positive beta assets, a Global Collateral Cycle emerges, with pro-cyclical gross and net flows and increased global asset price volatility. The supply of super safe assets is necessarily curtailed in downturns, providing a complementary (supply) channel to the flight to safety (demand) channel for explaining why US safe asset prices rise during crises.

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Training Language Models For Bilateral Trade With Private Information, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Xinyang Hu, Chuanhao Li, Zhuoran Yang Apr 2026

Training Language Models For Bilateral Trade With Private Information, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Xinyang Hu, Chuanhao Li, Zhuoran Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Bilateral bargaining under incomplete information provides a controlled testbed for evaluating large language model (LLM) agent capabilities. Bilateral trade demands individual rationality, strategic surplus maximization, and cooperation to realize gains from trade. We develop a structured bargaining environment in which LLMs negotiate via tool calls within an event-driven simulator, separating binding offers from natural-language messages to enable automated evaluation. The environment serves two purposes: as a benchmark for frontier models and as a training environment for open-weight models via reinforcement learning. In benchmark experiments, a round-robin tournament among five frontier models (15,000 negotiations) reveals that effective strategies implement price discrimination …

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From Conversations To Mechanisms: Aligning Advertiser Incentives In Ai-Powered Product Recommendations, Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul Dütting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu, Song Zuo Apr 2026

From Conversations To Mechanisms: Aligning Advertiser Incentives In Ai-Powered Product Recommendations, Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul Dütting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu, Song Zuo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the design of efficient dynamic recommendation systems, such as AI shopping assistants, in which a platform interacts with a user over multiple rounds to identify the most suitable product among those offered by advertisers. Advertisers have multi-dimensional private information: their private value from a purchase and private information about the user’s preferences. In each round, the platform displays recommendations; the user learns product characteristics of the shown items and then chooses whether to purchase, exit without purchasing, or submit a new query. These actions generate a stream of feedback—purchase, exit, and follow-up queries—that is informative about the user’s …

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Organizational Targets In General Equilibrium, Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis, Karthik Sastry Apr 2026

Organizational Targets In General Equilibrium, Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis, Karthik Sastry

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We build a general equilibrium model in which firms endogenously choose whether to target prices or quantities. We characterize how these choices of organizational targets depend on firms' uncertainty about microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. In equilibrium, the transmission of both nominal and real shocks hinges on firms' organizational targets. For example, under otherwise identical microfoundations, money is neutral under quantity targets and non-neutral under price targets. We further characterize how targets shape firms' strategic interactions and prove that the macroeconomic uncertainty that arises from each choice of targets reinforces incentives to choose that target. That is, choices of organizational targets …

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Lessons Learned: Ignazio Visco, Mercedes Cardona Mar 2026

Lessons Learned: Ignazio Visco, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Ignazio Visco served as deputy director general (the equivalent of deputy governor) of the Bank of Italy during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC) and as governor during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2011 (SDC). During his multidecade tenure at the bank, he held several positions and served under nine prime ministers before stepping down in 2023. Although Italy had the third-largest economy in the eurozone, its banking sector had little exposure to mortgages, which resulted in its being somewhat less impacted by the GFC than other countries. However, the SDC had a severe impact. With the assistance …

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Lessons Learned: Masaaki Shirakawa, Mercedes Cardona, Benjamin Hoffner Mar 2026

Lessons Learned: Masaaki Shirakawa, Mercedes Cardona, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

Masaaki Shirakawa became governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in 2008, after a long tenure at the central bank. His career spanned a series of significant crisis events in Japan’s economic history, including the economic boom in the 1980s, which was followed by a period of stagnation characterized by low GDP growth, multiple recessions, and persistent deflation. Shirakawa led the BOJ’s response during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). He also initiated the central bank’s contingency plan in response to the 2011 tsunami, earthquake, and Fukushima nuclear disaster before stepping down near the end of his term in …

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Lessons Learned: Eugen Rădulescu, Benjamin Hoffner Mar 2026

Lessons Learned: Eugen Rădulescu, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

Eugen Rădulescu has worked at the National Bank of Romania (NBR) since 1990 in various roles covering monetary policy, foreign exchange, and supervision. During his tenure, he contributed to the NBR’s work to fortify Romanian’s post-communist banking laws and the operational structure of its financial system to bring it up to the European standard, enabling Romania to join the European Union (EU) in 2007. Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC), Rădulescu was named director of the NBR’s Financial Stability Department and has served in this role until June 2023,when he became senior adviser to the governor of the …

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Lessons Learned: Christos Gortsos, Rosalind Z. Wiggins Mar 2026

Lessons Learned: Christos Gortsos, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Christos Gortsos has been a professor of law at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens since 2016 as well as a visiting professor of law at various other European institutions. Previously, he was a professor of international economic law and held other positions at Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences in Athens. He has taught and written extensively on European and international banking and financial law, capital markets regulation, and law and economics. From 2000 to 2017, he served as secretary of the Hellenic Bank Association. He advises the European Parliament on bank resolution and is vice president …

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Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft Mar 2026

Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Journal of Financial Crises

This article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, to be internally consistent. It explores features of the financial system that prevent the eradication of black swans. The main implication is the need to enhance the financial system’s resilience to withstand unforeseen events rather than focus on past crises. The article introduces a “resilience principle” for designing official-sector policies that can achieve such goals. The principle calls for policies that are adaptable, universal, and systemic. The article provides examples of policies with these features, assuming that the official sector is not better positioned …

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How The Fdic Sourced Crisis-Time Fed Funding Through The Failed Banks Of 2023, Steven Kelly Mar 2026

How The Fdic Sourced Crisis-Time Fed Funding Through The Failed Banks Of 2023, Steven Kelly

Journal of Financial Crises

During the Banking Crisis of 2023, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) had to contend with the liquidity demands of the second-, third-, and fourth-largest bank failures in US history, all in a compressed timeframe. Facing uncertainty over its liquidity needs, particularly if additional banks were to fail, and optics and political challenges over accessing its standing credit lines with the Treasury—which itself was brushing against the federal debt ceiling—the FDIC relied on two creative forms of financing itself. First, the agency kept open the Federal Reserve (Fed) loans taken on by the failed banks, eschewing its standard practice of …

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Delegation And Verification Under Ai, Lingxiao Huang, Wenyang Xiao, Nisheeth K. Vishnoi Mar 2026

Delegation And Verification Under Ai, Lingxiao Huang, Wenyang Xiao, Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

As AI systems enter institutional workflows, workers must decide whether to delegate task execution to AI and how much effort to invest in verifying AI outputs, while institutions evaluate workers using outcome-based standards that may misalign with workers’ private costs. We model delegation and verification as the solution to a rational worker’s optimization problem, and define worker quality by evaluating an institution-centered utility (distinct from the worker’s objective) at the resulting optimal action. We formally characterize optimal worker workflows and show that AI induces phase transitions, where arbitrarily small differences in verification ability lead to sharply different behaviors. As a …

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